Alright. Good luck to you. If you carry it out for 300 bets or so, you should have something to go on with your CLV and I am sure will get some opinions of your model.
Ok I think I am starting to clear my head a little on this one "fixed profit" betting is whatever it takes to get 1 unit.
I like this because you are putting more of your money on the higher win% games and not using some imaginery perceived "edge" to create Kelly type bets. I like this you are putting more on higher% winners and increasing the length of your bankroll. Thanks Dr H and obi, I get it now for this anyway, I hope!
I bet different market then most of you folks but pretty sure the whole bet one unit (or bet to win one unit) is just to show a non polluted record and used for record keeping purposes when in reality advantage bettors are likely to vary bet sizes according to win% and +ev regardless of how risk adverse they are assuming betting limits not a issue.
I bet different market then most of you folks but pretty sure the whole bet one unit (or bet to win one unit) is just to show a non polluted record and used for record keeping purposes when in reality advantage bettors are likely to vary bet sizes according to win% and +ev regardless of how risk adverse they are assuming betting limits not a issue.
Pretty much. It's mostly for simplicity and b/c it has been a pretty standard way of keeping records over the years even though it may not be mathematically optimal (just like making posters use WA lines from 2-3 books is done for simplicity, to make records standardized and easily comparable, and to show the records can be replicated without too much trouble). Naturally we expect players to take advantage of rogue lines, reduce vig, vary their bet sizes, etc. in their own betting.
I bet different market then most of you folks but pretty sure the whole bet one unit (or bet to win one unit) is just to show a non polluted record and used for record keeping purposes when in reality advantage bettors are likely to vary bet sizes according to win% and +ev regardless of how risk adverse they are assuming betting limits not a issue.
fixed profit betting helped me this week since i implemented it and for the season it would have really helped me where I over bet my dogs and lost. I would have better numbers using fixed profit. I dont believe in betting an edge because nobody knows their edge to vary their bet on sports betting but fixed profit works like a dream!
Hypothetical lets assume you have gift of knowing when MLB aces will not start when they are scheduled to before the markets react to this information. You do not even bother to research any further and bet blindly . You have averaged a 30% ROI the last 10 years . You are not sure what each individual edge is as it various pending the replacements and other information that changes frequently . Somedays you end up betting both teams in the same game as the aces for both teams will not start and these days you are just paying vig which is -EV.
The worst thing you can do here is overbet , when you overbet your edge is irrelevant as you will go broke.
The second worst thing you can do is bet to little such as bet to win 1% of your bankroll every bet.
The ideal approach is to bet less then your risk of ruin and your acceptable tolerance to variance maximizing your growth and quality of life.
Would you agree with that? If you do then you are basically replicating the Kelly criteria
Hypothetical lets assume you have gift of knowing when MLB aces will not start when they are scheduled to before the markets react to this information. You do not even bother to research any further and bet blindly . You have averaged a 30% ROI the last 10 years . You are not sure what each individual edge is as it various pending the replacements and other information that changes frequently . Somedays you end up betting both teams in the same game as the aces for both teams will not start and these days you are just paying vig which is -EV.
The worst thing you can do here is overbet , when you overbet your edge is irrelevant as you will go broke.
The second worst thing you can do is bet to little such as bet to win 1% of your bankroll every bet.
The ideal approach is to bet less then your risk of ruin and your acceptable tolerance to variance maximizing your growth and quality of life.
Would you agree with that? If you do then you are basically replicating the Kelly criteria
LOL....it took him 9 pages in this thread to come up with 'fixed profit betting'....which is the same thing as what he had been told at the beginning of this thread.
Hypothetical lets assume you have gift of knowing when MLB aces will not start when they are scheduled to before the markets react to this information. You do not even bother to research any further and bet blindly . You have averaged a 30% ROI the last 10 years . You are not sure what each individual edge is as it various pending the replacements and other information that changes frequently . Somedays you end up betting both teams in the same game as the aces for both teams will not start and these days you are just paying vig which is -EV.
The worst thing you can do here is overbet , when you overbet your edge is irrelevant as you will go broke.
The second worst thing you can do is bet to little such as bet to win 1% of your bankroll every bet.
The ideal approach is to bet less then your risk of ruin and your acceptable tolerance to variance maximizing your growth and quality of life.
Would you agree with that? If you do then you are basically replicating the Kelly criteria
you are trying to imply that we kinda know we have a 30% edge, maybe not on each game but on some and less than others, so again we really dont know anything about that specific game so we bet assuming 30% edge that would be equal bets each time using kelly which would be the same thing as flat bets.
My understanding of using kelly for sports betting is this
I like the yankees, I think the yankees are -160 and the line is -120, I plug those numbers my guess into the kelly calculator and bet accordingly. I think A 99.99% of bettors have zero clue what the closing line will actually be, B and people that say well I get 4% CLV on bets where i think a team -160 and the line -120 so I will use that for kelly. Those two moves for me are big mistakes and can break someone quickly that really dont know their edge. Fixed profit betting is the best! I think its a close cousin of Kelly but I have not confimed that with ancestry.com
LOL....it took him 9 pages in this thread to come up with 'fixed profit betting'....which is the same thing as what he had been told at the beginning of this thread.
why are you so mean dude? calm down take your pills, use breathing techniques!
if the forum gets you too upset back it down, only post on certain days or something, my heavens, LMAO
Hypothetical lets assume you have gift of knowing when MLB aces will not start when they are scheduled to before the markets react to this information. You do not even bother to research any further and bet blindly .
Cmon Rich, where are you gonna get down without listed or adjustments? Try another hypothetical.
Cmon Rich, where are you gonna get down without listed or adjustments? Try another hypothetical.
I think he is trying to say we are better off betting our edge. I dont know my edge and that is my argument but I do know faves and dogs and that is why fixed profit betting for me seems to work great but it is I am sure a very quick way to get shut down in a real hurry by books, you cant hide in the weeds very well when you are betting 137.26 and next bet 185.42 that to shops I am sure looks like arbitrage or something, but they have nothing to fear of me, I am as sharp as a nerf football!
Comments
I like this because you are putting more of your money on the higher win% games and not using some imaginery perceived "edge" to create Kelly type bets. I like this you are putting more on higher% winners and increasing the length of your bankroll. Thanks Dr H and obi, I get it now for this anyway, I hope!
Pretty much. It's mostly for simplicity and b/c it has been a pretty standard way of keeping records over the years even though it may not be mathematically optimal (just like making posters use WA lines from 2-3 books is done for simplicity, to make records standardized and easily comparable, and to show the records can be replicated without too much trouble). Naturally we expect players to take advantage of rogue lines, reduce vig, vary their bet sizes, etc. in their own betting.
fixed profit betting helped me this week since i implemented it and for the season it would have really helped me where I over bet my dogs and lost. I would have better numbers using fixed profit. I dont believe in betting an edge because nobody knows their edge to vary their bet on sports betting but fixed profit works like a dream!
The worst thing you can do here is overbet , when you overbet your edge is irrelevant as you will go broke.
The second worst thing you can do is bet to little such as bet to win 1% of your bankroll every bet.
The ideal approach is to bet less then your risk of ruin and your acceptable tolerance to variance maximizing your growth and quality of life.
Would you agree with that? If you do then you are basically replicating the Kelly criteria
LOL....it took him 9 pages in this thread to come up with 'fixed profit betting'....which is the same thing as what he had been told at the beginning of this thread.
you are trying to imply that we kinda know we have a 30% edge, maybe not on each game but on some and less than others, so again we really dont know anything about that specific game so we bet assuming 30% edge that would be equal bets each time using kelly which would be the same thing as flat bets.
My understanding of using kelly for sports betting is this
I like the yankees, I think the yankees are -160 and the line is -120, I plug those numbers my guess into the kelly calculator and bet accordingly. I think A 99.99% of bettors have zero clue what the closing line will actually be, B and people that say well I get 4% CLV on bets where i think a team -160 and the line -120 so I will use that for kelly. Those two moves for me are big mistakes and can break someone quickly that really dont know their edge. Fixed profit betting is the best! I think its a close cousin of Kelly but I have not confimed that with ancestry.com
why are you so mean dude? calm down take your pills, use breathing techniques!
if the forum gets you too upset back it down, only post on certain days or something, my heavens, LMAO
Cmon Rich, where are you gonna get down without listed or adjustments? Try another hypothetical.
I think he is trying to say we are better off betting our edge. I dont know my edge and that is my argument but I do know faves and dogs and that is why fixed profit betting for me seems to work great but it is I am sure a very quick way to get shut down in a real hurry by books, you cant hide in the weeds very well when you are betting 137.26 and next bet 185.42 that to shops I am sure looks like arbitrage or something, but they have nothing to fear of me, I am as sharp as a nerf football!