Bayern Munich beats Porto 2-0 (+520) - .25 units to win 1.3 units
Don't get involved in the Champions League very often, but think this is +EV based upon the result that it gets Bayern (and the fact that if they do get up 2-0, they should be looking to sit a lot deeper and protect the score).
Bayern Munich looks awesome, this game reminds me a lot of the Germany/Brazil game.
I'll update my record with this one included as a loss (If this were some 3rd world country, I'd hope for fan violence to give me "no action", but think they'll be ok in Germany).
What the heck is the deal with the Toronto-Manchester City friendly tonight? I don't know which team it's worse for. If you're Toronto, you've got MLS games both last weekend and this weekend and are already a little bit on the thin side, so a meaningless friendly is the last thing you need or want. And if you're Man City, you just finished a grueling Premier League campaign a few days ago, and then you're forced to get on a plane and fly across the Atlantic to play a friendly that means nothing? And this game is actually on ESPN2 tonight? I think I'd rather stare at Pablo Mastroeni's mustache for two hours than watch what should be a horrible game tonight.
U20 World Cup games tonight (actually 6/2 since they're after midnight)...
Ukraine/Myanmar under 3.5 (-102) 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Panama E, +.5 Austria (-106) 1.06 units to win 1 unit
USA -.5 New Zealand (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Uruguay E, -.5 Mexico (+129) 1 unit to win 1.29 units (would have played 2 units, but limits are low)
Senegal +.5, +1 Columbia (+119) 1 unit to win 1.19 units
Nigeria -1.5, -2 North Korea (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Uzbekistan -.5 Germany (+1171) .2 units to win 2.342 units
Brazil/Hungary over 3, 3.5 (-129) 1.29 units to win 1 unit
China/Canada over 2.5 (+138) 1 unit to win 1.38 units
Costa Rica -.5 Spain (+1470) .2 units to win 2.94 units
Costa Rica +2 Spain (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
I watched it on tape (though I did fast forward through parts of it)...It was just a really weird game. Honduras looked like they were sleepwalking through the first half and allowed Fiji to hang around. Honduras even had a goal that was called off with a really close offsides call. Then Fiji finally got a chance, took advantage, and the Honduras keeper made a terrible play on the ball with what should have been a save and it was 1-0. Then another poor clearance from Honduras and 2-0. Then a freak own goal and 3-0. Then suddenly Honduras woke up and started playing and completely dominated the second half with chance after chance, but could never score (little of everything, a few nice saves, over passing, not passing and taking horrible shots when they should have passed, etc). Stats were crazy, I think Fiji had 3 shots on goal and scored on all 3. Your link gave the stats a little different than they gave them on the game, as I think they credited Honduras with 30 shots and 66% of possession or something like that. A "just" result probably would have been something like a 1 or 2 to nothing win for Honduras based on the game itself, but Fiji took advantage of their chances against the run of play.
Comments
Bayern Munich beats Porto 2-0 (+520) - .25 units to win 1.3 units
Don't get involved in the Champions League very often, but think this is +EV based upon the result that it gets Bayern (and the fact that if they do get up 2-0, they should be looking to sit a lot deeper and protect the score).
I'll update my record with this one included as a loss (If this were some 3rd world country, I'd hope for fan violence to give me "no action", but think they'll be ok in Germany).
YTD Result: +11.26 units (ROI: +26.5%)
Chile to win Copa America (+590) - 1 unit to win 5.9 units
I've had my eye on this one for a while, and it's kept ticking up. Hopefully I'm hitting it at the right time.
USA to win Women's World Cup (+300) - 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Friday, 6/12
Bolivia +1 Mexico (+103) 2 units to win 2.06 units
Bolivia -.5 Mexico (+604) .5 units to win 3.02 units
On this one too. Also played No Colombia at pinny.
Fading Mexico. Feel like they keep getting overvalued in this tournament when sending the A team to the Gold Cup.
Cool, feel free to hit up my email if you want to discuss any of these games, gonna be pretty seriously into this one.
What the heck is the deal with the Toronto-Manchester City friendly tonight? I don't know which team it's worse for. If you're Toronto, you've got MLS games both last weekend and this weekend and are already a little bit on the thin side, so a meaningless friendly is the last thing you need or want. And if you're Man City, you just finished a grueling Premier League campaign a few days ago, and then you're forced to get on a plane and fly across the Atlantic to play a friendly that means nothing? And this game is actually on ESPN2 tonight? I think I'd rather stare at Pablo Mastroeni's mustache for two hours than watch what should be a horrible game tonight.
England -.5 Morocco (-174) 1.74 units to win 1 unit
Ukraine -1 New Zealand (+121) 1 unit to win 1.21 units
Fiji +4.5 Germany (+192) 1 unit to win 1.92 units
Honduras E Uzbekistan (+122) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Updated Result: +8.74 units (ROI: +18.5%)
Ukraine/Myanmar under 3.5 (-102) 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Panama E, +.5 Austria (-106) 1.06 units to win 1 unit
USA -.5 New Zealand (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Uruguay E, -.5 Mexico (+129) 1 unit to win 1.29 units (would have played 2 units, but limits are low)
Senegal +.5, +1 Columbia (+119) 1 unit to win 1.19 units
Saturday, 6/6
New Zealand +.5, +1 Netherlands (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
New Zealand -.5 Netherlands (+345) .5 units to win 1.725 units
Sunday, 6/7
Thailand +6.5 Norway (-150) 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Monday, 6/8
Ecuador/Cameroon under 2.5 (-137) 1.37 units to win 1 unit
Sweden -1.5 Nigeria (-103) 1.03 units to win 1 unit
6/8
Japan -5 Switzerland (-159) 1.59 units to win 1 unit
Japan -1 Switzerland (+107) 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Nigeria -1.5, -2 North Korea (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Uzbekistan -.5 Germany (+1171) .2 units to win 2.342 units
Brazil/Hungary over 3, 3.5 (-129) 1.29 units to win 1 unit
Panama +.5 Ghana (+117) 1 unit to win 1.17 units
Argentina -.5 Austria (-118) 1.18 units to win 1 unit
France -.5 Netherlands (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Senegal -.5 Qatar (-190) 1.9 units to win 1 unit
China/Canada over 2.5 (+138) 1 unit to win 1.38 units
Costa Rica -.5 Spain (+1470) .2 units to win 2.94 units
Costa Rica +2 Spain (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Updated Result: +8.005 units (ROI: +14.5%)
England -2 China (-159) 1.59 units to win 1 unit
Honduras was -5.5
Uruguay E, -.5 Mali (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
U20 World Cup tomorrow night...
Uzbekistan -2.5 Fiji (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Nigeria/Hungary over 2.5 (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
I watched it on tape (though I did fast forward through parts of it)...It was just a really weird game. Honduras looked like they were sleepwalking through the first half and allowed Fiji to hang around. Honduras even had a goal that was called off with a really close offsides call. Then Fiji finally got a chance, took advantage, and the Honduras keeper made a terrible play on the ball with what should have been a save and it was 1-0. Then another poor clearance from Honduras and 2-0. Then a freak own goal and 3-0. Then suddenly Honduras woke up and started playing and completely dominated the second half with chance after chance, but could never score (little of everything, a few nice saves, over passing, not passing and taking horrible shots when they should have passed, etc). Stats were crazy, I think Fiji had 3 shots on goal and scored on all 3. Your link gave the stats a little different than they gave them on the game, as I think they credited Honduras with 30 shots and 66% of possession or something like that. A "just" result probably would have been something like a 1 or 2 to nothing win for Honduras based on the game itself, but Fiji took advantage of their chances against the run of play.
France -1.5 Morocco (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units