personally ,dont think its harder at all, much easier. And i think in all sports lines are soft for awhile in the beginning of the season.
That depends on what you are doing. If you are doing a certain amount of handicapping that may be true. However, you are not going to model a more accurate number on Akron and Nebraska than on a professional sport.
danshan is pure modeler so he finds its daunting. And if you are going to put your model number out there on a game, you are going to get destroyed by handicappers.
That is why BOL had lines move 10 and 20 points on their openers a couple of years ago.
what is the difference between handicapping and modeling?
A handicapper weighs factors that they believe will give one team an advantage over another such as style of play, matchups, coaching, etc and makes bets based on subjective judgments. A modeler runs programs and bets his numbers.
Nebraska has a lot of talent on offense and the QB is probably going to be a good as last year. Frost is going to run up the score. Nebraska has basically nothing on defense but they have recruited pretty well so they will probably be able to handle Akron and cover -20.5
Gambler 2
Nebraska is not a good team and does not have much at QB. Akron has their entire defense back and will probably keep Nebraska below 40 and with that defense Akron is going to score some points. I like Akron.
but I think essentially I have 20 is the same as gambler 1 and 2, essentially that is why it is 20 cause of those things, that is what I was trying to tell member baseball is all those things he says about the wind and OPS and against righties is all in the line already and if its not in the line it probably dont matter anyway. MOST things not everything but most things, i mean how do you think the NFL is so effecient I mean look at these stats and you tell me what is not in that line
but I think essentially I have 20 is the same as gambler 1 and 2, essentially that is why it is 20 cause of those things, that is what I was trying to tell member baseball is all those things he says about the wind and OPS and against righties is all in the line already and if its not in the line it probably dont matter anyway
More or less true. But the gambler may have a knack for projection in which case he gets an advantage. In the case of college football that is definitely possible early in the season but as the season goes the modelers get the upper hand.
but I think essentially I have 20 is the same as gambler 1 and 2, essentially that is why it is 20 cause of those things, that is what I was trying to tell member baseball is all those things he says about the wind and OPS and against righties is all in the line already and if its not in the line it probably dont matter anyway. MOST things not everything but most things, i mean how do you think the NFL is so effecient I mean look at these stats and you tell me what is not in that line
Yes. When it comes to baseball, there is a lot of handicapping that can be done and that is probably why it has a lower hold. When you get to NFL football, those numbers are going to be tough to beat. In the case of college football, there is a lot of turnover and projection that must be done. Even more so in college basketball. So those two sports are very hard to get a handle on and provide a lot of opportunity for handicapping advantages.
No. Probably most handicappers make their own line but they go more by their own opinions on games.
As with the Akron-Nebraska game, there is a ton of value on that game depending on which side is right, if they are. More than likely one side is more right than wrong. The winning handicappers are right more times than wrong in making those evaluations. It is just something they are good at.
The modeler is forever trying to outmodel the competition. He makes it harder on the handicapper but in some cases provides opportunity.
but I got to get that point at margin I cant pay for it. I have to bet at the right time and right games to make sure I get a half to 1 point per game without paying for it, that is the value, that is one of the only ways I can see to beat a system that has an astonishingly sharp closing line
Because a person has a good idea in their head about how good a team is. So when they see a line that is wrong, they can recognize it instantly.
In the case of the first week of college football, you have time to read every preview and the preview articles for Nebraska to find out if the DC likes his defense.
In the early season, a lot of the line is based on traditional views of a team. If a person has good knowledge about a certain team they can have a significant advantage that the market as a whole just does not have or get around to looking at.
if that is true which I am not denying, just questioning how would you explain the damn near flawless record against the spread. 11123-11280-432 (0.14, 49.6%) that is for college football
I mean it looks like they dont leave many holes in the lines
if that is true which I am not denying, just questioning how would you explain the damn near flawless record against the spread. 11123-11280-432 (0.14, 49.6%) that is for college football
I mean it looks like they dont leave many holes in the lines
98% of people do not win. 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the market but that never stopped Warren Buffet. Not all gamblers are created equal.
in my opinion and looking at those numbers its probably like this
if the line closes at +20 everyone holding a +20 ticket has a 50% chance to win and the only people who got a better chance are people holding tickets with 20.5 or more at margin have a better than 50% chance. I am actually not even sure 20.5 is enough to cover the -110 margin, I dont remember what pinnys margin is on CFB spreads BUT that is the only way I can see to beat CFB, you dont agree?
in my opinion and looking at those numbers its probably like this
if the line closes at +20 everyone holding a +20 ticket has a 50% chance to win and the only people who got a better chance are people holding tickets with 20.5 or more at margin have a better than 50% chance. I am actually not even sure 20.5 is enough to cover the -110 margin, I dont remember what pinnys margin is on CFB spreads BUT that is the only way I can see to beat CFB, you dont agree?
You are a modeler. Zero modelers believe that a handicapper can do something they can't.
98% of people do not win. 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the market but that never stopped Warren Buffet. Not all gamblers are created equal.
I think 99.5% of people lose betting but MOST of the .5% that do are beating the line at enough to cover the margin and nothing more plays into it. now how they beat the line, I am sure they do it different ways but they have to beat the line, cause beating the spread is like beating coin flips kinda hard to do!
I think 99.5% of people lose betting but MOST of the .5% that do are beating the line at enough to cover the margin and nothing more plays into it. now how they beat the line, I am sure they do it different ways but they have to beat the line, cause beating the spread is like beating coin flips kinda hard to do!
I have read 1 to 2%. It is very small regardless. You know that there are stock pickers that trounce the market and it is more efficient than the gambling market and people beat the gambling market the same way stock pickers do -- with research.
a point spread is just a implied probability put into a simple form I can understand. so if the implied probability is X and you bet X-margin you lose. you got to get your implied probability up without increasing cost to get it up ie beating the line
I think 99.5% of people lose betting but MOST of the .5% that do are beating the line at enough to cover the margin and nothing more plays into it. now how they beat the line, I am sure they do it different ways but they have to beat the line, cause beating the spread is like beating coin flips kinda hard to do!
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you got to agree those numbers show its a coin flip when you have the closing line on a ticket, right? it dont matter who is holding it
LOL. I will not try to convince you otherwise. I know the mindset.
I have read 1 to 2%. It is very small regardless. You know that there are stock pickers that trounce the market and it is less efficient than the gambling market and people beat the gambling market the same way stock pickers do -- with research.
most traders that do win, they model using candles and patterns. they dont trade unless they have a line. time is now 10am and we are at X and at 4pm per a cross we will be at Y so we get in at A and out at B or C
R40, do you really believe danshan has a model that is legit? Who here believes this?
I can't believe anyone thinks a guy who asks very novice questions ...has a model that is legit. You all think he has a model that even compares to other modelers? His SDQL plays which is nothing but big favorites and then says his sdql plays suck... yet bet 3x the amount on these plays compared to his so called model plays?
most traders that do win, they model using candles and patterns. they dont trade unless they have a line. time is now 10am and we are at X and at 4pm per a cross we will be at Y so we get in at A and out at B or C
Get out here with that technical analysis crap. That is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The people that beat the market are maniac researchers that have different opinions than the market as a whole
LOL. I will not try to convince you otherwise. I know the mindset.
No I love the conversation, please enlighten me and trust me others will tell you, we all know there are guys out there who dont have excel or know what python is that beat the line whether they know it or not
For example if he is asking very novice questions, how would anyone believe he is even modeling correctly? He probably already made tons of mistakes in his so called modeling of his numbers even at the beginning with whatever stats he is using. I could imagine Danshan showing to how he came to a line and showed it to a legit modeler... that guy would probably think what in the world is this guy doing.
Get out here with that technical analysis crap. That is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The people that beat the market are maniac researchers that have different opinions than the market as a whole
that is what we call an edge, LOL. I am a maniac researcher, well most are sleeping I am modifying a formula. My wife says dont start with the words "i am so close" and we can talk
R40, do you really believe danshan has a model that is legit? Who here believes this?
I can't believe anyone thinks a guy who asks very novice questions ...has a model that is legit. You all think he has a model that even compares to other modelers? His SDQL plays which is nothing but big favorites and then says his sdql plays suck... yet bet 3x the amount on these plays compared to his so called model plays?
Yes. He has a model and it is legit. I don't know if it is any good or not. But he is far more advanced than most people that post here and have models.
He does not know anything about gambling. He is a numbers guy. He is learning gambling but is supremely confident in his ability to think his way to profit.
yeah I remember that but I love the conversation because I get super frustrated when I have a horrible win loss record and great line value or the opposite win 10 games ina row and none have line value.
yeah I remember that but I love the conversation because I get super frustrated when I have a horrible win loss record and great line value or the opposite win 10 games ina row and none have line value.
I have told you this before. If you are going to be a modeler you have to learn and use freely every modelers favorite word: variance
For example if he is asking very novice questions, how would anyone believe he is even modeling correctly? He probably already made tons of mistakes in his so called modeling of his numbers even at the beginning with whatever stats he is using. I could imagine Danshan showing to how he came to a line and showed it to a legit modeler... that guy would probably think what in the world is this guy doing.
Donny I asked yesterday how to determine how close a number was to another number and had to get the formula to do it correctly from someone else. I have no claim of knowing it all even though sometimes my big mouth implies that. I am here to do what everyone else does learn, get accolades, share knowledge and discuss a topic that we would assume people here like and that is sports betting. I shared my lines with you yesterday, did you see them I can share todays with you in a few minutes and you can compare those to the openers and closers. Donny like it or not I know how to set a line, now is it as accurate as some of these other guys who knows they dont share their lines. I like to share my lines and I wish others did. Like it or not I can set a line brother. MY wnba lines were so close today I had literallly nothing to bet on, and that is a good thing to me!
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I did not bet the Twins last night because I thought the Twins would win it was because I had 110 and bought it at 135 or whatever, I did not like the Orioles today I got them at +150 because I got +125ish or something. I know how to set lines
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Variance is a very nasty word! I hate that word, it sounds like an easy way out!
Comments
That depends on what you are doing. If you are doing a certain amount of handicapping that may be true. However, you are not going to model a more accurate number on Akron and Nebraska than on a professional sport.
danshan is pure modeler so he finds its daunting. And if you are going to put your model number out there on a game, you are going to get destroyed by handicappers.
That is why BOL had lines move 10 and 20 points on their openers a couple of years ago.
A handicapper weighs factors that they believe will give one team an advantage over another such as style of play, matchups, coaching, etc and makes bets based on subjective judgments. A modeler runs programs and bets his numbers.
Gambler 1
Nebraska has a lot of talent on offense and the QB is probably going to be a good as last year. Frost is going to run up the score. Nebraska has basically nothing on defense but they have recruited pretty well so they will probably be able to handle Akron and cover -20.5
Gambler 2
Nebraska is not a good team and does not have much at QB. Akron has their entire defense back and will probably keep Nebraska below 40 and with that defense Akron is going to score some points. I like Akron.
Modeler.
I have 20.
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
3526-3561-197 (0.19, 49.8%)
</tbody>
More or less true. But the gambler may have a knack for projection in which case he gets an advantage. In the case of college football that is definitely possible early in the season but as the season goes the modelers get the upper hand.
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
11123-11280-432 (0.14, 49.6%)
I would say they have a pretty good grip whats in the line or not
</tbody>
Yes. When it comes to baseball, there is a lot of handicapping that can be done and that is probably why it has a lower hold. When you get to NFL football, those numbers are going to be tough to beat. In the case of college football, there is a lot of turnover and projection that must be done. Even more so in college basketball. So those two sports are very hard to get a handle on and provide a lot of opportunity for handicapping advantages.
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The line is good enough. It is not good enough to beat the people that can win, particularly early when some lines are spectacularly wrong.
No. Probably most handicappers make their own line but they go more by their own opinions on games.
As with the Akron-Nebraska game, there is a ton of value on that game depending on which side is right, if they are. More than likely one side is more right than wrong. The winning handicappers are right more times than wrong in making those evaluations. It is just something they are good at.
The modeler is forever trying to outmodel the competition. He makes it harder on the handicapper but in some cases provides opportunity.
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http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=ats+margin<.6+and+ats+margin>-.6+and+season=2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
I look at this and it tells me, if I can find a way to get a .5 to 1 point a game, I will do very well dont matter who I bet on.
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but I got to get that point at margin I cant pay for it. I have to bet at the right time and right games to make sure I get a half to 1 point per game without paying for it, that is the value, that is one of the only ways I can see to beat a system that has an astonishingly sharp closing line
In the case of the first week of college football, you have time to read every preview and the preview articles for Nebraska to find out if the DC likes his defense.
In the early season, a lot of the line is based on traditional views of a team. If a person has good knowledge about a certain team they can have a significant advantage that the market as a whole just does not have or get around to looking at.
11123-11280-432 (0.14, 49.6%) that is for college football
I mean it looks like they dont leave many holes in the lines
98% of people do not win. 80% of mutual funds fail to beat the market but that never stopped Warren Buffet. Not all gamblers are created equal.
if the line closes at +20 everyone holding a +20 ticket has a 50% chance to win and the only people who got a better chance are people holding tickets with 20.5 or more at margin have a better than 50% chance. I am actually not even sure 20.5 is enough to cover the -110 margin, I dont remember what pinnys margin is on CFB spreads BUT that is the only way I can see to beat CFB, you dont agree?
You are a modeler. Zero modelers believe that a handicapper can do something they can't.
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you got to agree those numbers show its a coin flip when you have the closing line on a ticket, right? it dont matter who is holding it
I have read 1 to 2%. It is very small regardless. You know that there are stock pickers that trounce the market and it is more efficient than the gambling market and people beat the gambling market the same way stock pickers do -- with research.
LOL. I will not try to convince you otherwise. I know the mindset.
I can't believe anyone thinks a guy who asks very novice questions ...has a model that is legit. You all think he has a model that even compares to other modelers? His SDQL plays which is nothing but big favorites and then says his sdql plays suck... yet bet 3x the amount on these plays compared to his so called model plays?
No I love the conversation, please enlighten me and trust me others will tell you, we all know there are guys out there who dont have excel or know what python is that beat the line whether they know it or not
that is what we call an edge, LOL. I am a maniac researcher, well most are sleeping I am modifying a formula. My wife says dont start with the words "i am so close" and we can talk
Yes. He has a model and it is legit. I don't know if it is any good or not. But he is far more advanced than most people that post here and have models.
He does not know anything about gambling. He is a numbers guy. He is learning gambling but is supremely confident in his ability to think his way to profit.
I have told you this before. If you are going to be a modeler you have to learn and use freely every modelers favorite word: variance
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I did not bet the Twins last night because I thought the Twins would win it was because I had 110 and bought it at 135 or whatever, I did not like the Orioles today I got them at +150 because I got +125ish or something. I know how to set lines
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Variance is a very nasty word! I hate that word, it sounds like an easy way out!