DrH final MLB results 2014-15 WOW!

Ronbets

Behind his non- tolerating personality is a guy that lets his #s do the talking. I ain't no shill folks. This is not variance:

2015: 199-162, +30.89 units
2014: 284-246, +45.84 units

MLB TOTAL: 483-408, +76.73 units

buckeyes

Tremendous season Doc congrats!

dtrain11

Top-tier service and results. Congrats!

kane

Outstanding work Jeff, very impressive numbers

golfer1000

Congrats H! Solid work!

Are you stopping early to prep for cbb?

bcl4

Ronbets wrote: »

Behind his non- tolerating personality

Personally I think he's been a little over-tolerant recently, not sure I like it.

Nice season Jeff

Dr. H

Thanks for the kind words, all. It's been a fun couple of seasons!

Golfer - It's more for personal reasons.

originalokie

H, hope all the family is well
Take care of everyone
And
One hell of a job!!!
BEST

Old-Timer

Excellent Work, it just doesn't get any better.

lumpy19

Less than 900 plays, it's a hot streak, not impressed

jakenhl

Old-Timer wrote: »

Excellent Work, it just doesn't get any better.

if you don't mind putting in the time. You can even have a better season playing his plays live. I did that for the second half of the season. Strictly getting the plays from the release page for grading purposes. The same is true for anything that is available live. College basketball, NFL, NBA, college football anything they put a live line on can be used in most cases to get the best of the line. The only sport right now that I cannot get a decent line on using live is hockey. It amazes me that some of the sharpest out there put so little time into live wagering. There's a reason why so few books offer live wagering on every game. It's not because they don't feel like it. It's beatable

RightAngle

I take full credit for not endorsing him and promoting him on BT.

Ronbets

jakenhl wrote: »

It amazes me that some of the sharpest out there put so little time into live wagering. There's a reason why so few books offer live wagering on every game. It's not because they don't feel like it. It's beatable[/QUOTE/

Agree Jake, it is beatable. During actual in-progress betting, i.e. between pitches, I haven't found a shop that takes more than a dollar a #. Try getting on/off a position with those limits? Even then, I feel(?) I've been freerolled a few times.

underwraps

I've been freerolled a few times.

Same here at BOL Live. Excuses like, "oh we had a wrong line at that moment" and all sorts of other BS

jakenhl

Ronbets wrote: »

jakenhl wrote: »

It amazes me that some of the sharpest out there put so little time into live wagering. There's a reason why so few books offer live wagering on every game. It's not because they don't feel like it. It's beatable[/QUOTE/

Agree Jake, it is beatable. During actual in-progress betting, i.e. between pitches, I haven't found a shop that takes more than a dollar a #. Try getting on/off a position with those limits? Even then, I feel(?) I've been freerolled a few times.

Obviously I am not talking about each and every play. I do consider his numbers strong and make a great starting point for live wagering. I personally can't get his numbers on the overnight releases so I work with them the best I can. As far as sports like the NBA, NFL and select College basketball and football I have no problems getting on and off numbers. If you can't use sharp numbers in football and basketball to your advantage in live I don't know what to say. An example Ed's 2 unit play had a pick six on the first play of the game. I was able to get -2 on that play for a dime. The play did go on to lose but it is a very strong example of using live to your advantage.

Ronbets

I hear what u r saying. To each his own methods. Either way, the vig is strong. I play in-progress differently. Basically it's what I see/saw, field position %, offensive/defensive line play. IMO, watching in-play has a distinct advantage over pre-game analysis.

jakenhl

Ronbets wrote: »

I hear what u r saying. To each his own methods. Either way, the vig is strong. I play in-progress differently. Basically it's what I see/saw, field position %, offensive/defensive line play. IMO, watching in-play has a distinct advantage over pre-game analysis.

That is exactly where you start at is watching the play in progress. My whole setup is based on that. I am working with 8 TVs, 8 DVRs connected to both Dish and DTV. From there, I look into second teams positions in the line up, offensive and defensive coordinators, knowing the tendencies of coaches to make adjustments, etc., etc.

There is not an edge I do not try to find when it comes to live wagering. While other people create models, I use their work as the starting point and implement it into my live wagering and from there the methods are endless. You are constantly making adjustments. Just three years ago I began to get killed at live wagering and was able to make certain adjustments to do quite well with it.

lumpy19

jakenhl wrote: »

That is exactly where you start at is watching the play in progress. My whole setup is based on that. I am working with 8 TVs, 8 DVRs connected to both Dish and DTV. From there, I look into second teams positions in the line up, offensive and defensive coordinators, knowing the tendencies of coaches to make adjustments, etc., etc.

There is not an edge I do not try to find when it comes to live wagering. While other people create models, I use their work as the starting point and implement it into my live wagering and from there the methods are endless. You are constantly making adjustments. Just three years ago I began to get killed at live wagering and was able to make certain adjustments to do quite well with it.

Cut out the DVR's, they usually cause a few seconds of lag

jakenhl

lumpy19 wrote: »

Cut out the DVR's, they usually cause a few seconds of lag

That's not even bad compared to dish.I have it for pac 12.Its a good 5 seconds behind dtv

Ronbets

jakenhl wrote: »

That is exactly where you start at is watching the play in progress. My whole setup is based on that. I am working with 8 TVs, 8 DVRs connected to both Dish and DTV. From there, I look into second teams positions in the line up, offensive and defensive coordinators, knowing the tendencies of coaches to make adjustments, etc., etc.

I get less than 30 seconds to get down live. With your set up I'd need a small staff.

sosoangry

Ronbets wrote: »

Behind his non- tolerating personality is a guy that lets his #s do the talking. I ain't no shill folks. This is not variance:

2015: 199-162, +30.89 units
2014: 284-246, +45.84 units

MLB TOTAL: 483-408, +76.73 units

Bravo! Assuming my calculations are correct, it's approximately +38 units for about 450 plays per season, or about 8.4% ROI, yes?

jakenhl

sosoangry wrote: »

Bravo! Assuming my calculations are correct, it's approximately +38 units for about 450 plays per season, or about 8.4% ROI, yes?[/QUOTE

jakenhl

jakenhl wrote: »

sosoangry wrote: »

Bravo! Assuming my calculations are correct, it's approximately +38 units for about 450 plays per season, or about 8.4% ROI, yes?[/QUOTE

Sorry for the last post. That should've included great work jeff. Looking forward your college basketball. I believe will experience a little positive variance there.

TommyL

jakenhl wrote: »

Obviously I am not talking about each and every play. I do consider his numbers strong and make a great starting point for live wagering. I personally can't get his numbers on the overnight releases so I work with them the best I can. As far as sports like the NBA, NFL and select College basketball and football I have no problems getting on and off numbers. If you can't use sharp numbers in football and basketball to your advantage in live I don't know what to say. An example Ed's 2 unit play had a pick six on the first play of the game. I was able to get -2 on that play for a dime. The play did go on to lose but it is a very strong example of using live to your advantage.

Is that really using live betting to your advantage though (the part in bold)? Just because Georgia State -6.5 would be considered a +EV play before the game started, doesn't mean that it's a +EV play at -2 when there is 59:45 left in the game, does it? You're already looking at a 7-0 hole. Maybe it was in this specific situation, I don't know, but I don't exactly agree with the whole "just play stuff live and you can get better lines" logic, since you'll also potentially be looking at a different situation than when the game started. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that live betting can't be exploited, but I didn't see how this is an example of it.

Dr. H

I for one would prefer that we don't discuss what is and isn't +EV in the live market so openly.

jakenhl

TommyL wrote: »

Is that really using live betting to your advantage though (the part in bold)? Just because Georgia State -6.5 would be considered a +EV play before the game started, doesn't mean that it's a +EV play at -2 when there is 59:45 left in the game, does it? You're already looking at a 7-0 hole. Maybe it was in this specific situation, I don't know, but I don't exactly agree with the whole "just play stuff live and you can get better lines" logic, since you'll also potentially be looking at a different situation than when the game started. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that live betting can't be exploited, but I didn't see how this is an example of it.

So Tommy I would assume that getting the best of the line live before they post the second half line on a consistent basis you would consider that not to be +EV. This isn't on an individual play basis. Like with anything it's over many plays.

TommyL

jakenhl wrote: »

So Tommy I would assume that getting the best of the line live before they post the second half line on a consistent basis you would consider that not to be +EV. This isn't on an individual play basis. Like with anything it's over many plays.

I don't see how this comment really relates to my post.

But to answer your question...I'd expect it to be +EV if you could beat the 2nd half line consistently with a live wager at the end of 1st half. I just think you're talking about something different than the direction I was heading.

Upsilonman

Nice work H!

jakenhl

TommyL wrote: »

I don't see how this comment really relates to my post.

But to answer your question...I'd expect it to be +EV if you could beat the 2nd half line consistently with a live wager at the end of 1st half. I just think you're talking about something different than the direction I was heading.

I won't speak on the matter again. Check the halftime line on that game. That +EV all day everyday

Old-Timer

jakenhl wrote: »

if you don't mind putting in the time. You can even have a better season playing his plays live. I did that for the second half of the season. Strictly getting the plays from the release page for grading purposes. The same is true for anything that is available live. College basketball, NFL, NBA, college football anything they put a live line on can be used in most cases to get the best of the line. The only sport right now that I cannot get a decent line on using live is hockey. It amazes me that some of the sharpest out there put so little time into live wagering. There's a reason why so few books offer live wagering on every game. It's not because they don't feel like it. It's beatable

I agree and have a few LB outs. The two best sports for live betting is baseball and basketball (NBA) I've been LB since Wsex came out with it calling it contracts in the 90's and killed them in baseball it was that easy. I thing part of the reason they went BR was LB. They do it differently now but it's very beatable and I have nothing but time. That's why I don't post many games 1/2 Times and Live IMO is for me.

JMO but you should get my email address if you want to discuss something like this. Actually I'm sorry I answered there's money in play here.

Old-Timer

Dr. H wrote: »

I for one would prefer that we don't discuss what is and isn't +EV in the live market so openly.

My Apologizes I wasn't thinking.