Betting Talk

Is Bill Krackomberger legit?

13

Comments

  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited September 2017
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017

    Actually ESPN pays them for content lol. I was told those guys are under contract for the individual season. ESPN doesn't give two shits if they promote a fraud. A couple years ago they had that DFS "expert" who they claimed won 93% of her contests and they didn't bat an eyelash about promoting that obvious nonsense, so Warren's "I pick 60%" probably sounds realistic in comparison.
  • mutinycapmutinycap Member
    edited September 2017
    Krack's new tout website is a good laugh.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    mutinycap wrote: »
    Krack's new tout website is a good laugh.


    Yeah I didn't have time to read it in detail earlier but it's a hoot. "I've always liked to help people learn, let me teach you by showing you what I bet for $649 a month." And the idea of selling props with your tout package as he's doing is straight out of PhillyGodfather's playbook. PhillyGodfather knows all the biggest prop syndicates!

    Back to Warren Sharp -- I can't post his plays this week yet as one play is on tomorrow night's game, but I can summarize. There were 3 full game sides, a full game total, a teaser, and 3 first half totals. The most obvious thing is we can drop the charade that his releases move lines as some shill was claiming on this forum a while back. Only one play moved shortly after he released on Pinny (PHI ov48 released at 9:48AM Pacific today) and since that was 3 hours before game time, that could have been a coincidence since lines move a lot at that time. Two of his first half totals he released a day before Pinny even had a line up, and neither of those moved.

    Every release but that Eagles play was graded at a line better than Pinny, in some cases significantly better. Only one play included associated odds (SEA +3 -120, released when Pinny had +2.5 -107), and if the implication is that all releases without odds are -110, his teaser on NE -1/LAC +10.5 was implied to be -110. In a previous thread, someone mentioned he grades 7 point teasers at -110 which is pretty ridiculous considering the widely available price at books that don't block teasers is -140.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Back to Warren Sharp -- I can't post his plays this week yet as one play is on tomorrow night's game, but I can summarize. There were 3 full game sides, a full game total, a teaser, and 3 first half totals. The most obvious thing is we can drop the charade that his releases move lines as some shill was claiming on this forum a while back. Only one play moved shortly after he released on Pinny (PHI ov48 released at 9:48AM Pacific today)

    Correction, that was 9:48AM Eastern. And as I am being sent these plays by someone else it's possible I missed one or two. When I'm able I will share a sheet showing the claimed line at release, Pinny's line at release, and Pinny's close.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Someone pointed out that Warren now lists his "recent plays" here: http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/records.php

    Well, we aren't even done week 1 yet and we're off to a bad start. He claims:

    At Sharp Football Analysis, my number one goal is winning for my clients. Keeping accurate and honest records is the only way to prove that. When you have a solid track record of covering NFL point spreads, you want to share that record. Win or lose. Every handicapper deals with variance. But only truly reliable services will have high long term win percentages. How many handicapping sites have you have visited that display no records at all? Or only records sharing their latest "streak"? At Sharp Football Analysis, there is nothing to hide, and in an otherwise secretive industry, our accurate and honest record keeping is a breath of fresh air.

    This season, you will see each and every play I give to clients appear in the ledger just minutes after the game's kickoff. This self-monitoring is completely transparent.There will be no need for shady monitoring services pumping up records in exchange for money. Very few of the so-called "best handicappers" out there are willing to track this information, because there is no way to hide their losses.


    Two of his plays are missing from his record, SEA +3 -120 and his NE -1 / LAC +10.5 7 point teaser that was released without associated odds. Mistakes happen, but it doesn't bode well when that's 2 mistakes out of 8 plays, both are losers, and in the previous Warren Sharp threads, multiple people mentioned that he erases losing plays. (The one specific example I believe involved Super Bowl props where he lost his ass on props but won a side/total teaser (LOL) and he advertised that the teaser won.)

    Quite frankly, 59% is a pretty shitty record when you're able to delete 2 losers for every 8 picks you release!
  • gobucks2gobucks2 Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    His website looks like one of those geocities pages an eighth grader would have made in 2003
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Reading Warren's "past records" page requires plowing through an amazing amount of BS -- displaying "past records" should be as simple as showing each sport season record, then a link to the season showing the individual picks, the same way RAS, DrH, and Procap do it, and the same way SSB used to do it -- yet on his page you have to read through a ton of BS to find what he claims are his actual records.

    I didn't read the entire "records page" yet, but one amusing thing that jumped out at me is that the "60% over the last 11 years on totals" he and Krackman are advertising for Warren's service includes 278 "over leans" that won 59%. "Leans," along with "free plays," are one of the standard tout freerolls, count them if they win and ignore them if they lose. In another place on the page, he lists 2010 season highlights - 16 strongest valued Overs went 16-0 (100%). Some were "Overs Plays", some were "Overs Leans" So first they were leans, but after they allegedly went undefeated, they now become part of his "strongest valued plays."

    Warren reported he was up all night updating his website, but I guess the small matter of two losing picks missing from his record isn't a priority.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    I've been telling people this for years, the guy is an absolute fraud. Deleting games, fake lines, cheating on juice, tons of types of plays so that he can always market whatever is hot, leans, etc. He's got the whole package and he's actually really good at deceiving people. He's somehow convinced many he's honest and transparent, but he's nothing more than a con artist. TY groovin for documenting some of that stuff.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    This quote from krackman is extremely concerning:

    On knowing when to pull up on bets for the baseball season rather than throw good money after bad

    “I like to be in the kind of thing where I’m winning easily and when I lose, I just get nipped. So when its “Over 9″ and it lands on 8, I say “OK”, I know there were a lot of runs and hits and men on base. But I didn’t see that right now with our bets…. so I know its time to pull up.”


    That was from 2013, so I suppose it's possible he's grown since then, but that shows a complete lack of understanding of variance and line value.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    He's also claiming 25 years of expertise, so even if he has improved since 2013, he's still using utterly square logic like the above after "21 years of expertise" which doesn't really bode well for all the people singing his praises as some sort of sharp.

    If he's betting over 9 -110 and has an absolutely enormous edge, say an EV of 8 or 9%, the fair line is maybe 9.7 or 9.8, so how in the world is he supposed to be able to tell he's making good bets because they're winning easily when the edges are that thin?

    The above quote also shows a terrible misunderstanding of baseball statistics. If the teams had a lot of men on base because of
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    My last post got cut off, I was saying something like, if a team had a lot of runners on base because of a high BABIP, that doesn't really mean you "handicapped the game well," but that's kind of secondary to the point that trying to evaluate baseball bets based on a small sample of results is pretty LOL in the first place.
  • Octan21Octan21 Member
    edited September 2017
    Well done Groovin and Doc. I guess another smelly turd gets exposed.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    The only Sharp(Shuappe) I knew was Chuck . Former boxing Olympian and IMO the best NBA totals guy ever. His arsenal included stopwatches and "maybe" some 'in' with the timekeepers. No knowledge of Warren Sharp.

    Krackman a handicapper? Dunno. I'm not familiar with any tout stuff. I will tell you he's an honorable guy in the gambling arena with access to some of the best lowkey talent in the betting biz.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    I never thought I'd find a supposedly honest tout who made RJ Bell's record keeping look transparent, but it looks like I've found one. When the LAC/DEN game kicked off, his NE/LAC teaser finally showed up in his record (I guess he puts them in when the second leg kicks off, which isn't transparent in terms of displaying the first leg obviously), as did his LAC/DEN 1h under 21.5, which he released before Pinny even had a line out.
    At that point he had all his play displayed but the SEA +3 -120. Then a few hours later, around 11pm Pacific, I noticed the teaser and the OAK over disappeared and the remaining 6 plays were still listed as "pending." Then when I checked this morning at 10am Pacific, he'd deleted all the plays.

    I will be tracking his plays as long as they're sent to me, tracking his claimed line, Pinny's actual line, and Pinny's no vig close. The paste below probably won't display well but I'll figure out a way to upload it publicly, probably a Google doc file.
    Date Time Type Play Claimed line Claimed odds Units Pinny line Pinny odds Pinny no vig close Results
    09/07/17 04:41:00 PM personal plays JAX 6 1 5.5 -111 5.5 100 W
    09/07/17 04:47:00 PM teaser NE/LAC +7, -1, +10.5 1 L
    09/07/17 04:55:00 PM personal plays ARI -1.5 1 -2 -109 -2.5 111 L
    09/08/17 08:47:00 PM personal plays CIN 1h un 21 0.5 CRIS 21 -119 20.5 -114 W
    09/08/17 08:49:00 PM personal plays DEN 1h un 21.5 0.5 CRIS 21.5 -115 21 -137 W
    09/09/17 07:54:00 PM personal plays DAL 1h un 24 0.5 24 -116 23 -104 W
    09/10/17 09:48:00 AM personal plays PHI ov 48 1 48 -105 49.5 105 L
    09/10/17 11:44:00 AM SEA 3 -120 1 2.5 -107 2.5 105 L
    09/10/17 12:31:00 PM OAK ov 49.5 0.75 49.5 -111 49.5 -106 L
  • EscootEscoot Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    This season, you will see each and every play I give to clients appear in the ledger just minutes after the game's kickoff. This self-monitoring is completely transparent.

    So the plays were eventually posted and then taken down and still have not re-appeared?
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Escoot wrote: »
    So the plays were eventually posted and then taken down and still have not re-appeared?

    His SEA +3 -120 was never posted that I saw. The other plays were all eventually posted and then taken down and still have not re-appeared, yes.

    From what I was told, he apparently is inconsistent with when he updates his actual record and he regularly takes the plays down after he grades them. If he is taking plays down as early as 10am Pacific on Tuesday when games didn't even finish until 1030pm Pacific the night before, that would kind of be the opposite of the "complete transparency" he claims.
  • mutinycapmutinycap Member
    edited September 2017
    And ESPN remains 0 for lifetime on gambling content.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    mutinycap wrote: »
    And ESPN remains 0 for lifetime on gambling content.

    I actually once spoke to one of these ESPN touts who claimed to be a pro bettor. When I criticized him for podcasting with scum like Vegas Runner et al, he insisted "I go after those guys HARD," and told me he too wants to clean up the industry, but thought my approach of "aggressively going after everyone" is not a good one. He then said "you won't be able to say I don't go after touts after you listen to [some podcast] where I ripped on [some tout who was also a guest] at length!" Not even 24 hours elapsed before he said "Unfortunately there were technical difficulties with the podcast, and we all agreed it just made us all look bad. I don't think it's good for my reputation to criticize touts."

    If you were actually a "pro bettor," why the fuck would you care what the likes of Vegas Runner, PGF, Warren Sharp or their nuthuggers think about you??? Funny, it's almost as if these "pro bettors" know they don't actually win and need to supplement their income by either promoting frauds themselves, or associating with businesses that promote frauds..
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    These two clowns are unreal. I read Warren's Twitter mentions for this weekend and amazingly NOBODY noticed his SEA +3 -120 pick was missing from his record. It really tells you a lot about his target audience when he's on ESPN and a variety of other mainstream media outlets, has 22k+ Twitter followers, and apparently none of his customers are even checking his records for accuracy. There are more people on this forum checking BG, DrH et al for accuracy than his entire Twitter audience!

    Today Warren sends out this email to his customers:

    "Not an ideal week 1 but as Krackman said on our call Sunday morning, the goal for each game is to get closing line value and win. We achieved the first part of that in a significant way week 1. Even though these were not my computer totals, we beat the closing market massively on all totals. Due to the favorable movement, which will continue, I will again encourage those who bought a week 1-only package last week to get the week 2 package (available now) as soon as possible. If you missed out on listening to Kracks video on Sunday, you can listen to it now (I will leave it up one more day). CFB totals will start this week as well. NFL totals are 60% year to date (3-2) but totals from my computer model start week 3."

    The bulk of his CLV came from his first half totals (the three winners), two of which were released a day before Pinny even put up a market, and he completely ignores the market shat all over his sides. Using Pinny, JAX +5.5 -111 at release, +5.5 +100 midpoint close. ARI -2 -109 at release, ARI -2.5 +111 midpoint close. SEA 2.5 -107 at release, SEA +2.5 +105 midpoint close.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Why do you care so much? They target degens that rationalize dusting off their life savings. The degen gets to blame the service when he inevitably goes broke. He doesnt get to do that if he picks his own losers. The chumps that buy these picks are not sitting in front of Don Best all day checking closers and adding up CLV lol. I dont know you, but from the outside looking in your obsession with this topic has become unhealthy. You seem sharp enough to spend your precious time on earth in a much more productive manner.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    pinny is super late on NFL 1h's. you can get plenty down before they post.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited September 2017
    Why do you care so much? They target degens that rationalize dusting off their life savings. The degen gets to blame the service when he inevitably goes broke. He doesnt get to do that if he picks his own losers. The chumps that buy these picks are not sitting in front of Don Best all day checking closers and adding up CLV lol. I dont know you, but from the outside looking in your obsession with this topic has become unhealthy. You seem sharp enough to spend your precious time on earth in a much more productive manner.

    When they are getting cited by ESPN and other mainstream media outlets, it goes beyond just "targeting degens" and gets to actually picking up customers that might think ESPN wouldn't be giving a podium to dishonest cappers. I applaud anyone that's willing to take time to potentially save people from sending their money to some of these guys without fully understanding what they're getting into.
  • mutinycapmutinycap Member
    edited September 2017
    Why do you care so much? They target degens that rationalize dusting off their life savings. The degen gets to blame the service when he inevitably goes broke. He doesnt get to do that if he picks his own losers. The chumps that buy these picks are not sitting in front of Don Best all day checking closers and adding up CLV lol. I dont know you, but from the outside looking in your obsession with this topic has become unhealthy. You seem sharp enough to spend your precious time on earth in a much more productive manner.

    I have never understood someone who criticizes those who are willing to expose frauds. Where do you begin to find a downside?
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    Why do you care so much? They target degens that rationalize dusting off their life savings. The degen gets to blame the service when he inevitably goes broke. He doesnt get to do that if he picks his own losers. The chumps that buy these picks are not sitting in front of Don Best all day checking closers and adding up CLV lol. I dont know you, but from the outside looking in your obsession with this topic has become unhealthy. You seem sharp enough to spend your precious time on earth in a much more productive manner.

    Why do you care that I care? You're the same person who, just a few posts ago, said in reference to Vegas Dave, someone else I've exposed:

    "I was hoping this massive fraud and POS would be physically or locked up someday. Shots on me tonight. "

    While Dave is a massive fraud and POS, advantage players shouldn't exactly be celebrating the circumstances surrounding his indictment and I actually hope he's acquitted (and then promptly ODs on the drugs he sells during his celebration party.)

    Warren Sharp is a lot more harmful than Vegas Dave because anyone clueless enough to bet Dave's martingales will probably find some other scam to go broke following. But Warren sounds knowledgeable enough via his stats and as TommyL notes, places like ESPN and various radio outlets give him mainstream credibility. That people are even questioning on this forum where posters are ostensibly sharper than most

    Considering all the idiotic stuff that people post on gambling forums, it baffles me that so many people seem to care that I care. I guarantee you I spend less time on this crap than most people on gambling forums spend sweating games.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    durito wrote: »
    pinny is super late on NFL 1h's. you can get plenty down before they post.

    That's reasonable enough but he isn't even using CRIS lines, his three plays so far graded at -110 were released when CRIS was at -119 -115 and -116 respectively.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    mutinycap wrote: »
    I have never understood someone who criticizes those who are willing to expose frauds. Where do you begin to find a downside?

    I probably have at least one person a week tell me I'm "obsessed with Fezzik," meanwhile Fezzik is on the radio challenging me to fight him at the Westgate tout fest and posting on EOG calling me "Groovin Chicken" because I won't confront him in person. Chris Andrews goes on the radio claiming I'm a VegasWatch ghost and that I threatened to rape and sodomize Johnny Detroit's wife (and leaves out the part where Johnny stiffed me for 10k.) Seems like I'm a rather functional member of society compared to these yahoos.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    The only place Johnny Detroit stiffed you 10k is in your mind. Every rational poster who's seen that story over the years (and you've sure told it enough) realizes that was nothing but ridiculous posturing on his part with no intention to ever pay you a cent no matter what happened.
  • bcl4bcl4 Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    kdog wrote: »
    The only place Johnny Detroit stiffed you 10k is in your mind. Every rational poster who's seen that story over the years (and you've sure told it enough) realizes that was nothing but ridiculous posturing on his part with no intention to ever pay you a cent no matter what happened.

    LOL, "everyone knew he was going to stiff you, so he didn't actually stiff you"
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited September 2017
    kdog wrote: »
    The only place Johnny Detroit stiffed you 10k is in your mind. Every rational poster who's seen that story over the years (and you've sure told it enough) realizes that was nothing but ridiculous posturing on his part with no intention to ever pay you a cent no matter what happened.

    This logic is ridiculous but I should have known you'd snap reply as soon as the topic of "Groovin ghosts / imposters" came up in the thread. Johnny Detroit is an agent for BetPhoenix (or at least was at the time), EOG is owned by BetPhoenix, so of course it was silly to assume a BetPhoenix agent would pay after EOG told him to pay. I suppose it was also my fault that immediately afterwards, Johnny's BetPhoenix superagent gave him my IP address and password so that Johnny could try to empty out the account that had logged in via the same IP address.
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