I can see where in this market you would have an early edge if you were familiar with players and coaches. At the beginning of the season especially if players move around or coaching changes would definitely have an edge until market catches up. I dont know how closely odds makers monitor key injuries but that would also give someone an edge also. Just my thoughts
I can see where in this market you would have an early edge if you were familiar with players and coaches. At the beginning of the season especially if players move around or coaching changes would definitely have an edge until market catches up. I dont know how closely odds makers monitor key injuries but that would also give someone an edge also. Just my thoughts
I guess the books probably slightly lose on WNBA overall and just keep the limits super low and let their NBA bettors have a taste and not disappear.
here is what I had for these games but its starting to look weird already it will probably clean back up
I had 1.5 so I need it to be 3.5 or more for me to take it<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
Hey Cajun my MMA career is starting off phenomenal that line on Guida is down to +124, good stuff! I got it I think at like 155 or 160. I am guessing it keeps dropping too
I seen that. Congrats on the line move Dan. Im literally getting destroyed by the market this week haha.
Sucks dude, I think you got to get line value in pretty much every sport in order to win long term. I am going to see what I can do with the scrapes if I am come up with something worthwhile I will share it with you.
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Cajun do you know how to scrape, scraping is essential to getting enough game data. Scraping with google sheets is probably the easiest way. like i said the problem with that site you gave me is they add a number for each fighter URL
so if I pull a scrape of fighters it will be hard to automatically scrape them with this added number
for the Aces Cambage is out that is 3 or 4 point swing at least, dont get excited to see the Aces at -4 that is probably gonna keep going down!
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Sucks dude, I think you got to get line value in pretty much every sport in order to win long term. I am going to see what I can do with the scrapes if I am come up with something worthwhile I will share it with you.
Im 4-0 so far today with the resistance but you're absolutely right - not to mention it just makes me feel better pre-fight. Im Still Road Trippin so I'm trying to watch fights on my little phone haha
Im 4-0 so far today with the resistance but you're absolutely right - not to mention it just makes me feel better pre-fight. Im Still Road Trippin so I'm trying to watch fights on my little phone haha
did you see the poor guy, he fell asleep? I mean I heard of tired but he he actually went to sleep
He is prone to submission. Some these UFC handicappers apparently know their stuff. Not to worry though because with that kind of value you cannot lose.
He is prone to submission. Some these UFC handicappers apparently know their stuff. Not to worry though because with that kind of value you cannot lose.
whenever you doubt line value just google Vegas Casino Billionaires
yesterday was a disaster, I wrote the wrong team name on my bet, I lost all of them, huge mess and the line value was as ugly as it gets. Todays line's look closer and I dont see any bets yet.
for you to be this quite, for this long , something must be wrong , you ok
LOL, no I am fine, thanks. I guess its kinda limited here with anyone that wants to talk. I want to argue line value, line efficiency, how to handle the ups and downs of long term small roi betting and more. People dont seem too interested in that stuff, so I kinda just quit chatting so much
I'll give my 2c in the spirit of contributing but it may not be particularly insightful. in terms of how to handle the ups and downs, i just try to bet well below where it would cause me grief and use cash accounts. in terms of value and line efficiency, i tend to think the market is less efficient that perhaps some of the numbers guys do. i am sure people will disagree with that statement. i really like how you approach the idea that if youre getting what everyone else is getting in terms of numbers, that isnt what youre looking to do. i am not as mathematically or computer inclined, but i fundamentally agree with your point (sorry if that is a bad thing ). One example I can think of is recruiting and how it affects CFB. I would imagine it is hard to have a very efficient model that takes into account player development (rapid at college age) and player turnover. that also is not particularly insightful but i think given the choice of doing what everyone else is doing and getting similar numbers as opposed to doing something along the lines of what youre looking for (differentiation), i would gladly take differentiation (you may know quite quickly if it is bad differentiation). i dont know if any of that blabber makes sense, or if it is obvious, but given all you have done for the forum i wanted to try to provide something back to you.
for me I think one fundamental difference exists
example
Raiders play Broncos
score is 57-20
line was Raiders -10 and total was 44
now if they play tomorrow again all things equal same players, same field
what should the line be closer to now
Total 77 Raiders -37 or Raiders -11 Total 45 and if you think -11 45 is the correct answer, why would you use any of the 77 -37 crap at all for anything?
so I dont model what has actually happened, I model what should have happened, I think this makes a huge difference and is the major difference between me and other people
that makes a lot of sense, and sounds like i misunderstood your intent (shocker). that is probably at the heart of why people do things like yards per play over score (duh).
how did you get started learning to scrap and code? i feel like this is the question that always gets asked but hard to answer because people say just throw yourself into it. when ive tried, i felt like i only knew very specific things and not how to create. probably just takes more time i guess.
the thing is coding to me is dead, I truly believe player, stadium and rest knowledge is the only thing needed these days.
there are enough good power rankings out there and of course you can always use opening lines as a power ranking, coding is not needed.
you need to know what its worth for the Warriors at home and if Klay is not playing that is the most important stuff
Say Sagarin has Warriors -8 and the line opens -6.5 and you know Klay is not playing, so you know with searching and research and maybe some EA sports type player ranking system you know Klay is worth 3 when he is out, so take Sags -8 and subtract 3 for Klay gives you -5 and now this probably has a hit and miss of 1 or 2 points so you wait if it gets far enough away from 5 BET!
if you really want to code you can try this book, for me its useless because I dont believe in the using actual game data, I prefer bet data but it probably can teach you a ton.
player weather and rest is way way more important today than game data, game data can be found in seconds on the web using power rankings sites and opening lines, "other" data is more important
for me I think one fundamental difference exists
example
Raiders play Broncos
score is 57-20
line was Raiders -10 and total was 44
now if they play tomorrow again all things equal same players, same field
what should the line be closer to now
Total 77 Raiders -37 or Raiders -11 Total 45 and if you think -11 45 is the correct answer, why would you use any of the 77 -37 crap at all for anything?
so I dont model what has actually happened, I model what should have happened, I think this makes a huge difference and is the major difference between me and other people
That is not a difference. The people that model use the same approach. The average bettor might take more into consideration. sometimes justly so and sometimes not. However, you cannot compare yourself to the average bettor as a modeler because their opinions are not really factored into the line. The line is basically entirely the result of modeling.
in a weird way that jives with how i try to find plays in my head. i do not claim to have any beatable edge but i do try to pick my spots with weather or a change that may or may not be accurately reflected. obviously doing this in my head is a lot less reliable/repeatable/trustworthy but for me i just enjoy trying to beat something (get your mind out of the gutter).
college football is the only market where i have shown any success (however modest) and it is probably a reflection of my love for the sport manifesting itself in a sport that is constantly changing. the other thing i try to account for is stylistic mismatches but that could already be accounted for. sunbelter (may be before your time) seemed to prove this was possible and i think most would agree for the small markets or smaller conferences, it is using only our heads. although i do not know for sure whether sunbelter had any models.
Danshan, when you first came on this site, a few people thought you were trolling, trying to make waves just for shits and giggles. I considered the possibility for a while, but soon enough it became obvious that trolling wasnt your agenda. But that begs the question: what IS your agenda? Are you going to beat on the books relentlessly until you have stripped 10s of millions of dollars from them? Are you going to beat on them relentlessly until you have stripped a more modest amount from them? What is the danshan prime directive?
my goal is to try to
have huge volume with the greatest number of bets I can get that have what I would say is as close as possible to true expected ROI (bet line to closed line). I dont want 10 bets a day at 5000, I want 100 bets a day at 500 and my goal right now is a 5% expected ROI before juice. so roughly that translates into a good 2.5ish% of +ROI.
I dont believe a person betting a few games a day can overcome the possibility of negative variance
I dont believe a person betting without line value can sustain a long term profit and even if they could they would not know when that edge is gone without line value as the gauge. Long term winners who do not beat the line never know when their edge is gone until they are bankrupt!
That is not a difference. The people that model use the same approach. The average bettor might take more into consideration. sometimes justly so and sometimes not. However, you cannot compare yourself to the average bettor as a modeler because their opinions are not really factored into the line. The line is basically entirely the result of modeling.
yes but most modelers model actual game result data (like last 10 games or so) and actual game data to me is not the best data, projected data (the line) is more accurate data, actual game data has lots of noise in it.
Broncos avg 30 last 10 but the line avg was 20, I think 20 is more valuable to predict future performance not 30, yes projected data uses actual game data to project but lots of regressions are included in the projected data that are not in the actual game data.
this is why player, weather and rest projected data is so valuable is so valuable.
if I was qualified to give advice which of course I am not I would advice learn to model players not teams, know your adjustments better than the teams. If the Broncos got Mahomes right now what would he do to their year win totals or the teams over unders that is vital data that makes a huge difference. Most times player changes have too big or too little effect. Aaron Donald is a great example arguably one of the best players in the NFL, if all else is equal what does Donald do to a line, that is more valuable than good team power rankings, for Donald I would guess most people over value his impact on the line, if that is the case this creates opportunities to get some line advantage
Comments
Dream +3.5 +106ish which means it is about to turn to +4 but I am taking it at +3.5 +104
BET
8-3
Dream +3.5 +104
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For the Vegas game I have -7 with no major injuries.
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I guess the books probably slightly lose on WNBA overall and just keep the limits super low and let their NBA bettors have a taste and not disappear.
8-3 Dream ML +157
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BET
Lynx +3.5
Do you have this -3'?
I had 1.5 so I need it to be 3.5 or more for me to take it<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
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BET
8-3 Wings Over 146.5
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Sucks dude, I think you got to get line value in pretty much every sport in order to win long term. I am going to see what I can do with the scrapes if I am come up with something worthwhile I will share it with you.
- - - Updated - - -
Cajun do you know how to scrape, scraping is essential to getting enough game data. Scraping with google sheets is probably the easiest way. like i said the problem with that site you gave me is they add a number for each fighter URL
so if I pull a scrape of fighters it will be hard to automatically scrape them with this added number
https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Robbie-Lawler-227
you see the Robbie Lawler that would be perfect but that 227 makes it more fun and difficult. I am working on it
Im 4-0 so far today with the resistance but you're absolutely right - not to mention it just makes me feel better pre-fight. Im Still Road Trippin so I'm trying to watch fights on my little phone haha
CODE"<th class="oppcell"><="/fighters/Robbie-Lawler-227"><div>Robbie Lawler</div></a></td>"CODERobbie Lawler
""Robbie Lawler
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4-0 is nice!
Great value!
did you see the poor guy, he fell asleep? I mean I heard of tired but he he actually went to sleep
He is prone to submission. Some these UFC handicappers apparently know their stuff. Not to worry though because with that kind of value you cannot lose.
whenever you doubt line value just google Vegas Casino Billionaires
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
8/4
Conn
Sun
-6.5
8/4
New
Liberty
156.5
8/4
Seat
Storm
153
8/4
Los
Sparks
-3
8/4
Wash
Mystics
-6
8/4
Phoe
Mercury
158
</tbody>
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yesterday was a disaster, I wrote the wrong team name on my bet, I lost all of them, huge mess and the line value was as ugly as it gets. Todays line's look closer and I dont see any bets yet.
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8-4
BET
Storm +5.5
BET
Storm Over 148
LOL, no I am fine, thanks. I guess its kinda limited here with anyone that wants to talk. I want to argue line value, line efficiency, how to handle the ups and downs of long term small roi betting and more. People dont seem too interested in that stuff, so I kinda just quit chatting so much
BET
Dream Over 145.5
I have 149 so 145.5 is a bet
Calgary +8.5
BC Lions +12.5
BC Lions Over 51
edit: i cant spell
example
Raiders play Broncos
score is 57-20
line was Raiders -10 and total was 44
now if they play tomorrow again all things equal same players, same field
what should the line be closer to now
Total 77 Raiders -37 or Raiders -11 Total 45 and if you think -11 45 is the correct answer, why would you use any of the 77 -37 crap at all for anything?
so I dont model what has actually happened, I model what should have happened, I think this makes a huge difference and is the major difference between me and other people
how did you get started learning to scrap and code? i feel like this is the question that always gets asked but hard to answer because people say just throw yourself into it. when ive tried, i felt like i only knew very specific things and not how to create. probably just takes more time i guess.
there are enough good power rankings out there and of course you can always use opening lines as a power ranking, coding is not needed.
you need to know what its worth for the Warriors at home and if Klay is not playing that is the most important stuff
Say Sagarin has Warriors -8 and the line opens -6.5 and you know Klay is not playing, so you know with searching and research and maybe some EA sports type player ranking system you know Klay is worth 3 when he is out, so take Sags -8 and subtract 3 for Klay gives you -5 and now this probably has a hit and miss of 1 or 2 points so you wait if it gets far enough away from 5 BET!
if you really want to code you can try this book, for me its useless because I dont believe in the using actual game data, I prefer bet data but it probably can teach you a ton.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07SPWLYQJ
[h=1]Statistical Sports Models in Excel[/h]
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player weather and rest is way way more important today than game data, game data can be found in seconds on the web using power rankings sites and opening lines, "other" data is more important
That is not a difference. The people that model use the same approach. The average bettor might take more into consideration. sometimes justly so and sometimes not. However, you cannot compare yourself to the average bettor as a modeler because their opinions are not really factored into the line. The line is basically entirely the result of modeling.
college football is the only market where i have shown any success (however modest) and it is probably a reflection of my love for the sport manifesting itself in a sport that is constantly changing. the other thing i try to account for is stylistic mismatches but that could already be accounted for. sunbelter (may be before your time) seemed to prove this was possible and i think most would agree for the small markets or smaller conferences, it is using only our heads. although i do not know for sure whether sunbelter had any models.
i appreciate your feedback and plays, of course.
have huge volume with the greatest number of bets I can get that have what I would say is as close as possible to true expected ROI (bet line to closed line). I dont want 10 bets a day at 5000, I want 100 bets a day at 500 and my goal right now is a 5% expected ROI before juice. so roughly that translates into a good 2.5ish% of +ROI.
I dont believe a person betting a few games a day can overcome the possibility of negative variance
I dont believe a person betting without line value can sustain a long term profit and even if they could they would not know when that edge is gone without line value as the gauge. Long term winners who do not beat the line never know when their edge is gone until they are bankrupt!
yes but most modelers model actual game result data (like last 10 games or so) and actual game data to me is not the best data, projected data (the line) is more accurate data, actual game data has lots of noise in it.
Broncos avg 30 last 10 but the line avg was 20, I think 20 is more valuable to predict future performance not 30, yes projected data uses actual game data to project but lots of regressions are included in the projected data that are not in the actual game data.
this is why player, weather and rest projected data is so valuable is so valuable.
if I was qualified to give advice which of course I am not I would advice learn to model players not teams, know your adjustments better than the teams. If the Broncos got Mahomes right now what would he do to their year win totals or the teams over unders that is vital data that makes a huge difference. Most times player changes have too big or too little effect. Aaron Donald is a great example arguably one of the best players in the NFL, if all else is equal what does Donald do to a line, that is more valuable than good team power rankings, for Donald I would guess most people over value his impact on the line, if that is the case this creates opportunities to get some line advantage