What methodology are you using to determine what the correct moneyline price is on a game?
Squiggly, take it easy with the big words JK. I have a progression that I go through in what I think is important. pitchers of course I assume (except for getaway day and Sunday's) the line up with be the same. I 'm a big believer in cycles so in short I don't have Math Model that I enter stats into a computer and come up with a number. I'm a big believer in KISS I find to many people Data mine to make a game say they want.
If I'm booking and you want the Angels My number is -160 Min. Seattle has scored 28 runs in the last 12 games and if you take out that explosion of 7 runs that leaves 21 runs in the last 11 games and 6 of those game were home games and yes against decent pitching just like Wilson. There just not hitting the ball. Now even though I believe it's a fair price I pass before I play. To me this is a game in April I know it's in doors but talking about prices I'm still of the mind set if I bet three games and there -130 -130 -180 if I lose the -180 I win 2 bets and win nothing if I lose two bets and win one I need to win two games to break even.
I know it's old school thinking But I haven't done badly over the past years in baseball and I would rather cook a nice meal for my family then sweat a -180 favorite. I want you to know if there's value in a number regardless of the price bet it I can't. Over the years I've gotten older and have become more of a recreational gambler playing a couple C notes a game sometimes a little less sometimes a little more. I don't chase I just try to grind.
Also for the most part I play angles and most of my angles are dogs and short favorites. but I do try to come up with what I think is a fair line.
Dodgers - 1.47 now -1.58 I cant understand how you see that +EV on Beckett.
You know why the redsox traded him right?
There were multiple reasons the Red Sox traded Beckett but none of them mean he is not still a decent major league pitcher whose propensity for giving up home runs should be reduced by the change in venue from Fenway to Chavez Ravine. In this game the Dodgers are at home, have the better lineup and a pitching matchup of Beckett vs a kid who should be in AAA. I'd like to only have to lay -140 on that.
Ok fair enough. You came in your thread and pointed out the line moved against you, it seemed like you were surprised the line moved against you, and wanted to talk about it. Understand if you dont
Ok fair enough. You came in your thread and pointed out the line moved against you, it seemed like you were surprised the line moved against you, and wanted to talk about it. Understand if you dont
Ok fair enough. You came in your thread and pointed out the line moved against you, it seemed like you were surprised the line moved against you, and wanted to talk about it. Understand if you dont
I was trying to display the increasingly lack of interconnectedness of the baseball market. Last Sunday, the market suggested that a Tigers team backed by Fister should be treated as near equals to that of an Angels team backed by Wilson. A few days later, intraday raids are either suggesting they are nowhere near to being comparable. Or you can take the more cynical approach and/or say the move was tactically phony and the changing dynamics of the market place plays provides a platform conducive for painting the screens closing prices.
There were multiple reasons the Red Sox traded Beckett but none of them mean he is not still a decent major league pitcher whose propensity for giving up home runs should be reduced by the change in venue from Fenway to Chavez Ravine. In this game the Dodgers are at home, have the better lineup and a pitching matchup of Beckett vs a kid who should be in AAA. I'd like to only have to lay -140 on that.
Received an email inquiring about why the market is fading Medlen (on track for a fifth straight start where the Pinnacle closes a decent amount below the open) despite him continuing to pitch well. I wouldn't necessarily construe this as a Medlen fade trade. Markets tend to fade numbers first, teams and players second. Teams and players tend to trade within a particular bandwidth, where the range is dictated by a variety of influences including the game specific fundamentals/match-ups. The natural occurrence of moves against a team/pitcher within the particular range are not necessarily fades since team/pitcher fades should represent insensitivity to current market pricing points. If you are not establishing a new pricing point on a team/pitcher, you are not fading that entity even if you are betting against them. You are fading a market mispricing.
What we saw with Medlen last year was a very dynamic and bullish pricing structure, where the market was continually upgrading his price all the way to the end of the season. It is natural for a pitcher that overachieved as much as Medlen to get priced below peak price the following season. But since start one, books opening prices on Medlen represented a very shallow downgrade to his peak price. The market moves against him the first couple of starts were pricing moves that were more representative of how the market was pricing him last August to mid September last year. A valuation still bullish and materially higher than his earlier starts. Books continue to ignore the market pricing signals (and appear to be taking the result-oriented approach instead) and the market continues to make slight downgrades to his prices to levels it sees better fit. There has not been any noticeable market valuation change from from start one up to today. The market is not fading Medlen and establishing new pricing points on him. At most, they are fading a valuation he supported for about 3 or 4 starts late last season when he was in clear bubble mode. If books continue to hang numbers similar to those 4 starts, he will likely continue to get bid down (even if he pitches well) as the market will continue to bet against a book mispricing.
Caveat: If the market can close Medlen out at +102 or higher, the market may be starting establish signs of fading Medlen.
Goats 4:06amPST even if your on the east coast is still very early for you. Having a bad night?It was a suggestion to a guy who has 13 posts and maybe he's $200/$300 player like myself which I haven't had a problem with them all the years I've been betting with them. You'll have to excuse me for making a suggestion.
Goats 4:06amPST even if your on the east coast is still very early for you. Having a bad night?It was a suggestion to a guy who has 13 posts and maybe he's $200/$300 player like myself which I haven't had a problem with them all the years I've been betting with them. You'll have to excuse me for making a suggestion.
FYI, I am east coast and always up before 7am on weekdays (unless I go back to bed). My wife's a teacher so I wake up when her alarm goes off and have never been a late sleeper so I usually just make coffee and stay up. I also tend to get off the comp at night and not stay up super late (that's why you'll see Tommy moderating at night while I rarely post).
In any case, didn't mean anything by my comment, sorry if it came off poorly. I recommend 5Dimes to pretty much everyone. Either you bet small enough that it's a great book or you use them until you get limited and then they may or may not be worthwhile anymore. I was just mentioning that 5Dimes having a line isn't necessarily a solution for many, but as you pointed out, it definitely could be. Didn't mean to insinuate your suggestion was a poor one. Apologies again.
Is the value in faves in part due to an overreaction to this "play baseball dogs in April" theme, ie people trying to pile into this trade too late and too far (now that it's been discussed pretty openly for a couple of seasons)?
48% of my bets this year have been on the underdog. It just so happens the posted plays are more skewed towards the favorites. Will read the link tomorrow, but have not noticed any targeted market subset aggressively hitting the screen. Nor have I seen any broad-based subset valuation bias.
Is the value in faves in part due to an overreaction to this "play baseball dogs in April" theme, ie people trying to pile into this trade too late and too far (now that it's been discussed pretty openly for a couple of seasons)?
Comments
Squiggly, take it easy with the big words JK. I have a progression that I go through in what I think is important. pitchers of course I assume (except for getaway day and Sunday's) the line up with be the same. I 'm a big believer in cycles so in short I don't have Math Model that I enter stats into a computer and come up with a number. I'm a big believer in KISS I find to many people Data mine to make a game say they want.
If I'm booking and you want the Angels My number is -160 Min. Seattle has scored 28 runs in the last 12 games and if you take out that explosion of 7 runs that leaves 21 runs in the last 11 games and 6 of those game were home games and yes against decent pitching just like Wilson. There just not hitting the ball. Now even though I believe it's a fair price I pass before I play. To me this is a game in April I know it's in doors but talking about prices I'm still of the mind set if I bet three games and there -130 -130 -180 if I lose the -180 I win 2 bets and win nothing if I lose two bets and win one I need to win two games to break even.
I know it's old school thinking But I haven't done badly over the past years in baseball and I would rather cook a nice meal for my family then sweat a -180 favorite. I want you to know if there's value in a number regardless of the price bet it I can't. Over the years I've gotten older and have become more of a recreational gambler playing a couple C notes a game sometimes a little less sometimes a little more. I don't chase I just try to grind.
Also for the most part I play angles and most of my angles are dogs and short favorites. but I do try to come up with what I think is a fair line.
Fister @ Wilson +104/-113
Fister @ Harrang -161/+148
Wilson @ Harrang -123/+114 (5 minutes ago)
There were multiple reasons the Red Sox traded Beckett but none of them mean he is not still a decent major league pitcher whose propensity for giving up home runs should be reduced by the change in venue from Fenway to Chavez Ravine. In this game the Dodgers are at home, have the better lineup and a pitching matchup of Beckett vs a kid who should be in AAA. I'd like to only have to lay -140 on that.
So you played laa last night -147 because fister closed -161 and wilson is compareable to fister?
No...
Ok fair enough. You came in your thread and pointed out the line moved against you, it seemed like you were surprised the line moved against you, and wanted to talk about it. Understand if you dont
You don't see anything odd about those prices?
Not really no
Well I'm sure you don't have Fister 38c better than Wilson so why not?
I was trying to display the increasingly lack of interconnectedness of the baseball market. Last Sunday, the market suggested that a Tigers team backed by Fister should be treated as near equals to that of an Angels team backed by Wilson. A few days later, intraday raids are either suggesting they are nowhere near to being comparable. Or you can take the more cynical approach and/or say the move was tactically phony and the changing dynamics of the market place plays provides a platform conducive for painting the screens closing prices.
2012 Regular Season & Playoffs combined
Wins: 106 Losses: 57
Winning Percentage: 65.03%
Units: +43.65
*All bets tracked against Pinnacle lines at 1 unit base amount
Almost at -1.40 a couple more points to go
Nah he's blowing Gamehunter this year.
What we saw with Medlen last year was a very dynamic and bullish pricing structure, where the market was continually upgrading his price all the way to the end of the season. It is natural for a pitcher that overachieved as much as Medlen to get priced below peak price the following season. But since start one, books opening prices on Medlen represented a very shallow downgrade to his peak price. The market moves against him the first couple of starts were pricing moves that were more representative of how the market was pricing him last August to mid September last year. A valuation still bullish and materially higher than his earlier starts. Books continue to ignore the market pricing signals (and appear to be taking the result-oriented approach instead) and the market continues to make slight downgrades to his prices to levels it sees better fit. There has not been any noticeable market valuation change from from start one up to today. The market is not fading Medlen and establishing new pricing points on him. At most, they are fading a valuation he supported for about 3 or 4 starts late last season when he was in clear bubble mode. If books continue to hang numbers similar to those 4 starts, he will likely continue to get bid down (even if he pitches well) as the market will continue to bet against a book mispricing.
Caveat: If the market can close Medlen out at +102 or higher, the market may be starting establish signs of fading Medlen.
no worries here
If you're interested and haven't been cut to peanuts there.
FYI, I am east coast and always up before 7am on weekdays (unless I go back to bed). My wife's a teacher so I wake up when her alarm goes off and have never been a late sleeper so I usually just make coffee and stay up. I also tend to get off the comp at night and not stay up super late (that's why you'll see Tommy moderating at night while I rarely post).
In any case, didn't mean anything by my comment, sorry if it came off poorly. I recommend 5Dimes to pretty much everyone. Either you bet small enough that it's a great book or you use them until you get limited and then they may or may not be worthwhile anymore. I was just mentioning that 5Dimes having a line isn't necessarily a solution for many, but as you pointed out, it definitely could be. Didn't mean to insinuate your suggestion was a poor one. Apologies again.
It's no secret that you've been playing mostly favorites, in contrast to the trend described here which I'm sure you are well aware of ->
http://www.matteryan.com/pdf/Information_Effects.pdf
Is the value in faves in part due to an overreaction to this "play baseball dogs in April" theme, ie people trying to pile into this trade too late and too far (now that it's been discussed pretty openly for a couple of seasons)?