lol no worries brother ,have no problem with anything your doing , just was wondering like goats did and am sure others why you replaced a selection...
luck going forward
Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.
on same day I dont see much of anything being positive EV, it is tougher than I thought, I think my big mouth wrote a check my skills cant cash!. But I will keep trying and I flat ass know it will improve!!!!
Dodgers (Ryu) -123 1.23for1 got it at -166
Indians (Tomlin) -180 1.8for1 got it at -270
I am not sure I am close on the line when it comes out but it seems like by morning I am like way way way off on a few games, most games I am very close and the few that are off are way off and are pulling farther off! LOTS OF WORK TO BE DONE!
Can anyone peak at my lines for tomorrow and tell me what you think, I need the help!
4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121 TOO CHEAP
4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185 TOO HIGH
4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105
4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104 Kidding right? TOO CHEAP
4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206 TOO HIGH
4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118 WRONG CHALK
4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109 WRONG CHALK
4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190
4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118 WRONG CHALK
4/11 David Price Red Sox -117
4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179
any help, comments or suggestions on these would be awesome, thanks in advamce!
For a guy that's knowledgeable in currency and commodities are you jerking us all off? Last Tango.........
I am not sure what you mean by "jerking us off"?
and I have no idea about currencies and commodities any better than the next currency loser, who loses to the margin!
thanks for the replies on the lines, I think since the BOL openers come out they look pretty good to me! you think they should be much closer than this?
as of right now still waiting on bookmaker that makes some sig changes
4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121 TOO CHEAP 6 cents off
4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185 TOO HIGH 12 cents off
4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105 10 cents off
4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104 Kidding right? TOO CHEAP 12 cents off
4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206 TOO HIGH 11 cents off
4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118 WRONG CHALK stupid on my part Astros are literally in space still
4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109 WRONG CHALK 11 cents off
4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190 should not be on here this game is dumb too
4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118 WRONG CHALK 8 cents off
4/11 David Price Red Sox -117 12 cents off
4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179 11 cents off
I know these are just openers comparing to my guesses of what I think the close should be but I think they are very darn close, you mean you guys are closer than this? how close should I be????
I like that you take dogs and short favorites and even though you said you would lay big numbers if you had an advantage , which i disagree with but whatever, dont fall into the trap of betting them, your not going to come out ahead in the long run.
you can see that first hand looking at some of the picks guys are posting , they will be long gone come sept.
thanks for the advice it really helps, my big issue is I am getting very close to closing on most games and the games I am wrong on are going against and not with me!
Comments
luck going forward
on same day I dont see much of anything being positive EV, it is tougher than I thought, I think my big mouth wrote a check my skills cant cash!. But I will keep trying and I flat ass know it will improve!!!!
I hope it helps
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zCiKo7oAMQEmwnsfZxNZJZDBfg4xNctC1Q3IoMKvvkU/edit?usp=sharing
it has the 1 unit calculator too so you know how many units to put on your dogs if you are doing the fixed profit way!
Marlins Urena +197 .51 for 1
Indians (Tomlin) -180 1.8for1 got it at -270
I am not sure I am close on the line when it comes out but it seems like by morning I am like way way way off on a few games, most games I am very close and the few that are off are way off and are pulling farther off! LOTS OF WORK TO BE DONE!
4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121
4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185
4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105
4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104
4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206
4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118
4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109
4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190
4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118
4/11 David Price Red Sox -117
4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179
any help, comments or suggestions on these would be awesome, thanks in advamce!
I am not sure what you mean by "jerking us off"?
and I have no idea about currencies and commodities any better than the next currency loser, who loses to the margin!
4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121 TOO CHEAP 6 cents off
4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185 TOO HIGH 12 cents off
4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105 10 cents off
4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104 Kidding right? TOO CHEAP 12 cents off
4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206 TOO HIGH 11 cents off
4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118 WRONG CHALK stupid on my part Astros are literally in space still
4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109 WRONG CHALK 11 cents off
4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190 should not be on here this game is dumb too
4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118 WRONG CHALK 8 cents off
4/11 David Price Red Sox -117 12 cents off
4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179 11 cents off
I know these are just openers comparing to my guesses of what I think the close should be but I think they are very darn close, you mean you guys are closer than this? how close should I be????
No I don't think so--I'm closer on some, off more on others, as expected
do you see a particular spot I am weak in, barely faves, big dogs, anything?
W-L 5-6
Units -1.22
CLV .22%
Tigers +244 .41for1
Reds +109 .91for1
Rockies -147 1.47for1
W-L 6-8
Unit Count -1.54
CLV .42%
and how long have you been using that model and how has that model performed?
Mariners +107
you can see that first hand looking at some of the picks guys are posting , they will be long gone come sept.
W-L 8-8
Unit Count .45
CLV .04%
W-L 8-9
Units -.25
CLV .01%
Mariners +109
yeah but only way I am beating the lines is the overnights, this same day thing is killing my CLV!