Best wrestler/ Grappler; who before March of this year never fought in the UFC. Undefeated One and Belator 170lb Champion. Jorge Masvidal has had a bit of resurgence in his long career, he will have to figure out to stop multipule chain wrestling take downs and try to scatter his brain with shots as he level changes. Otherwise it will be a literal Mauling on the mat.
I hit Askren again at -208 early this morning - if they want to keep hanging it i will take it.
I don't see Jorge being able to keep this off the ground, and even a hurt Ben can demoralize a man on the Mat until he looks for a way out. I think he takes this 7or 8 times out of 10.
I hit Askren again at -208 early this morning - if they want to keep hanging it i will take it.
I don't see Jorge being able to keep this off the ground, and even a hurt Ben can demoralize a man on the Mat until he looks for a way out. I think he takes this 7or 8 times out of 10.
Askrin -204 ...yall already know what I'm doing.
Guess I didn't expect as much Jorge support, maybe I'm looking at this fight completely wrong, maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about. I project Askrin -265 so I'll take again.
Hey Cajun. Know nothing about this sport but a friend of mine told me to play Sanchez +300. Any thoughts on that.
Apologize for not seeing this sooner - with my perfect hindsight I would say NO lol. No really, I did study him early in week but age, size and grappling differential turned me off along with his really strange demeanor during the week.
Best wrestler/ Grappler; who before March of this year never fought in the UFC. Undefeated One and Belator 170lb Champion. Jorge Masvidal has had a bit of resurgence in his long career, he will have to figure out to stop multipule chain wrestling take downs and try to scatter his brain with shots as he level changes. Otherwise it will be a literal Mauling on the mat.
I'm still SMH at that flying knee KO of Askrin. I said it the break down Jorge would have to scatter his brain when Ben level changes to win - he nuked his brain. I'm just hoping Ben dosent retire- his wrestling game is really special to watch. Last night it came out that the Flying Knee to start the fight was the game script - looking at line movement I wonder if some folks had that inside info.
Zabit Magomedsharipov a Dagestan bad ass, one of the flashier strikers in the UFC with good ground game - but he ain't ready for the smoke "T city" Ortega is bringing ; on the feet or on the ground.
UFC 242 Sept 07
155lb Title Unification
Dustin Poirier +310
Khabib is my favorite fighter. This line is ridiculous- probabilities much closer.
I finally had a chance to sit down and watch the UFC summer press conference. Man, Khabib is the most savage, realest and most sincere individual in the fight game. Whatever comes out his mouth you can be sure it is from the heart - NO showmanship - just an elite grappler who knows men (and Bears) crumble under his pressure. 27-0
Poirier - also sincere and all heart - is going have to dig deep in that tool box when that cage door shuts and it's just him and that bad Dagastaini MF.
Not sure why UFC put a retiree against a killer like Simone. I will take a shot here, lean on experience and jiu jitsu in a decision win with the Dog.
Regardless if I think Faber could win or not, I personally thought this early number was off- the market hugely disagrees with me. I'm very high on Simone - but despite age - Faber is still a high-level Grappler and this will be a grappling match. Faber went to decision in May this year with the best young Grappler jiu jitsu as seen in the last 5 years. Apologies to anyone who tailed me on this early number - current is +300ish.
Costa outlands his opponents 9% on averaged - Yoel outlands opponents 13%, not counting his grappling or strength of schedule. Not giving too much thought on this one - just watching this man fight is enough for me.
Taking a shot here - both former Invicta champs - both finishers. Van Buren finished 5 of her 8 wins, Souza finished 10 of 13. Odds makers thinking they will wrestle fuck each other for 3 rds- which is possible.
Ryan "the Wizard" Hall -108 +1.00
* didn't expect the upgraded kicking game - scored 2 knocked downs - I expect he his using his kicks as bait begging opponents to catch them so they fall into his guard. Dude lives up to his Nickname, hard to cap.
Van Buren/Souza U2.5 +240 -1.00
*Van Buren almost/able to finish - lost but that was a bad #.
Josh Emmett- 100% knockdown rate at 145lbs - his confidence is back and the hesitation is gone from that visious KO and facial reconstruction. He will continue to be a problem in this weight class. Bad #.
Urijah Faber - speed and reaction time only slightly diminished - good footwork and timing. Power is the last thing to go ✔. I though the path was grappling, so I will concede a bit of variance. Still a bad #.
GdR - Muay Thai world champion Striker didn't let me down - too big of a step up for Ladd who was dealing with a bad weight cut. I'm hearing complaints of a early stoppage; probably saved that young girl's career. Bad #.
Young killer I believe is being underrated by the market after they threw him in cage with a old reinvented Lion in Cowboy.
Raquel "Rocky" Pennington +138
Huge step down for Rocky here - big step up for Irene Aldana. Rocky out landing her opponents by 9% on average while facing the baddest girls on planet - Irene only 1% against weaker opps. Only worry is Nunes broke her will and her face in their fight - but thats kinda what Nunes does to everyone.
Thurman +154
Kinda tailing Buckeyes here. I have been watching these odds for last few weeks. Pacman flipped to the favorite last weekend - Asian markets are very liquid and difficult to read along with Pac's notorious gambling habits. Thurman is clear value at this point.
I have had a few questions on my process for totals. Without saying a whole lot a good way to start figuring a 3 rd fight is obviously the implied probability the odds represent. Path to victory, strength of schedule, fighters historical fight styles, and stoppage %'s, along with the amount of time I am "buying" and the amount of time I am leaving on table - creating a number and comparing to available odds.
For a 5rd main or championship event when given a under 4.5 at EV or + money I do nothing - bet " blindly" I guess you can say. I am buying 22.5 minutes or 90% of the fight...and leaving 10% on the table. Not much figuring needed.
Felt like overall just bad reads on my part - didn't get to watch card, but didn't like the highlights that I saw. Bad nights happen, keeping losses to a minimum is key to longevity.
Thurman +154
Kinda tailing Buckeyes here. I have been watching these odds for last few weeks. Pacman flipped to the favorite last weekend - Asian markets are very liquid and difficult to read along with Pac's notorious gambling habits. Thurman is clear value at this point.
Comments
*wagered
Maia -166* -170 /blows my mind.
Formiga +147*+110
Maia/MartinU2.5 +125* +107
I hit Askren again at -208 early this morning - if they want to keep hanging it i will take it.
I don't see Jorge being able to keep this off the ground, and even a hurt Ben can demoralize a man on the Mat until he looks for a way out. I think he takes this 7or 8 times out of 10.
Askrin -204 ...yall already know what I'm doing.
Guess I didn't expect as much Jorge support, maybe I'm looking at this fight completely wrong, maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about. I project Askrin -265 so I'll take again.
Nunes/Holm U4.5 -122 (5dimes)
Tonight 1-1 (-1.16)
YTD 16-14 +4.98
Just wow - KO of the year against Askrin. Credit to Jorge with thinking outside the box and tape study...that shit was amazing.
- - - Updated - - -
Apologize for not seeing this sooner - with my perfect hindsight I would say NO lol. No really, I did study him early in week but age, size and grappling differential turned me off along with his really strange demeanor during the week.
I'm still SMH at that flying knee KO of Askrin. I said it the break down Jorge would have to scatter his brain when Ben level changes to win - he nuked his brain. I'm just hoping Ben dosent retire- his wrestling game is really special to watch. Last night it came out that the Flying Knee to start the fight was the game script - looking at line movement I wonder if some folks had that inside info.
Wager*/Close
Askrin -216*/-202
Nunes/Holm U4.5 -122*/ -170 (5Dimes)
Urijah Faber +241
Not sure why UFC put a retiree against a killer like Simone. I will take a shot here, lean on experience and jiu jitsu in a decision win with the Dog.
Germaine De Randamie +155
Josh Emmett +131
Ryan Hall -108
Young up and comer - submission specialist
Cezar Ferreira +132
Juan Adams -106
Brian Ortega +154
Zabit Magomedsharipov a Dagestan bad ass, one of the flashier strikers in the UFC with good ground game - but he ain't ready for the smoke "T city" Ortega is bringing ; on the feet or on the ground.
I finally had a chance to sit down and watch the UFC summer press conference. Man, Khabib is the most savage, realest and most sincere individual in the fight game. Whatever comes out his mouth you can be sure it is from the heart - NO showmanship - just an elite grappler who knows men (and Bears) crumble under his pressure. 27-0
Poirier - also sincere and all heart - is going have to dig deep in that tool box when that cage door shuts and it's just him and that bad Dagastaini MF.
Regardless if I think Faber could win or not, I personally thought this early number was off- the market hugely disagrees with me. I'm very high on Simone - but despite age - Faber is still a high-level Grappler and this will be a grappling match. Faber went to decision in May this year with the best young Grappler jiu jitsu as seen in the last 5 years. Apologies to anyone who tailed me on this early number - current is +300ish.
Yoel Romero -187
Costa outlands his opponents 9% on averaged - Yoel outlands opponents 13%, not counting his grappling or strength of schedule. Not giving too much thought on this one - just watching this man fight is enough for me.
Van Buren/Souza U2.5 +240 (5Dimes)
Taking a shot here - both former Invicta champs - both finishers. Van Buren finished 5 of her 8 wins, Souza finished 10 of 13. Odds makers thinking they will wrestle fuck each other for 3 rds- which is possible.
* didn't expect the upgraded kicking game - scored 2 knocked downs - I expect he his using his kicks as bait begging opponents to catch them so they fall into his guard. Dude lives up to his Nickname, hard to cap.
Van Buren/Souza U2.5 +240 -1.00
*Van Buren almost/able to finish - lost but that was a bad #.
1-1 ev so far tonight.
Based this off grappling and Cezar got out wrestled and out striked. Bad read on my part.
1-2 (-1.00) so far tonight.
Sometimes you get alot of market resistance - sometimes you win.
4-2 +4.27 all dogs barking
20-16 +9.25 ytd
Josh Emmett- 100% knockdown rate at 145lbs - his confidence is back and the hesitation is gone from that visious KO and facial reconstruction. He will continue to be a problem in this weight class. Bad #.
Urijah Faber - speed and reaction time only slightly diminished - good footwork and timing. Power is the last thing to go ✔. I though the path was grappling, so I will concede a bit of variance. Still a bad #.
GdR - Muay Thai world champion Striker didn't let me down - too big of a step up for Ladd who was dealing with a bad weight cut. I'm hearing complaints of a early stoppage; probably saved that young girl's career. Bad #.
Hope a few of you guys made some money tonight.
Alexander Hernandez -164
Young killer I believe is being underrated by the market after they threw him in cage with a old reinvented Lion in Cowboy.
Raquel "Rocky" Pennington +138
Huge step down for Rocky here - big step up for Irene Aldana. Rocky out landing her opponents by 9% on average while facing the baddest girls on planet - Irene only 1% against weaker opps. Only worry is Nunes broke her will and her face in their fight - but thats kinda what Nunes does to everyone.
Aleksei Oleinik +133
Hard read here - likey Alek takes Walt down and traps/subs him early. If not Alek will get slept.
Dos Anjo/Edwards u4½+142 (5dimes)
Thurman +154
Kinda tailing Buckeyes here. I have been watching these odds for last few weeks. Pacman flipped to the favorite last weekend - Asian markets are very liquid and difficult to read along with Pac's notorious gambling habits. Thurman is clear value at this point.
I have had a few questions on my process for totals. Without saying a whole lot a good way to start figuring a 3 rd fight is obviously the implied probability the odds represent. Path to victory, strength of schedule, fighters historical fight styles, and stoppage %'s, along with the amount of time I am "buying" and the amount of time I am leaving on table - creating a number and comparing to available odds.
For a 5rd main or championship event when given a under 4.5 at EV or + money I do nothing - bet " blindly" I guess you can say. I am buying 22.5 minutes or 90% of the fight...and leaving 10% on the table. Not much figuring needed.
2-3 (-.68)
Felt like overall just bad reads on my part - didn't get to watch card, but didn't like the highlights that I saw. Bad nights happen, keeping losses to a minimum is key to longevity.
UFC YTD 22-19 +8.57
Pro Boxing 1 pending.
YTD Pro Boxing 0-1 (-1.00)
YTD UFC 22-19 +8.57