More complete grappler and the much bigger guy come fight night. Frustrated because when i wagered i couldnt post here(i got adv odds of +160) and line moved. Still think it holds value. GL.
Costa outlands his opponents 9% on averaged - Yoel outlands opponents 13%, not counting his grappling or strength of schedule. Not giving too much thought on this one - just watching this man fight is enough for me.
Doubling down on my opinion here. Hard to factor in age hunger and when that cliff will come. However Yoel has the option to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place. If he chooses to stand in the pocket and throw hands then -175ish probably correct - if he mixes olympic level grappling then he takes this 69% of the time.
Yoel Romero -187 & -164 (2 units total @ adv odds -175)
The 2nd Champ I'm wagering against from American Kickboxing Academy in as many weeks. Some thin Value on this line - may get better once public starts hammering fav late - maybe not. 1st fight DC(from my hometown) exposed Stipe's weakness breaking Clinch - rematch will be a very different affair. Great fight either way.
Nate Diaz +104
Back and forth. Pick'em to me. Give me + on the Stockton Gangster in Cali ill take it. Long lay off and alot of weed but a triathlon freak, cardio no issue born fighter and asshole. This will be war. Pettis slightly over valued after getting picked apart for 2 rds and then landing a superman punch on Wonder Boy. Show me something
Assuncao a proven veteran and a live dog here....i like Cory's length and volume - he cleared up alot of doubts i had about him in a decision win against Lineker earlier this year.
Probably not treated fairly. Fighters are strange creatures that are almost 100% Reliant on their confidence. Cyborg - while im sure there is more too it - appears to be ducking Nunes....and 1 thing about the UFC at the top level the best will fight the best on any given fight card ....unlike boxing. Women's divisions or even crazier because there's even less of a talent pool so a lot of these girls have to fight each other over and over and over again.
I think cyborg will go on to make ALOT of money in another promotion and be a star.
5dimes practically begging me to throw a half unit on Liz at +800. She is a legit beast on the mat and Shevchenko takes unneeded chances with some Judo type take downs and low % submission setups...but if this stays standing She might Murder Liz. Liz gas tank for 5 rds might also be a issue. I def hope they set the O/U @ 4.5rds.
Another good match up...go either way. Lets see what judges say lol. Pretty even on my card... obviously i have my bias. Always prefer the dog in a decision.
- - - Updated - - -
Yea well on the wrong end of the split here. Dont disagree. Good match making by the UFC.
Rodolfo Vieira
This guy a world class jiu jitsu specialist with good wrestling - possibly the next Demian Maia pedigree. Of course the market didn't agree with me here either- will have to check later to make sure - so much chaos during card.
Rodolfo Vieira
This guy a world class jiu jitsu specialist with good wrestling - possibly the next Demian Maia pedigree. Of course the market didn't agree with me here either- will have to check later to make sure - so much chaos during card.
2-2 (-0.25)
- - - Updated - - -
Latifi single leg is almost as good is Daniel Cormier. No lie.
2-3 (-1.25)
Nothing to complain about - great knee, decent pressure to finish.
2-3 (-1.25)
Nothing to complain about - great knee, decent pressure to finish.
BTW Latifi got finished but ill take him 6 of 10 everyday of week and twice on Sunday. Of course its a cage fight - but i think he wins that 6 of 10. But who really knows.
Only disappointment was the main event total, liz was a shot at off odds, and Latifi catching a knee is what it is, other 2 just didnt get called our way - gets worked out in the wash eventually. No worries. Very tiny profit on untracked plays.
FYI anyone who is tailing on next week card - UFC 241 - i posted 3 dogs and 2 fav here last week and waiting on line moves for others.
1 dog and BOTH fav have moved against me. IDK the market sentiment; just being straightforward. Been getting alot of resistance lately - normally i dont mind it but it has been more than years prior so i am prepped for variance.
Value on this kid. His TD defense technically pretty good even tho his stats say otherwise - the elite grapplers in division man handled him - but they that to everyone. Ho Kang rightful fav but dont think his TDs are something Davis cant scramble and defend. We will see.
I may have to take a break and reevaluate how i do things - these lines drifting pretty bad on me.
I said before i dont mind market resistance in MMA as compared to larger markets - but im getting alot more than usual as of late.
Having a very successful Year on all bets and the ones i have posted here over the last 4 months have not done too bad either. I dont believe the way I handicap Two fighters is flawed but maybe the way I price and create odds are.
Doubling down on my opinion here. Hard to factor in age hunger and when that cliff will come. However Yoel has the option to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place. If he chooses to stand in the pocket and throw hands then -175ish probably correct - if he mixes olympic level grappling then he takes this 69% of the time.
Yoel Romero -187 & -164 (2 units total @ adv odds -175)
Gonna live and Die by my opinion on this one. Tripling down. Costa will bring it, level changes with strikes and changes up Rhythm nicely -but Yoel chins him with counter - mats him then finishes him. Fuck it.
Value on this kid. His TD defense technically pretty good even tho his stats say otherwise - the elite grapplers in division man handled him - but they that to everyone. Ho Kang rightful fav but dont think his TDs are something Davis cant scramble and defend. We will see.
0-1(-1.00)
Wrong end of split decision...our dog was the value.
Comments
Rogerio Bontorin -124
Odds move closer to where i like since opening. Ill fav the submission specialist here - he came thru for me as a huge dog back in February.
Bobby Moffett +145
More complete grappler and the much bigger guy come fight night. Frustrated because when i wagered i couldnt post here(i got adv odds of +160) and line moved. Still think it holds value. GL.
Doubling down on my opinion here. Hard to factor in age hunger and when that cliff will come. However Yoel has the option to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place. If he chooses to stand in the pocket and throw hands then -175ish probably correct - if he mixes olympic level grappling then he takes this 69% of the time.
Yoel Romero -187 & -164 (2 units total @ adv odds -175)
Nate Diaz +104
Back and forth. Pick'em to me. Give me + on the Stockton Gangster in Cali ill take it. Long lay off and alot of weed but a triathlon freak, cardio no issue born fighter and asshole. This will be war. Pettis slightly over valued after getting picked apart for 2 rds and then landing a superman punch on Wonder Boy. Show me something
Cory Sandhagen -164
Assuncao a proven veteran and a live dog here....i like Cory's length and volume - he cleared up alot of doubts i had about him in a decision win against Lineker earlier this year.
Probably not treated fairly. Fighters are strange creatures that are almost 100% Reliant on their confidence. Cyborg - while im sure there is more too it - appears to be ducking Nunes....and 1 thing about the UFC at the top level the best will fight the best on any given fight card ....unlike boxing. Women's divisions or even crazier because there's even less of a talent pool so a lot of these girls have to fight each other over and over and over again.
I think cyborg will go on to make ALOT of money in another promotion and be a star.
Probably get literaly murdered on feet here - but if this goes to the ground within the first 2 rds this has a legit chance.
Liz gas tank is not usually built for 5rds...
Got killed here on clv , of course i have no idea where this "sharp action " but this was a total miss match regardless of the doctor stoppage.
1-0 +1.00
1-1 - 0.25
Good fight, grappler got the win - i was on the wrong side this time. I like fights like this.
- - - Updated - - -
Yea well on the wrong end of the split here. Dont disagree. Good match making by the UFC.
1-2 -1.25
This guy a world class jiu jitsu specialist with good wrestling - possibly the next Demian Maia pedigree. Of course the market didn't agree with me here either- will have to check later to make sure - so much chaos during card.
2-2 (-0.25)
- - - Updated - - -
Latifi single leg is almost as good is Daniel Cormier. No lie.
2-3 (-1.25)
Nothing to complain about - great knee, decent pressure to finish.
BTW Latifi got finished but ill take him 6 of 10 everyday of week and twice on Sunday. Of course its a cage fight - but i think he wins that 6 of 10. But who really knows.
2-5 (-2.92)
Only disappointment was the main event total, liz was a shot at off odds, and Latifi catching a knee is what it is, other 2 just didnt get called our way - gets worked out in the wash eventually. No worries. Very tiny profit on untracked plays.
ProBoxing 0-1 (-1.00)
1 dog and BOTH fav have moved against me. IDK the market sentiment; just being straightforward. Been getting alot of resistance lately - normally i dont mind it but it has been more than years prior so i am prepped for variance.
Brandon Davis +155
Value on this kid. His TD defense technically pretty good even tho his stats say otherwise - the elite grapplers in division man handled him - but they that to everyone. Ho Kang rightful fav but dont think his TDs are something Davis cant scramble and defend. We will see.
I said before i dont mind market resistance in MMA as compared to larger markets - but im getting alot more than usual as of late.
Having a very successful Year on all bets and the ones i have posted here over the last 4 months have not done too bad either. I dont believe the way I handicap Two fighters is flawed but maybe the way I price and create odds are.
Ian Heinisch -155
Gonna live and Die by my opinion on this one. Tripling down. Costa will bring it, level changes with strikes and changes up Rhythm nicely -but Yoel chins him with counter - mats him then finishes him. Fuck it.
Yoel Romero -130
Cifers/Jodie U2.5 +420
0-1(-1.00)
Wrong end of split decision...our dog was the value.