ok my guess is if the line is around the +100 mark like it appears
the juice is like you said fricken -115 sides
I would guess you come out up units, now if you start with that to win at +4500 crap, then its just lotto
well that kind of vig implies to me they are not too sure on the quality of their lines, so if you had a good model or a good # per se, seems like there might be room to beat the market.
I cant imagine the bets are pouring in on these markets to sharpen them. I cant imagine there is a room of super genius modelers carving out holes in a low limit market like this. I am totally assuming all this but I would imagine they do this more to keep bettors from going somewhere else when they want to bet on racing
well that kind of vig implies to me they are not too sure on the quality of their lines, so if you had a good model or a good # per se, seems like there might be room to beat the market.
I cant imagine the bets are pouring in on these markets to sharpen them. I cant imagine there is a room of super genius modelers carving out holes in a low limit market like this. I am totally assuming all this but I would imagine they do this more to keep bettors from going somewhere else when they want to bet on racing
You assume correctly. The lines do not move unless they are really bad.
For those NASCAR racing fans, it turns out Clint Bowyer has not been too good at the Las Vegas track We shalll see if this extensive research is of value or if my unbiased seat-of-the-pants analysis comes out on top.
This is a really strange week. I've got 20 bets posted and 32 total. Normally you would not even have 20 prequalifying bets to make. They put out a huge number of lines. They don't even put out this many post qualifying most weeks.
This thread is already +EV but I am super leveraged on Bowyer and Bell and against the Chevys. I usualy get wiped out when I get out over my skis. If this thing goes according to pojection, it will be a wipeout. I might have predicted my own death in post 2.
What the heck 10 more bizzaro bets just for danshan that I just added.
Truex +140 vs. Harvick
Truex +125 vs. Busch
Jones +105 vs. KuBusch
Jones +145 vs. Bowman
Byron +145 vs. Bowman
Byron -105 vs. Busch
Custer +140 vs. Bell
Custer +105 vs. Buescher
Preece +115 vs. Dillon
KuBusch +120 vs. Bowman
My all-time record for bets in a week is 26 and I am now at 42 and not even to qualifying yet.
That's Ty Dillon vs Preece and Kurt Busch vs. Byron and I think I had Bowyer versus Kurt Busch. The other Dillon is Austin Dillon versus Bell if you look these things up.
I don't care if you look them up or not. The race results will be listed all over. I would not advise looking them up. I will do it for my own records but not this thread.
R40
Senior Member
Comments
As a note of caution, I have never watched a NASCAR race and am not able to start now.
Additionally, variance is off the charts in NASCAR so proceed with caution following hot streaks as you can be buried six feet under in no time.
Now let the handicapping begin.
Blaney +130 v. Larson
Larson has not shown a lot of speed in the past couple of years and is a little overrated here.
Blaney +110 v. Elliott
Elliott has also not been particularly fast and a bit overrated
Elliott +110 vs. Larson
Both being overrated so basically a coinflip. I would favor Elliott.
Bowyer +105 vs. Johnson
Johnson has shown no speed and should not be favored
Bowyer +100 v. Almirola
Bowyer is a better driver than Almirola.
Reddick +100 vs. Buescher
5Dimes is in love with Buescher but Reddick probably has the faster car and probably should be favored
Bell -115 vs. Dillon
Bell should definitely have the better car and is probably a better driver.
5Dimes not liking Bowyer at all. Bowman had a good run for a while last year but see no real reason for him to be favorite.
Bowyer +115 vs. Byron
Too much
Almirola +110 vs. Johnson
5Dimes apparently expecting the Chevys to really roll.
Bell +135 vs. Johnson
Custer +135 vs. Johnson
Don't know the first thing about Custer but pretty steep price here on Johnson
This Bell kid better be good or I'm getting buried.
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If 5Dimes is right about the Chevys this week, I will be quitting this thread.
if you dont model the numbers, how the heck you pick a faster car?
the juice is like you said fricken -115 sides
I would guess you come out up units, now if you start with that to win at +4500 crap, then its just lotto
I cant imagine the bets are pouring in on these markets to sharpen them. I cant imagine there is a room of super genius modelers carving out holes in a low limit market like this. I am totally assuming all this but I would imagine they do this more to keep bettors from going somewhere else when they want to bet on racing
You assume correctly. The lines do not move unless they are really bad.
Buescher +150 vs. Stenhouse
Weird lines.
Bowyer +145 vs. Busch
Truex +120 vs. Logano
Reddick +155 vs. Dibenedetto
Bell -110 vs. Dibenedetto
Pretty sure I am going to do a Ryan Newman.
great question..they all pretty much just copy each other Vegas pretty bad when it comes to nascar..dimes is ok
This thread is already +EV but I am super leveraged on Bowyer and Bell and against the Chevys. I usualy get wiped out when I get out over my skis. If this thing goes according to pojection, it will be a wipeout. I might have predicted my own death in post 2.
and the answer to this is?
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that is a pretty big site, can you be a hair more descriptive
Truex +140 vs. Harvick
Truex +125 vs. Busch
Jones +105 vs. KuBusch
Jones +145 vs. Bowman
Byron +145 vs. Bowman
Byron -105 vs. Busch
Custer +140 vs. Bell
Custer +105 vs. Buescher
Preece +115 vs. Dillon
KuBusch +120 vs. Bowman
My all-time record for bets in a week is 26 and I am now at 42 and not even to qualifying yet.