Ohio State hedge question
gatorshoosiers
Senior Member
Got a future of $80 to win $3360 with the spread being so big what would you guys recommend? Just put a few hundred on Oregon ML?
Comments
1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).
Goats has brainwashed you.
Yes, him and math
$3360 doesn't change your life then. Unless you feel like the new bet is +EV, then leave everything alone. Making an additional bet on this game just because you have the original bet is a -EV play.
The idea to never hedge unless the given scenarios is fucking stupid. If I got a 100$ parlay to pay out 10k and I have one game left, then I'm gonna offset atleast 4k of it. And 10k wouldn't change my life. Fuck math, think reality, and do what makes you comfortable.
You overbet the oregon ML so that if OSU does win you still lose money. In this case my model says 5k on the oregon ML.
Lmao!!!!
This may come as a surprise, but not everyone reacts to losing like you do.
You know what would be even more "fucking stupid"? Playing an "x" game parlay and deciding to hedge out of it after "x-1" games, when you could have just played an "x-1" game parlay. Not saying that you'd do this, but it kills mean when I read posts from people that did do it, and decide to just give the book the juice on both sides of a game when there was an easy way to avoid it.
As for this situation, I wouldn't even think about hedging. On the other hand, if I were the sportsbook, I'd be happy if you hedge.
That is what always shocks me when I see morons going on about NFL parlays. They put in a 5 team parlay with 4 early games and 1 late game and if they go 4-0 they ALWAYS hedge out.
I hear you on this but it does suck to lose on the last game. Personally my rule is to hedge back no more than my original bet so the worst I wind up is even.
The "book" would suggest a hedge. Assuming your goal is to maximize the growth of your bankroll. -ev hedges can certainly and often are +eg.
The proper math (kelly) will almost certainly suggest a hedge on the 5th game. It probably wouldn't have suggest you bet the parlay in the first place, but once it's done the hedge is likely correct.
This is wrong. The hedge is correct when it is +eg which can happen even without overbetting the original bet.
Can you give an example?
Hi Casper
IF you bet parlays, never cross "time zones" in any sport. If you've got 4 early plays and 1 late-- cross off the late play. If you've got 1 early play and 4 late ones-- cross off the early play. This is especially true in college FB or BB when you've got about 4 time "windows" during the day.
Kane I gotta good idea..........but I'm no stool pidgeon.
This arguement has some merit on both sides. It all depends on the player's situation, tolerance and status.
The beauty I'm waiting for is the player that says he's trying to middle out with a stone stiff book.
I have someone in mind too, but I'm far from sure. He's definitely a ghost, that I am sure of
A side of jalape?os?
I'll take 20 to 1 action on any guesses
Edward Golden