I really wish you luck I have nothing against you and I don't think anyone here does either. Kinda hard to dislike someone you don't know so I'll leave you and again say Good Luck.
that damn near could be the closest to a nice thing, the first time ever since i been on this forum. but hey thanks and I will keep on trying to try to get this thing figured out.
The game opened -130 and you're laying -170? Oh, what difference does it make when you win:wonder:
Reminds me of chalk player we had. If he ever bet a 'dog we knew it was a mistake regardless what the tapes said. Anyway he called one day and asked "What's Guidry?". Reply was -240. "Eh, I get back to you on that" Called 5 minutes to post with same query, "What's Guidry?" Reply was -280. "I like them even better now. Give me the Yanks for XXXX"
my plays here are only the sdql plays and I do not chase the line per se. MY plays have nothing to do with the line in the sense of line movement. my value in line for this sdql is the win% is blah and the line avg is blah blah which nets pos ROI.
The game opened -130 and you're laying -170? Oh, what difference does it make when you win:wonder:
Reminds me of chalk player we had. If he ever bet a 'dog we knew it was a mistake regardless what the tapes said. Anyway he called one day and asked "What's Guidry?". Reply was -240. "Eh, I get back to you on that" Called 5 minutes to post with same query, "What's Guidry?" Reply was -280. "I like them even better now. Give me the Yanks for XXXX"
yea, the reason he's waiting and getting the ass of the market so often is because he has to wait until the game is in the -170 plus range based on his 'query'. so a game at -130 won't be a play, but it might be later that day after people have bet all the value out of it.
you are confusing me. Are you just trying to find a way to be critical or are you trying to explain something that I am missing? My SDQL only cares about closing line. Ultimately what would be nice is for me to be able to establish fair line and then play those way ahead knowing they will meet my criteria BUT if I could set a line like that I would not be messing around with sdql's for games anyway
again I ask if the line opened at -130 and closed at -186 , what does that in general mean? I think if the line jumped that much it probably had to do with some condition not value in the line, like certain players missing late changes blah blah blah.
If you're betting into closers and thus getting zero CLV, you're incredibly likely to lose long term. Playing games at -170 that could have been had at -130 will be a recipe for disaster in the end.
I think what happened here is I got in at 170 on a game that closed at 186 that to me is some value, even though that is not what i did at all on purpose anyway.
I think if it opened at -129 and closed at -170 and i bought it at -170 that would be called losing the vig
but a game that opened at -129 and closed at -186 is covering the vig and then some if I got it at -170
my sdql has some line value somehow the games are winning at 68..0% exactly and the avg line is -186.3
sseaon 2017 71.4% WL and avg line -187.1
since i started like 7-1 or so, LOL I messed up a few games not waiting for the line to settle and made some early mistakes but I am doing worse than that, I need to check my tablet sheet to get the avg line but you know the win% is 50% right now
Just a thought, If your going to use this and lets be clear I don't agree with it but instead of cherry picking try a query using any Favorite over -175 and see what you come up with. Personally if I was to do this I would bet the games early if my line was over the -175 instead of waiting for the line to close which possibly could be higher. Waiting for the closing line with large favorites most times your going to pay a premium or at least more times then not. I also played the Pirates tonight but I laid -140 and I'm thinking you don't realize the difference in my bet and yours.
I absolutely understand the difference between your bet and mine with the difference in line. My query is solid and if anyone would look at what i say about it without just instantly discounting it. Everyone just says the only way is the line value and I 100% agree and that is exactly what my sdql query is its getting value in the line.
A way to drastically increase my numbers on my sdql would be to try and set a line for the games that have the possibility of being in my sdql and try to buy them ideal times to get way better bet lines than the closing line. like this game for example although i think this game is an extreme example not the norm. but for example say the pirates opener was -220 now we all pretty much know that game will qualify assuming my other criteria is pre met but assuming if the line stays in range with what i need a -220 line should qualify. so in that case try and build my own line on that game and say i think that game will close at -230 so I try and get it at the best price i can below -230. IF a big if I could do that my sdql could become very valuable but again, I dont think I am in a good position right now to set good lines and I have asked people about lines I am setting and have not got much help and my wife and 3 year old and my dog are not much help for setting lines!
and I just overlook the rude thing you say very nicely liek "you aree too stupid too know the difference" but we will just laugh that off like usual, I guess it makes you feel better to think or sound or be smarter than someone else. Anyway I do appreciate the help anyway I can get it. I am determined to do well
my numbers are getting better and they will continue to get better because my sdql is only based on the value of the line in my query period and is not some dumb stuff like Pirates at home on Tuesday a day after they score exactly 4 runs. MY sdql says simply the line has value bet it. win 68% avg line -186 is value
Comments
9-9 50% WL (goal 67.9%)
units -5.4
you are not trying if you are not cheating at least a little bit!
Record
9-9 50% WL (goal 67.9%)
units -5.45
Pirates ML
1.7u to win 1u
The game opened -130 and you're laying -170? Oh, what difference does it make when you win:wonder:
Reminds me of chalk player we had. If he ever bet a 'dog we knew it was a mistake regardless what the tapes said. Anyway he called one day and asked "What's Guidry?". Reply was -240. "Eh, I get back to you on that" Called 5 minutes to post with same query, "What's Guidry?" Reply was -280. "I like them even better now. Give me the Yanks for XXXX"
May I see it? Taking about sharing and how nobody here answers your questions and shares information so may I see what you have.
basically what my query says is the win % is 68% over 3000 games and the avg line is -185 which creates a small profit gap.
I think if it opened at -129 and closed at -170 and i bought it at -170 that would be called losing the vig
but a game that opened at -129 and closed at -186 is covering the vig and then some if I got it at -170
sseaon 2017 71.4% WL and avg line -187.1
since i started like 7-1 or so, LOL I messed up a few games not waiting for the line to settle and made some early mistakes but I am doing worse than that, I need to check my tablet sheet to get the avg line but you know the win% is 50% right now
A way to drastically increase my numbers on my sdql would be to try and set a line for the games that have the possibility of being in my sdql and try to buy them ideal times to get way better bet lines than the closing line. like this game for example although i think this game is an extreme example not the norm. but for example say the pirates opener was -220 now we all pretty much know that game will qualify assuming my other criteria is pre met but assuming if the line stays in range with what i need a -220 line should qualify. so in that case try and build my own line on that game and say i think that game will close at -230 so I try and get it at the best price i can below -230. IF a big if I could do that my sdql could become very valuable but again, I dont think I am in a good position right now to set good lines and I have asked people about lines I am setting and have not got much help and my wife and 3 year old and my dog are not much help for setting lines!