I'll be on Denver week 2, schedule play. Week 1 is something I will look at certain steam, and then look for overreaction for week 2 as many do. I'm waiting to see if the holding penalties continue or was it just a warning by league? Also, teams aren't set, will configure defenses/offenses and chart them out this year, something I haven't done much of in past.
I am a diehard Broncos fan for life but I am bandwagoning a little on the Jets, I like the setup only downside I am not a Bell fan.
I was wondering why I was so off on this side? What calculations do you use the most if player A is out or Player B is out, do you use a specific stat? Like WS/40 or pts or minutes played?
I use a really for me advanced system where I generate an offensive grade for each player on a team.
I get a total team points with player A
I get a total team points with the backup
and if A is out I adjust based on the difference from A to the backup
example A total team points is 120 with A and with B they get a total of 118 that would be a 2 point deduction to the side
now for the total I use to deduct or add for a player out but now that just never seems to be the case except in the NBA where the total moves a ton with 1 player out but WNBA not so much
thanks Rook, the issue is the line movement. I use to get very good market confirmation on most picks, I recently have lost that edge and not exactly sure why, maybe its playoff motivation not really sure.
thanks Rook, the issue is the line movement. I use to get very good market confirmation on most picks, I recently have lost that edge and not exactly sure why, maybe its playoff motivation not really sure.
That brings up a question for me. If you look at the closing line values of these final games of the season, do the closing line values reflect the 70% surge in overs? Are 70% of the closing totals higher than they were at the open?
That brings up a question for me. If you look at the closing line values of these final games of the season, do the closing line values reflect the 70% surge in overs? Are 70% of the closing totals higher than they were at the open?
Or, trying phrase this in a more relevant manner, if CLV can be used to determine whether or not a bettor has an edge in his betting, could it no be used in the same exact way for a killersports betting trend, to help decide if the trend is due merely to variance, or perhaps is driven by some underlying cause (and therefore has an edge)?
it sure looks that way today, the lines are all moving up on the totals from open.
WNBA is probably not the best market to consider CLV as strongly, small market with low limits.
I think people try to connect CLV to winning in the short term, you need 5k+ records to even consider the line value efficiency overall.
because the line moves from -120 to -140 that is indicative that the market thought -120 was soft and that -140 is probably more accurate but that only increases the likelihood of this being a winner by the same as the probabiltiy that -140 represents, it does not make it more likely to win than the -140 implies and the direction of the movement.
-120 to -140 bets win as often as -140 to -140 winners win long term.
that is where we find "value" because we only paid 120 to win 100 not 140 to win 100 and if it wins as often as -140 winner should and you only paid 120 you should have a + net.
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so I guess IMHO line movements mean nothing as far being indicative of a "winner" beyond what the closing line represents the probability to be - the juice
it sure looks that way today, the lines are all moving up on the totals from open.
WNBA is probably not the best market to consider CLV as strongly, small market with low limits.
I think people try to connect CLV to winning in the short term, you need 5k+ records to even consider the line value efficiency overall.
because the line moves from -120 to -140 that is indicative that the market thought -120 was soft and that -140 is probably more accurate but that only increases the likelihood of this being a winner by the same as the probabiltiy that -140 represents, it does not make it more likely to win than the -140 implies and the direction of the movement.
-120 to -140 bets win as often as -140 to -140 winners win long term.
that is where we find "value" because we only paid 120 to win 100 not 140 to win 100 and if it wins as often as -140 winner should and you only paid 120 you should have a + net.
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so I guess IMHO line movements mean nothing as far being indicative of a "winner" beyond what the closing line represents the probability to be - the juice
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The struggle is real.
You have it backwards. CLV has value in the short term. Actual results have more value than CLV over 5,000 bets.
You have it backwards. CLV has value in the short term. Actual results have more value than CLV over 5,000 bets.
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
You have it backwards. CLV has value in the short term. Actual results have more value than CLV over 5,000 bets.
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
You have it backwards. CLV has value in the short term. Actual results have more value than CLV over 5,000 bets.
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
the absolute most important role CLV plays is as a cliff detector. We have to know if we actually have an edge and when that edge is gone before we file bankruptcy. CLV does this very well and quickly. Winning and losing can be luck for 1000s of picks!
the absolute most important role CLV plays is as a cliff detector. We have to know if we actually have an edge and when that edge is gone before we file bankruptcy. CLV does this very well and quickly. Winning and losing can be luck for 1000s of picks!
so dan , last nights football game, chi was expected to score 25.25 pts , pinny close , you still think that using the 3pts they actually scored is meaningless .
Comments
Seattle broke my heart last night, they can burn in H E double hockey sticks!
I like Cincinnati today I mean that pitching matchup and only -130ish
Sparks are on fire they will probably win by 50
Storm will probably win by a ton too Fever have turned back again into last years team!
Red Sox I avoid like the plague, there are 2 teams the defending champions and the barely beat the Orioles team
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I am a diehard Broncos fan for life but I am bandwagoning a little on the Jets, I like the setup only downside I am not a Bell fan.
I was wondering why I was so off on this side? What calculations do you use the most if player A is out or Player B is out, do you use a specific stat? Like WS/40 or pts or minutes played?
I get a total team points with player A
I get a total team points with the backup
and if A is out I adjust based on the difference from A to the backup
example A total team points is 120 with A and with B they get a total of 118 that would be a 2 point deduction to the side
now for the total I use to deduct or add for a player out but now that just never seems to be the case except in the NBA where the total moves a ton with 1 player out but WNBA not so much
8-27
Liberty +6.5
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BET
8-27
Sky +3.5
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BET
8-27
Sun +1.5
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no line value either, I think I am missing something, maybe the playoff seeding issues going on!
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I am gonna air bet a couple days see if I can figure out what is going on. the line value is gone too! not just wins and losses
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
8/29
Los
Sparks
-6.5
8/29
Indi
Fever
158
8/29
Dall
Wings
160.5
8/29
Chic
Sky
-7
8/29
Phoe
Mercury
-4
8/29
Atla
Dream
154
</tbody>
9-1
Phoenix Under 169
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<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
9/1
Phoe
Mercury
166
9/1
Chic
Sky
-4
9/1
Atla
Dream
150
9/1
Seat
Storm
-10
9/1
Indi
Fever
156.5
9/1
Minn
Lynx
-8
</tbody>
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Rankings
Mystics
-9.90
Sun
-4.56
Sparks
-5.82
Lynx
-2.67
Sky
-2.98
Aces
-7.65
Mercury
-1.37
Wings
2.60
Storm
-4.20
Fever
2.14
Dream
4.64
Liberty
3.97
</tbody>
I think you should probably be skeptical of any under your calculations determine:
season = 2019 and game number > 25
O/U: 48-20-2 (70.6%)
That brings up a question for me. If you look at the closing line values of these final games of the season, do the closing line values reflect the 70% surge in overs? Are 70% of the closing totals higher than they were at the open?
Or, trying phrase this in a more relevant manner, if CLV can be used to determine whether or not a bettor has an edge in his betting, could it no be used in the same exact way for a killersports betting trend, to help decide if the trend is due merely to variance, or perhaps is driven by some underlying cause (and therefore has an edge)?
WNBA is probably not the best market to consider CLV as strongly, small market with low limits.
I think people try to connect CLV to winning in the short term, you need 5k+ records to even consider the line value efficiency overall.
because the line moves from -120 to -140 that is indicative that the market thought -120 was soft and that -140 is probably more accurate but that only increases the likelihood of this being a winner by the same as the probabiltiy that -140 represents, it does not make it more likely to win than the -140 implies and the direction of the movement.
-120 to -140 bets win as often as -140 to -140 winners win long term.
that is where we find "value" because we only paid 120 to win 100 not 140 to win 100 and if it wins as often as -140 winner should and you only paid 120 you should have a + net.
- - - Updated - - -
so I guess IMHO line movements mean nothing as far being indicative of a "winner" beyond what the closing line represents the probability to be - the juice
- - - Updated - - -
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
9/5
Las
Aces
-9.5
9/5
Atla
Dream
160
9/5
Seat
Storm
153.5
9/5
Los
Sparks
-5
</tbody>
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curious how these totals play out today, I got up early to get a jump on these lines
The struggle is real.
You have it backwards. CLV has value in the short term. Actual results have more value than CLV over 5,000 bets.
oh I was talking about the few games reference he was talking about, in a few games CLV or wins really have no indicative value
i feel like an idiot. i have to admit, i never have heard that simple statement but it is really enlightening. thanks for sharing.
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
- - - Updated - - -
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
- - - Updated - - -
I was not saying that you cant use CLV short term because you can what I was saying that you cant really feel the effects of line value (CLV) for tons of picks. you could have great CLV and only 800 games and be losing, its possible you wont truly see the effects of the CLV in the short term. You should definitely without doubt use CLV for market confirmation and determining true edge short and long term.
Thank God for CLV.
I sense sarcasm, LOL
and I think next weeks total will slightly adjust down for the Bears
I will take them +3.5 as soon as my deposit confirms network been slow at BOL
BET
Lynx +3.5
Hey Dan, where can we find your record on WNBA plays? Thanks!