I thank you dearly for the detailed explanation but I still dont get it.
What advantage would either player have by betting X to 1 and .X to 1 on games EXCEPT for the go broke delay?
can you do the Rockies game today for me using my assumptions, how much should I bet on the Rockies I got them at -130 and they are sitting at -122 right now and I am ready to bet!!!!!!!!
which terms do you see me being muddled on and if I am please if you can clear them up for me, I want to make sure we are talking apples apples not apples oranges!
its so funny to me you guys get so pissed off and rude, I love sports betting, I can argue discuss write listen read reply all day every day cause I just have passion and love for it! I know I sound like an asshole all the time but its just because I am hard headed and it has to be clear to me. I am a passionate sports bettor. I love getting +CLV and I love "knowing" which way the line is going most of the time. That to me is super awesome!!!!!!!!! I am passionate and may be totally wrong ALL the time but I do have passion and drive for the game! you folks should respect that!
here is an example maybe this will make it easier because I still dont see how you have expected value when you dont know what the line will close at
Looks like you're obsessed with 'being able to predict where the line will close at'.
Pretty much a faulty way of thinking. It doesn't work like that. The process is as follows: You have a model/powerranking for a certain sport. As a result every team has a price according to YOUR model. Now the bookies open their lines and for 3 teams you see that the market line is undervalueing the strenght of those teams. As a result of YOUR price vs the market price, you make the 3 bets, as you expect those teams to overperform their current price.
It's only AFTER you've placed your bets that you can sit and wait to see whether the market agrees with your assesment or whether the line moves the other way, basically telling you that the market doesn't agree with your powerranking. So stop obsessing with being able to predict which way the market will move, because indeed: you don't know. All you know, and all you can act on is 'your model's price' vs 'the market'.
Rockies today I have them -129 and bought them at -117 (they currently are sitting at -122)
I bet the BOL MAX on them which was 292.50
My question is if I was using Kelly how much should I have bet on the Rockies?
I don't know your bankroll, nor do I know your staking method (half Kelly, quarter Kelly, Full Kelly)....so how do you want me to answer that?
What is my expected value on the Rockies game today?
Your expected value is 100/117 is 0.85 cents on the dollar.
Now if you did beat the closing line, only then can you assume that your bet had *Positive Expected Value*
If you bet -117 and it closed -122 you can calculate yourself how much of an edge those 5 cents are over the long run.
Looks like you're obsessed with 'being able to predict where the line will close at'.
Pretty much a faulty way of thinking. It doesn't work like that. The process is as follows: You have a model/powerranking for a certain sport. As a result every team has a price according to YOUR model. Now the bookies open their lines and for 3 teams you see that the market line is undervalueing the strenght of those teams. As a result of YOUR price vs the market price, you make the 3 bets, as you expect those teams to overperform their current price.
of course beating the line is all that matters. everything else is LUCK flat ass LUCK good or bad
Your expected value is 100/117 is 0.85 cents on the dollar.
Now if you did beat the closing line, only then can you assume that your bet had *Positive Expected Value*
If you bet -117 and it closed -122 you can calculate yourself how much of an edge those 5 cents are over the long run.
of course that is not the expected value UNLESS the line closes there come on.
I dont have a clue if the Yankees will win today and neither do you. The only chance I have of making money on the Yankees is doing what the best in the business do and that is getting an edge on the game. I know that if I get an edge ( a dime a quarter) I will win more than I lose period. I mean this is how the shops make money, they build in an edge.
If I bet the Rockies a million times at -117 and they close at -122 I have an edge, nothing else is more predictive of success in sports betting! Well including margin it needs to be a hair more but you get the point!
of course that is not the expected value UNLESS the line closes there come on.
You really don't seem to get it. That is the expected value of the bet you placed.
Again: whether it has *Positive Expected Value* depends on the strenght of your model/powerrankings. Which will lead you to have positive CLV in the long run. You are clearly mixing up concepts.
guys say stuff like Kershaw pitches good outside with the wind in his face on tuesdays and they say Dbacks hit him really well on days he is coming of 4 days rest and blah blah blah and all that is noise or in the line. So you ask why are the dodgers -220 because Kershaw pitches good outside, has a low era, big feet, causes fly balls and plays good in a blue shirt and whatever other crap bettors put in the mix and then the experts come in and eat up the line value and move it to near EV and it closes!
why do you constantly say "I done all I can, I cant help more" keep talking about it, maybe we learn something,, maybe we get something from the discussion, it does not have to be black and white or right or wrong it can just be a discussion to open our minds!.
"Expected Value
The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet. "
what is your probability of winning if you dont know the closing line? Please dont tell me you bet kelly based on your modeling now that would be insane! A model is very important to get a good guess but you cant bet on a model, how damn close is your model to the actual closing line mine is not very close a dime or so off both ways, example my guess is -120 and it can close anwhere but average wise at -110 to -130 THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO KELLY ON!
I asked Joseph Buchdahl the question and he answered
my question
"Using Kelly 4 sports betting isnt very good because kelly requires EV to calculate and theres no way to calculate EV without the probablity of the result known when betting. and even if you had the Closing line you still might not have a truly effecient market"
his answer
"Fair point, and one reason why I wouldn't necessarily use Kelly. So on average you might have a fairly accurate assessment of what your EV is, but if the variance in individual bets is large, I wonder how this might influence the risk of using EV. A topic for investigation maybe."
You can't use the Kelly system unless you know what your edge is which is basically unknowable and subject to change. You can have a belief or an estimation and that estimation will be made using closing lines. That is why people pay attention to closing lines.
I think I am now so lost that I have no freaking clue literally nothing ! LOST In space
1 kelly requires data I dont have or cant accurately guess and I say 99% of the world cant either
2 flat betting is exactly like it says flat betting!
3 I can see on NBA NHL and MLB where I perceive a bigger edge, I have higher win%s and higher CLV numbers so betting more on these would be ideal but HOW MUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who the heck knows LOL, I really dont think anyone.
People say I ran 2000000000000 results through a kelly sim and it came out 8 zillion dollars more than flat betting but we all know that is not even close to accurate because lines are alive and breathe. Use Kelly on a Pats game in your kelly sim where you bet before Brady gets arrested pre game and the game closes 6 to 7 points different, run that 10000 times using kelly pre arrest and see how much you like Kelly then.
Anyway I am so lost and need help, to bad I am so hated and such an asshole that not even my own mother would help me figure it out!
Yes. it requires data which you do not have and 99% of the world can't access. More like 99.999%.
Kelly is a theoretical concept. It is employed by highly sophisticated gamblers that like to sit around and do probability equations just for fun. That is not you.
Using Kelly is like one of those old western TV shows where they are hauling nitro in a wagon. The thing is going to blow any minute and the horses are ready to bolt.
I think I am going to employ what I have read is the worst ideas out there. I am going to bet 2.X% and X being the current win% I have for the perceived edge I have at bet time! What you think of that? I am adjusting for my edge but so small you wont even see it but I will feel better knowing I am baby step more maximizing my bets!
I think I am going to employ what I have read is the worst ideas out there. I am going to bet 2.X% and X being the current win% I have for the perceived edge I have at bet time! What you think of that? I am adjusting for my edge but so small you wont even see it but I will feel better knowing I am baby step more maximizing my bets!
Bad idea. You need to bet 1% at most. If you are high volume probably 0.5%. Do that for a couple of seasons and if you find you have an edge, increase it.
If you have an edge, you can literally turn hundreds into hundreds of thousands. But there is no getting money back once it is gone. Proceed cautiously and the gambling world is yours for the taking.
Oh I know its a bad idea, I called it the worst idea but I cant find any other way to try and maximize where I can clearly see their being a bigger edge in my bets
Oh I know its a bad idea, I called it the worst idea but I cant find any other way to try and maximize where I can clearly see their being a bigger edge in my bets
OK, well you need to proceed as a recreational gambler and bet 1% on your average bet and when you think you have a bet you bet more. If you think, you have a GREAT bet, you back up the truck and it doesn't work, you reload. You should come out ahead on the big bets over time and if not, it was fun trying.
when do rec gamblers transition to something different what is the morph process? I feel like a rec gambler is a guy slamming beers dropping a 5 spot on the Knicks 2 minutes before it starts on ESPN! I have 1 complete season of over 3% CLV on the NBA and my 2018 MLB season has 28 plays so far and I have 1.34% CLV and i think that will continue to grow since I just completed the model 3 weeks ago and now I am tweaking based on daily game data!
or is the first rule you have to be 75 years or older to even be considered?
when do rec gamblers transition to something different what is the morph process? I feel like a rec gambler is a guy slamming beers dropping a 5 spot on the Knicks 2 minutes before it starts on ESPN! I have 1 complete season of over 3% CLV on the NBA and my 2018 MLB season has 28 plays so far and I have 1.34% CLV and i think that will continue to grow since I just completed the model 3 weeks ago and now I am tweaking based on daily game data!
or is the first rule you have to be 75 years or older to even be considered?
You've got a major problem here danshan. You want to model but you want to bet like a rec gambler. These two worlds cannot co-exist. One must be destroyed.
If you are going to model, you have to get ready to take on all these other modelers and have a better mouse trap. That is going to be hard.
If you are going to handicap, you've got a chance taking your shots.
Your biggest asset as a gambler is to know your limitations. You are just getting started and optimistic. That is why people here don't like dealing with you. They give you the info and you reject it and want to do things your way. You've got to taking some beatings before you learn your limitations.
what part is the rec gambler? I just see all these guys on here saying OK look I am so smart I am going to build a model just like the model they basically have at pinnacle and every other book that sets their own lines. they get the same math degree and do the same stats classes and they all use python and R and blah blah and they say its really hard to beat the books of course it is. it is damn near impossible when you are ALL doing the exact same thing and then betting up against someone doing the same thing and paying a nickel or dime everytime, come on we know that worked during prohibition but not now! I model but I dont model anything like anyone else I know or heard of does. I surely dont do any of that win probability crap. I do not handicap I dont know shit about who is playing good right now and most of that which I consider noise. I flat out know I cant make money handicapping but I 100% believe I can make money beating the line!
but now that i have ranted out again I ask again what am I doing like a rec gambler? I can as you know can handle the critcism dont hold anything back please! i appreciate any and all comments!
I wish more people would tell me where I am so stupid it can really help me I know that. i got this far on that info, I made 40 grand on the NBA this year, i dont think before this forum I ever made money for the total of a season on anything except my crazy SDQL which starts in May again BTW
what part is the rec gambler? I just see all these guys on here saying OK look I am so smart I am going to build a model just like the model they basically have at pinnacle and every other book that sets their own lines. they get the same math degree and do the same stats classes and they all use python and R and blah blah and they say its really hard to beat the books of course it is. it is damn near impossible when you are ALL doing the exact same thing and then betting up against someone doing the same thing and paying a nickel or dime everytime, come on we know that worked during prohibition but not now! I model but I dont model anything like anyone else I know or heard of does. I surely dont do any of that win probability crap. I do not handicap I dont know shit about who is playing good right now and most of that which I consider noise. I flat out know I cant make money handicapping but I 100% believe I can make money beating the line!
but now that i have ranted out again I ask again what am I doing like a rec gambler? I can as you know can handle the critcism dont hold anything back please! i appreciate any and all comments!
Again, you want to model. If you model, you have to bet as a modeler. You've got to bet like I recommended to start at 0.5%. You don't like that idea because you want to bet 2% on your good bets. That is a rec gambler approach. A modeler is systematic in their approach and you have to establish a winning model before you can start assigning percentages to bets.
Yes, they are all doing the exact same thing. But they are working at it all day and night and are much smarter than you can even imagine. And they are all trying to outdo one another. At this point, they have the line about right.
So your only real chance is to either build a better model or handicap.
There is nothing wrong with being a rec gambler. If you are not going to make a living at it, you are a rec gambler. There is no room for ego in gambling.
I wish more people would tell me where I am so stupid it can really help me I know that. i got this far on that info, I made 40 grand on the NBA this year, i dont think before this forum I ever made money for the total of a season on anything except my crazy SDQL which starts in May again BTW
my DUMB(and I literally mean DUMB) sdql I made like 30k I was betting .8 btc I have no idea what the btc price was at the time but I think it was like 5 grand a game and the average line was like -191 or something i dont remember the tthread is here you can see it, I tracked the entire plays here on BT in that thread and made money.
NBA 217 games all bets were at .5 btc and the btc price went from shit 20grand a coin to 8ish at the end of my season. I won 4.673 BTC net for the year
my DUMB(and I literally mean DUMB) sdql I made like 30k I was betting .8 btc I have no idea what the btc price was at the time but I think it was like 5 grand a game and the average line was like -191 or something i dont remember the tthread is here you can see it, I tracked the entire plays here on BT in that thread and made money.
NBA 217 games all bets were at .5 btc and the btc price went from shit 20grand a coin to 8ish at the end of my season. I won 4.673 BTC net for the year
yes I agree with 3% positive CLV on the NBA that is probably not luck but the SDQL technically is really not luck but stupid as can be! so lets call the NBA not luck and the DUMB SDQL lucky as hell!!!! still my dumb SDQL has 10 straight +ROI seasons NO JOKE! and the dumb sdql has over 1500 plays in those 10 years !
OK, you had some positive CLV. As I said before that is a good sign. However, it is exceptionally unlikely that your model is good enough to win in the NBA over time.
I recommend taking $1K of that money and setting it aside so that one day, you will be able to say that you won money gambling,
My model kills it in the NBA, no doubt, I beat the line period in the NBA! I again do not model anything like anyone here at all in any way. I think doing the same thing as my opponent and giving them a free 5 cents is like flipping coins at -105 and that is what I think 99.99% of modelers are doing.
I can prove it to you in an hour as soon as BOL comes out with Soft ass openers, I can give you my bets and within seconds those lines will move my way. I am doing something that noone I know of is doing. I am not here to mess around, I am here to learn to win! and learning does not mean just sit back and believe everything someone says. You are required to even think about learning to ask why, if you dont ask why or question the answer you are probably not even listening
I can prove it to you in an hour as soon as BOL comes out with Soft ass openers, I can give you my bets and within seconds those lines will move my way. I am doing something that noone I know of is doing. I am not here to mess around, I am here to learn to win! and learning does not mean just sit back and believe everything someone says. You are required to even think about learning to ask why, if you dont ask why or question the answer you are probably not even listening
Comments
What advantage would either player have by betting X to 1 and .X to 1 on games EXCEPT for the go broke delay?
can you do the Rockies game today for me using my assumptions, how much should I bet on the Rockies I got them at -130 and they are sitting at -122 right now and I am ready to bet!!!!!!!!
Looks like you're obsessed with 'being able to predict where the line will close at'.
Pretty much a faulty way of thinking. It doesn't work like that. The process is as follows: You have a model/powerranking for a certain sport. As a result every team has a price according to YOUR model. Now the bookies open their lines and for 3 teams you see that the market line is undervalueing the strenght of those teams. As a result of YOUR price vs the market price, you make the 3 bets, as you expect those teams to overperform their current price.
It's only AFTER you've placed your bets that you can sit and wait to see whether the market agrees with your assesment or whether the line moves the other way, basically telling you that the market doesn't agree with your powerranking. So stop obsessing with being able to predict which way the market will move, because indeed: you don't know. All you know, and all you can act on is 'your model's price' vs 'the market'.
I don't know your bankroll, nor do I know your staking method (half Kelly, quarter Kelly, Full Kelly)....so how do you want me to answer that?
Your expected value is 100/117 is 0.85 cents on the dollar.
Now if you did beat the closing line, only then can you assume that your bet had *Positive Expected Value*
If you bet -117 and it closed -122 you can calculate yourself how much of an edge those 5 cents are over the long run.
of course beating the line is all that matters. everything else is LUCK flat ass LUCK good or bad
of course that is not the expected value UNLESS the line closes there come on.
If I bet the Rockies a million times at -117 and they close at -122 I have an edge, nothing else is more predictive of success in sports betting! Well including margin it needs to be a hair more but you get the point!
Off course it is, but you don't seem able to discern process from result
Taking Dr. H. as an example: .............Or just mighty good modelling............
You really don't seem to get it. That is the expected value of the bet you placed.
Again: whether it has *Positive Expected Value* depends on the strenght of your model/powerrankings. Which will lead you to have positive CLV in the long run. You are clearly mixing up concepts.
Can't help you more than this,
Good luck
"Expected Value
The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet. "
what is your probability of winning if you dont know the closing line? Please dont tell me you bet kelly based on your modeling now that would be insane! A model is very important to get a good guess but you cant bet on a model, how damn close is your model to the actual closing line mine is not very close a dime or so off both ways, example my guess is -120 and it can close anwhere but average wise at -110 to -130 THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO KELLY ON!
my question
"Using Kelly 4 sports betting isnt very good because kelly requires EV to calculate and theres no way to calculate EV without the probablity of the result known when betting. and even if you had the Closing line you still might not have a truly effecient market"
his answer
"Fair point, and one reason why I wouldn't necessarily use Kelly. So on average you might have a fairly accurate assessment of what your EV is, but if the variance in individual bets is large, I wonder how this might influence the risk of using EV. A topic for investigation maybe."
You can't use the Kelly system unless you know what your edge is which is basically unknowable and subject to change. You can have a belief or an estimation and that estimation will be made using closing lines. That is why people pay attention to closing lines.
1 kelly requires data I dont have or cant accurately guess and I say 99% of the world cant either
2 flat betting is exactly like it says flat betting!
3 I can see on NBA NHL and MLB where I perceive a bigger edge, I have higher win%s and higher CLV numbers so betting more on these would be ideal but HOW MUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who the heck knows LOL, I really dont think anyone.
People say I ran 2000000000000 results through a kelly sim and it came out 8 zillion dollars more than flat betting but we all know that is not even close to accurate because lines are alive and breathe. Use Kelly on a Pats game in your kelly sim where you bet before Brady gets arrested pre game and the game closes 6 to 7 points different, run that 10000 times using kelly pre arrest and see how much you like Kelly then.
Anyway I am so lost and need help, to bad I am so hated and such an asshole that not even my own mother would help me figure it out!
Yes. it requires data which you do not have and 99% of the world can't access. More like 99.999%.
Kelly is a theoretical concept. It is employed by highly sophisticated gamblers that like to sit around and do probability equations just for fun. That is not you.
Using Kelly is like one of those old western TV shows where they are hauling nitro in a wagon. The thing is going to blow any minute and the horses are ready to bolt.
Bad idea. You need to bet 1% at most. If you are high volume probably 0.5%. Do that for a couple of seasons and if you find you have an edge, increase it.
If you have an edge, you can literally turn hundreds into hundreds of thousands. But there is no getting money back once it is gone. Proceed cautiously and the gambling world is yours for the taking.
OK, well you need to proceed as a recreational gambler and bet 1% on your average bet and when you think you have a bet you bet more. If you think, you have a GREAT bet, you back up the truck and it doesn't work, you reload. You should come out ahead on the big bets over time and if not, it was fun trying.
or is the first rule you have to be 75 years or older to even be considered?
You've got a major problem here danshan. You want to model but you want to bet like a rec gambler. These two worlds cannot co-exist. One must be destroyed.
If you are going to model, you have to get ready to take on all these other modelers and have a better mouse trap. That is going to be hard.
If you are going to handicap, you've got a chance taking your shots.
Your biggest asset as a gambler is to know your limitations. You are just getting started and optimistic. That is why people here don't like dealing with you. They give you the info and you reject it and want to do things your way. You've got to taking some beatings before you learn your limitations.
but now that i have ranted out again I ask again what am I doing like a rec gambler? I can as you know can handle the critcism dont hold anything back please! i appreciate any and all comments!
Again, you want to model. If you model, you have to bet as a modeler. You've got to bet like I recommended to start at 0.5%. You don't like that idea because you want to bet 2% on your good bets. That is a rec gambler approach. A modeler is systematic in their approach and you have to establish a winning model before you can start assigning percentages to bets.
Yes, they are all doing the exact same thing. But they are working at it all day and night and are much smarter than you can even imagine. And they are all trying to outdo one another. At this point, they have the line about right.
So your only real chance is to either build a better model or handicap.
There is nothing wrong with being a rec gambler. If you are not going to make a living at it, you are a rec gambler. There is no room for ego in gambling.
On how many bets with what standard bet size?
NBA 217 games all bets were at .5 btc and the btc price went from shit 20grand a coin to 8ish at the end of my season. I won 4.673 BTC net for the year
That is called luck.
OK, you had some positive CLV. As I said before that is a good sign. However, it is exceptionally unlikely that your model is good enough to win in the NBA over time.
I recommend taking $1K of that money and setting it aside so that one day, you will be able to say that you won money gambling,
I can prove it to you in an hour as soon as BOL comes out with Soft ass openers, I can give you my bets and within seconds those lines will move my way. I am doing something that noone I know of is doing. I am not here to mess around, I am here to learn to win! and learning does not mean just sit back and believe everything someone says. You are required to even think about learning to ask why, if you dont ask why or question the answer you are probably not even listening
LOL
OK, keep us updated on the progress.