I won't speak on the matter again. Check the halftime line on that game. That +EV all day everyday
Of course, that would be ignoring everything that happened over the next 29:50 of the game. If I played Fordham +6.5 pre-game that night (or maybe it was the next night) against Army and that beat the halftime line, I wouldn't automatically assume that it was a great play based upon the halftime line. That 30 minutes of play changed a whole lot.
Of course, that would be ignoring everything that happened over the next 29:50 of the game. If I played Fordham +6.5 pre-game that night (or maybe it was the next night) against Army and that beat the halftime line, I wouldn't automatically assume that it was a great play based upon the halftime line. That 30 minutes of play changed a whole lot.
I give up. That's why it's called live and why you have to put in a little work and pay attention.
A few weeks ago someone posted that good info never gets posted on this board and that their upset because they can't learn anything here.
Well get your notepads out and start taking notes, because things do get revealed on this board weather it's out of pride or aggravation who really cares. Class is now dismissed
I'm all for deletion of Live Betting posts. Besides, seems like some are referring to apples and others oranges. However, let's keep the DrH kudos in place. Mr Congeniality has shown what he's got.
Btw, Buffetgambler, you'd be peaking a little farther north if you didn't fade Jeff on occassion.
Ok so not about whats +ev or not, but I don't get how its "so easy" to always get down live.
What if the play is georgia st -6.5 and they go up with 59:55 to play. It's immediately 7-0 and they are never up less than 7. You'd never get less than -6.5 live. And if you didn't get the ras release right at the time, you're not gonna get that game ever.
In his example he was saying Georgia St was losing 7-0 (not winning) at the beginning of the game after a pick-6 so he was able to get a line of Georgia St -2 at that point.
I have to give a better example. So even someone like Tommy can understand the value of live. College basketball Temple is playing Air Force the total is 120. In the first 5 min. both teams shoot over 70%. The adjusted total now is 140. That's a brand-new total as Tommy mentioned you have no ideal what's going to take place the rest of the game. Now if you believe that both teams will continue to shoot 70% for the rest of the game then as Tommy would do you would play the over. Where as I on the other hand would have money on the under. Making a wager that the hot shooting would not continue. I would do this even not knowing what would take place the rest of the game. Basically understanding that there is ebe and flow involved in sports wagering.
I have to give a better example. So even someone like Tommy can understand the value of live. College basketball Temple is playing Air Force the total is 120. In the first 5 min. both teams shoot over 70%. The adjusted total now is 140. That's a brand-new total as Tommy mentioned you have no ideal what's going to take place the rest of the game. Now if you believe that both teams will continue to shoot 70% for the rest of the game then as Tommy would do you would play the over. Where as I on the other hand would have money on the under. Making a wager that the hot shooting would not continue. I would do this even not knowing what would take place the rest of the game. Basically understanding that there is ebe and flow involved in sports wagering.
Live wagering has brutal over-adjustments based on normal short term fluctuations. It was as if Golfer was making the lines. Basktball Team A -7, down 12-2 at the 1st timeout, live line PK. Thank you.
Jake, I don't think you understood Tommy's original point/question. Your initial post about taking Ed's 2u play after the pick6 made it sound (although I doubt it's what you meant) like you felt the new line automatically had value b/c it was better than the pregame released line which was assumed to be +EV. I believe that's what Tommy was questioning.
Your more recent post about using analysis of game flow, stats, etc. in hoops better explains the edge you feel you have in live wagering.
I'm sure Tommy will chime in, but I'm pretty sure that's what he meant and this was mostly a misunderstanding of each other.
As an aside, no need for the snarky, condescending remark. Not only was it uncalled for, but I'm certain Tommy is more than capable of following your posts once you explain them fully.
Jake, I don't think you understood Tommy's original point/question. Your initial post about taking Ed's 2u play after the pick6 made it sound (although I doubt it's what you meant) like you felt the new line automatically had value b/c it was better than the pregame released line which was assumed to be +EV. I believe that's what Tommy was questioning.
Your more recent post about using analysis of game flow, stats, etc. in hoops better explains the edge you feel you have in live wagering.
I'm sure Tommy will chime in, but I'm pretty sure that's what he meant and this was mostly a misunderstanding of each other.
As an aside, no need for the snarky, condescending remark. Not only was it uncalled for, but I'm certain Tommy is more than capable of following your posts once you explain them fully.
Believe it or not goats. The concept of the two are the same. One play does not change my opinion of the outcome. I know there are still 59 min. of unknown football. I actually pray for those type of situations. If the Green Bay Packers throw a pick six the first play the game as seven point favorites and now I have to Lay a field go or less. Even not knowing what will happen the rest of the game I will play that game 100 out of 100 times
As an aside, no need for the snarky, condescending remark. Not only was it uncalled for, but I'm certain Tommy is more than capable of following your posts once you explain them fully.
No he didn't understand the first post. And if he didn't understand the first post he won't understand the second post. Adjusted totals and sides are very confusing with the unknowns. And from your post you had no understanding of it either. -2.5 had a lot of value at that time the game.
As an aside, no need for the snarky, condescending remark. Not only was it uncalled for, but I'm certain Tommy is more than capable of following your posts once you explain them fully.
No he didn't understand the first post. And if he didn't understand the first post he won't understand the second post. Adjusted totals and sides are very confusing with the unknowns. And from your post you had no understanding of it either. -2.5 had a lot of value at that time the game.
I have no interest in a debate but you need to lose the attitude. If a poster doesn't understand something you post that does not give you the right to be rude and condescending. Either try to help that poster understand in a respectable manner or let it go.
I have no interest in a debate but you need to lose the attitude. If a poster doesn't understand something you post that does not give you the right to be rude and condescending. Either try to help that poster understand in a respectable manner or let it go.
I apologize for my rude condescending behavior. Thou shalt not let it happen again.
Live wagering has brutal over-adjustments based on normal short term fluctuations. It was as if Golfer was making the lines. Basktball Team A -7, down 12-2 at the 1st timeout, live line PK. Thank you.
A math model in live wagering. Will never be able to take into account momentum and perception of what's taking place on the court or field.
A math model in live wagering. Will never be able to take into account momentum and perception of what's taking place on the court or field.
A math model can take everything into account, some things are more difficult then others.No model is perfect or required to be perfect to be a advanage player, your model only has to be better then your Bookies model/line.
No he didn't understand the first post. And if he didn't understand the first post he won't understand the second post. Adjusted totals and sides are very confusing with the unknowns. And from your post you had no understanding of it either. -2.5 had a lot of value at that time the game.
Eddie - I certainly followed your post, but I disagreed with some of it based on it's context (and maybe you meant it differently than I took it). I thought you were saying that it was a great spot to make a play because you could get Georgia State at -2.5 very early in the game when they were a +EV play at -6.5 (based on RAS's release) before the game started. And since -2.5 is better than -6.5, it's a good play. I've seen/heard the logic before applied to different sports and situations (ie, you'll read some squares say to just wait to halftime to play RAS stuff, and if you can get a better line at halftime than when the game started, then take it because it must be +EV, while ignoring what just happened on the field over 30 minutes). I think I even read something along these lines applying to baseball last week on TGF, with someone saying that when you want to play a big favorite, just wait an inning or two and if they are tied or behind, play them live and you'll get a better line.
Based on your Green Bay comment, it seems like instead you're saying that there is some type of market error on big favorites that get down early (ie, if you said that if GB is -7 and give up a pick 6 early, you'd take them 100 times out of 100 at -2.5 or something along those lines). If that's the case, then it's not what I was getting from your initial post. I don't study in-game stuff enough to know, maybe books are making some error and a team that's -7 that goes down a TD early should actually be -3 +100 instead of -2.5 or something along those lines. But that's not what I took from the Georgia State comment or the comment about playing Jeff's stuff live.
Comments
Of course, that would be ignoring everything that happened over the next 29:50 of the game. If I played Fordham +6.5 pre-game that night (or maybe it was the next night) against Army and that beat the halftime line, I wouldn't automatically assume that it was a great play based upon the halftime line. That 30 minutes of play changed a whole lot.
Well get your notepads out and start taking notes, because things do get revealed on this board weather it's out of pride or aggravation who really cares. Class is now dismissed
Btw, Buffetgambler, you'd be peaking a little farther north if you didn't fade Jeff on occassion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjibEkDoXQc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruhFmBrl4GM
Thanks!
About 80% are o/n.
Game day releases were 40-23, +16.94 fwiw.
What if the play is georgia st -6.5 and they go up with 59:55 to play. It's immediately 7-0 and they are never up less than 7. You'd never get less than -6.5 live. And if you didn't get the ras release right at the time, you're not gonna get that game ever.
This was in response to capthook's post above.
Live wagering has brutal over-adjustments based on normal short term fluctuations. It was as if Golfer was making the lines. Basktball Team A -7, down 12-2 at the 1st timeout, live line PK. Thank you.
Your more recent post about using analysis of game flow, stats, etc. in hoops better explains the edge you feel you have in live wagering.
I'm sure Tommy will chime in, but I'm pretty sure that's what he meant and this was mostly a misunderstanding of each other.
As an aside, no need for the snarky, condescending remark. Not only was it uncalled for, but I'm certain Tommy is more than capable of following your posts once you explain them fully.
No he didn't understand the first post. And if he didn't understand the first post he won't understand the second post. Adjusted totals and sides are very confusing with the unknowns. And from your post you had no understanding of it either. -2.5 had a lot of value at that time the game.
I have no interest in a debate but you need to lose the attitude. If a poster doesn't understand something you post that does not give you the right to be rude and condescending. Either try to help that poster understand in a respectable manner or let it go.
A math model can take everything into account, some things are more difficult then others.No model is perfect or required to be perfect to be a advanage player, your model only has to be better then your Bookies model/line.
That was a bold statement I made. There are still some holes left to exploit in live wagering. It gets tougher year after year.
Eddie - I certainly followed your post, but I disagreed with some of it based on it's context (and maybe you meant it differently than I took it). I thought you were saying that it was a great spot to make a play because you could get Georgia State at -2.5 very early in the game when they were a +EV play at -6.5 (based on RAS's release) before the game started. And since -2.5 is better than -6.5, it's a good play. I've seen/heard the logic before applied to different sports and situations (ie, you'll read some squares say to just wait to halftime to play RAS stuff, and if you can get a better line at halftime than when the game started, then take it because it must be +EV, while ignoring what just happened on the field over 30 minutes). I think I even read something along these lines applying to baseball last week on TGF, with someone saying that when you want to play a big favorite, just wait an inning or two and if they are tied or behind, play them live and you'll get a better line.
Based on your Green Bay comment, it seems like instead you're saying that there is some type of market error on big favorites that get down early (ie, if you said that if GB is -7 and give up a pick 6 early, you'd take them 100 times out of 100 at -2.5 or something along those lines). If that's the case, then it's not what I was getting from your initial post. I don't study in-game stuff enough to know, maybe books are making some error and a team that's -7 that goes down a TD early should actually be -3 +100 instead of -2.5 or something along those lines. But that's not what I took from the Georgia State comment or the comment about playing Jeff's stuff live.