Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
:wacko:
Gonna be wearing green to the final? (Although it seems like they wear black or red now.)
EDIT: Just looked at the odds for the heck of it and on a more serious note... With the US and Mexico virtually the same odds, why do you like Mexico so much more? Also, how much (if any) did you downgrade CR b/c of Navas being out?
Gonna be wearing green to the final? (Although it seems like they wear black or red now.)
EDIT: Just looked at the odds for the heck of it and on a more serious note... With the US and Mexico virtually the same odds, why do you like Mexico so much more? Also, how much (if any) did you downgrade CR b/c of Navas being out?
You'll be able to find me easily at least...I'll be the only guy wearing a sombrero in the Outlaws section.
The play is hugely due to the favorable draw that Mexico has vs. our draw. On paper, I think that Mexico has a little bit better squad than us at the moment (especially with Jones out and the questions surrounding Jozy). However, most if not all of that is neutralized by our prior success against Mexico on US soil should we end up meeting them in the final. I'd pretty much consider a US-Mexico game in the final to be a coin flip (with Mexico probably being a slight favorite). I've got the US, Mexico,and Costa Rica (even without Navas) a pretty big distance ahead of the rest of the pack, and think that the gap between US/Mexico and Costa Rica is much smaller than the gap between Costa Rica and the Panama/Jamaica tier of teams. I just don't think that Mexico is priced correctly due to that easy road to the final (of course this is all dependent on us, Mexico, and Costa Rica winning our groups, but it's a pretty safe bet with how weak I see the field at the moment).
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) - 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Brazil -.5 Venezuela (-189) 1.89 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) - 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
Sweden/Germany under 2.5 (-107) 1.07 units to win 1 unit
South Korea/France under 2 (+201) 1 unit to win 2.01 units
Norway E England (+107) 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Japan -.5 Netherlands (-122) 1.22 unit to win 1 units
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
Thanks for the explanation, most of that makes sense. Maybe you can find a red, white and blue sombrero.
Without following Mexico like you do, I had in my head that a US/MEX final should be roughly a coin-flip, although I was perhaps weighting the home-field advantage more heavily than you. This was making me think that both the US and Mexico could actually be +EV at the current prices which is why I wanted to know what made you like Mexico so much more.
FWIW, my impression is that Jozy will be fine barring a setback (which is of course certainly possible).
Peru to Advance (-175) 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Columbia/Argentina over 2 (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Brazil -.5 Paraguay (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
Japan over 1.5 goals (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
USA/China under 2.5 (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units
England E Canada (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
USA/China under 2.5 (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units
England E Canada (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
FWIW, without actually capping or running numbers or anything, I like these quite a bit from following the WC as closely as you know I do. Was pretty surprised to see Canada favored like that. GL.
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) - 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Chile to win Copa America (+260) 1.5 units to win 3.9 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3000) - .2 units to win 6 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3400) .1 unit to win 3.4 units
Columbia/Argentina over 2 (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Brazil -.5 Paraguay (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) - 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
USA/China under 2.5 (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units
England E Canada (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
FWIW, without actually capping or running numbers or anything, I like these quite a bit from following the WC as closely as you know I do. Was pretty surprised to see Canada favored like that. GL.
*Wondering if I'll ever start actually making bets like these after posting how much I like/agree with them*
Pending Plays...
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Chile to win Copa America (+260) 1.5 units to win 3.9 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3000) .2 units to win 6 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3400) .1 unit to win 3.4 units
Chile HT/Chile FT (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
Germany/USA under 1.5 (+191) 1 unit to win 1.91 units
England +.5 Japan (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
I don't watch much soccer, but it seems like you don't have to do a whole lot to get a penalty kick in the two semi-final games. 3 out 4 the 4 calls looked borderline at best. The U.S. call may have been the worst. Not only was she outside the box, but she initiated the contact in the first place.
I don't watch much soccer, but it seems like you don't have to do a whole lot to get a penalty kick in the two semi-final games. 3 out 4 the 4 calls looked borderline at best. The U.S. call may have been the worst. Not only was she outside the box, but she initiated the contact in the first place.
They were all bad calls. Japan's was out of the box too.
Messi doesn't score (-150) 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Gold Cup
Panama -.5 Haiti (-176) 1.76 units to win 1 unit
USA -1, -1.5 Honduras (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units
USA wins group A (-335) 1.675 units to win .5 units
Costa Rica wins group B (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Mexico wins group C (-525) 2.625 units to win .5 units
Women's World Cup
Germany/England over 4.5 (+358) 1 unit to win 3.58 units
Great respect for your knowledge and willingness to share.
Your early call for Chile to hoist the Copa America trophy was masterful. As was your play on Costa Rica vs. Spain in the WWC.
Do you see any opportunities at all in tonight's final for the women?
I think both the side and total are priced correctly. The prop that I came closest to playing was USA to win both halves at +495, but am passing I think.
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
USA wins group A (-335) 1.675 units to win .5 units
Costa Rica wins group B (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Mexico wins group C (-525) 2.625 units to win .5 units
Panama -.5 Haiti (-176) 1.76 units to win 1 unit
USA -.5 Honduras (-285) 2.85 units to win 1 unit
USA -1, -1.5 Honduras (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Jamaica/Costa Rica over 2 (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
Comments
Gonna be wearing green to the final? (Although it seems like they wear black or red now.)
EDIT: Just looked at the odds for the heck of it and on a more serious note... With the US and Mexico virtually the same odds, why do you like Mexico so much more? Also, how much (if any) did you downgrade CR b/c of Navas being out?
You'll be able to find me easily at least...I'll be the only guy wearing a sombrero in the Outlaws section.
The play is hugely due to the favorable draw that Mexico has vs. our draw. On paper, I think that Mexico has a little bit better squad than us at the moment (especially with Jones out and the questions surrounding Jozy). However, most if not all of that is neutralized by our prior success against Mexico on US soil should we end up meeting them in the final. I'd pretty much consider a US-Mexico game in the final to be a coin flip (with Mexico probably being a slight favorite). I've got the US, Mexico,and Costa Rica (even without Navas) a pretty big distance ahead of the rest of the pack, and think that the gap between US/Mexico and Costa Rica is much smaller than the gap between Costa Rica and the Panama/Jamaica tier of teams. I just don't think that Mexico is priced correctly due to that easy road to the final (of course this is all dependent on us, Mexico, and Costa Rica winning our groups, but it's a pretty safe bet with how weak I see the field at the moment).
Pending plays...
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) - 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Brazil -.5 Venezuela (-189) 1.89 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) - 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
Sweden/Germany under 2.5 (-107) 1.07 units to win 1 unit
South Korea/France under 2 (+201) 1 unit to win 2.01 units
Norway E England (+107) 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Japan -.5 Netherlands (-122) 1.22 unit to win 1 units
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
Without following Mexico like you do, I had in my head that a US/MEX final should be roughly a coin-flip, although I was perhaps weighting the home-field advantage more heavily than you. This was making me think that both the US and Mexico could actually be +EV at the current prices which is why I wanted to know what made you like Mexico so much more.
FWIW, my impression is that Jozy will be fine barring a setback (which is of course certainly possible).
Peru to win Copa America (+3000) .2 units to win 6 units
Peru to Advance (-175) 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Columbia/Argentina over 2 (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Brazil -.5 Paraguay (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
Japan over 1.5 goals (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
USA/China under 2.5 (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units
England E Canada (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3400) .1 unit to win 3.4 units
FWIW, without actually capping or running numbers or anything, I like these quite a bit from following the WC as closely as you know I do. Was pretty surprised to see Canada favored like that. GL.
P.S. Check your email when you have time.
Chile to win Copa America (+260) 1.5 units to win 3.9 units
Pending Plays...
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) - 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Chile to win Copa America (+260) 1.5 units to win 3.9 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3000) - .2 units to win 6 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3400) .1 unit to win 3.4 units
Columbia/Argentina over 2 (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Brazil -.5 Paraguay (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) - 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
USA/China under 2.5 (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units
England E Canada (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
*Wondering if I'll ever start actually making bets like these after posting how much I like/agree with them*
Nice job on the under. Go Lionesses!
England E Canada (+155) 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Chile HT/Chile FT (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Women's World Cup
Germany/USA under 1.5 (+191) 1 unit to win 1.91 units
Part two.
England +.5 Japan (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Pending Plays...
Copa America
Chile to win Copa America (+590) 1 unit to win 5.9 units
Chile to win Copa America (+260) 1.5 units to win 3.9 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3000) .2 units to win 6 units
Peru to win Copa America (+3400) .1 unit to win 3.4 units
Chile HT/Chile FT (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Women's World Cup
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Germany doesn't win the World Cup (-230) 2.3 units to win 1 unit
Germany/USA under 1.5 (+191) 1 unit to win 1.91 units
England +.5 Japan (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
Friendly tonight
Mexico -.5 Honduras (-166) 2.49 units to win 1.5 units
Gold Cup
USA -.5 Honduras (-285) 2.85 units to win 1 unit
Paraguay/Peru over 2.5 (-146) 1.46 units to win 1 unit
Jamaica/Costa Rica over 2 (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
Japan under 1 goal (+128) 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Poor Chicharito. He never stood a chance of staying healthy after I made this play. At least I didn't use my powers against a US player this time.
Sweet.
They were all bad calls. Japan's was out of the box too.
Messi doesn't score (-150) 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Gold Cup
Panama -.5 Haiti (-176) 1.76 units to win 1 unit
USA -1, -1.5 Honduras (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units
USA wins group A (-335) 1.675 units to win .5 units
Costa Rica wins group B (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Mexico wins group C (-525) 2.625 units to win .5 units
Women's World Cup
Germany/England over 4.5 (+358) 1 unit to win 3.58 units
Your early call for Chile to hoist the Copa America trophy was masterful. As was your play on Costa Rica vs. Spain in the WWC.
Do you see any opportunities at all in tonight's final for the women?
I think both the side and total are priced correctly. The prop that I came closest to playing was USA to win both halves at +495, but am passing I think.
Pending Plays...
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Mexico to win CONCACAF Gold Cup (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
USA wins group A (-335) 1.675 units to win .5 units
Costa Rica wins group B (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Mexico wins group C (-525) 2.625 units to win .5 units
Panama -.5 Haiti (-176) 1.76 units to win 1 unit
USA -.5 Honduras (-285) 2.85 units to win 1 unit
USA -1, -1.5 Honduras (+104) 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Jamaica/Costa Rica over 2 (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
Thanks. I've hit the winner on the U20, Copa America, and Women's World Cup. Let's just hope that ends now and I made the wrong call in the Gold Cup.