estimating CLV is questionable and nearly as questionable as win loss ratio, I mean conceivably a person could just be lucky with CLV just like wins and losses.
estimating CLV is questionable and nearly as questionable as win loss ratio, I mean conceivably a person could just be lucky with CLV just like wins and losses.
Yes. But it is much less likely with CLV. With 100 bets, your CLV will give you a much better indication of your future success than your actual results. As always, more information is always better.
I understand and in general agree but I dont see how it is any less likely. How do you mean it is less likely? I mean the line can go up down or stay the same just like win loss and tie I mean not mlb but you know what i mean.
A coinflip is a random event. The betting market as a whole is highly skillful so it gives a fairly accurate representation of your skill even in the short term because the line movement is highly accurate.
I think now this might sound crazy but I think the highest way to measure skill is closeness to the line over anything else
examples
1st guy tells me bet the Dodgers Kershaw is the greatest ever and Turner is the best bat in baseball, Dodgers win I think LUCKY or look at it -360 come on that is not skill
2nd guy tells me Dodgers are a good bet at -340 and later when it closes they are -360 I am like guy MIGHT know something
3rd guy tells me take a look at the Dodger game later today if its less than -340 bet it because it will close at -361 and it opens at -344 and it closes at -360, I myself say this guy PROBABLY knows WTF he is talking about
would you agree?
I think now this might sound crazy but I think the highest way to measure skill is closeness to the line over anything else
examples
1st guy tells me bet the Dodgers Kershaw is the greatest ever and Turner is the best bat in baseball, Dodgers win I think LUCKY or look at it -360 come on that is not skill
2nd guy tells me Dodgers are a good bet at -340 and later when it closes they are -360 I am like guy MIGHT know something
3rd guy tells me take a look at the Dodger game later today if its less than -340 bet it because it will close at -361 and it opens at -344 and it closes at -360, I myself say this guy PROBABLY knows WTF he is talking about
would you agree?
Yes. But you want to be better than the line. It does no go to be same as. So you need CLV.
You are getting yourself confused again. Yes, if you have the same numbers as the line, you are setting good numbers. That's pretty good. But you need to clobber the line. You've got to be WAY better than good.
Your premise is right. If you have the same numbers as the line that closes, you will have great numbers. Because the market is basically better than everyone which is why CLV has value. But if your numbers are as good as the market, you will have CLV on your bets.
You are obviously a very smart guy danshan. Your problem is that you dove straight off into the deep end of the pool so you did not have a foundation of knowledge with your gambling. You did not learn all the stuff most people learn along the way as they build up their knowledge, You started straight into the hardest stuff without really understanding any of the basics.
when you say clobber the line what i think you mean is this
I bet the rays -141 and they close at -165 that to me is crushing the line
and this is how I try and do that
I guess at what line I think it will close at
I guess -160 and if it is more than margin between available odds and my guess I bet
so in this scenario I think it will close at -160 so I will bet it if it is under -153
does that make sense and do you think that is a sound strategy?
You are obviously a very smart guy danshan. Your problem is that you dove straight off into the deep end of the pool so you did not have a foundation of knowledge with your gambling. You did not learn all the stuff most people learn along the way as they build up their knowledge, You started straight into the hardest stuff without really understanding any of the basics.
that is my MO in everything I do and 99.99% of things dont work but I truly enjoy the ride and love the challenges!
when you say clobber the line what i think you mean is this
I bet the rays -141 and they close at -165 that to me is crushing the line
and this is how I try and do that
I guess at what line I think it will close at
I guess -160 and if it is more than margin between available odds and my guess I bet
so in this scenario I think it will close at -160 so I will bet it if it is under -153
does that make sense and do you think that is a sound strategy?
Right. That is the idea. If you have good numbers, you will beat the number on your bets more times than not because you are recognizing value before the market does or before the most skillful are able to take advantage. That is the key to gambling.
that is my MO in everything I do and 99.99% of things dont work but I truly enjoy the ride and love the challenges!
That is what it is all about. The people that are successful gambling do not do it for the money. They do it for the challenge. The losers all think they are gambling for money which is why they have no control.
I love it my passion, energy and focus on the line is crazy, trust me crazy, my friends say "dude we do do other things!". Anyway so now all I have to do is figure out how to stake, I am still 10000% lost on accurately calculating CLV using a fixed profit betting method. I dont see how you can calculate CLV on each bet but not on dollar amount, that to me does not add up
I love it my passion, energy and focus on the line is crazy, trust me crazy, my friends say "dude we do do other things!". Anyway so now all I have to do is figure out how to stake, I am still 10000% lost on accurately calculating CLV using a fixed profit betting method. I dont see how you can calculate CLV on each bet but not on dollar amount, that to me does not add up
Now danshan, the negative side to being a successful gambler is that there are no normal successful gambers. They are all screwed up.
That is what it is all about. The people that are successful gambling do not do it for the money. They do it for the challenge. The losers all think they are gambling for money which is why they have no control.
"You ignorant punk. I play for money. I owe rent. Child support." -Joey Knish, Rounders
Joking aside, I do it for the money, not the challenge. It's like any other job.
"You ignorant punk. I play for money. I owe rent. Child support." -Joey Knish, Rounders
Joking aside, I do it for the money, not the challenge. It's just work
You do it for money in the end because you wind up making it. But that is not what attracted you or keeps you at it. Ultimately you have to keep doing it.
You do it for money in the end because you wind up making it. But that is not what attracted you or keeps you at it. Ultimately you have to keep doing it.
That sure as hell was what attracted me and keeps me at it. I don't need challenges, I just need to pay my bills.
Nothing personal, but I cannot stand generalizations like that. There are very few absolutes in life.
my biggest attraction is knowing some shit MOST people dont. I think its funny when i hear someone in the sportsbook say, man Lebron is on fire right now they will cover -12 NO PROBLEM, LOL that use to be me!
That sure as hell was what attracted me and keeps me at it. I don't need challenges, I just need to pay my bills.
Nothing personal, but I cannot stand generalizations like that. There are very few absolutes in life.
Gambling is all ego. That is why it is all males. Nobody sits down and makes a computer model for betting because they are looking to make money. They want to see if they can make money. They are interested in the challenge.
The real point though is that the average degen has to bet certain dollar amounts because they think they are betting for money when in fact they are betting for the rush. The $$$ creates the rush. They really just want to win by beating the line. They would be just as happy winning $50 as $250 but are conditioned to bet $250 and can never bet less because they can never get even.
R40, you can keep generalizing all you want, I have nothing to gain from responding after this.
FWIW, I have no ego, I judge no one unless they're harming others, I don't make generalizations, and I don't even try to guess/assume other people's thoughts or motivations. I could easily be an outlier (in fact, I think it's pretty likely).
Clearly you disagree with some of that and that's perfectly fine by me.
Comments
Yes. But it is much less likely with CLV. With 100 bets, your CLV will give you a much better indication of your future success than your actual results. As always, more information is always better.
examples
1st guy tells me bet the Dodgers Kershaw is the greatest ever and Turner is the best bat in baseball, Dodgers win I think LUCKY or look at it -360 come on that is not skill
2nd guy tells me Dodgers are a good bet at -340 and later when it closes they are -360 I am like guy MIGHT know something
3rd guy tells me take a look at the Dodger game later today if its less than -340 bet it because it will close at -361 and it opens at -344 and it closes at -360, I myself say this guy PROBABLY knows WTF he is talking about
would you agree?
Yes. But you want to be better than the line. It does no go to be same as. So you need CLV.
This I know.
I bet the rays -141 and they close at -165 that to me is crushing the line
and this is how I try and do that
I guess at what line I think it will close at
I guess -160 and if it is more than margin between available odds and my guess I bet
so in this scenario I think it will close at -160 so I will bet it if it is under -153
does that make sense and do you think that is a sound strategy?
that is my MO in everything I do and 99.99% of things dont work but I truly enjoy the ride and love the challenges!
Right. That is the idea. If you have good numbers, you will beat the number on your bets more times than not because you are recognizing value before the market does or before the most skillful are able to take advantage. That is the key to gambling.
That is what it is all about. The people that are successful gambling do not do it for the money. They do it for the challenge. The losers all think they are gambling for money which is why they have no control.
Now danshan, the negative side to being a successful gambler is that there are no normal successful gambers. They are all screwed up.
shit then I am destined for success, nobody is more screwed up!
Yeah. I see your potential.
"You ignorant punk. I play for money. I owe rent. Child support." -Joey Knish, Rounders
Joking aside, I do it for the money, not the challenge. It's like any other job.
You do it for money in the end because you wind up making it. But that is not what attracted you or keeps you at it. Ultimately you have to keep doing it.
That sure as hell was what attracted me and keeps me at it. I don't need challenges, I just need to pay my bills.
Nothing personal, but I cannot stand generalizations like that. There are very few absolutes in life.
Gambling is all ego. That is why it is all males. Nobody sits down and makes a computer model for betting because they are looking to make money. They want to see if they can make money. They are interested in the challenge.
The real point though is that the average degen has to bet certain dollar amounts because they think they are betting for money when in fact they are betting for the rush. The $$$ creates the rush. They really just want to win by beating the line. They would be just as happy winning $50 as $250 but are conditioned to bet $250 and can never bet less because they can never get even.
I got them at -140 I have no idea what happened? anyone know somethign I am missing
FWIW, I have no ego, I judge no one unless they're harming others, I don't make generalizations, and I don't even try to guess/assume other people's thoughts or motivations. I could easily be an outlier (in fact, I think it's pretty likely).
Clearly you disagree with some of that and that's perfectly fine by me.
Are we trying to set a record for how many people can tell me what's in my head in one thread?
I'm not being humble, I'm being honest.