fwiw ,You can only post lines from one of three books listed in rules , and not sure about covers but on sbr pinny had no +170,nor did don best.
Good luck
On January 17th, our cumulative gain had attained +16.05 units.
Since then, the system plays have gone through a slump and are now down to a +5.23-unit profit.
Let's cross our fingers that the skid is going to stop very soon!
RECORD:
Bets won = 88
Bets lost = 107
Profit = +5.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ -129 or 1.78 odds, vs Rangers)
2 STARS = Coyotes (@ +144 or 2.44 odds, at Stars)
Both picks are based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle. Here is how it goes:
"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.
In this case, both the Rangers and the Stars just got their four-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.
Note: the Wild meet the criteria for betting under "The Scoring Drought" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Vancouver. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.
There we go! A perfect 2-0 last night to break out of a slump.
Let's build some momentum!
RECORD:
Bets won = 90
Bets lost = 109
Profit = +5.22 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, vs Predators)
1 STAR = Rangers (@ +143 or 2.43 odds, at Hurricanes)
1 STAR = Flames (@ +120 or 2.20 odds, vs Bruins)
1 STAR = Ducks (@ +144 or 2.44 odds, vs Avalanche)
The Calgary and Anaheim picks are both based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are home underdogs."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Flames have allowed 4 and 8 goals in their last two meetings, while the Ducks have surrendered 4 and 6 goals. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.
The San Jose pick is based on the following three strategies: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold vs Hot Teams MatchupProfessor MJ
Teacher, you charge your students for this nonsense without knowing the actual starting goalie? You must be busy tomorrow correcting papers.
We picked 5 underdogs last night, including 4 with big odds. All we needed was a couple of wins.
In the early games, the Flames upset the Bruins 5-2. Things were looking up!
However, all four remaining picks lost, including the Jets in a shootout (and the Hawks blowing a 3-1 lead).
Overall, we ended up losing 2.15 units.
RECORD:
Bets won = 93
Bets lost = 115
Profit = +3.60 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Sabres (@ +185 or 2.85 odds, at Avalanche)
This pick is based on the following two betting strategies: "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Hot Teams Matchup."
Here are the details about the latter:
"Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight wins."
This system yielded a profit of 66.87 units via 483 bets over a nine-year period.
According to this betting strategy, since the Sabres have won two games in a row and the Avs are riding a three-game winning streak, we're going to back Buffalo.
just wondered what is your expected units compared to actual units right now?
Hey Dan, are you talking about expected ROI vs actual ROI? If not, sorry I misunderstood you, please clarify and I will respond.
If ROI: with plays posted here +1.7%. With all plays (I know I'm technically not supposed to talk about this here, but I have to if I want to provide the most insightful answer as I can): +13.17 units over 435 bets so +3.0%. They have done terribly of late, so we dropped from about 5% to 3% fairly quickly!
Based on past data, the systems are expected to produce a ROI of about 7%-8%. However, past trends may not repeat themselves in the future. I do believe in them since they fit my personal intuition (if they weren't, I wouldn't be playing them). I am aware that some people don't believe in that kind of stuff, and that is perfectly fine too. Everyone is entitled their opinion and all they have to do is ignore my posts.
That being said, I tend to be conservative, so I was not expecting a 7%-8% ROI. I would argue that 2%-5% was my "expectation".
Hope it answers your question. If not because I misunderstood your question, I apologize and just let me know!
Cheers!
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Thursday February 27
The slide continued last night, as the system plays have been stinking lately!
The season profit has now gone from 16 units to less than 3 units right now...
RECORD:
Bets won = 93
Bets lost = 116
Profit = +2.60 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = Stars (@ +155 or 2.55 odds, at Bruins)
1 STAR = Flames (@ +115 or 2.15 odds, at Predators)
1 STAR = Devils (@ +129 or 2.29 odds, at Sharks)
1 STAR = RedWings (@ +188 or 2.88 odds, vs Wild)
Following the recent slump, I figured I'd issue some warnings about some games.
With the season coming to an end fairly soon, the motivation level plays a large role.
For this reason, I advise being cautious about the Detroit pick. Minnesota is fighting for its playoff lives, while the Wings are eliminated.
Still, my role is to point out which teams meet the criteria for betting under systems I developed. I'm not going to omit/remove plays because I don't like them.
The objective was to find out whether those betting strategies would do well or not, so we're not going to change course and I'm still going to report such plays.
However, from a betting perspective I just wanted to issue some additional insight.
Have a good day (snowstorm here in Quebec City today!).
without this how would you or I know if we are doing good or bad?
You are not understanding situation betting. The concept is that the situation is a kind of innate value that just exists in the world. So over the course of time, this innate value will present itself. It is not measurable. He expects it to return 7 to 8% over time. It will either be profitable or will not. It cannot be measured. It is like trying to put shoes on a ghost.
I dont understand how you can make a bet when you dont know what it will return
He's done research of his own and thinks he has value as a result of the research. This is what you have called data mining which it may well be. But he thinks it is something beyond data mining.
Consider the week off a bye with football. This is something that fans noticed in observing sports. Somebody decided to measure it and they determined it existed. Now it is reflected in the market.
In this case, it is not reflected in the market so it cannot be reflected in CLV or some type of measurable confirmation. The confirmation is when the bets win. The only thing to do is sit back and watch the results.
I will answer in my thread if you want to continue this conversation, Professor you are invited to participate as well. I dont want to clog this thread anymore
Let me be clear: I don't necessarily like the Detroit pick. They have nothing to play for, while Colorado is in the thick of the playoff race.
Professor MJ
However it Detroit wins, it's applied to his record. With his added caveat, this is commonly known as 'toutspeak'.
Bet a road underdog if they beat their previous opponent by a margin of 3 goals or more ("underdog" = money line greater than 2.05, i.e. +105).
This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.
2007/08 to 2015/16 seasons. Got the data in Excel format off a website several years ago. This site doesn't seem to exist anymore, unfortunately. I don't own the data on the most recent seasons. Obtained the numbers above from programing in R.
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Wednesday March 4th
A loss of 1.05 unit last night. Let's try to rebound right away!
RECORD:
Bets won = 98
Bets lost = 126
Profit = -0.48 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Ducks (@ +255 or 3.55 odds, at Avalanche)
2 STARS = Capitals (@ -148 or 1.68 odds, vs Flyers)
The betting strategies don't pick favorites very often, but we have one tonight. The Flyers-Capitals matchup should be interesting! :eating:
Comments
Good luck
On January 17th, our cumulative gain had attained +16.05 units.
Since then, the system plays have gone through a slump and are now down to a +5.23-unit profit.
Let's cross our fingers that the skid is going to stop very soon!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Both picks are based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle. Here is how it goes:
"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.
In this case, both the Rangers and the Stars just got their four-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.
Note: the Wild meet the criteria for betting under "The Scoring Drought" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Vancouver. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.
Cheers! :thumbup:
Professor MJ
The bad slump continued last night with a couple of lost picks. :thumbdown:
The cumulative winnings just keep shrinking, but let's try to stay in positive territory!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Toronto pick is backed by "The Hot Scorers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight."
This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period.
Now, the Pens have scored 5, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them.
Gooooood luck, hockey fans!
Professor MJ
There we go! A perfect 2-0 last night to break out of a slump.
Let's build some momentum!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Calgary and Anaheim picks are both based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are home underdogs."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Flames have allowed 4 and 8 goals in their last two meetings, while the Ducks have surrendered 4 and 6 goals. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.
My birthday this weekend! :eating:
I'll talk to you again next Monday!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The San Jose pick is based on the following three strategies: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold vs Hot Teams Matchup."
Have a nice day!!
Professor MJ
Teacher, you charge your students for this nonsense without knowing the actual starting goalie? You must be busy tomorrow correcting papers.
We picked 5 underdogs last night, including 4 with big odds. All we needed was a couple of wins.
In the early games, the Flames upset the Bruins 5-2. Things were looking up!
However, all four remaining picks lost, including the Jets in a shootout (and the Hawks blowing a 3-1 lead).
Overall, we ended up losing 2.15 units.
RECORD:
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
This pick is based on the following two betting strategies: "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Hot Teams Matchup."
Here are the details about the latter:
"Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight wins."
This system yielded a profit of 66.87 units via 483 bets over a nine-year period.
According to this betting strategy, since the Sabres have won two games in a row and the Avs are riding a three-game winning streak, we're going to back Buffalo.
Good luck!
Professor MJ
just wondered what is your expected units compared to actual units right now?
Hey Dan, are you talking about expected ROI vs actual ROI? If not, sorry I misunderstood you, please clarify and I will respond.
If ROI: with plays posted here +1.7%. With all plays (I know I'm technically not supposed to talk about this here, but I have to if I want to provide the most insightful answer as I can): +13.17 units over 435 bets so +3.0%. They have done terribly of late, so we dropped from about 5% to 3% fairly quickly!
Based on past data, the systems are expected to produce a ROI of about 7%-8%. However, past trends may not repeat themselves in the future. I do believe in them since they fit my personal intuition (if they weren't, I wouldn't be playing them). I am aware that some people don't believe in that kind of stuff, and that is perfectly fine too. Everyone is entitled their opinion and all they have to do is ignore my posts.
That being said, I tend to be conservative, so I was not expecting a 7%-8% ROI. I would argue that 2%-5% was my "expectation".
Hope it answers your question. If not because I misunderstood your question, I apologize and just let me know!
Cheers!
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Thursday February 27
The slide continued last night, as the system plays have been stinking lately!
The season profit has now gone from 16 units to less than 3 units right now...
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Following the recent slump, I figured I'd issue some warnings about some games.
With the season coming to an end fairly soon, the motivation level plays a large role.
For this reason, I advise being cautious about the Detroit pick. Minnesota is fighting for its playoff lives, while the Wings are eliminated.
Still, my role is to point out which teams meet the criteria for betting under systems I developed. I'm not going to omit/remove plays because I don't like them.
The objective was to find out whether those betting strategies would do well or not, so we're not going to change course and I'm still going to report such plays.
However, from a betting perspective I just wanted to issue some additional insight.
Have a good day (snowstorm here in Quebec City today!).
Professor MJ
so you are now at 2.6 units actually and how many should you currently have ?
Like I said my expectation was 2%-5% ROI, so out of 209 games that means between 4 and 10 maybe.
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Friday February 28
I don't recall going through such a rough streak in a long time. The systems have done extremely poorly this month.
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Professor MJ
I know exactly what I am suppose to make.
dont you have an expected value?
here is my actual blue and expected red
https://i.imgur.com/N8RqKFH.png
without this how would you or I know if we are doing good or bad?
213 picks of 1 unit means you bet 213 units
so you should actually be down 5.325 units
so you only being down 1.4 units is pretty good
you are doing about 4 units better than you should be
roughly
You are not understanding situation betting. The concept is that the situation is a kind of innate value that just exists in the world. So over the course of time, this innate value will present itself. It is not measurable. He expects it to return 7 to 8% over time. It will either be profitable or will not. It cannot be measured. It is like trying to put shoes on a ghost.
I dont understand how you can make a bet when you dont know what it will return
He's done research of his own and thinks he has value as a result of the research. This is what you have called data mining which it may well be. But he thinks it is something beyond data mining.
Consider the week off a bye with football. This is something that fans noticed in observing sports. Somebody decided to measure it and they determined it existed. Now it is reflected in the market.
In this case, it is not reflected in the market so it cannot be reflected in CLV or some type of measurable confirmation. The confirmation is when the bets win. The only thing to do is sit back and watch the results.
Finally a positive day... We made it back above 0.
Let's hope for a rebound month in March!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Let me be clear: I don't necessarily like the Detroit pick. They have nothing to play for, while Colorado is in the thick of the playoff race.
However, since my role is to report the plays that meet the criteria for betting under my 10 betting angles, I am letting you know about it.
The Oilers pick is backed by "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting strategy.
Have a good Monday, fellows!
Professor MJ
However it Detroit wins, it's applied to his record. With his added caveat, this is commonly known as 'toutspeak'.
*Donny2, you are banging on the wrong guy.
Slight gains last night with 1 win out of two (thanks to the Oilers pulling off a small upset in Nashville).
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Devils pick is based on "The Big Upset", "The Blowout" and "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting strategies.
Here are the details about "The Blowout" system:
Bet a road underdog if they beat their previous opponent by a margin of 3 goals or more ("underdog" = money line greater than 2.05, i.e. +105).
This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.
The Devils' last game was a 3-0 win in Anaheim. Since they are indeed on the road tonight with odds above 2.05, we are backing them.
Good luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
Bet a road underdog if they beat their previous opponent by a margin of 3 goals or more ("underdog" = money line greater than 2.05, i.e. +105).
This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.
2007/08 to 2015/16 seasons. Got the data in Excel format off a website several years ago. This site doesn't seem to exist anymore, unfortunately. I don't own the data on the most recent seasons. Obtained the numbers above from programing in R.
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Wednesday March 4th
A loss of 1.05 unit last night. Let's try to rebound right away!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The betting strategies don't pick favorites very often, but we have one tonight. The Flyers-Capitals matchup should be interesting! :eating:
Have a nice day!
Professor MJ
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]AD and p:margin > 2 and line > 105 and season > 2017[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
95-155 (-0.82, 38.0%)
avg line: 150.0 / -169.3
on / against: -$1,532 / -$573
ROI: -6.1% / -1.4%
[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
106-132-12 (-0.14, 44.5%)
avg total: 6.0
</tbody>
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
here is that same strategy from 2015 to now
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]AD and p:margin > 2 and line > 105 and season > 2014[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
238-360 (-0.67, 39.8%)
avg line: 146.5 / -163.1
on / against: -$1,868 / -$2,500
ROI: -3.1% / -2.6%
[TH="align: center"]OU:[/TH]
281-278-39 (0.12, 50.3%)
avg total: 5.7
</tbody>
</tbody>
Huge upset by the Ducks last night in Colorado! It generated a profit of 2.55 units. :thumbup2:
Too bad the Caps lost their big showdown with the Flyers (for a 1-unit loss since we're always risking 1 unit).
Overall: +1.55 unit yesterday.
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Happy Thursday everyone!
Professor MJ