Yes. He has a model and it is legit. I don't know if it is any good or not. But he is far more advanced than most people that post here and have models.
He does not know anything about gambling. He is a numbers guy. He is learning gambling but is supremely confident in his ability to think his way to profit.
How do you know he has a model? Have you seen it? Have you seen how he arrived at the lines he did? Anyone could just put a whole card and then post numbers like these are the numbers i have for each one etc.
Now does he have a model? Most likely he does. The issue? How do you even know the stats he puts into the model even is correct? He might be putting data that is not only useless but actually is wrong. If he asks very simple novice questions, you think he knows what he is doing with his so called model? You don't know if his model is good or not. You really think someone that posts the way he does has a legit model? Why don't he show his model to a legit capper here or somewhere and have them give their opinion on this. Obviously legit modelers would never share this information. But you really think someone that posts the way you do has a legit model? Even he were to show how he models a gives a short glimpse of it without giving too much information, i could imagine how a legit capper would just go... you are just putting a bunch of stats in it without any reason.
Also what are your thoughts on his sdql plays? Remember he later says these plays suck. Then he says he bets 3x on sdql plays vs his model plays. Does that even make any sense to you?
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Why do you think certain cappers don't share their lines? Because they are legit modelers. They would be giving out useful information for nothing. You have a negative attitude when certain posters don't reveal certain information or answer certain questions of yours. That is like you telling RAS, hey tell us how you come up to your lines and show the actual numbers. Are you really serious?
Any information you put out here, no one would look at you legitly after looking at the way you post. Also so apparently said you are down 6 figures already with your SQDL plays. And you just continue to post on the forum like nothing happened. So you have like a 1 million dollar bankroll or more for sportsbetting or something? Thats why there doesn't seem to be other posters who respond to you.
that is what we call an edge, LOL. I am a maniac researcher, well most are sleeping I am modifying a formula. My wife says dont start with the words "i am so close" and we can talk
Weird, I figure most women would appreciate the warning
Why do you think certain cappers don't share their lines? Because they are legit modelers. They would be giving out useful information for nothing.
Most dont share because their model numbers are not very relevant to the actual lines, they work out implied probabiltity where I do comparative analysis, makes it easier to see my numbers compared to lines. Most are very secretive about their methods, most dont give a crap about what anyone here thinks and dont feel the need to post their lines.
You have a negative attitude when certain posters don't reveal certain information or answer certain questions of yours. That is like you telling RAS, hey tell us how you come up to your lines and show the actual numbers. Are you really serious?
I would not ask anyone how they came to their lines ever but I ask all the time what line people have on a game and people ask me that same question on here as well, it is an accepted practice BUT not how you got that number that is NOT public forum info.
Any information you put out here, no one would look at you legitly after looking at the way you post. Also so apparently said you are down 6 figures already with your SQDL plays. And you just continue to post on the forum like nothing happened. So you have like a 1 million dollar bankroll or more for sportsbetting or something? Thats why there doesn't seem to be other posters who respond to you.
if I have 5 dollars or 5 zillion is 100% irrelevant and I only post plays for units not dollar amounts. I am down big on SDQL plays and I will continue to play them because even if I lose it will be closer to a 65% WL ratio not 52% or whatever I am at now!
Donny brother look at my lines, look at my CLV on threads you will see I am not the greatest ever and my sample size is small but everyone will agree I am on the right track.
Weird, I figure most women would appreciate the warning
I meant so close as in not physically but so close to having a good number on something I am working on. implying all my conversations somehow involve some form of excel or python, I am pretty narrow minded
I use a simple little google sheets script to pull odds from vegasinsider and I use conditional formatting to get alerts on line changes and I get my updated injury reports via fantasylabs feed on google sheets and it emails alerts to me for injuries of players I have ranked high enough that they would change my line. I dont mess with prop lines so if vegas insider has them you could pull them if they dont you need to make sure where they do have them its not java or its api so we can scrape or pull it
How do you know he has a model? Have you seen it? Have you seen how he arrived at the lines he did? Anyone could just put a whole card and then post numbers like these are the numbers i have for each one etc.
Now does he have a model? .
He obviously has a model. Have you looked at his WNBA thread. His CLV projects a profitable model and his interest is in betting basketball. Everything else is experimental.
He has clearly stated his SQDL model is not anything special but has been profitable historically so he tracks it.
His model may or may not be good. But fairly ridiculous to think he doesn't have one. He is experienced with programming financial models and it is fairly common for finance types to try their hand at gambling.
I use a simple little google sheets script to pull odds from vegasinsider and I use conditional formatting to get alerts on line changes and I get my updated injury reports via fantasylabs feed on google sheets and it emails alerts to me for injuries of players I have ranked high enough that they would change my line. I dont mess with prop lines so if vegas insider has them you could pull them if they dont you need to make sure where they do have them its not java or its api so we can scrape or pull it
hmmm, maybe i'll check that site out too. I use labs for their props tool but some of this tech stuff is a pain. thanks.
He obviously has a model. Have you looked at his WNBA thread. His CLV projects a profitable model and his interest is in betting basketball. Everything else is experimental.
He has clearly stated his SQDL model is not anything special but has been profitable historically so he tracks it.
His model may or may not be good. But fairly ridiculous to think he doesn't have one. He is experienced with programming financial models and it is fairly common for finance types to try their hand at gambling.
Not only does he track his SDQL, but previously stated he plays it at 10X his model plays
Not only does he track his SDQL, but previously stated he plays it at 10X his model plays
He bets them too apparently. I would not take too much of what he does gambling into account. Money is just for counting. danshan would rather win $10 with his model than 40K by luck.
Not only does he track his SDQL, but previously stated he plays it at 10X his model plays
I play the sdql heavy for 2 reasons
A it is easier to bet heavy on those at one book because I am betting usually a few hours ahead of kickoff
B it has a really slim margin, so the only way to make any money with it is to bet it heavy.
do you cfb and nfl cappers use the cfl as training ground for your upcoming football season? I believe the cfl is going to help me with my fall football whether it be NFL or CFB
do you cfb and nfl cappers use the cfl as training ground for your upcoming football season? I believe the cfl is going to help me with my fall football whether it be NFL or CFB
It would be good experience because you have the same stats to work on and see how the model performs. You will at the very least get a baseline.
Know players by name?
I have won at college football not knowing any names at all.
That's a statement right outta the 80's. Chasing the Computer Group into turtle outs. How do you assess or make a line without being privy to injuries/suspensions, etc? Unless you're just following your associate RAS, you're dead in the water.
That's a statement right outta the 80's. Chasing the Computer Group into turtle outs. How do you assess or make a line without being privy to injuries/suspensions, etc? Unless you're just following your associate RAS, you're dead in the water.
I don't make lines. I am an 80s bettor although I did not bet back then. I know style of teams and how they play. The names don't much matter. Started picking high school football games in 6th grade and I am good at projection from years of following sports.
My approach is fairly similar to Alan Boston's. He doesn't pay that much attention to players either. I don't recommend it. I just rate in the top 1% of this stuff generally.
Never watched a NASCAR race but excel at NASCAR fantasy too.
I don't make lines. I am an 80s bettor although I did not bet back then. I know style of teams and how they play. The names don't much matter. Started picking high school football games in 6th grade and I am good at projection from years of following sports.
My approach is fairly similar to Alan Boston's. He doesn't pay that much attention to players either. I don't recommend it. I just rate in the top 1% of this stuff generally.
Never watched a NASCAR race but excel at NASCAR fantasy too.
Don't kid yourself AB knows players but to a larger extent knows coaches very well. Let's face it though, Boston is a dinosaur.
Don't kid yourself AB knows players but to a larger extent knows coaches very well. Let's face it though, Boston is a dinosaur.
He doesn't base hardly anything on players and doesn't watch games. He is a dinosaur but that does not mean that he cannot win. He just had what he says was one of his most successful seasons in terms of winning percentage.
In any case, college football is the perfect sport to bet for what I do and it is why it is the only sport I bet.
I don't think that when Edward is betting Quinnipiac he is really doing it off of anything he has seen or the stats. He just has a sense that Quinnipiac is the right side for any number of reason. His reasons for betting it are strictly his reasoning. So I don't think the concept is nearly as radical as you think.
If you give Edward nothing but scores and a Blue Ribbon yearbook and some access to game summaries, he will still come out a winner.
If you give Edward nothing but scores and a Blue Ribbon yearbook and some access to game summaries, he will still come out a winner.
Please, referencing a hard copy Blue Ribbon that is as stale as last weeks bread! Pre-internet explosion, the book was relevant especially when Chris from WVA was the author. No prob, I find myself stuck in the 80's at times.
Please, referencing a hard copy Blue Ribbon that is as stale as last weeks bread! Pre-internet explosion, the book was relevant especially when Chris from WVA was the author. No prob, I find myself stuck in the 80's at times.
Ronbets, we are not talking about you doing it. Of course, that would be impossible. You would need a Basketball Bible.
A computer model is really very rudimentary information. It is just better than the average gambler's ability at getting to that point with access to the same information. However, the handicapper has far more information that can be processed than the computer. Nonetheless, all that information has almost no value whatsoever. So the amount of information it takes to beat a line is very small. It is really just a basic estimation that basically anyone can arrive at. The people that are good at arriving at that point do it in many different ways and you will not be able to stop them from winning if they have access to just basic info.
So you give Ed nothing but scores and he will handicap successfully with what he can do with that information and he will bet fewer games and use only part of what he is capable of doing but he will nonetheless come out on top because he has access to plenty of information and will arrive at very strong opinions. Those opinions are likely to be very good bets even if it is only 1980s level info. That may not be good enough to make a living gambling but will be more than good enough to put jets96 in the black for the year betting openers and overnights and other good lines that come available.
If he does not recognize his limitations with the info available to him and still tries to bet hundreds of games, he will lose.
That's equivalent to a young driver with a learners permit driving in mid-town Manhattan,
Here's what might relate to you:
A guy I grew up with had a reputation as a sports winner. Keen observer with a good eye test. BW, always looking for an edge, approached this guy for possible employment in his group. Questions included betting tenure, etc. The last question he asked was what did you make Team A over Team B. My friend replied, "I don't make lines". Game over and no job.
That's equivalent to a young driver with a learners permit driving in mid-town Manhattan,
Here's what might relate to you:
A guy I grew up with had a reputation as a sports winner. Keen observer with a good eye test. BW, always looking for an edge, approached this guy for possible employment in his group. Questions included betting tenure, etc. The last question he asked was what did you make Team A over Team B. My friend replied, "I don't make lines". Game over and no job.
I have no aspirations of working for Billy Walters. Only beating BOL openers and Bookmaker's overnights. I will leave the rest to big boys and pick up the leftovers.
hey Ronbets, Donny made a valid point that people dont share their lines just the picks, why is that? I mean I dont see the difference of writing 7-4 Yankees -120 and writing I got -145 so Yankees -120. Why dont they do that, what is the risk, it helps me a ton if I log on 20 minutes later and its -121 is it still a play the only way for me to know that is to know the guys line, right? but what is the downside, I dont understand the hesitation to share lines that they set?
hey Ronbets, Donny made a valid point that people dont share their lines just the picks, why is that? I mean I dont see the difference of writing 7-4 Yankees -120 and writing I got -145 so Yankees -120. Why dont they do that, what is the risk, it helps me a ton if I log on 20 minutes later and its -121 is it still a play the only way for me to know that is to know the guys line, right? but what is the downside, I dont understand the hesitation to share lines that they set?
Nobody cares about what line you made it. They only care about what line you like. And most people do not want to go into these types of discussions. There are only a handful of guys posting that make lines and those of you that do talk to one another.
In fact, any discussion in a pick thread is generally frowned upon and will be put down aggressively if the thread is popular.
Nobody cares about what line you made it. They only care about what line you like. And most people do not want to go into these types of discussions. There are only a handful of guys posting that make lines and those of you that do talk to one another.
In fact, any discussion in a pick thread is generally frowned upon and will be put down aggressively if the thread is popular.
if people played my bets and got better or worse lines, they would either be very happy or very sad but they definitely would not have the same results. I am very confused I guess of what this forum is for, what is it for?
Comments
How do you know he has a model? Have you seen it? Have you seen how he arrived at the lines he did? Anyone could just put a whole card and then post numbers like these are the numbers i have for each one etc.
Now does he have a model? Most likely he does. The issue? How do you even know the stats he puts into the model even is correct? He might be putting data that is not only useless but actually is wrong. If he asks very simple novice questions, you think he knows what he is doing with his so called model? You don't know if his model is good or not. You really think someone that posts the way he does has a legit model? Why don't he show his model to a legit capper here or somewhere and have them give their opinion on this. Obviously legit modelers would never share this information. But you really think someone that posts the way you do has a legit model? Even he were to show how he models a gives a short glimpse of it without giving too much information, i could imagine how a legit capper would just go... you are just putting a bunch of stats in it without any reason.
Also what are your thoughts on his sdql plays? Remember he later says these plays suck. Then he says he bets 3x on sdql plays vs his model plays. Does that even make any sense to you?
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Why do you think certain cappers don't share their lines? Because they are legit modelers. They would be giving out useful information for nothing. You have a negative attitude when certain posters don't reveal certain information or answer certain questions of yours. That is like you telling RAS, hey tell us how you come up to your lines and show the actual numbers. Are you really serious?
Any information you put out here, no one would look at you legitly after looking at the way you post. Also so apparently said you are down 6 figures already with your SQDL plays. And you just continue to post on the forum like nothing happened. So you have like a 1 million dollar bankroll or more for sportsbetting or something? Thats why there doesn't seem to be other posters who respond to you.
Most dont share because their model numbers are not very relevant to the actual lines, they work out implied probabiltity where I do comparative analysis, makes it easier to see my numbers compared to lines. Most are very secretive about their methods, most dont give a crap about what anyone here thinks and dont feel the need to post their lines.
You have a negative attitude when certain posters don't reveal certain information or answer certain questions of yours. That is like you telling RAS, hey tell us how you come up to your lines and show the actual numbers. Are you really serious?
I would not ask anyone how they came to their lines ever but I ask all the time what line people have on a game and people ask me that same question on here as well, it is an accepted practice BUT not how you got that number that is NOT public forum info.
Any information you put out here, no one would look at you legitly after looking at the way you post. Also so apparently said you are down 6 figures already with your SQDL plays. And you just continue to post on the forum like nothing happened. So you have like a 1 million dollar bankroll or more for sportsbetting or something? Thats why there doesn't seem to be other posters who respond to you.
if I have 5 dollars or 5 zillion is 100% irrelevant and I only post plays for units not dollar amounts. I am down big on SDQL plays and I will continue to play them because even if I lose it will be closer to a 65% WL ratio not 52% or whatever I am at now!
Donny brother look at my lines, look at my CLV on threads you will see I am not the greatest ever and my sample size is small but everyone will agree I am on the right track.
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I meant so close as in not physically but so close to having a good number on something I am working on. implying all my conversations somehow involve some form of excel or python, I am pretty narrow minded
He obviously has a model. Have you looked at his WNBA thread. His CLV projects a profitable model and his interest is in betting basketball. Everything else is experimental.
He has clearly stated his SQDL model is not anything special but has been profitable historically so he tracks it.
His model may or may not be good. But fairly ridiculous to think he doesn't have one. He is experienced with programming financial models and it is fairly common for finance types to try their hand at gambling.
hmmm, maybe i'll check that site out too. I use labs for their props tool but some of this tech stuff is a pain. thanks.
Does a handicappers know players by name ?do modelers ?just wondering
Know players by name? No. Probably in NBA and baseball that would be a requirement.
I have won at college football not knowing any names at all.
Not only does he track his SDQL, but previously stated he plays it at 10X his model plays
He bets them too apparently. I would not take too much of what he does gambling into account. Money is just for counting. danshan would rather win $10 with his model than 40K by luck.
I play the sdql heavy for 2 reasons
A it is easier to bet heavy on those at one book because I am betting usually a few hours ahead of kickoff
B it has a really slim margin, so the only way to make any money with it is to bet it heavy.
It would be good experience because you have the same stats to work on and see how the model performs. You will at the very least get a baseline.
No. But I like Washington State -3.
That's a statement right outta the 80's. Chasing the Computer Group into turtle outs. How do you assess or make a line without being privy to injuries/suspensions, etc? Unless you're just following your associate RAS, you're dead in the water.
I don't make lines. I am an 80s bettor although I did not bet back then. I know style of teams and how they play. The names don't much matter. Started picking high school football games in 6th grade and I am good at projection from years of following sports.
My approach is fairly similar to Alan Boston's. He doesn't pay that much attention to players either. I don't recommend it. I just rate in the top 1% of this stuff generally.
Never watched a NASCAR race but excel at NASCAR fantasy too.
Don't kid yourself AB knows players but to a larger extent knows coaches very well. Let's face it though, Boston is a dinosaur.
He doesn't base hardly anything on players and doesn't watch games. He is a dinosaur but that does not mean that he cannot win. He just had what he says was one of his most successful seasons in terms of winning percentage.
In any case, college football is the perfect sport to bet for what I do and it is why it is the only sport I bet.
I don't think that when Edward is betting Quinnipiac he is really doing it off of anything he has seen or the stats. He just has a sense that Quinnipiac is the right side for any number of reason. His reasons for betting it are strictly his reasoning. So I don't think the concept is nearly as radical as you think.
If you give Edward nothing but scores and a Blue Ribbon yearbook and some access to game summaries, he will still come out a winner.
Please, referencing a hard copy Blue Ribbon that is as stale as last weeks bread! Pre-internet explosion, the book was relevant especially when Chris from WVA was the author. No prob, I find myself stuck in the 80's at times.
Ronbets, we are not talking about you doing it. Of course, that would be impossible. You would need a Basketball Bible.
A computer model is really very rudimentary information. It is just better than the average gambler's ability at getting to that point with access to the same information. However, the handicapper has far more information that can be processed than the computer. Nonetheless, all that information has almost no value whatsoever. So the amount of information it takes to beat a line is very small. It is really just a basic estimation that basically anyone can arrive at. The people that are good at arriving at that point do it in many different ways and you will not be able to stop them from winning if they have access to just basic info.
So you give Ed nothing but scores and he will handicap successfully with what he can do with that information and he will bet fewer games and use only part of what he is capable of doing but he will nonetheless come out on top because he has access to plenty of information and will arrive at very strong opinions. Those opinions are likely to be very good bets even if it is only 1980s level info. That may not be good enough to make a living gambling but will be more than good enough to put jets96 in the black for the year betting openers and overnights and other good lines that come available.
If he does not recognize his limitations with the info available to him and still tries to bet hundreds of games, he will lose.
That's equivalent to a young driver with a learners permit driving in mid-town Manhattan,
Here's what might relate to you:
A guy I grew up with had a reputation as a sports winner. Keen observer with a good eye test. BW, always looking for an edge, approached this guy for possible employment in his group. Questions included betting tenure, etc. The last question he asked was what did you make Team A over Team B. My friend replied, "I don't make lines". Game over and no job.
I have no aspirations of working for Billy Walters. Only beating BOL openers and Bookmaker's overnights. I will leave the rest to big boys and pick up the leftovers.
Billy also should have left that last bet alone.
Nobody cares about what line you made it. They only care about what line you like. And most people do not want to go into these types of discussions. There are only a handful of guys posting that make lines and those of you that do talk to one another.
In fact, any discussion in a pick thread is generally frowned upon and will be put down aggressively if the thread is popular.
Ratings, hidden injuries, likely regression, likely progression, lineups, etc.
Once I was at a Greek gyro stand in NYC. I asked the owner what's in the secret sauce. His reply to me was NOYFBiz.
if people played my bets and got better or worse lines, they would either be very happy or very sad but they definitely would not have the same results. I am very confused I guess of what this forum is for, what is it for?
Much to Edward's denial, it's his marketing tool.