LOL. I was actually just trying to sucker you into a plus odds bet but you were too smart for me. I thought I might do a NASCAR thread but this thing is way out of hand already.
I am trying to determine if I have any skill or how much which is why I pick so many. I am basically following anything I think is 5 points off. The problem is that the variance is so extreme you really have no clue of whether you are winning or losing because of the variance.
Lines are finally down. I think I got up to 55 with 12 more with them putting stuff up and taking it down. I am pretty sure 5Dimes has a new guy doing NASCAR this year.
so you think that many of the Nascar lines are that wrong or you dont care just pick the winner?
I think they are not just wrong but way wrong. Expected ROI of at least 15% on this week's bets. However, there have been no computer models used in this analysis. No lines made. Just old fashioned handicapping circa 1985.
Either me or this 5Dimes new guy does not know what we are doing. He is employed to make lines so it must be me. In any case, variance will more likely determine the outcome of my bets more than the actual value. NASCAR is strictly a long-term proposition.
There is no way know. They would just have to read my analysis and decide for themselves. But if I was sharp, I would just post picks. Writeups are for squares.
I would estimate that variance on NASCAR is at least 4x of football and basketball are.
But if somebody was posting 20 units every year, you'd probably have a good idea.
When it comes to NASCAR though, people stay away from the head to heads. I like them because that is how my mind works. NASCAR bettors bet the to win odds for the race winners and have maybe two to five heads to heads per week from what I have seen.
Variance on NASCAR to win odds are probably not all that much because you only have 10 guys that can win a race which is probably why people like it better along with the fact that you do not need to know but the best race drivers.
It actually should have been worse. Something crazy happened there at the end and Bowyer moved up and got a couple on those. I am actually improving though. I was 1-7 last week.
I would bet those lines from now until the cows come home though.
It actually should have been worse. Something crazy happened there at the end and Bowyer moved up and got a couple on those. I am actually improving though. I was 1-7 last week.
I would bet those lines from now until the cows come home though.
I made a good living off of guys betting on their intuition. SMH
It's a good thing you could not get these lines at your PPH Ronbets.
Here is my predicament. I have now bet 74 races and In 72 of those races with about 600 bets I have produced 8 units of profit which is not all that impressive but nonetheless profitable and in 2 of those races I have lost 33 units going 22-71. I think I have been fairly unlucky so far. I have not had weeks similar on the upside so I still think I might be profitable long term.
Also Ronbets if you would be interested in booking my intuitive losing lines posted here on a fixed basis for the next 34 races, I would be highly interested.
It's a good thing you could not get these lines at your PPH Ronbets.
I get my #'s from Tobacco Road. I'm persona non grata @5Dimes.
Wait a minute, let me get this straight. You want me to book your action with my $$ and your lines? What was that line the old UofL coach Denny Crum used? "My name is Tucker not Sucker." My #'s subject to change.
I get my #'s from Tobacco Road. I'm persona non grata @5Dimes.
Wait a minute, let me get this straight. You want me to book your action with my $$ and your lines? What was that line the old UofL coach Denny Crum used? "My name is Tucker not Sucker." My #'s subject to change.
You are not a true sportsman Ronbets
No, I want you to book 5 Dimes lines that I bet. We have the lines. We know they lost. I will give you bets and you can do the math.
I will give you a 19-46 -22.8 portfolio of bets to book going forward at even odds with your only risk being that my intuition is right.
You have said you want to book my bets. You have even wanted to bet with me on a PPH line that was not available on Planet Earth except in your PPH account. I am offering you a sporting proposition.
Comments
I think they are not just wrong but way wrong. Expected ROI of at least 15% on this week's bets. However, there have been no computer models used in this analysis. No lines made. Just old fashioned handicapping circa 1985.
I would estimate that variance on NASCAR is at least 4x of football and basketball are.
But if somebody was posting 20 units every year, you'd probably have a good idea.
I would bet those lines from now until the cows come home though.
I made a good living off of guys betting on their intuition. SMH
Here is my predicament. I have now bet 74 races and In 72 of those races with about 600 bets I have produced 8 units of profit which is not all that impressive but nonetheless profitable and in 2 of those races I have lost 33 units going 22-71. I think I have been fairly unlucky so far. I have not had weeks similar on the upside so I still think I might be profitable long term.
I get my #'s from Tobacco Road. I'm persona non grata @5Dimes.
Wait a minute, let me get this straight. You want me to book your action with my $$ and your lines? What was that line the old UofL coach Denny Crum used? "My name is Tucker not Sucker." My #'s subject to change.
You are not a true sportsman Ronbets
No, I want you to book 5 Dimes lines that I bet. We have the lines. We know they lost. I will give you bets and you can do the math.
I will give you a 19-46 -22.8 portfolio of bets to book going forward at even odds with your only risk being that my intuition is right.
You have said you want to book my bets. You have even wanted to bet with me on a PPH line that was not available on Planet Earth except in your PPH account. I am offering you a sporting proposition.