Here's an example
The Cardinals are 9-0 SU as a home favorite when they are off two losses in which they never led The SDQL Text is:
team=Cardinals and HF and p:BL=0 and p:L and pp:BL=0 and pp:L and date>=20150909
The sample size was 9 games going back to 2015 and yesterday was the first play of this trend of the year and guess what it lost. The only thing I have to say and I've spent time with the Meyer brothers (Very Smart Brothers) is that they tell you it's a trend and use it as a tool in your tool box. Not in those words but the same meaning. what your doing is posting and possibly playing a trend that has very little sample size or if it has a large sample size take away all the years prior to say 2015 and I'll bet that 90% of them show nothing. Play KISS and you'll enjoy sports and sports betting more. There's no Holy grail they just want you to believe that.
OT, i believe you are a mod here. Do you really think danshan has some sophisticated model and sdql system? What surprises me is there seem to be 1 or 2 posters in his other thread which really takes him seriously.
your sdql must have
enough games minimum 1000
make sense not he plays well on tuesdays
must be able to be back tested against different scenarios . I test my sdql against specific months, seasons and overall to see if the ROI is consistent and of course it is. the 50 games I have now is no where near a large enough sample size for anyone to say its good or bad just like the winner of 4 units last year was 40 or 50 games that means nothing
Not taking sides on anything , but danshan has helped me make my model better , and ive been doing this a long time....this sdql ,which i dont have a clue about proved that i was missing something in my model and he proved it for me,thanks again danshan. My model got a little better, to say he doesnt know anything , I wish i didnt know as much as this guy knows.
I am actually trying to explain my ideas of how this works to this guy and I am not claiming to have any special skills as the more I learn the dumber I feel here. I came into this forum with a big attitude and ran my mouth. I was easily offended and that is not an excuse but it is what ruined my relationship here with most people. I am now trying to shut up with the opinions and just the facts now. I am removing the word always never and sure from my BT vocabulary because I am learning so much. I do believe the sdql has value but more to debunk and to see if certain things actually mean something. it is a tool not a system!
your sdql must have
enough games minimum 1000
make sense not he plays well on tuesdays
must be able to be back tested against different scenarios . I test my sdql against specific months, seasons and overall to see if the ROI is consistent and of course it is. the 50 games I have now is no where near a large enough sample size for anyone to say its good or bad just like the winner of 4 units last year was 40 or 50 games that means nothing
But the ones with that sample size may have been used at some point but not bet based solely on that trend. I see many SDQL's with 1000's of games and I wouldn't give them a second thought. The Cubs record is 19-1 when Rizzo strikes out 3x's the prior game what is that and why would you ever consider thinking about that. You stress way to much. Asking questions is okay but then you argue when someone takes the time to try and answer your questions. Chill you'll see things more clearly.
Ot come on dude, I am chill and I am not arguing with anyone. I am trying to explain being cordial and taking my time to share the limited insight I have.
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hey Donny you can now see my lines compared to the opening lines for tomorrows games that are coming out now and you can see I have an idea of what I am doing with setting lines. I know OT wont agree because he has a hardfast rule that he cannot or any of his BT friends compliment me in anyway and thats ok with me, the silence speaks loud enough! thanks to all!
Not taking sides on anything , but danshan has helped me make my model better , and ive been doing this a long time....this sdql ,which i dont have a clue about proved that i was missing something in my model and he proved it for me,thanks again danshan. My model got a little better, to say he doesnt know anything , I wish i didnt know as much as this guy knows.
I'm not saying he isn't a smart man but IMO he's not seeing the SDQL for what it is a tout service that gives you access to a database with mostly useless information. There is value in the part of finding Data that you want and backtrack simply by hitting a few keys which is very useful. But playing games simply off a trend isn't going to pay the rent.
having a way to produce your own lines is optimal... but to me it has to be time tested over a few years and once it is established you should
not deviate from it because of any sdql model, kelly criterion or expected utility theories... they should not have an effect on the expected/generated line number that you produce... the model however can be adjusted over time though, and i have been trying to adjust mine currently because of the way that the tampa bay team is playing ball right now and maybe other teams in the future but it will be about the number(like ot said) for me and not the query or crtierion... just my way i quess... but like jets i have been following all these threads and honestly like dans input on the lines as far as what people say the bet on a forum has no relevance to me.... everybody has a "big one" on the net !!!!
totally agree with OT , and with that said , ive used something for my model ,even though it was a very little part of my model that danshan showed me was not even break even, we added something to it and it turned out to be 57% over a long long sample of games, I could care less if anyone would think its important , I think its important , and when over a course of time it proved 57% winners at a dog price i would think it my be important to my model .
OT gonna feel way over 100 here in new york , we are catching up to ya
that tampa bay thing is messing wiith me big time,I depend so much on starting pitchers that I am not even sure what or how it would work if that changed. I think it is interesting at the minimum. I think one of the really cool things about baseball is the tradition. I hope and hate none of that changes. I would hate to see the MLB go to something different than a traditional starter and a few MR and a CL system but hey maybe change is good! I mean think of the excitement of having a game 2-2 bases loaded top of the 4th and boom here comes wild thing with the theme music and everything he strikes out 2 guys and next inning out comes slideball Jeff with some cool techno music! I bet Jets and OT would love that LOL
Ot come on dude, I am chill and I am not arguing with anyone. I am trying to explain being cordial and taking my time to share the limited insight I have.
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hey Donny you can now see my lines compared to the opening lines for tomorrows games that are coming out now and you can see I have an idea of what I am doing with setting lines. I know OT wont agree because he has a hardfast rule that he cannot or any of his BT friends compliment me in anyway and thats ok with me, the silence speaks loud enough! thanks to all!
I don't know you how can I dislike you. Trust me you got that wrong . Looking for compliments your doing a very good job with Beaver Ball and after a couple of 100 bets if it's still good I will compliment you loud and clear. But I'm serious there are places that no matter what you do they say great job, Good Luck every day no matter what your doing this is not that place. Anyway I'll tell you a short story about the hand shake . Every day I would walk through the pits and say good morning to all my employees and tell them have a good shift and keep moving. every morning without fail the same few guys would shake my hand do you think after a while it became meaningless. Do you really need to be complimented here? I hope I'm making sense using that analogy.
its not complimented but when everything is negative, it means OT's opinion about me is useless because there is no frame of reference. even I cant do everything wrong and if all you do is say I do everything wrong how does that help me or anyone else? If your handshakes are sincere and do mean something to you it will mean something to them, you are a well respected member here and your words do mean something to me and most others!
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and BTW I hate ballless ball after that 5 possessions 20 point lead not one foul in the final minute crap I seen the other night.
had the ball 5 times 18 point lead and they shot 5 times and were never fouled in the final minute, please sabermetric that to me. that would be like in the NFL up by 10, have the ball with a minute left and throw 3 incomplete passes and punt.
The point of that story is a thank you and your handshake once it a while is meaningful whens it's done to often or being asked for it loses is sincerity. So with that said thank you for posting Beaver Ball and continued success.
and Donny anytime any questions dude I eat breathe and sleep sports betting and discussing it. Please feel free anytime to comment, question or criticize it is all appreciated and I will reply asap!
donny got set off by your winning 40K at Pinnacle and betting 2K not knowing what you are doing. He reads the threads and the tension builds up and then it blows. He can't get over it.
well Donny dont look at my WNBA thread because that will even piss him off more, he needs to look at my MLB plays and see I am taking a bath so he can calm down!
its still basketball my claim to fame is basketball, baseball has kicked my ass since day 1 and I like baseball way more but I guess basketball is less competitive bettting wise and is a bit easier probably closer to my skill level!
From what I understand baseball has the lowest hold and probably easiest to beat . But as with anything, you have to have the ability to determine where the value lies so not as easy for some as others.
It is harder because there are so many unknowns. That is why it is better to handicap. You have an opportunity to use your knowledge and experience especially in the early season. That gives you an advantage over a lines maker trying to set a line with the math.
It is harder because there are so many unknowns. That is why it is better to handicap. You have an opportunity to use your knowledge and experience especially in the early season. That gives you an advantage over a lines maker trying to set a line with the math.
personally ,dont think its harder at all, much easier. And i think in all sports lines are soft for awhile in the beginning of the season.
Comments
The Cardinals are 9-0 SU as a home favorite when they are off two losses in which they never led The SDQL Text is:
team=Cardinals and HF and p:BL=0 and p:L and pp:BL=0 and pp:L and date>=20150909
The sample size was 9 games going back to 2015 and yesterday was the first play of this trend of the year and guess what it lost. The only thing I have to say and I've spent time with the Meyer brothers (Very Smart Brothers) is that they tell you it's a trend and use it as a tool in your tool box. Not in those words but the same meaning. what your doing is posting and possibly playing a trend that has very little sample size or if it has a large sample size take away all the years prior to say 2015 and I'll bet that 90% of them show nothing. Play KISS and you'll enjoy sports and sports betting more. There's no Holy grail they just want you to believe that.
enough games minimum 1000
make sense not he plays well on tuesdays
must be able to be back tested against different scenarios . I test my sdql against specific months, seasons and overall to see if the ROI is consistent and of course it is. the 50 games I have now is no where near a large enough sample size for anyone to say its good or bad just like the winner of 4 units last year was 40 or 50 games that means nothing
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Donny here is a good one that I bet people bet
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=team=Yankees+and+day=Wednesday&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
you think the Yankees are just better on Wednesday? I dont and most dont but you better believe someone is betting this
But the ones with that sample size may have been used at some point but not bet based solely on that trend. I see many SDQL's with 1000's of games and I wouldn't give them a second thought. The Cubs record is 19-1 when Rizzo strikes out 3x's the prior game what is that and why would you ever consider thinking about that. You stress way to much. Asking questions is okay but then you argue when someone takes the time to try and answer your questions. Chill you'll see things more clearly.
- - - Updated - - -
hey Donny you can now see my lines compared to the opening lines for tomorrows games that are coming out now and you can see I have an idea of what I am doing with setting lines. I know OT wont agree because he has a hardfast rule that he cannot or any of his BT friends compliment me in anyway and thats ok with me, the silence speaks loud enough! thanks to all!
I'm not saying he isn't a smart man but IMO he's not seeing the SDQL for what it is a tout service that gives you access to a database with mostly useless information. There is value in the part of finding Data that you want and backtrack simply by hitting a few keys which is very useful. But playing games simply off a trend isn't going to pay the rent.
not deviate from it because of any sdql model, kelly criterion or expected utility theories... they should not have an effect on the expected/generated line number that you produce... the model however can be adjusted over time though, and i have been trying to adjust mine currently because of the way that the tampa bay team is playing ball right now and maybe other teams in the future but it will be about the number(like ot said) for me and not the query or crtierion... just my way i quess... but like jets i have been following all these threads and honestly like dans input on the lines as far as what people say the bet on a forum has no relevance to me.... everybody has a "big one" on the net !!!!
OT gonna feel way over 100 here in new york , we are catching up to ya
I don't know you how can I dislike you. Trust me you got that wrong . Looking for compliments your doing a very good job with Beaver Ball and after a couple of 100 bets if it's still good I will compliment you loud and clear. But I'm serious there are places that no matter what you do they say great job, Good Luck every day no matter what your doing this is not that place. Anyway I'll tell you a short story about the hand shake . Every day I would walk through the pits and say good morning to all my employees and tell them have a good shift and keep moving. every morning without fail the same few guys would shake my hand do you think after a while it became meaningless. Do you really need to be complimented here? I hope I'm making sense using that analogy.
- - - Updated - - -
and BTW I hate ballless ball after that 5 possessions 20 point lead not one foul in the final minute crap I seen the other night.
had the ball 5 times 18 point lead and they shot 5 times and were never fouled in the final minute, please sabermetric that to me. that would be like in the NFL up by 10, have the ball with a minute left and throw 3 incomplete passes and punt.
personally ,dont think its harder at all, much easier. And i think in all sports lines are soft for awhile in the beginning of the season.