Donald Cerrone +123
This will be another war on June 8th. I think Cerrone focus on his surgically repaired knee with visious Muay Thai kicks inside/out...stripping Ferguson of his explosivness and grinding out a decision victory.
Donald Cerrone( -1.00)
Unfortunate ending - Tony's pressure was overwhelming Cowboy; likey the same result after 3rds.
H. Cejudo +125
Henry is moving up a weight class so there are legitimate questions how he will handle power from a killer like Moraes - however Getting + money on current 125lb champion and Olympic gold medalist is value.
The 2nd Champ I'm wagering against from American Kickboxing Academy in as many weeks. Some thin Value on this line - may get better once public starts hammering fav late - maybe not. 1st fight DC(from my hometown) exposed Stipe's weakness breaking Clinch - rematch will be a very different affair. Great fight either way.
K. Holland/Di Chirico U2.5 +142
Think odds makers are underestimating Holland's finishing ability bc he likes to toy with opponents. Di Chirico slow but KO power also. I think Holland ends this by Sub/Tko.
Current line movement (Pinnicle) for Greenville
* wager
McCann +230* +210
Ewell -103* -115
Ige +129 +115
Holland U2.5 +142* +135
Limited movement - nothing major. Point is CLV in MMA is negligible in my few years hitting this small market consistently, IMO. I used to track religiously- only to have it destroyed start or mid way thru the card - bettors go on tilt, hitting all the favorites/parlays. Just my experience in this sport. Anyone else notice something similar or different?
Current line movement (Pinnicle) for Greenville
* wager
McCann +230* +210
Ewell -103* -115
Ige +129 +115
Holland U2.5 +142* +135
Limited movement - nothing major. Point is CLV in MMA is negligible in my few years hitting this small market consistently, IMO. I used to track religiously- only to have it destroyed start or mid way thru the card - bettors go on tilt, hitting all the favorites/parlays. Just my experience in this sport. Anyone else notice something similar or different?
I should have stated more clearly - the difference in CLV/Movement comparable to NFL/CFB, bases, Baskets.
K. Holland/Di Chirico U2.5 +142
Think odds makers are underestimating Holland's finishing ability bc he likes to toy with opponents. Di Chirico slow but KO power also. I think Holland ends this by Sub/Tko.
Odds makers had it right, I misjudged the pace and pressure.
I'm excited for Korean zombie fight. He studies and finds holes in guys game and adjust - underrated grappler. Makes a living biting down on mouth peice and throwing hands in pocket. His prime has past, and took a visious KO 7months ago at closing bell - he had the fight won. Renato Moicano tough and skilled and coming into his own as a fighter...im conflicted. Dog or pass. Don't wanna over shoot my position on a minor card so I will hold tight for now. Zombie +180 looks juicy.
I'm excited for Korean zombie fight. He studies and finds holes in guys game and adjust - underrated grappler. Makes a living biting down on mouth peice and throwing hands in pocket. His prime has past, and took a visious KO 7months ago at closing bell - he had the fight won. Renato Moicano tough and skilled and coming into his own as a fighter...im conflicted. Dog or pass. Don't wanna over shoot my position on a minor card so I will hold tight for now. Zombie +180 looks juicy.
" Korean Zombie" Jung +180
It's Time !!!
This one is not for the faint of heart. GL
UFC Greenville
Korean Zombie +1.80
Obviously a bit of variance in our favor with that quick finish - but like I commented ealier he is a student of the game and makes adjustments.
YTD 14 - 11 +7.14
High variance sport - good example was my last pick; clear path to victory established- but .58 seconds ? No capper can see that scenario playing out.
Best wrestler/ Grappler; who before March of this year never fought in the UFC. Undefeated One and Belator 170lb Champion. Jorge Masvidal has had a bit of resurgence in his long career, he will have to figure out to stop multipule chain wrestling take downs and try to scatter his brain with shots as he level changes. Otherwise it will be a literal Mauling on the mat.
Benavidez has power that must be respected in the 125lb div...but I think Formiga is better almost everywhere else. My #'s have this much closer than the 40% implied probability this line represents.
Alot of off lines on this card - heavy value with dogs, and you guys know I love my dogs. However; if I cannot ID a clear path to victory then value is negligible. GL
UFC Minneapolis
Demian Maia - I took a large position @ multipule #'s on Maia earlier in week - Arb'ed about 3/4 of position away yesterday - I still have a nice position and still like the fight - I also like free money - and Maia still 41y/o- and I still believe he is the Picasso of strangulation artist in MMA.
Maia/Martin U2.5 rds +125 (5Dimes)
Correlates to Maia path to Victory, some nice props aval to those who have access to them .
UFC Minneapolis
Demian Maia - I took a large position @ multipule #'s on Maia earlier in week - Arb'ed about 3/4 of position away yesterday - I still have a nice position and still like the fight - I also like free money - and Maia still 41y/o- and I still believe he is the Picasso of strangulation artist in MMA.
Maia/Martin U2.5 rds +125 (5Dimes)
Correlates to Maia path to Victory, some nice props aval to those who have access to them .
Watching Maia's odds and SMH. Not sure if i missed something -injury, illness etc or age...if it keeps moving and touch -150 i will probably add another unit on Maia. I have been buying/selling him all week but this movement Has me scratching my head.
My play on board here remains the same - just thinking out loud.
I agree with you on Maia.. he should be able to get Martin down as others without the pedigree of Maia has. Maybe people think his recent losses to stud wrestlers play a part in the line.
And that's what gases Maia and turns him into a zombie and loses- Elite Wrestlers. Martin got game and the right coaching/ preparation for this particular fight, but he ain't near elite.
I agree with you on Maia.. he should be able to get Martin down as others without the pedigree of Maia has. Maybe people think his recent losses to stud wrestlers play a part in the line.
And Martin better stick to the defensive wrestling ...getup/scramble ect. If he uses a jiu jitsu based ground defense he WILL get strangled during the first 2 takedowns.
Comments
155lb Title Unification
Dustin Poirier +310
Khabib is my favorite fighter. This line is ridiculous- probabilities much closer.
Aljamain Sterling +1.00
Great fight by both guys.
Donald Cerrone( -1.00)
Unfortunate ending - Tony's pressure was overwhelming Cowboy; likey the same result after 3rds.
+1.07
Champ Champ Cejudo +1.25
Tonight 3-1 +2.32
YTD 10-10 +1.75
Stipe Miocic +120 (5Dimes)
The 2nd Champ I'm wagering against from American Kickboxing Academy in as many weeks. Some thin Value on this line - may get better once public starts hammering fav late - maybe not. 1st fight DC(from my hometown) exposed Stipe's weakness breaking Clinch - rematch will be a very different affair. Great fight either way.
Prelims
Andre Ewell -103
Opening line had Ewell opened a big fav, now he is a short dog. Value on Ewell now.
Dan Ige +129
Good value
Going against the market on this also - line out of control. I see this going to scorecards; I'll take the Dog here.
K. Holland/Di Chirico U2.5 +142
Think odds makers are underestimating Holland's finishing ability bc he likes to toy with opponents. Di Chirico slow but KO power also. I think Holland ends this by Sub/Tko.
* wager
McCann +230* +210
Ewell -103* -115
Ige +129 +115
Holland U2.5 +142* +135
Limited movement - nothing major. Point is CLV in MMA is negligible in my few years hitting this small market consistently, IMO. I used to track religiously- only to have it destroyed start or mid way thru the card - bettors go on tilt, hitting all the favorites/parlays. Just my experience in this sport. Anyone else notice something similar or different?
- - - Updated - - -
I should have stated more clearly - the difference in CLV/Movement comparable to NFL/CFB, bases, Baskets.
Easy...tough British C*nt.
Ige +1.29
Good fight... Aguilar stock went up with that loss IMO. Played out how I expected.
2-0 + 3.59 so far.
2-1 +2.59
Hands too much for the jiu jitsu specialist.
3-1 +3.59
" Korean Zombie" Jung +180
It's Time !!!
This one is not for the faint of heart. GL
Korean Zombie +1.80
Obviously a bit of variance in our favor with that quick finish - but like I commented ealier he is a student of the game and makes adjustments.
Tonight 4-1 +5.39
High variance sport - good example was my last pick; clear path to victory established- but .58 seconds ? No capper can see that scenario playing out.
Demian Maia -166
Past his prime, but servicible enough on feet to stay safe - and a teir 1 Strangle Artist on ground.
Maia line moved quickly - I'm not a fan of laying # with older fighters but with his pedigree and resume' I think the fair line is -190ish IMO.
Ben "Funky" Askren -216
Best wrestler/ Grappler; who before March of this year never fought in the UFC. Undefeated One and Belator 170lb Champion. Jorge Masvidal has had a bit of resurgence in his long career, he will have to figure out to stop multipule chain wrestling take downs and try to scatter his brain with shots as he level changes. Otherwise it will be a literal Mauling on the mat.
Jussier Formiga +147
Benavidez has power that must be respected in the 125lb div...but I think Formiga is better almost everywhere else. My #'s have this much closer than the 40% implied probability this line represents.
Alot of off lines on this card - heavy value with dogs, and you guys know I love my dogs. However; if I cannot ID a clear path to victory then value is negligible. GL
Demian Maia - I took a large position @ multipule #'s on Maia earlier in week - Arb'ed about 3/4 of position away yesterday - I still have a nice position and still like the fight - I also like free money - and Maia still 41y/o- and I still believe he is the Picasso of strangulation artist in MMA.
Maia/Martin U2.5 rds +125 (5Dimes)
Correlates to Maia path to Victory, some nice props aval to those who have access to them .
Watching Maia's odds and SMH. Not sure if i missed something -injury, illness etc or age...if it keeps moving and touch -150 i will probably add another unit on Maia. I have been buying/selling him all week but this movement Has me scratching my head.
My play on board here remains the same - just thinking out loud.
And Martin better stick to the defensive wrestling ...getup/scramble ect. If he uses a jiu jitsu based ground defense he WILL get strangled during the first 2 takedowns.
1-2 (-1.00)
YTD 15-13 +6.14
My totals have been shit lately - Rocco improved ground game.