Betting Talk

danshan thread

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  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    John1689 wrote: »
    How are you calculating these edges?

    Proof in the pudding homie. Of course you might think i cheating huh ;)
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I can tell you i been booted from more books by playing 4 team teasers than beating the line 70% of time. I have intrest in 2 books - so the same for the other side. Dont remember where these came from but the math checks -
    2 team -110 +ev 0.0025 ish 54ish win%
    (Dont remember all this exactly)
    3 team +180 +ev 0.1200 ish 40ish win%
    4team +300 +ev 0.16ish 30ish win%

    If your total player rating anywhere near the 3 and 4 team agv we watching your plays and moving accordingly.

    Btw im no mathematician or expert in ANYTHING lol...i do think im a jack in a few trades tho.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I told you Jets, dont take the enemy! how can you take that team, that is nearly communist! and I lucked out on Yankees I had Waguespack so I got a push!

    - - - Updated - - -
    I can tell you i been booted from more books by playing 4 team teasers than beating the line 70% of time. I have intrest in 2 books - so the same for the other side. Dont remember where these came from but the math checks -
    2 team -110 +ev 0.0025 ish 54ish win%
    (Dont remember all this exactly)
    3 team +180 +ev 0.1200 ish 40ish win%
    4team +300 +ev 0.16ish 30ish win%

    If your total player rating anywhere near the 3 and 4 team agv we watching your plays and moving accordingly.

    Btw im no mathematician or expert in ANYTHING lol...i do think im a jack in a few trades tho.

    1st off beating the line 70% of the time is super impressive
    2nd why do they boot you for correlations or what is the reason or do they give you one?
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Most dont like Wong Teasers...esp when they offering favorable odds. If you shooting blind on 6 point teasers the book smiling man.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I thank the Rams for the insight that Bortles still sucks so bad and Allen cant unseat him for 2nd spot and if you can get a couple million down against the Rams for the last 3 preseasons you should be a multi millionaire at the end

    - - - Updated - - -

    there literally might be 3 or 4 Rams players on the field that might at best be backups, it is crazy how much Mcvay hides
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    John1689 wrote: »
    How are you calculating these edges?

    John - my initial reply it was Dan haha you and i have never spoke so my bad for the funny reply. I hope my follow up answered your questions.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"><col width="58"><col width="79"><col width="140"></colgroup><tbody>
    8/11
    Minn
    Lynx
    159.5





    8/11
    Wash
    Mystics
    -8.5


    Toliver Hawkins


    8/11
    Seat
    Storm
    -3.5





    8/11
    New
    Liberty
    156





    8/11
    Chic
    Sky
    159


    Faulkner ???


    8/11
    Los
    Sparks
    -7.5





    8/11
    Conn
    Sun
    155





    8/11
    Las
    Aces
    -2.5




    </tbody>
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    I told you Jets, dont take the enemy! how can you take that team, that is nearly communist! and I lucked out on Yankees I had Waguespack so I got a push!

    - - - Updated - - -



    1st off beating the line 70% of the time is super impressive
    2nd why do they boot you for correlations or what is the reason or do they give you one?

    Teasers at proper odds thru proper #s - particularly 4tm @ +300 - will alert any pph and offshore (prolly not many OS with +300 anymore) with any type of player rating software Dan. First bot plays, IP address discrepancies then Syndicate correlation, then player rating.

    My last PPH(no affiliation) with odds criteria lasted week 3 NFL last year - zero straight bets wagered @ time - open teasers canceled - down a nickle - debt forgiven - action no longer welcomed. No reason given.

    - - - Updated - - -
    Teasers at proper odds thru proper #s - particularly 4tm @ +300 - will alert any pph and offshore (prolly not many OS with +300 anymore) with any type of player rating software Dan. First bot plays, IP address discrepancies then Syndicate correlation, then player rating.

    My last PPH(no affiliation) with odds criteria lasted week 3 NFL last year - zero straight bets wagered @ time - open teasers canceled - down a nickle - debt forgiven - action no longer welcomed. No reason given.

    TBH Teasers might be the only way to beat the F'ing NFL going forward bruh.......
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    BET
    8-11
    Sky Under 164
    Sun Under 160.5


    can get it at BOL at Under 161
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    MY CFL Lines for this week

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 99px"><col width="50"><col width="54"></colgroup><tbody>
    Lions

    53.5


    Blue Bombers

    -8


    Eskimos

    -9


    Argonauts

    50.5


    Tigercats

    -2


    Redblacks

    53


    Alouettes

    52


    Stampeders

    -9

    </tbody>

    - - - Updated - - -

    MY CFL Power rankings 8-11

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
    Team
    Power


    Blue Bombers
    -7.38


    Stampeders
    -4.34


    Eskimos
    -5.32


    Tiger Cats
    -5.31


    Roughriders
    -3.02


    Alouettes
    1.68


    Redblacks
    -0.53


    Argonauts
    5.15


    Lions
    -1.91

    </tbody>

    - - - Updated - - -

    My WNBA Power Rankings 8-11

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
    Team
    Rankings


    Mystics
    -9.83


    Aces
    -5.57


    Sun
    -5.23


    Sparks
    -3.49


    Mercury
    -1.58


    Storm
    -2.57


    Sky
    -0.67


    Lynx
    -2.33


    Fever
    1.10


    Wings
    1.75


    Liberty
    1.14


    Dream
    1.85

    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    BET
    8-11
    Sparks -5.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    My Horrible MLB lines for tomorrow of games with projected pitchers already

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 102px"><col width="158"><col width="122"><col width="60"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Starter
    Team
    My Line


    8/12
    Erick Fedde
    Nationals
    -145


    8/12
    Peter Lambert
    Rockies
    -129


    8/12
    Zach Plesac
    Indians
    -130


    8/12
    Dylan Cease
    White Sox
    185


    8/12
    Jose Suarez
    Angels
    -141

    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    0-3 good line movement and all losers! Sorry for anyone who tailed
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    rook wrote: »
    Oops,edit: missed 3 plays from danshan’s original thread — new count is 7-4...

    Well unfortunately 0-3 today, and the grand total for my cherry-picked danshan plays has moved to 7-7. Coward that I am, I will be retiring from WNBA for this season, maybe try again next summer! Good luck to you danshan, keep making money and figuring the numbers out.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    rook wrote: »
    Well unfortunately 0-3 today, and the grand total for my cherry-picked danshan plays has moved to 7-7. Coward that I am, I will be retiring from WNBA for this season, maybe try again next summer! Good luck to you danshan, keep making money and figuring the numbers out.

    Smart idea!
  • CajunHustle1979CajunHustle1979 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    Smart idea!

    F@ck that...keep grinding your edge homie. You will come out on top.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    oh I am up on the WNBA but 3 games that the line goes your way and you lose all 3 is heartbreaking. I will be back glad the WNBA has a day off we both need it!
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    F@ck that...keep grinding your edge homie. You will come out on top.

    I’m hoping to come out on top in nba next season, but I’m in over my head in WNBA. I think if I hunkered down and live-tracked every line score of every game along with half-time odds and results in WNBA like I do with nba, I might have chance to win. But these 4 months offseason are for me to rest, not work. That’s why I was hoping to just tail danshan; not very much work to read posted bets and input them...
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    What edge? He has no edge. Look at his projected mlb lines. He says they are his horrible projected lines based on the starting pitching. If its horrible, why are you sharing it then? To joke or troll around?


    I took at your lines and then looked at the opening and current lines at the moment and you beyond off in almost all the games. How in the world do you have that white sox line so low against houston. You really think houston on the road with greinke was only going to be -200 only?


    Are these lines what you project odds makers will open it at? Or what you believe is the true line? Thus if its odds are far enough from your odds, then you bet them?

    That cleveland line you projected is awful. You basically are saying they are a slight favorite on the road with these 2 pitchers on the mound?


    So based on these lines you have, you going to bet Washington, Cleveland, White Sox, Colorado because of how off the lines are at the moment compare to your projected lines? Such as you bet CWS because you have them +185 but they offer +244 which is over 60 cents better?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    rook wrote: »
    I’m hoping to come out on top in nba next season, but I’m in over my head in WNBA. I think if I hunkered down and live-tracked every line score of every game along with half-time odds and results in WNBA like I do with nba, I might have chance to win. But these 4 months offseason are for me to rest, not work. That’s why I was hoping to just tail danshan; not very much work to read posted bets and input them...


    WNBA Rook I am up big time this season if you trailed all my WNBA bets I posted you would be up pretty good, this 0-3 was a dagger though!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    @Donny

    "My Horrible MLB lines for tomorrow of games with projected pitchers already"
    I dont think anyone is betting my MLB lines and I rarely post an MLB pick. MY MLB is not ready for prime time

    Donny I kind of get from your writing that you might not have a firm grasp on what my goal is, so let me break it down for you

    I place bets at X and hope the line will move to you

    Example
    Bet Sparks -5.5 and it moved to 6.5 that is a winner
    Bet Sparks Under 164 it moved to 162.5 that is a small tiny winner but is a winner
    Bet Sun Under 160.5 and it moved to 159.5 that is a winner

    if you could repeat this process over a large sample size you will win, I would think it would be hard to find someone to dispute that

    my projected lines for today BEFORE ANY LINES CAME OUT

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"><col width="58"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    City
    Teams
    Mine
    Closing


    8/11
    Minn
    Lynx
    159.5
    160


    8/11
    Wash
    Mystics
    -8.5
    -7.5


    8/11
    Seat
    Storm
    -3.5
    -4


    8/11
    New
    Liberty
    156
    154


    8/11
    Chic
    Sky
    159
    162.5


    8/11
    Los
    Sparks
    -7.5
    -6.5


    8/11
    Conn
    Sun
    155
    159.5


    8/11
    Las
    Aces
    -2.5
    -2.5

    </tbody>


    I think this chart speaks for itself, but if you have any questions about it let me know
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    now look at which way they moved from open to close

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"><col width="58"><col width="79"><col width="140"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    City
    Teams
    Mine
    Closing
    Open
    Move my way?


    8/11
    Minn
    Lynx
    159.5
    160
    162
    good


    8/11
    Wash
    Mystics
    -8.5
    -7.5
    9
    good


    8/11
    Seat
    Storm
    -3.5
    -4
    -3.5
    NA


    8/11
    New
    Liberty
    156
    154
    155
    bad


    8/11
    Chic
    Sky
    159
    162.5
    163.5
    good


    8/11
    Los
    Sparks
    -7.5
    -6.5
    6
    good


    8/11
    Conn
    Sun
    155
    159.5
    161
    good


    8/11
    Las
    Aces
    -2.5
    -2.5
    -1
    good

    </tbody>
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    If no one is betting your mlb plays, why post it then?


    So what you are doing is trying to beat the closing line correct? What you just describe is beating the closing number regardless of what happens correct?


    You say if you could repeat this process over large sample size you win and find it hard for others to dispute it. Wasn't you the one that kept arguing with others about this a while ago? People kept saying if you beat closing line, you win... then you had to argue with tons of others on reasons why?


    The lines you posted for wnba, so those are the lines you have for those games. Next to it is the closing lines for the games. So when the lines open for wnba, do you bet every line that is off your projected lines by a good margin? Thus you bet any side that is off by 1 point or more? For total, at least 2 points or more?


    For MLB lines, those are what you think are the true lines similar to your wnba lines... is that correct? If so, there is no way anyone would have the white sox only +185 at closing. I don't know how anyone that be off this much. Right now the white sox is +244. your other lines are beyond off as well, of course lines could change a lot on gameday.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Conn vs sun. You put number at 155. Number opened at 161. So your numbers show the 161 was off by 6 points. So you obviously bet the under here at open correct? Closing line went down to 159.5 points. So you got 1.5 points of line value since you beat the closer by 1.5 points.


    So you are looking to beat the closing number correct?


    If this is the case, i will say a few things. Your mlb numbers are horrible. Also when you posted nba sides and totals, i remember your numbers were so off from not only the opening but closing lines.


    Let me ask you this. Would you be good at predicting what the oddsmakers will open as the side and totals for games? Or you don't care about that. You only care how far they off from your numbers... then you bet the difference?


    The reason i ask this is because when i saw nba lines get posted and your projected numbers, you were so off from their numbers. But this was not you predicting their opening or closing numbers right?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    I do not post MLB bets I post projected lines and labeled them as horrible because I am starting to work on them again and see if I can improve them I have gotten feedback on them before and that is why I post the MLB lines.

    yes I am trying to beat the closing line and I believe that is the best way for ME to win long term.

    of course not I am the repeat and never rinse CLV guy, I am world famous like Heinz ketchup for my CLV rants, JK. I am a 100% believer in line value (CLV)

    for WNBA I bet if the game is over 1.5 off on sides and 2.5 on totals because this is what I consider a generous margin of error on my model.

    lets peak at these horrible MLB #s and discuss what I have

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 102px"><col width="158"><col width="122"><col width="60"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Starter
    Team
    My Line


    8/12
    Erick Fedde
    Nationals
    -145


    8/12
    Peter Lambert
    Rockies
    -129


    8/12
    Zach Plesac
    Indians
    -130


    8/12
    Dylan Cease
    White Sox
    185


    8/12
    Jose Suarez
    Angels
    -141

    </tbody>

    first off Nats opened at -130 and its moved away from that and might even come back that is not that far off (15 cents) of open and dont forget one of the Nats best players was hurt today and wont be in the lineup tomorrow

    Rockies -110 and I had -129 that line could easily creep up toward that number and I am probably not real good on how bad the Rockies are right now in my ratings, so yes off

    Indians Opened at -110 and I have Indians -130, i think the issue here is my Red Sox badness meter is more recent than the market and this is probably an error on my part, def bad needs improvement

    White Sox +185 Greinke is new there and I probably dont have enough data to even be putting that number out and I obviously underestimated his value with a good team compared to the Dbacks, newness error at best

    Angels -141 its -144 and I think that is fair and a good line, stable guys same teams probably easiest for me to cap of these.


    Like Ynoa and Paxton same teams nothing weird I am probably gonna be close on that one

    I got -295 on that one, I think it should be closer

    - - - Updated - - -
    donny2 wrote: »
    Conn vs sun. You put number at 155. Number opened at 161. So your numbers show the 161 was off by 6 points. So you obviously bet the under here at open correct? Closing line went down to 159.5 points. So you got 1.5 points of line value since you beat the closer by 1.5 points.


    So you are looking to beat the closing number correct?


    If this is the case, i will say a few things. Your mlb numbers are horrible. Also when you posted nba sides and totals, i remember your numbers were so off from not only the opening but closing lines.


    Let me ask you this. Would you be good at predicting what the oddsmakers will open as the side and totals for games? Or you don't care about that. You only care how far they off from your numbers... then you bet the difference?


    The reason i ask this is because when i saw nba lines get posted and your projected numbers, you were so off from their numbers. But this was not you predicting their opening or closing numbers right?


    MY NBA projected lines are really good dude and not very far off the closing number. My goal in all sports is to predict the closing number. the projected lines I post in all sports are what I think the closing line will be.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    You kept saying your projected numbers are real good. You mean projected lines in nba compared to nba closing lines?


    If anyone is off by much in projecting nba closing lines in sides, they are a moron. For totals, much different. Still no one should be off that much when looking at nba totals either.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Greinke pitched one game at home with the astros. He was -280 i believe at home. There is no way he will come close to only -200 on the road against the white sox. This is really common sense.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    yes my NBA projected lines are really good. they are very close now if you go back to when I first started yeah they may be not so great but after some shaking and wiggling they got really good.

    again my goal is to get my projected numbers as close as the closing line cause this will show me where the market is wrong more times than not.

    We can argue NBA when NBA gets here, I believe my projected NBA sides and totals will be ALMOST as good as my WNBA but remember the NBA is a more efficient market and it is tougher to find holes. When the books put out an NBA number it has to be pretty darn good.

    - - - Updated - - -
    donny2 wrote: »
    You kept saying your projected numbers are real good. You mean projected lines in nba compared to nba closing lines?


    If anyone is off by much in projecting nba closing lines in sides, they are a moron. For totals, much different. Still no one should be off that much when looking at nba totals either.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Greinke pitched one game at home with the astros. He was -280 i believe at home. There is no way he will come close to only -200 on the road against the white sox. This is really common sense.

    I can agree with you 100% my Greinke number was bad, I will argue just to argue but again "my HORRIBLE" this alone should state this is not gold.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    Well of course number in nba will be more efficient than wnba.

    But many times they are off by quite a bit.


    Well I have seen you post nba numbers a while back. I will say i notice some of them were off by a lot. I honestly do not think you know what you are doing.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    180 to 220 is 3% off of the implied, not great but you are acting like I have them at +110 and they are at +220

    - - - Updated - - -
    donny2 wrote: »
    Well of course number in nba will be more efficient than wnba.

    But many times they are off by quite a bit.


    Well I have seen you post nba numbers a while back. I will say i notice some of them were off by a lot. I honestly do not think you know what you are doing.

    you see my bets, you see my projected lines, you see how close they are, how can you say that? I dont get it, if you think I am off be specific, tell me where and what?
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited August 2019
    When you used to post nba lines, i recalled certain games, you posted numbers that were beyond off. It was where common sense would say that number you put was off.


    I don't think you know what you are doing. That is what i think. If you are making errors in mlb, it does not surprise me if you make same mistakes in every other sport.


    Also, keep a record of your plays with win loss and plus or minus units. You say you don't care about that. That is what people will be looking at.
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