They absolutely correlate. I think what you mean is there is not a perfect correlation. And, of course there isn't. There will always be some noise present, as well as other factors not captured by CLV that predict success. I still think CLV is the best and largest indicator, though.
not even a close relation, I mean they are hard to see, I think the CLV game is more for the house who does thousands upon thousands of bets and then it comes back to that number, not really sure but I mean the true measure of success is huge quantity but in a limited arena, I say more importantly than a CLV % is the better than a coin toss over a large number of bets. I think I would rather have 8 out of 10 games the line went my way than overall +CLV on 10 games. I think the best indicator of sucess besides 1000000 results is getting close to 8 out of 10 games the line moves in your direction. I mean because PInnacle who I assume has a pretty decent model cant even get close to the closing line. I think if you choose the Yankees at 150 and they close at 130 on average 8 out of 10 times you will do a lot better than a guy who bets the yankees 10 times and 9 go against him by 1% and 1 goes all the way his way for 15%
here is an example of how I think CLV is deceptive a perfect example
Date Starter Team My guess Bet at CLV curent odds
5/2 Danny Duffy Royals 135 178 -0.36% 173
5/2 Luis Severino Yankees-119 112 6.97% -123
5/2 Dylan Bundy Orioles 105 123 -3.13% 134
Here I did good on 1 game and it looks like my CLV is +1.16% avg but in reality this to me is an OK at best day because 2 out of 3 are going my direction but one good thing is the good clv weight is on the highest bet
look at this mets line opened at -180 at pinny ....now look at it ...baseball lines are crazy ....and nothing for nothing if the mets got down to -140 it would be a play for me.
I got the Degrom game at -178 and I am still lost in space on the ORioles, one day I am perfect on the line and the other 4 days I am off by 30 cents, I dont get it
Model Record
21-28 42.86% avg line 48.85%
Units -5.48
CLV 0% I have played nearly 50 games and have not moved one cent in the right direction, I am just paying the house!
SDQL Record
1-0 100%
Units +1
CLV who cares this wins without value everyday!
My mistake Dodgers are not actually away so that line is not true I forgot about the Mexico series so I will cancel out the Dodgers with
Padres +184 .54for1
i dont care what your line is on the sox but you shouldnt be laying that kind of money ....
its my stupid sdql play, the way it supposedly works is
since 2008 win % is 67.7% and the and the line is 65.03% so overall should be a winner, it has zero to do with my model plays
I personally have not seen +EV on any of these bets and they rarely move in my direction for example today I got the Rangers at +174 so if I was betting model wise on this I would take the Rangers
So you wouldnt lay those odds even if you knew the play to be +ev? Classic
I was just trying to help him out , you better have a pretty good read on the game if you are laying that.
Personally ,not very often,I will have many ,many other plays at less risk, and if i did, id go to step 2 and split the bet, lay some on money line and lay the 1.5 runs
I was just trying to help him out , you better have a pretty good read on the game if you are laying that.
Personally ,not very often,I will have many ,many other plays at less risk, and if i did, id go to step 2 and split the bet, lay some on money line and lay the 1.5 runs
Correct me if I'm wrong but the point buckeyes is making is if you believe in your line and you make Sale -315 (Like I did) there's nothing wrong with betting him at -230. I don't lay that price very often if at all but I wouldn't tell people that they're wrong if that feel the -230 has value. I agree a steady diet of $2+ favorites just because they're suppose to win is not a winning formula but you see a game like Boston today with Sale and it's moving into the -250 range you really don't think that's public money do you. The public will possibly play the RL or parlay it.
I think jets advice is solid, I think people can think they are killing it because they hit a couple -250s in a row and they dont understand that eventually those teams do lose and they will lose at least margin over time. -250 picks make people think or look like they know what they are doing but in reality they are the same as any other bet just beat the margin and you will survive.
Line -220 is 255-123 -1.9% with and -4% against
Line -120 1329-1187 -3.2 with and -1% against
Line -165 671-408 -.1% with and -3.6% against
line -300 62-14 8.8% for -35.8% against BUT not enough games
but yeah it seems like the line dont matter its all about the margin but like Old man said betting -2s blind will cost you the margin but it will seem like you are doing better cause you win more times!
ot am with you , BUT you can put any number you want on it ...i have a limit , my limit on the red sox is -190 , anything above that, there is more risk then reward.
Danshan is learning ,I just didn't want him to fall into the trap of starting to think he was going to win long term betting two to one or more.
Danshan , its old timer not old man , give the man the respect he deserves. And i like you numbers brother
Oh Jets I meant no disrespect, it was just a little poke for "old times" sake pun intended, guy is mean to me but I should be the bigger guy. I do apologize old timer and it really was meant lighthearted, sorry if it offended you!
Oh Jets I meant no disrespect, it was just a little poke for "old times" sake pun intended, guy is mean to me but I should be the bigger guy. I do apologize old timer and it really was meant lighthearted, sorry if it offended you!
No worries ,u have to have thick skin in this bizx
Comments
I wish people that know would chime in on what they think and how they think it works because it seems very arty and less sciencey
5/3 Julio Teheran Jason Vargas Mets 100 9
5/3 Alex Wood Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks -113 7
5/3 Masahiro Tanaka Lance McCullers Astros -130 8
5/3 Mike Fiers Eric Skoglund Royals 120 8
5/3 Jaime Garcia Carlos Carrasco Indians -213 8
Date Starter Team My guess Bet at CLV curent odds
5/2 Danny Duffy Royals 135 178 -0.36% 173
5/2 Luis Severino Yankees-119 112 6.97% -123
5/2 Dylan Bundy Orioles 105 123 -3.13% 134
Here I did good on 1 game and it looks like my CLV is +1.16% avg but in reality this to me is an OK at best day because 2 out of 3 are going my direction but one good thing is the good clv weight is on the highest bet
Tigers +106 .94for1
Pirates +122 .82for1
21-28 42.86% avg line 48.85%
Units -5.48
CLV 0% I have played nearly 50 games and have not moved one cent in the right direction, I am just paying the house!
SDQL Record
1-0 100%
Units +1
CLV who cares this wins without value everyday!
Cardinals -106 1.06for1
SDQL Play
Astros -189 1.89for1
22-28 42.86% avg line 48.90%
Units -4.48
CLV 0.03%
SDQL Record
2-0 100% Avg. 65.69%
Units +2
CLV -.54%
Reds -119 1.19for1
Rays -105 1.05for1
Red Sox -144 1.44for1
SDQL Pick
Dodgers -197 1.97for1
Padres +184 .54for1
24-29 45.28% avg line 49.24%
Units -3.67
CLV 0.02%
SDQL Record
3-1 75%
Units +1.03
CLV -.33%
Red Sox -230 2.3for1
Brewers -120 1.2 for 1
Phillies +185 .55for 1
its my stupid sdql play, the way it supposedly works is
since 2008 win % is 67.7% and the and the line is 65.03% so overall should be a winner, it has zero to do with my model plays
So you wouldnt lay those odds even if you knew the play to be +ev? Classic
I was just trying to help him out , you better have a pretty good read on the game if you are laying that.
Personally ,not very often,I will have many ,many other plays at less risk, and if i did, id go to step 2 and split the bet, lay some on money line and lay the 1.5 runs
Correct me if I'm wrong but the point buckeyes is making is if you believe in your line and you make Sale -315 (Like I did) there's nothing wrong with betting him at -230. I don't lay that price very often if at all but I wouldn't tell people that they're wrong if that feel the -230 has value. I agree a steady diet of $2+ favorites just because they're suppose to win is not a winning formula but you see a game like Boston today with Sale and it's moving into the -250 range you really don't think that's public money do you. The public will possibly play the RL or parlay it.
Line -120 1329-1187 -3.2 with and -1% against
Line -165 671-408 -.1% with and -3.6% against
line -300 62-14 8.8% for -35.8% against BUT not enough games
but yeah it seems like the line dont matter its all about the margin but like Old man said betting -2s blind will cost you the margin but it will seem like you are doing better cause you win more times!
Danshan is learning ,I just didn't want him to fall into the trap of starting to think he was going to win long term betting two to one or more.
Danshan , its old timer not old man , give the man the respect he deserves. And i like you numbers brother
No worries ,u have to have thick skin in this bizx