Betting Talk

NHL Picks 2019-2020 by Professor MJ

ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
edited March 2020 in Sports Betting
Hello hockey fans!

I'm a statistics university professor and I love to help fellow sports investors grow their bankroll!

I have developed the following 4 betting systems (more to come in the very near future), which are all in accodance with my contrarian approach so I really trust them a lot:
  • The Scoring Drought: +90.53 units over 1656 bets.
  • The Sloppy Defense: +27.64 units over 267 bets.
  • The Hot Scorers: +45.08 units over 332 bets.
  • The Stingy Goalies: +94.10 units over 2198 bets.
(the above numbers were obtained via my dataset on 9 seasons)

TOTAL:
Profit = +257.35 units over 4453 bets (a ROI of +5.8%)

Since the 2012-2013 season was shortened to 48 games, the data correspond to 8.6 seasons.

You can therefore expect to earn 29.92 units (257.35 / 8.6) over 518 bets (4453 / 8.6) throughout one season.

If your average bet is $100, your expected winnings are $2,992.

In this thread, I'm going to present one pick on Tuesdays and Thursdays (and perhaps Saturdays? We'll see how it goes).

We'll keep track of the record. Sounds good?

Let's get the party started!

Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

Sharks (at +105 or 2.05) at Blackhawks

Let's get off to a good start!

Professor MJ
«134

Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    What's the sense of posting just on those days ? to get those results, you need to bet every single game ,or every time those 4 systems come up, if you don't do that,aren't those results useless for the people who want to follow you ?I shouldn't say useless, they my put someone on a game or take them off a game.
    Good luck this season.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    Looking hard at the Sharks tonight at Chicago. Hawks' first game since the international trip. Looking back at how teams have fared in 1P and overall in this situation. Flyers won last night but were outshot 10-6 in scoreless first period before outshooting NJ 28-15 rest of night
    Surprising results for teams playing first game after returning from international series: 12-8-11 on first period moneylines, which you'd think they might be flat after so much travel and time off. But full-game results: 11-18-2
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    We got off to a good start with the Sharks upsetting Chicago! Let's keep it up!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 1
    Bets lost = 0
    Profit = +$1.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    Coyotes (at +137 or 2.37) at Avalanche

    Have a good Saturday!

    Professor MJ
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    What's the sense of posting just on those days ? to get those results, you need to bet every single game ,or every time those 4 systems come up, if you don't do that,aren't those results useless for the people who want to follow you ?I shouldn't say useless, they my put someone on a game or take them off a game.
    Good luck this season.

    You have to pay $40 for that. This is the sneak preview.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    does this guy sell picks somewhere ?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    Yes, that is what this forum is for. Showcasing your tout picks.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    id like to sign up, is there a link ,is he cheaper then drh ?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    Yes, he is budget friendly. You can find him.
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    We came close to pulling off a second straight upset, but the Coyotes lost in overtime in Colorado in our last pick.

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 1
    Bets lost = 1
    Profit = +$0.05 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    Detroit Red Wings (at +130 or 2.30) at Vancouver Canucks

    Based on "The Stingy Goalies" betting angle, which goes like this:

    Suppose a team has allowed 3 goals or less in each of its past three games (not necessarily wins). Fade that team if they are now playing at home with odds < 2.25 (i.e. +125 in American format). The latter condition ensures we are avoiding betting big&moderate favorites.

    That being said, the Canucks have allowed 2, 2 and 3 goals in each of their three most recent matchups. They are indeed at home with a money line smaller than 2.25 so we are betting AGAINST them tonight.

    Good luck with your plays, sports investors!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    RECORD:

    Bets won = 1
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = -$0.95 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    New Jersey Devils (at -112 or 1.893) vs New York Rangers

    The play is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle:

    Bet a home team undergoing a losing skid of 3+ straight losses when facing a road team that has lost its past 1-2 game(s).

    Since the Devils have lost their past six games, while the Blue Shirts lost 1 game in a row, we're taking New Jersey tonight!

    Professor MJ
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    not really a road game
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    not really a road game

    The betting angle says to bet the home team, that's what I did, right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 2
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = -$0.06 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    Vegas Golden Knights (at -122 or 1.82) at Pittsburgh Penguins

    This play is based on two betting angles, including "The Hot Teams Matchup", which goes as follows:

    "Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team riding a winning streak of length 3+."

    Since Vegas has won 1 game in a row, while the Pens are on a 5-game winning streak, we are backing the Golden Knights.

    Have a good Saturday!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    The last 2 picks hit, let's extend this good streak!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 3
    Bets lost = 2
    Profit = +$0.76 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    New York Rangers (at +104 or 2.04) vs Arizona Coyotes

    This pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting angle, which goes as follows:

    Suppose a team scores 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games (not necessarily wins). FADE them if they are now playing on the road.

    The Coyotes have scored 5, 5 and 4 goals in their past three contests, respectively. Since they are playing in the Big Apple tonight, we are betting against them.

    Good luck!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    RECORD:

    Bets won = 3
    Bets lost = 3
    Profit = -$0.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):

    Anaheim Ducks (at +135 or 2.35) at Dallas Stars

    This pick is based on two betting angles at a time, including "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:

    Bet a road team coming off at least 2 straight losses when facing a home team coming off at least 2 straight wins. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 (i.e. we only focus on moderate/big dogs).

    This system yielded a 43-unit profit over 9 full seasons (via 428 bets).

    Good luck to you!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    I'm gonna do something special and provide a couple of picks today. But first:

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 3
    Bets lost = 4
    Profit = -$1.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's picks:

    Chicago Blackhawks (at +175 or 2.75 with Bet365) at Nashville Predators
    Minnesota Wild (at +130 or 2.30 with Pinnacle) at Dallas Stars


    Both are based on 3 betting systems at a time!! One of them is called "The Blowout Effect", which goes as follows:

    "Bet a team that just blew out its previous opponent by 3+ goals if they are road underdogs tonight."

    Chicago's last game: won 5-1 against the Kings. Minnesota's last game: won 5-1 against those same Kings. Both Chicago and Minnesota are road dogs today, so they meet all criteria for betting.

    This system generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets (ROI = 7.4%) through a 9-year span.

    Good luck!

    Professor MJ
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited October 2019
    special??--lol--different--maybe, but special, I guess is yet to be determined
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    5 NHL Picks for November 1

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 3
    • Bets lost = 6
    • Profit = -$3.24 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Let's start climbing back!

    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):
    • 4 STARS = Lightning (at -113 or 1.885) at Islanders
    • 2 STARS = Flyers (at +108 or 2.08) at Devils
    • 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +145 or 2.45) at Blues
    • 2 STARS = Ducks (at -108 or 1.926) vs Canucks
    • 1 STAR = Stars (at +122 or 2.22) at Avalanche


    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    In the gambling urban slang dictionary, the above post is an illustration of the term "yoshing".
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    2 NHL Picks for November 4th

    The picks went 3-2 for a +1.23-unit profit the last time I posted. Let's stay on the winning track!

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 6
    Bets lost = 8
    Profit = -$2.01 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

    3 STARS = Red Wings (at +175 or 2.75) vs Predators
    2 STARS = Coyotes (at -103 or 1.97) at Oilers


    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    6 NHL Picks for November 5th, 2019

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 7
    Bets lost = 9
    Profit = -$2.04 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's system plays are (odds from Pinnacle):

    5 STARS = Senators (at +230 or 3.30) at Islanders
    4 STARS = Avalanche (at +119 or 2.19) at Stars
    3 STARS = Flyers (at -102 or 1.98) vs Hurricanes
    3 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +125 or 2.25) vs Golden Knights
    2 STARS = Blues (at +103 or 2.03) at Canucks
    2 STARS = Wild (at +103 or 2.03) at Ducks


    The Ottawa Sens meet the criteria of three betting systems at a time, including "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle, which goes as follows:

    Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight victories.

    This strategy led to a 66.87 unit-profit over a 9-year span (via 483 bets).

    Since Ottawa has a 1-game winning streak, while the Isles are riding a nice 9-game winning streak, we are backing the Sens tonight. It's a long shot, but we'll see how it plays out!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 6

    3-3 record last night for a slight profit.

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 10
    • Bets lost = 12
    • Profit = -$2.00 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):
    • 2 STARS = Red Wings (at +135 or 2.35) at Rangers
    • 2 STARS = Blues (+130 with Bet365 right now so I expect about +135 with Pinnacle) at Oilers


    Best of luck!

    Professor MJ
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Throw in those *Star Ratings for possible default claims. Shrewd tout maneuver.
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 6

    We picked both underdogs yesterday and got a 1-1 record, so we did net a profit.

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 11
    • Bets lost = 13
    • Profit = -$1.72 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):
    • 2 STARS = Panthers (at -111 or 1.90) vs Capitals
    • 2 STARS = Penguins (at +100 or 2.00) at Islanders
    • 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +145 or 2.45) at Coyotes
    • 1 STAR = Rangers (at +226 or 3.26) at Hurricanes


    The Florida pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting system, which goes as follows:

    Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. If they are playing on the road tonight, bet against them.

    This betting angle yielded a 45.08-unit profit via 332 bets through a 9-year span.

    Have a good day, fellows!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    I meant "November 7", sorry about the typo guys!
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 6

    We picked both underdogs yesterday and got a 1-1 record, so we did net a profit

    The Florida pick is based on "The Hot Scorers" betting system, which goes as follows:

    Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. If they are playing on the road tonight, bet against them.

    This betting angle yielded a 45.08-unit profit via 332 bets through a 9-year span.

    "We" lol
    Most of us here realize both 'dogs in a 1-1 split =$$. Quit blowing your French horn and talking down to us like your middle-schoolers.

    btw, How many units did you make on this "Hot Scorer" data mine info?
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 8

    Big payday last night!

    The system plays went 3-1, including a big underdog (Rangers at Canes) and a moderate dog (Jackets at Coyotes).

    We won 3.71 units, which now puts us in profit territory! Attaboy!

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 14
    • Bets lost = 14
    • Profit = +$1.99 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

    • 5 STARS = Red Wings (at +220 or 3.20) vs Bruins
    • 4 STARS = Canucks (at +110 or 2.10) at Jets


    Once again we are going after a long shot. Detroit's pick meets the criteria of a season-high 4 betting systems at a time. It won't be easy at all, so let's cross our fingers!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 11

    AWESOME!! The 5-star pick, was which a long shot, did win! The Red Wings did pull off a nice upset against the Bruins last Friday.

    RECORD:

    Bets won = 15
    Bets lost = 15
    Profit = +$3.19 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)

    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

    4 STARS = Coyotes (at +165 or 2.65) at Capitals
    1 STAR = Senators (at +208 or 3.08) at Hurricanes


    The Ottawa pick is based on "The Blowout" betting system:

    Bet a team that blew out its previous opponent by a margin of 3+ goals. The team we bet must be on the road and its money line must be greater than 2.05 (which essentially means they must be underdogs).

    This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.

    Good luck guys!

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 12

    Now 5 straight days with positive gains! Let's try to keep the ball rolling!

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 16
    • Bets lost = 16
    • Profit = +$3.84 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

    • 4 STARS = Coyotes (at +145 or 2.45) at Blues
    • 3 STARS = Oilers (at +124 or 2.24) at Sharks
    • 2 STARS = Avalanche (at +103 or 2.03) at Jets
    • 1 STAR = Panthers (at +145 or 2.45) at Bruins


    Snow storm today in Quebec City, I hope you guys have a nice day...

    Professor MJ
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 13

    This is just unbelievable: we are riding an astounding winning streak!

    RECORD:
    • Bets won = 19
    • Bets lost = 17
    • Profit = +$6.77 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)


    Today's picks are (odds from Pinnacle):

    No picks!

    See you tomorrow!

    Professor MJ
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    NHL Picks for November 13

    This is just unbelievable: we are riding an astounding winning streak!
    No picks!

    With this boasting, it appears you've never been there before. From "yoshing" to sitting on a small stack. +6 units??
    Good luck with your 'moonlighting' endeavors. I suggest to tighten up your game you should reference Stu Feiner or Vegas Dave.
Sign In or Register to comment.