DanShan is A Troll With Proof
donny2
Senior Member
Read this on another forum where he posted his opinion to someone else's discussion on live betting.
http://forum.thegamblingforum.com/index.php?/topic/57923-i-see-so-many-mistakes-in-live-betting/page-1
Read his posts from the entire thread and don't argue with me he isn't a troll. One guy has a discussion him about live lines and look at his arguments about live betting and what the line live 2nd half line should be. Not one person here on this forum that defended him can defend him now after reading his posts in that thread. Guy doesn't even have basic common sense about a live line or 2nd half spread and talks about his model like anyone with a clue knows he just talking stupid nonsense.
http://forum.thegamblingforum.com/index.php?/topic/57923-i-see-so-many-mistakes-in-live-betting/page-1
Read his posts from the entire thread and don't argue with me he isn't a troll. One guy has a discussion him about live lines and look at his arguments about live betting and what the line live 2nd half line should be. Not one person here on this forum that defended him can defend him now after reading his posts in that thread. Guy doesn't even have basic common sense about a live line or 2nd half spread and talks about his model like anyone with a clue knows he just talking stupid nonsense.
Comments
I wrote this and have checked it over the past few days and this is very accurate
" I am saying by pulling NBA game data
that a team that is pregame an 8 pt favorite and leads by 20 definitively takes their foot off the gas
and if they are trailing by 20 they step on it full blast
I would change my guess now
say a team is an -8 pregame fave
trailing by 20 at half line should be 2nd half line -9 or live spread +11
ahead by 20 at half 2nd half should be -1 or live spread -21"
- - - Updated - - -
but its good to hear from you, Donny thanks for writing. Have you checked out my app?
would be nice to get some smart people from here on it
an NBA team pregame is -6
at half they trail by 6
what should the 2nd half and live line be
my guess from spending some time on it is
I say 2nd half is -6.5
live line is -1
anyone else have any thoughts or guesses, I am assuming no ejections or injuries during the game
pregame -6
lead by 6 at HT
2nd half line -3
live line -8.5
Where they playing?
Home -7 or 7.5
Away -5 or 6.5
it does not seem to make a difference if they are home or away but I could see how that could slightly influence the live and 2nd half spread
- - - Updated - - -
see before I was just simplifying it
like if they are 6 pt faves for the game and trail by 6 they should lose by 3
but that is definitely not the case, the way they play the 2nd half is strongly dictated how the score was in the 1st half
You on the other hand said the spread should be -5 2nd half or something ridiculous to that effect. No book would ever open 2nd half line of that favorite -5 2nd half and make them +5 for the full game.
You are either trolling or a complete moron. If the line should be -5 when its almost always -7 to -9, why don't you bet the underdog everytime getting 8 points 2nd half and have them +2 for full game then.
Nobody is looking at your model or whatever you have. Whatever you have probably is done incorrectly and has wrong inputs.
The fact you argue the line should be -5 2nd half makes you sound like a moron. Why don't you tell sportsbooks, the line should be -5 and not like -8.
Nobody in this forum will agree with you on this.
If you make an obvious error like this on taking a guess what the 2nd half line should be, imagine how bad your model is when you talk about you coming up with so and so lines. Everyone here should take a look at your posts in that thread and see how either you are really clueless... which i doubt since you can't be this stupid... or trolling everyone.. which is what i assume all along.
maybe if you read this again, you will understand my logic on this until I actually ran the numbers and looked
a team that is a pregame favorite will definitely step on the gas if they are way down but if they are way up they will definitely coast
a big fave should win each half by say 5 pregame but if they get far behind they will win the 2nd half by 10 or even more on average
and if they are way ahead they will maybe not even win the 2nd half now
if someone anyone not just my model Donny and they get -10 for the game and the team has half a game left it just seemed logical they should win the 2nd half by +- 5, right
but with some work and research that is 1000% not the case
so in order to actual try and place live bets, I think we need a Number we expect to happen and if the book is offering something off that number we need to see why and if we dont see a reason why maybe we have a play there.
i think what most people do is they say I watched the 1st half and team A was badass or team B had a few unlucky turnovers but looked good but they are not giving themselves a concrete number and as everyone knows and I have said a few times if you dont create a "fair" line on the bet, how can you bet it?
If a team is down 10 points at half and 10 point favorite, it should be like -7.5 to 9.5 or at the most -10 for 2nd half. I mean i could see it being -6.5 but anything less will rarely happen.
Teams that are down 10 at the half while laying 10 points pregame, what do you think the percentage is that team wins the game straight up? You say they should logically win 2nd half by -5. Well obviously they are going to win the 2nd half by -5 at least 50 percent of the time. You don't even need to check scores and stats and could say they will cover -5 by 2nd half. If you were to bet 100 times when a team -10 fav is down 10 at half and -5 2nd half, at least 52.4% minimum they cover -5.
- - - Updated - - -
If you don't create a fair line how can you bet it? And how are you creating lines? Your model? Whatever you input into it is probably wrong. I remember you got in an argument with someone here about a very obvious thing that even i could answer and i bet 1/2 an avg bettor could probably answer. I don't remember what it was about but you asked a very foolish question or omitted something that was so obvious, even some ppl on this forum who talk with you in your threads had to say... you cannot do this and that etc and you said but why or why should it matter when its so obvious to anyone.
Your model is probably some stuff you put in where you shouldn't put in. You honestly are like those ppl who are like trying to be a scientist or something but fail miserably. There is no way you are a profitable bettor with your so called model. The worst part is i can probably take a good rough line estimate of what a line should open better than you.
if pregame was -10 and now trail by 10 at the half
why would it be such a big range?
remember we are assuming no injuries or ejections since start
run your numbers for .......wait are we talking about nba or college hoops ....doesnt matter, i dont have any subsets for nba but do have a few for college hoops.
if -10 and down 10 they win 2nd half by 10
so if they have a lead they take a hair off the gas
and if they are trailing they kick it into high gear and win the 2nd half by 10
Have you ever even looked at 2nd half lines when a team down 10 is 10 pt favs pregame? It almost always -7.5 to -9.5 and median is like -8.5 to -9.
I have no idea what you mean with your last post. Of course if a team is -10 and up 10 at the half, they will win the 2nd half on average by a few points. So you say if they are down 10 they win 2nd half by 10, so basically that team laying 7.5-9.5 points is correct then right? Oddsmakers are not making mistakes like that. If a team is -6 full game and up 6 at the half, what you think 2nd half spread would be? It would be around-2 to -2.5.
- - - Updated - - -
do you think shooting % will regress in the course of the 2nd half ?
say they avg 50% and they shoot 22% horrible 1st half will they more than likely shoot 70 in 2nd to avg 50?
cause I think they will shoot a hair higher than 50% but I dont think the regression is instant
I think things tend to balance out . I bet 2nd halfs and have done very well because i chart certain coaching tendencies , some coaches know they cant come back and will do certain things, even i know it and will take the other side. Do your homework will find some really lights out bets.
up 2 at half
I say they should be 2nd half -7
live line -9
what is it ?
- - - Updated - - -
its about 8.5 I could only find it on oddsportal live
- - - Updated - - -
live is -8.5
2nd half is -6.5
- - - Updated - - -
Blazers Vs Magic
Pregame Magic -6.5
trailing by 11
my guess
2nd half Magic -7
live line +4
- - - Updated - - -
looks like
2nd half -7
live line +4.5
Houston -10 full game and down by 10 at half. 2nd half line -11.5. In situations like this, i'm not surprised it could go as high as 11.5. But if it was say 2 other teams, good chance it would be -9 or -8.5. Its not really hard to guess what a 2nd half line should be when you compare it to the full game line and the 1st half line etc.
The fact that he a while back posted all his projected lines... anyone with a clue could do that without a model. He is basically a troll. He ask questions that are easily answerable by most people with common sense. I believe he got banned in sbr forum or another forum because of this.
I think its not hard to guess but I think in order for me to bet on a game I want to establish at minimum what I consider a fair number.
I am very good at basketball and my projected lines are not posted anymore because no one cared to see them or really was interested, referring back to point 1.
I got banned in SBR forum for betting with a guy via DM. I got banned from here for asking too many questions and mainly not staying out of other peoples threads.
I sometimes wonder how easy my questions are and why nobody answers them maybe again refer back to point 1.
I wonder why you are so concerned with me. I am not posting here often, do not post picks and basically come in and ask a question or two and chat a bit. I am not a post all the time member here anymore at all.
anyway the 2nd half lines are interesting to me and I want to dig deeper and start to create timeout lines as well.
give my app a try you might enjoy it or at least can make fun of it and maybe I can use that feedback to improve it.
have a good day and if you want to continue the conversation about the live lines, I am excited and happy to do it. I dont think it is a simple as you say, just peek at the pregame line and 1st half line, honestly I dont even understand what you meant there, maybe you can elaborate.
Why would you even bet with someone via DM? You got banned here because you ask questions... ppl answer your questions and you keep questioning them why. Its like you give them answer why earth is round and you keep asking why over and over.
Maybe ppl don't answer your easy questions because either... the questions are way too novice to be asking... they give you answer and you keep asking but why and keep argueing like you did with the opening/closing line thing last time... or they think you are trolling.
2nd half lines are very obvious to most ppl with a basic understanding. You should never be off more than at most 2 points in the spread when taking a guess at what the 2nd half line should be. Totals a bit different but you shouldn't be that far off there as well.
You created an app? Oh man another thing you probably did wrong.
Look at your last paragraph. If you can't look at a pregame line and 1st half line and then look at the halftime score and can take a good guess what the 2nd half line should open for the spread, you are clueless. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what the spread should be in most games and you should not be off more than 2 points almost ever. I'm not elaborating anything. You are basically trolling now. The fact you say that means either you are trolling. No one who has a complex model would ask a stupid basic question like you just did now. Its obvious what i mean when i say look at full game line and 1st half line and then halftime score... its not hard to guess what halftime line should be. The only times when you probably would be off in a 2nd half line by more than 2 points is say favorite is -6 and they are up like 35 points or more at the half.
my goal is to be closer to .5 pt off but I am surely not there yet. I will keep working on it
what would the 1st half line have to do with the 2nd half spread?
what the heck about that thread made you think I was a troll and what the heck was the proof?
What would the 1st half line have to do with the 2nd half spread?
Are you serious or are you trolling now? You don't think it has anything to do with the 2nd half spread? Simple yes or no and then you can give an explanation if you like.
And after you reply to that, im sure anyone that anyone that speak with you on this forum will be in complete disbelief with your response to this question.
You don't think 1st half line has anything to do with 2nd half lines at all?
the pregame spread, the current score, time left, injuries and ejections during the game