my average line is -185 that gives you a nearly 65% win probability on that alone
so doing the math here (and please correct me if I'm wrong.) You're going to lose 35 games out of a hundred. At an ave line of -185, that means you will lose 64.75 units (35 X 1.85) and win 65.0 units per hundred bets. So that leaves your net at +.25 units per hundred bets. Doesn't leave much room for error, and any negative variance from the 65% win rate will make you a loser, and possibly, in a big way laying this much wood on each bet.
yeah but my sdql is not based on just the line, I need to win at 69% roughly to be profitable at the ROI of 5 I am looking for.
the amazing thing is how in the world I can have this # of games in and have this many losses is crazy. I think I lost 5 or 6 straight avg -185 games in a row, you talk about some variance there, chances of that happening I think someone said is 2%
chances of that happening I think someone said is 2%
Unfortunately, if you gamble at high volume for many years, you realize 2% occurrences happen and you eventually find them less "crazy" although they still suck.
and I am having lots of fun learning the closing lines. I am starting to personally track my line accuracy. I have not had many wins (not lucky) but I am surely getting close to the closing line
yes I am really crazy. I thought at minimum I would get close to the -185 implied probability. I am clueless if i somehow can keep this loss ratio up, I am rich I will just bet the other side
Do you know just another four winners and you'll be 13-8 around 62% and be up 0.3 units. It's all about units. Put me down for a little action on the Over 5%
I am promising you my system is solid. I am not betting on the yankees are good on tuesdays after winning by 3 runs and the previous game win by >6 runs. MY SDQl makes sense
Comments
the amazing thing is how in the world I can have this # of games in and have this many losses is crazy. I think I lost 5 or 6 straight avg -185 games in a row, you talk about some variance there, chances of that happening I think someone said is 2%
Unfortunately, if you gamble at high volume for many years, you realize 2% occurrences happen and you eventually find them less "crazy" although they still suck.
Yes, but what you believe your mean to be and what your true mean is may be two different things.
Also, due to your extremely low volume, it could take you years (decades?) to regress to the mean.
At the rate you're going, it's going to take years (decades?) to realize danshan is actually Rip007
1.75u to win 1u
No way. Rip takes dumb to a whole new level and could never ever form a complete sentence.
1.65U to win 1U
7-8 46.7% WL (goal 67.9%)
Units -5.7
still have Angels play today pending
8-8 50% WL (goal 67.9%)
units -4.7
Dodgers ML
2.14u to win 1u
Rip/Dano,
What % of ppl viewing this thread are rooting for/against you?
I think the 97% is a little high. You left out the don't GAF category.
93.3& against
1.7% for
5% not interested
What's the limit for over 5% not interested?
9-8 53% WL (goal 67.9%)
units -3.7
1.75u to win 1u