To calculate that you convert to a percentage and take the Xth root where X is the number of legs. so -110 is 110/(110+100) = 110/210 = .5238, and the square root of .524 is .724, which means 72.4% per individual leg is the same as a 2 teamer at -110. +180 is 100/(180+100) =100/280 = .357 and the cubed root of .357 is .709, which means 70.9% per individual leg is the same as a 3 teamer at +180. 4 team +300 is a bit better than that one too. (70.7%), those will obviously have much higher variance and harder to find on one weekend.
Good math right there. Your exactly right on a Saturday night or Sunday morning when the lines are sharpest it's definitely hard to find 4 teams....thats where open teasers play a big part. Most PPH books will leave them open for 30 to 45 days. Thanks John!
Dodgers -155 it should be -180ish
Reds -115 should be -130ish
this is living proof I have no clue and I dont get it.
I model 12 games, 10 are really close and 2 or 3 are garbage and I cant figure out why. if I was flawed on some major thing it would show in all or most games and if it was 1 thing I am wrong on it should be apparent in all the games I am way off on. I really dont get it, does anyone see any particular thing about these 2 games in particular that they might have in common in one specific area or stat?
Dodgers -155 it should be -180ish
Reds -115 should be -130ish
I have LAD -133 and with Cincinatti a bit closer to even (injuries may be affecting line).
I'm working on my closing line value and MLB is easy but when points move for/against, what value would they be worth. I've got a generalization of this:
So I wagered NY Giants -2 -110 and closed Ny Giants -3 -120. I can make it easy using the ML value at point of entry and close, but it's not efficient doing it that way, however the betting tracker is converted that way? I'm trying to enter what points are worth vs just closing pts...
in all the sports I model except baseball, I am close on most games 9 out 10 at least and the one I am off on it usually at least moves in my direction baseball seems the opposite
it seems in baseball I am closer to the opening line than I am to the closing line on the bad ones. like I am doing closer to what they are modeling at the beginning and my adjustments for the game must not match up to what the market does.
I had Cincy -130 and it opened -115 and now moved to Cincy +120 completely against me but like I said I was closer to the opener and way farther from the actual close, any ideas and thanks for the reply
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<colgroup><col style="width: 158px"><col width="122"><col width="60"><col width="50"><col width="67"><col width="65"><col width="75"><col width="72"></colgroup><tbody>
Starter
Team
My Line
Closed
Bet at
Bet Amt.
Result
O/U
in all the sports I model except baseball, I am close on most games 9 out 10 at least and the one I am off on it usually at least moves in my direction baseball seems the opposite
it seems in baseball I am closer to the opening line than I am to the closing line on the bad ones. like I am doing closer to what they are modeling at the beginning and my adjustments for the game must not match up to what the market does.
I had Cincy -130 and it opened -115 and now moved to Cincy +120 completely against me but like I said I was closer to the opener and way farther from the actual close, any ideas and thanks for the reply
Not sure what your model looks like or what keys you are focused on, I'm stressing last 30 days (Current form) and last 30 days (hitting), not sure that would help. I like Cincinnati as Home dog as well. Let's see if there's a buy back, only missing Suarez.
Rams to me I think the league might have learned a thing or two about what they are gonna do. I think they had their shot and lost it to probably the best team in sports history!
Pats same ol thing, just win baby!
Browns come on talent is one thing but an inexperienced coach, obvious lack of commitment or team discipline, the drug cases, the big mouths all that never works out
Broncos are you serious Flacco come on, Bradley Chubb though he could be a DT or LT or who knows, WOW on that dude, but team cant score and the league is a scoring league now. Lock looks like a decent 10 year backup you can probably skip on that dream as him being the next Elway
Chiefs They will do the same thing win 12 13 games and fold, its what Reid teams do for some reason not sure why
Saints same ol thing but maybe this time the dice fall on their number and they get to the dance
Panthers really need Newton healthy or they are 3-13
Bears no change win 11 or so and fold up late
Raiders are dead, that team cant handle the BS
Jets are gonna really improve, Darnold will do well and they will be way way better and with the Dolphins practicing tanking already I say they win way more than expected
49ers will learn why they got Jimmy G so cheap, another bad year filled with injuries and a few bad characters peaking up in headlines
Seahawks are the sleeper, I think they might do some good stuff
any thoughts anyone ???
oh and I forgot the run and gun throw on 3rd and inches Cards, are you kidding me, the thought that the league rules and teams are built to score to win is not going to workout, Larry Fitz is a 104 years old and Crabtree really. Murray is a pure 100% bust that will excite the crowds with those 30 yard scrambles but a spy here and there and pressure and he is done! 2-14 for them and another 1st overall pick unless dolphins find out they are losing the 1st pick and tank even harder to get that 1st pick!
I have ham lines so much higher , so much higher i cant play it , what was your line on ham/bc ?
was down at the borgota in AC ....saw my favorite cover band B STREET BAND , BRUCEEEEEEEEEEEEE at the DECK at golden nugget.
South Jersey guys know
Rams to me I think the league might have learned a thing or two about what they are gonna do. I think they had their shot and lost it to probably the best team in sports history!
Pats same ol thing, just win baby!
Browns come on talent is one thing but an inexperienced coach, obvious lack of commitment or team discipline, the drug cases, the big mouths all that never works out
Broncos are you serious Flacco come on, Bradley Chubb though he could be a DT or LT or who knows, WOW on that dude, but team cant score and the league is a scoring league now. Lock looks like a decent 10 year backup you can probably skip on that dream as him being the next Elway
Chiefs They will do the same thing win 12 13 games and fold, its what Reid teams do for some reason not sure why
Saints same ol thing but maybe this time the dice fall on their number and they get to the dance
Panthers really need Newton healthy or they are 3-13
Bears no change win 11 or so and fold up late
Raiders are dead, that team cant handle the BS
Jets are gonna really improve, Darnold will do well and they will be way way better and with the Dolphins practicing tanking already I say they win way more than expected
49ers will learn why they got Jimmy G so cheap, another bad year filled with injuries and a few bad characters peaking up in headlines
Seahawks are the sleeper, I think they might do some good stuff
any thoughts anyone ???
oh and I forgot the run and gun throw on 3rd and inches Cards, are you kidding me, the thought that the league rules and teams are built to score to win is not going to workout, Larry Fitz is a 104 years old and Crabtree really. Murray is a pure 100% bust that will excite the crowds with those 30 yard scrambles but a spy here and there and pressure and he is done! 2-14 for them and another 1st overall pick unless dolphins find out they are losing the 1st pick and tank even harder to get that 1st pick!
I'll be on Denver week 2, schedule play. Week 1 is something I will look at certain steam, and then look for overreaction for week 2 as many do. I'm waiting to see if the holding penalties continue or was it just a warning by league? Also, teams aren't set, will configure defenses/offenses and chart them out this year, something I haven't done much of in past.
Comments
does anyone have any lines on these 2 games yet?
Good math right there. Your exactly right on a Saturday night or Sunday morning when the lines are sharpest it's definitely hard to find 4 teams....thats where open teasers play a big part. Most PPH books will leave them open for 30 to 45 days. Thanks John!
8-16
Sun Over 149.5
Dodgers -155 it should be -180ish
Reds -115 should be -130ish
this is living proof I have no clue and I dont get it.
I model 12 games, 10 are really close and 2 or 3 are garbage and I cant figure out why. if I was flawed on some major thing it would show in all or most games and if it was 1 thing I am wrong on it should be apparent in all the games I am way off on. I really dont get it, does anyone see any particular thing about these 2 games in particular that they might have in common in one specific area or stat?
I have LAD -133 and with Cincinatti a bit closer to even (injuries may be affecting line).
I'm working on my closing line value and MLB is easy but when points move for/against, what value would they be worth. I've got a generalization of this:
Point Spread Money Line -2 -130/+110 -2.5 -140/+120 -3 -155/+135 -3.5 -175/+155 -4 -200/+170 -4.5 -220/+180 -5/-5.5 -240/+190 -6 -270/+210 -6.5 -300/+220 -7 -330/+250 -7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280 -9/-9.5 -400/+300 -10 -450/+325
So I wagered NY Giants -2 -110 and closed Ny Giants -3 -120. I can make it easy using the ML value at point of entry and close, but it's not efficient doing it that way, however the betting tracker is converted that way? I'm trying to enter what points are worth vs just closing pts...
it seems in baseball I am closer to the opening line than I am to the closing line on the bad ones. like I am doing closer to what they are modeling at the beginning and my adjustments for the game must not match up to what the market does.
I had Cincy -130 and it opened -115 and now moved to Cincy +120 completely against me but like I said I was closer to the opener and way farther from the actual close, any ideas and thanks for the reply
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<colgroup><col style="width: 158px"><col width="122"><col width="60"><col width="50"><col width="67"><col width="65"><col width="75"><col width="72"></colgroup><tbody>
Starter
Team
My Line
Closed
Bet at
Bet Amt.
Result
O/U
Steven Brault
Pirates
130
10.39
Anthony DeSclafani
Reds
-133
8.30
Zach Eflin
Phillies
-111
9.35
Anibal Sanchez
Nationals
-127
10.01
Mike Foltynewicz
Braves
166
8.88
German Marquez
Rockies
-234
10.15
James Paxton
Yankees
-149
9.84
Eduardo Rodriguez
Red Sox
-292
11.30
Ariel Jurado
Rangers
136
11.05
Jose Suarez
Angels
-115
10.88
Jakob Junis
Royals
174
8.42
</tbody>
Not sure what your model looks like or what keys you are focused on, I'm stressing last 30 days (Current form) and last 30 days (hitting), not sure that would help. I like Cincinnati as Home dog as well. Let's see if there's a buy back, only missing Suarez.
No Votto as well..
I think the MLB evidence points to that very clearly!
- - - Updated - - -
Just like tonight...
yeah, I just been traveling went to visit some family in the Pacific Northwest, thanks for asking
- - - Updated - - -
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<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
8/20
New
Liberty
160
8/20
Indi
Fever
-4.5
8/20
Chic
Sky
-4
8/20
Atla
Dream
159
8/20
Phoe
Mercury
156.5
8/20
Las
Aces
-7.5
8/20
Minn
Lynx
154.5
8/20
Los
Sparks
-3.5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
BET
8-20 Lynx +6
8-23
Winnipeg +7
Ottawa +10.5
Lions Over 47
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<colgroup><col style="width: 102px"><col width="158"><col width="122"><col width="60"></colgroup><tbody>
8/20
Chris Archer
Pirates
142
8/20
Sonny Gray
Reds
-163
8/20
Dallas Keuchel
Braves
-233
8/20
Michael Wacha
Cardinals
106
8/20
Cole Hamels
Cubs
-184
8/20
Alex Young
Diamondbacks
-152
8/20
Dylan Bundy
Orioles
124
8/20
Michael Pineda
Twins
-200
8/20
Aaron Sanchez
Astros
-218
8/20
Homer Bailey
Athletics
112
8/20
Brian Johnson
Red Sox
105
8/20
Steven Matz
Mets
136
8/20
Clayton Kershaw
Dodgers
-212
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
I would take
Phillies +103
Brewers -104
Blue Jays +280
- - - Updated - - -
and
Royals +109
8/23
Chicago Under 175
BET
Aces Under 163
- - - Updated - - -
BET
Chicago Sky +6.5
come on folks lets talk about something anything.
Rams to me I think the league might have learned a thing or two about what they are gonna do. I think they had their shot and lost it to probably the best team in sports history!
Pats same ol thing, just win baby!
Browns come on talent is one thing but an inexperienced coach, obvious lack of commitment or team discipline, the drug cases, the big mouths all that never works out
Broncos are you serious Flacco come on, Bradley Chubb though he could be a DT or LT or who knows, WOW on that dude, but team cant score and the league is a scoring league now. Lock looks like a decent 10 year backup you can probably skip on that dream as him being the next Elway
Chiefs They will do the same thing win 12 13 games and fold, its what Reid teams do for some reason not sure why
Saints same ol thing but maybe this time the dice fall on their number and they get to the dance
Panthers really need Newton healthy or they are 3-13
Bears no change win 11 or so and fold up late
Raiders are dead, that team cant handle the BS
Jets are gonna really improve, Darnold will do well and they will be way way better and with the Dolphins practicing tanking already I say they win way more than expected
49ers will learn why they got Jimmy G so cheap, another bad year filled with injuries and a few bad characters peaking up in headlines
Seahawks are the sleeper, I think they might do some good stuff
any thoughts anyone ???
oh and I forgot the run and gun throw on 3rd and inches Cards, are you kidding me, the thought that the league rules and teams are built to score to win is not going to workout, Larry Fitz is a 104 years old and Crabtree really. Murray is a pure 100% bust that will excite the crowds with those 30 yard scrambles but a spy here and there and pressure and he is done! 2-14 for them and another 1st overall pick unless dolphins find out they are losing the 1st pick and tank even harder to get that 1st pick!
was down at the borgota in AC ....saw my favorite cover band B STREET BAND , BRUCEEEEEEEEEEEEE at the DECK at golden nugget.
South Jersey guys know
8-25
Fever +9
MLB: Seattle, Boston, Arizona, Cincinnati all playable in my opinion
WNBA: LA Sparks -4, Seattle -9, Over 1H Dallas/Atlanta 75
I'll be on Denver week 2, schedule play. Week 1 is something I will look at certain steam, and then look for overreaction for week 2 as many do. I'm waiting to see if the holding penalties continue or was it just a warning by league? Also, teams aren't set, will configure defenses/offenses and chart them out this year, something I haven't done much of in past.