If you don't think the 1st half line has Anything at all to do with the 2nd half line, you are 100% clueless. Look 2 others already said it has an effect, one guy said it has a huge affect.
Your modeling or whatever you call it is flawed. You are like a mad scientist doing things in his lab completely wrong is what i have to say. You same person who argues why ppl say earth is round and want an answer why it is.
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I'm not going to bother wasting my time with you as you are a joke and a troll. But those 3 games you listed, i will give you 2 of what the line should open at.
OKC -4
Detroit 216.5
Orlando 212.5
Miami -8.5
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Also these lines are assuming no player is out. Since linesmakers do know who is most likely going to be out before they release lines. I did not put the Boston line as I'm not sure if certain players would be out or not as I figure they would. Obviously if a player is out, my lines i posted will be different.
You are free to post your 3 lines for those 3 games you asked.
Also you said you will email jets your predicted closing lines for these games. If you ask about closing lines, its obviously going to be different than what i just posted. My 3 lines i posted are what i predict to be the opening lines for these 3 games. The closing line, obviously its going to be much different. I do have a good idea of which way they will move though.
But if we go into a predict opening lines for spreads/totals for all nba games throughout the rest of the nba season everyday, you will not win based on from what i seen you post in the forum.
I'm not talking about betonline. I'm talking about pinnacle/bookmaker. Do you even have access to pinnacle?
You sure im that off with the Pistons line? I had a strong hunch you were going to say that. That was the one game i'm sure you were going to say something about. That game will close to -3.5 even if it opens at -5.5 or 6.
You are free to post your 3 lines for those 3 games you asked.
Also you said you will email jets your predicted closing lines for these games. If you ask about closing lines, its obviously going to be different than what i just posted. My 3 lines i posted are what i predict to be the opening lines for these 3 games. The closing line, obviously its going to be much different. I do have a good idea of which way they will move though.
But if we go into a predict opening lines for spreads/totals for all nba games throughout the rest of the nba season everyday, you will not win based on from what i seen you post in the forum.
posted the lines
now tell me why the 1st half matters to the live line and 2nd half line at halftime
Okay let see what pinnacle opens these 3 games at then? But if we were to do an entire nba card with predicting pinnacle sides/totals everyday for the nba season, you would not win.
I don't have an answer to why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line? If that is the case, why did i call you out on that? Why did 2 members here say one has a big affect and the other guy said it has an affect? You go and figure it out yourself. If Jets or anyone else tells you the reason, you are going to either argue with them why its not correct or do some other stupid argument. You argue with ppl last time about opening/closing line on this forum which gotten you banned. Im not even going to bother with giving you a reason because most ppl with even a clue could come up with a few reasons. Again you can come up with a few and i will let you know which one it is.
Also in case you didn't know, I'm American just like you. The difference? I relocated outside the US a while back and have access to pinnacle and non- US accounts that US players like you don't have. And im not talking about like using pinnacle with asianconnect etc even though i have accounts with them as well.
you dont know, you made all that pissing and moaning and never answered the question, you dont know how the 1st half line has any impact on the 2nd half line and the live line at halftime because it doesnt
I'm not going to waste my time answering a question that is so obvious. If i didn't know what i was talking about, why would i even bring your point up about you saying 1st half line having no effect on 2nd half line. Jets isn't going to comment because he knows i know what im talking about. I mean that statement you made was so wrong i had to say something and could not believe you make a mistake like that. Then again you argued about opening/closing lines where everyone on forum said you are wrong and you kept arguing with them. Thats why you got banned earlier.
I just took a look at your lines again. I can pretty much guarantee you that the orlando/miami total you had set at 221.5 is going to be wrong by a good margin. The highest i see they open this total at is 216 and I don't see this happening. And this line will only drop. The line for this game is going to open a lot closer to 212.5 than 221.5.
You telling me you can't think of a few reasons why the 1st half line would affect the 2nd half line? Take a few guesses and i will let you know which one is correct. Jets and others on this forum know what im talking about. Again this is common sense.
Challenge you to nba opening lines? You have a model that probably has wrong inputs and you put wrong information. Last time someone asked you about a certain line and you gave the reasoning why it was that and that person said did you consider so and so... you said you ignore those situations and they said you cannot do that. So if you are making mistakes like that and not knowing 1st half lines affect 2nd half lines, everything you are doing is incorrect.
You are located in the US. You play mainly on the main US books. You don't even have access to non-US books like pinnacle accounts directly unless you use an agent. You shouldn't be talking.
I could only imagine the questions you ask if you were to try to relocate outside the US to have access to major non-us books and setting up skrill/neteller for NonUS.
funny you now know why I ask why because people say all kinds of shit and when you ask them to clarify why, they dont just like you and they start saying all kinds of other things
you dress funny
you are a troll
you are a moron
all that shit is the same thing as saying "I said that shit and I have no fricken idea why, I just think that "
they have a very tall strong big guy that stands outside the stats room and if anyone tries to use the 1st half spread he steps in immediately and stops them.
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they can use whatever they want and in theory could use the 1st half spread and shoe size of the players or the attendance
but after reviewing 1000s of games the most consistent thing is matching scenarios using game spread and current score and time left.
I can generate a very close 2nd half spread using that and it does not include the 1st half spread but not to say they could possibly use it, they also could use weather balloons.
and my thing is if they do use the 1st half spread, why would they? what would you derive from the 1st half spread that would help you more than the game spread?
so basically if i make my own lines for full games , i can throw it out the window ? really its useless if i wanted to go off that to figure out anything else game wise.
they have a very tall strong big guy that stands outside the stats room and if anyone tries to use the 1st half spread he steps in immediately and stops them.
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they can use whatever they want and in theory could use the 1st half spread and shoe size of the players or the attendance
but after reviewing 1000s of games the most consistent thing is matching scenarios using game spread and current score and time left.
I can generate a very close 2nd half spread using that and it does not include the 1st half spread but not to say they could possibly use it, they also could use weather balloons.
and my thing is if they do use the 1st half spread, why would they? what would you derive from the 1st half spread that would help you more than the game spread?
Its not either/or: if the 1st half line is useful that could be included in with the full game line and assigned an appropriate weight compared to the other factors. It should be easy enough for the MIT whiz kids and their super computers to determine if the first half line can be used as a reliable contributing factor or not.
the 1st half line in 99% of cases is if the game line is 7 the 1st half is 4
so yes you could go backwards and say use the 1h line and just do the math to go from 4 to 7
but he implied that the 1st half line was somehow separate or apart from the game line and was its own factor in determining the 2nd half line, I dont believe this to be the case, now if he would kindly say why the 1st half line is essential or part of the factor, I would love to hear why
Now you have me a little bit curious. Your idea that the second half line is engineered by comparing past, similar situations correlates with my experiences so far. Can you share some of the things you have seen that led you to this conclusion?
people watch a game drinking a beer and see Team A a pregame 6 pt fave destroying team B and at halftime the A leads by 16
everyone and their uncle says Team A is gonna just destroy them look at the pace, shooting % blah blah
but reality 6pt fave leading by 16 at half
TEAM A 46.5 TEAM B 48.5
so Team A is offered at +2 or maybe even less and people jump in with both feet on the Team that has been kicking ass but history shows they will lose the 2nd half by nearly 2 pts on avg
the numbers do. I have calculated the past few days games and using this created what i thought the line would be and then seen what the actual line was and I am very very close 99% of the time if not 100%
who would you recommend I talk to and if its a linemaker they are like anyone else they are not super open to sharing their models
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I will do hundreds of past games, I am right now scraping oddsportal 2nd half lines and score at half and pregame spread and should have some big numbers to match up
Comments
Your modeling or whatever you call it is flawed. You are like a mad scientist doing things in his lab completely wrong is what i have to say. You same person who argues why ppl say earth is round and want an answer why it is.
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I'm not going to bother wasting my time with you as you are a joke and a troll. But those 3 games you listed, i will give you 2 of what the line should open at.
OKC -4
Detroit 216.5
Orlando 212.5
Miami -8.5
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Also these lines are assuming no player is out. Since linesmakers do know who is most likely going to be out before they release lines. I did not put the Boston line as I'm not sure if certain players would be out or not as I figure they would. Obviously if a player is out, my lines i posted will be different.
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Boston -8.5
Cleveland 216.5
sounds great but he did not mention 1st half lines right?
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you wont bother wasting your time because you dont have an answer and that is super obvious.
your lines are way way off
Pistons you are at least 2 off
Heat at least 2 off
Cavs you are close on the side but way off on the total
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and I am talking opening Pinny lines not BOLs garbage lines
Also you said you will email jets your predicted closing lines for these games. If you ask about closing lines, its obviously going to be different than what i just posted. My 3 lines i posted are what i predict to be the opening lines for these 3 games. The closing line, obviously its going to be much different. I do have a good idea of which way they will move though.
But if we go into a predict opening lines for spreads/totals for all nba games throughout the rest of the nba season everyday, you will not win based on from what i seen you post in the forum.
the adjustments outside of that are they key but has NOTHING to do with the 1st half line
You sure im that off with the Pistons line? I had a strong hunch you were going to say that. That was the one game i'm sure you were going to say something about. That game will close to -3.5 even if it opens at -5.5 or 6.
[SIZE=+2]Pistons +6.5 216.5[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+2]Heat -6 221.5[/SIZE]
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posted the lines
now tell me why the 1st half matters to the live line and 2nd half line at halftime
I don't have an answer to why the 1st half line affects the 2nd half line? If that is the case, why did i call you out on that? Why did 2 members here say one has a big affect and the other guy said it has an affect? You go and figure it out yourself. If Jets or anyone else tells you the reason, you are going to either argue with them why its not correct or do some other stupid argument. You argue with ppl last time about opening/closing line on this forum which gotten you banned. Im not even going to bother with giving you a reason because most ppl with even a clue could come up with a few reasons. Again you can come up with a few and i will let you know which one it is.
Also in case you didn't know, I'm American just like you. The difference? I relocated outside the US a while back and have access to pinnacle and non- US accounts that US players like you don't have. And im not talking about like using pinnacle with asianconnect etc even though i have accounts with them as well.
I just took a look at your lines again. I can pretty much guarantee you that the orlando/miami total you had set at 221.5 is going to be wrong by a good margin. The highest i see they open this total at is 216 and I don't see this happening. And this line will only drop. The line for this game is going to open a lot closer to 212.5 than 221.5.
and the lines dude, I cant believe you would even think to even think to challenge me on NBA lines, are you drinking and posting?
Challenge you to nba opening lines? You have a model that probably has wrong inputs and you put wrong information. Last time someone asked you about a certain line and you gave the reasoning why it was that and that person said did you consider so and so... you said you ignore those situations and they said you cannot do that. So if you are making mistakes like that and not knowing 1st half lines affect 2nd half lines, everything you are doing is incorrect.
You are located in the US. You play mainly on the main US books. You don't even have access to non-US books like pinnacle accounts directly unless you use an agent. You shouldn't be talking.
I could only imagine the questions you ask if you were to try to relocate outside the US to have access to major non-us books and setting up skrill/neteller for NonUS.
you dress funny
you are a troll
you are a moron
all that shit is the same thing as saying "I said that shit and I have no fricken idea why, I just think that "
happens all the time in sports betting
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ok here is another why?
why is fairlay not a major book?
So, whats to stop them from using the 1st half line as one of the factors in the scenario for which they are looking for similar scenarios?
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they can use whatever they want and in theory could use the 1st half spread and shoe size of the players or the attendance
but after reviewing 1000s of games the most consistent thing is matching scenarios using game spread and current score and time left.
I can generate a very close 2nd half spread using that and it does not include the 1st half spread but not to say they could possibly use it, they also could use weather balloons.
and my thing is if they do use the 1st half spread, why would they? what would you derive from the 1st half spread that would help you more than the game spread?
Its not either/or: if the 1st half line is useful that could be included in with the full game line and assigned an appropriate weight compared to the other factors. It should be easy enough for the MIT whiz kids and their super computers to determine if the first half line can be used as a reliable contributing factor or not.
so this whole argument is pointless
the 1st half line in 99% of cases is if the game line is 7 the 1st half is 4
so yes you could go backwards and say use the 1h line and just do the math to go from 4 to 7
but he implied that the 1st half line was somehow separate or apart from the game line and was its own factor in determining the 2nd half line, I dont believe this to be the case, now if he would kindly say why the 1st half line is essential or part of the factor, I would love to hear why
ME
[SIZE=+2]Pistons +6.5 216.5[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+2]Heat -6 221.5
Donny
[/SIZE]OKC -4
Detroit 216.5
Orlando 212.5
Miami -8.5
the results seem pretty obvious, Donny go back to the drawing boards, you will get crushed if those are your model lines
Now you have me a little bit curious. Your idea that the second half line is engineered by comparing past, similar situations correlates with my experiences so far. Can you share some of the things you have seen that led you to this conclusion?
if the pre game spread is Team A -6
and at half the score is Team trailing by 6
we just search through NBA game history where this situation was similar if not exact and we see what happened historically
they win the 2nd half 51.9 to 44.8
so this says 2nd half line -7
now lets say they are up 6 at half
they win the 2nd half 49.6 to 47.3
so the 2nd half line would be -2
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where if you used simple math it would imply the 2nd half would be -3 since the game spread was 6
but how far they are ahead or behind makes a huge difference on how the 2nd half will play out
people watch a game drinking a beer and see Team A a pregame 6 pt fave destroying team B and at halftime the A leads by 16
everyone and their uncle says Team A is gonna just destroy them look at the pace, shooting % blah blah
but reality 6pt fave leading by 16 at half
TEAM A 46.5 TEAM B 48.5
so Team A is offered at +2 or maybe even less and people jump in with both feet on the Team that has been kicking ass but history shows they will lose the 2nd half by nearly 2 pts on avg
who would you recommend I talk to and if its a linemaker they are like anyone else they are not super open to sharing their models
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I will do hundreds of past games, I am right now scraping oddsportal 2nd half lines and score at half and pregame spread and should have some big numbers to match up
2nd hf line is based on the game spread pregame and the current score at half