Eddie - I certainly followed your post, but I disagreed with some of it based on it's context (and maybe you meant it differently than I took it). I thought you were saying that it was a great spot to make a play because you could get Georgia State at -2.5 very early in the game when they were a +EV play at -6.5 (based on RAS's release) before the game started. And since -2.5 is better than -6.5, it's a good play. I've seen/heard the logic before applied to different sports and situations (ie, you'll read some squares say to just wait to halftime to play RAS stuff, and if you can get a better line at halftime than when the game started, then take it because it must be +EV, while ignoring what just happened on the field over 30 minutes). I think I even read something along these lines applying to baseball last week on TGF, with someone saying that when you want to play a big favorite, just wait an inning or two and if they are tied or behind, play them live and you'll get a better line.
Based on your Green Bay comment, it seems like instead you're saying that there is some type of market error on big favorites that get down early (ie, if you said that if GB is -7 and give up a pick 6 early, you'd take them 100 times out of 100 at -2.5 or something along those lines). If that's the case, then it's not what I was getting from your initial post. I don't study in-game stuff enough to know, maybe books are making some error and a team that's -7 that goes down a TD early should actually be -3 +100 instead of -2.5 or something along those lines. But that's not what I took from the Georgia State comment or the comment about playing Jeff's stuff live.
I apologize Tom. I have been a total Dick. It's been a terrible couple weeks and I shouldn't be involved in any type of posting during these periods.
Jeff - solid work, great asset to BT and glad u still take the time post.
In regards to live betting, I saw mentioned earlier that limits are very small? What are we talking about? Been speaking with a PPH recently and he mentioned $500 live limits, is that par the course? Lower, higher? Any insight appreciated.
Jeff - solid work, great asset to BT and glad u still take the time post.
In regards to live betting, I saw mentioned earlier that limits are very small? What are we talking about? Been speaking with a PPH recently and he mentioned $500 live limits, is that par the course? Lower, higher? Any insight appreciated.
All depends on the out. Email me if you want. Thanks for the kind words.
Comments
I apologize Tom. I have been a total Dick. It's been a terrible couple weeks and I shouldn't be involved in any type of posting during these periods.
No problem, hope it gets better.
In regards to live betting, I saw mentioned earlier that limits are very small? What are we talking about? Been speaking with a PPH recently and he mentioned $500 live limits, is that par the course? Lower, higher? Any insight appreciated.
All depends on the out. Email me if you want. Thanks for the kind words.