UFC San Antonio wager*/line movement
Adams -106*/-126
Hernandez -164*/-233
Oleinik +133*/+142
Pennington +138*/+122
Dos Anjo/Edwards u4½+142*/+130
Pro Boxing
Thurman +154*/+140
Captured CLV on 5 out of 6 plays - just wasn't meant to be.
UFC 240
Parlay Robertson/Jotko/Tsarukyan/Neal/Holloway +610 - take the comeback on Edger if other legs hit.
Only sport I parlay - alot of success- fav heavy card IMO. GL
The Ruthless One should not be this price. His takedown defense and defensive grappling is better than advertised, showed up in phenomenal shape in his last fight - expect the same for this matchup. Colby is very hittable on feet and Robbie comes with that Kill or be Killed instinct. Great fight.
UFC 240
Parlay Robertson/Jotko/Tsarukyan/Neal/Holloway +610 - take the comeback on Edger if other legs hit.
Only sport I parlay - alot of success- fav heavy card IMO. GL
I'm curious as to why one would be successful parlaying the card. Is there something correlated in these fights, like a common ref or something? (i dont watch alot of UFC)
Don't look too deep into it like the straight picks i post - I normally always have a parlay, usually a 3 team or open parlay on fight cards and have been successful (only in this sport and only
this promotion). I don't normally post them. Big fav in UFC cash at a high % - and after I run metrics and tape a card and deem it fav heavy i usually toss a unit with the expectation it washes. This particular card more heavy than usual and wanted to get more down on certain fighters than I was able to otherwise. Probably not the answer you were looking for but GL.
Person who's opinion that I respect ran numbers and said Canadian fighters fighting Non Canadian fighters in Canada win at 64ish % percent when going to score cards? Seems a little high but I have not run the statistics myself and no reason to believe he would make up an arbitrary number.
Canada - Russia - Brazil - Australia I usually include a 5% edge to hometown fighters - smaller for other overseas venues. I may need to look deeper in future.
Abu Dhabi card will present another handicapping issue I have no statistics or gut feeling for - religion. Nothing against anyone's faith, but I believe it could play a role. Judges are humans with built-in biases and core beliefs.
"I spoke with Olivier Aubin at media day and he told me that he had commissioned an MMA handicapper to give him a scouting report on his opponent.
It was 5 pages and he and his coaches were shocked at how detailed it was and how many things they hadn't noticed in their own research."
This is interesting. Assuming legit guy because he remains Anonymous at this point. The Philly Godfather esque types or whoever else would have made their own press release to tout their 5 page report.
The Ruthless One should not be this price. His takedown defense and defensive grappling is better than advertised, showed up in phenomenal shape in his last fight - expect the same for this matchup. Colby is very hittable on feet and Robbie comes with that Kill or be Killed instinct. Great fight.
UFC 240
Parlay Robertson/Jotko/Tsarukyan/Neal/Holloway +610 - take the comeback on Edger if other legs hit.
Only sport I parlay - alot of success- fav heavy card IMO. GL
Getting a ton of Market disagreement this week also - every fighter i took this week on here has came off a hugely disappointing fight - but misread the level of recency bias. Some of the resistance I understand but others I have no idea what's going on.
This will sound ridiculously Square - alot of you may think im square to begin with- but if any of you have access to Robert Whitaker/Isreal betting lines im gonna hit Whitaker pretty hard. I have NOT capped this fight (been on a 4000+ mile road trip since Monday- and im old school so very slow and tedious for me to cap.) So basiclly i have no idea were the line may go.
I cant bet openers at corporates,and not ONE of my many PPH have a line. Some of you maybe able to get decent $ down spread out.
Alot of Folks forget about what a damn warrior Robert has been - and the level of competition he has faced since we have not seen him in awhile. Im very high on Isreal - he was the 1st bet i posted on this forum and he answered every question i had about him in his last fight with Gastelum. But Robert went 5 rds with Yoel Fucking Romero - then volunteered to go 5 more rds with a killer and Olympic silver medalist and silver back gorilla killer named Romero. 50min in a cage.
Robert "the Reaper" Whittaker -133 rn @ pinny
Did i mention he went 50min in cage with the " Soldier of God" ?
The Ruthless One should not be this price. His takedown defense and defensive grappling is better than advertised, showed up in phenomenal shape in his last fight - expect the same for this matchup. Colby is very hittable on feet and Robbie comes with that Kill or be Killed instinct. Great fight.
Getting a ton of Market disagreement this week also - every fighter i took this week on here has came off a hugely disappointing fight - but misread the level of recency bias. Some of the resistance I understand but others I have no idea what's going on.
4-0 so far on fight card. This market is chaos or I'm just a lucky MF.
4-2 +2.11
Bad read on main event - not sure what Lawlers strategy or game plan was - never let his hands go. Looked like a mismatch. Oh well profit is profit.
UFC YTD 30-24 +16.77
Pro Boxing 0-1 (-1.00)
- - - Updated - - -
Hit a huge 4tm parlay with 2 dogs on this card also but i know most of you guys not interested in those type of plays.
Comments
Adams -106*/-126
Hernandez -164*/-233
Oleinik +133*/+142
Pennington +138*/+122
Dos Anjo/Edwards u4½+142*/+130
Pro Boxing
Thurman +154*/+140
Captured CLV on 5 out of 6 plays - just wasn't meant to be.
Seungwoo Choi +135
Krzysztof Jotko -166
Erik Koch -101
Missed the move on this one but still think there is value.
Parlay Robertson/Jotko/Tsarukyan/Neal/Holloway +610 - take the comeback on Edger if other legs hit.
Only sport I parlay - alot of success- fav heavy card IMO. GL
Robbie Lawler +200
The Ruthless One should not be this price. His takedown defense and defensive grappling is better than advertised, showed up in phenomenal shape in his last fight - expect the same for this matchup. Colby is very hittable on feet and Robbie comes with that Kill or be Killed instinct. Great fight.
I'm curious as to why one would be successful parlaying the card. Is there something correlated in these fights, like a common ref or something? (i dont watch alot of UFC)
this promotion). I don't normally post them. Big fav in UFC cash at a high % - and after I run metrics and tape a card and deem it fav heavy i usually toss a unit with the expectation it washes. This particular card more heavy than usual and wanted to get more down on certain fighters than I was able to otherwise. Probably not the answer you were looking for but GL.
Canada - Russia - Brazil - Australia I usually include a 5% edge to hometown fighters - smaller for other overseas venues. I may need to look deeper in future.
Abu Dhabi card will present another handicapping issue I have no statistics or gut feeling for - religion. Nothing against anyone's faith, but I believe it could play a role. Judges are humans with built-in biases and core beliefs.
"I spoke with Olivier Aubin at media day and he told me that he had commissioned an MMA handicapper to give him a scouting report on his opponent.
It was 5 pages and he and his coaches were shocked at how detailed it was and how many things they hadn't noticed in their own research."
This is interesting. Assuming legit guy because he remains Anonymous at this point. The Philly Godfather esque types or whoever else would have made their own press release to tout their 5 page report.
Arman Tsarukyan -159
I really like this price. Great (not elite) grappling, underrated standup game - can switch up stances/give different looks and create problems.
BTW his opponent is the guy who paid a MMA handicapper too give him a scouting report on Arman.
Cyborg - 558 (pinny)
My # -1490 neutral cage
- 1325 visiting cage
Of course since I post this she gets rear naked choked in 1st rd haha
Alexis Davis +160
Koch +1.00
Choi -1.00
1-1 0.00
- - - Updated - - -
Mickey Gall -107
Davis -1.00
Thought she could pressure her out her game....no.
1-2 (-1.00)
Jotko +1.00
Arman Tsarukyan +1.00
3-2 +1.00
Its Time!!! Guarantee profit
Edger +270
Decent night guys
Felt like a heavy fav card and for most part it played out like that. Overall we made some good profit.
4-3 +6.10 on night
YTD 26-22 +14.66
Antonina Shevchenko -147
Taking a shot on this kid, he lost his UFC debut earlier this year. Thin Value.
This will sound ridiculously Square - alot of you may think im square to begin with- but if any of you have access to Robert Whitaker/Isreal betting lines im gonna hit Whitaker pretty hard. I have NOT capped this fight (been on a 4000+ mile road trip since Monday- and im old school so very slow and tedious for me to cap.) So basiclly i have no idea were the line may go.
I cant bet openers at corporates,and not ONE of my many PPH have a line. Some of you maybe able to get decent $ down spread out.
Alot of Folks forget about what a damn warrior Robert has been - and the level of competition he has faced since we have not seen him in awhile. Im very high on Isreal - he was the 1st bet i posted on this forum and he answered every question i had about him in his last fight with Gastelum. But Robert went 5 rds with Yoel Fucking Romero - then volunteered to go 5 more rds with a killer and Olympic silver medalist and silver back gorilla killer named Romero. 50min in a cage.
Robert "the Reaper" Whittaker -133 rn @ pinny
Did i mention he went 50min in cage with the " Soldier of God" ?
Lawler/Covington U4.5 +122
4-0 so far on fight card. This market is chaos or I'm just a lucky MF.
4-2 +2.11
Bad read on main event - not sure what Lawlers strategy or game plan was - never let his hands go. Looked like a mismatch. Oh well profit is profit.
UFC YTD 30-24 +16.77
Pro Boxing 0-1 (-1.00)
- - - Updated - - -
Hit a huge 4tm parlay with 2 dogs on this card also but i know most of you guys not interested in those type of plays.
Wager*/Close
Schnell +101*/+141
Shevchenko -147*/-155
Nzechukwu +110*/+106
Gall -107*/+100
Lawler +200*/+265
Lawler/Cov u4.5 +122*/+115
Yea i got murdered.
Casey Kenney +130
Ilir Latifi +133
Capped this fight back in May - fight was canceled. I dont beleive much has changed...i made a latifi a slight fav or pick. Ill take the + money.