CLV matters!
Dr. H
Senior Member
Most here are well aware of the value of CLV (closing line value), but many aren't. As football draws near, if you're looking to follow somebody, look at their line value more than their record. If a capper has an edge, it will show in their line value very quickly, while results vary a lot in the short term. Again, nothing new to most, but I see so many people start following a guy because he's "hot" and started off 10-2 or something, but a quick glance would show that said capper is not beating the close, so it's very easy to see that the success won't continue. Just some quick data from my MLB picks this year to help demonstrate how important it is:
Games where I have 0 or neg CLV: 36-34, 53.48 adj. win%, +1.61 units (I should be all rights be losing units here, I've run well.)
Games with CLV between 0% and 2%: 46-39, 55%, +4.65 units
Games with CLV between 2% and 4%: 57-46, 56.2%, +8.23 units
Games with CLV higher than 4%: 43-27, 62.1%, +14.24 units
Those are arbitrary cut points and this is not the best statistical analysis, but you get the idea. CLV matters. A lot. The bigger edge that you have over the closing line, the more likely you are to win and the more you're going to win. Remember that as football comes up when evaluating your own plays and the plays of others.
Good luck!
Games where I have 0 or neg CLV: 36-34, 53.48 adj. win%, +1.61 units (I should be all rights be losing units here, I've run well.)
Games with CLV between 0% and 2%: 46-39, 55%, +4.65 units
Games with CLV between 2% and 4%: 57-46, 56.2%, +8.23 units
Games with CLV higher than 4%: 43-27, 62.1%, +14.24 units
Those are arbitrary cut points and this is not the best statistical analysis, but you get the idea. CLV matters. A lot. The bigger edge that you have over the closing line, the more likely you are to win and the more you're going to win. Remember that as football comes up when evaluating your own plays and the plays of others.
Good luck!
Comments
Good Luck
There is a major downside to that. That's why you have to stay under the limit and spread your plays around. There are soft lines all over in this town. If you skin them they're going to cut you . I use to play limits at Cantor placing wagers for someone else. It took me three years for them to realize they no longer have to target my account. I couldn't play at higher limits at all. Even though I had no association anymore with anyone tearing the lines up lines
Haha, funny the way these casino's are so afraid and a Stations account no less. A little off this subject on CLV but on Blackjack They backed off a guy will all know and have seen on TV many times playing poker and has been playing Blackjack for many years and is an $8million lifetime loser and also plays Baccarat. I know it's off topic on what's being discussed here it just makes me want to puke when I hear stories like that. The Mirage was the last MGM property that took his Blackjack play because I begged my VP and then about a trip or two later was told tell him his BJ is no longer welcome here. It didn't look good for the company that we were willing to take him and his BJ and Bacc play on. I was the one that had to tell him. Talk about being embarrassed. Ron your story is just as sad. Now I know the reason why both players were backed off but come on his CLV was there and they felt long term they had a good shot of losing to this person. Some people have to win but they want every last dime. Stations limits aren't going to hurt them. I was backed off Blackjack at the Sun Coast because of a power press (3x) with a simple running count. Ahh I do love telling stories
about this town. I still can't believe what they did to the stardust business wise and then blowing it up. Talk about Vegas history.
This is what makes the apps so great here now because they all move on air and you just spread it around.
Is there a situation where CLV doesn't matter, that being those times when you're making a play very close to game time and know that you'll end up with virtually zero CLV? If you have a game that has taken some late steam and now has moved into your range, do you play it? Or do you respect the market and assume that those that moved it into your range know what they're doing and you don't want to fade the steam?
Amen. This has always been my gripe with the slavish devotion to CLV. Especially in college baskets with the smaller teams, many times it's 1 or 2 people moving the line. Somebody here with math skills needs to come up with an alternative to CLV that emphasizes plain ole line value. In the above scenario you get zero CLV when you're actually getting the best of the number.
I used to play those spots a lot more than I do now. I agree that the market can't be perfectly efficient because there is an expiring clock on it, so any overadjustment just before game time can't be corrected before start. But I think worm described it well awhile back, to paraphrase - if sharp money is coming in right before game hammering +5 and I can grab -4, who do you think will win more often? You're assuming that the very sharp money coming in at this point is wrong - it's likely not. It's actually worm that pointed that out to me a couple years ago - track your plays that you make at post and see how you do. I didn't do well, which makes sense to me because I'm fading someone sharp with a huge bankroll.
Don't confuse getting the peak # with getting the best #. There's a reason it's the peak. If a game opens -3 and gets slammed all week long by sharp money and is -7 at close, getting +7 isn't getting the "best" #, it's just the peak. The best # was -3. As I stated above, it's my belief that fading sharp money that is coming in when limits are highest right before game time is not a profitable move long term.
Both imo
Well at least this part makes sense.
It isn't that much different in other markets. Those 1 or 2 people usually matter a lot.