Betting Talk

Ohio State hedge question

gatorshoosiersgatorshoosiers Senior Member
edited January 2015 in Sports Betting
Got a future of $80 to win $3360 with the spread being so big what would you guys recommend? Just put a few hundred on Oregon ML?
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Comments

  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    What's your normal unit bet size? Trying to gauge how much risk you have.
  • PeanutDaKidnapperPeanutDaKidnapper Member
    edited January 2015
    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    PeanutDaKidnapper wrote: »
    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).

    Goats has brainwashed you.
  • PeanutDaKidnapperPeanutDaKidnapper Member
    edited January 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Goats has brainwashed you.

    Yes, him and math
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    another classic golfer post :).
  • gatorshoosiersgatorshoosiers Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Any type of future $100 or less....Games $500-$1000
  • PeanutDaKidnapperPeanutDaKidnapper Member
    edited January 2015
    gatorshoosiers wrote: »
    Any type of future $100 or less....Games $500-$1000


    $3360 doesn't change your life then. Unless you feel like the new bet is +EV, then leave everything alone. Making an additional bet on this game just because you have the original bet is a -EV play.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    I'd offset it. Make a little (-ev ) bet and guarantee a decent profit. Don't go by the "book" on everything. Your gonna be mad as fuck when it loses if you don't hedge some.

    The idea to never hedge unless the given scenarios is fucking stupid. If I got a 100$ parlay to pay out 10k and I have one game left, then I'm gonna offset atleast 4k of it. And 10k wouldn't change my life. Fuck math, think reality, and do what makes you comfortable.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    I'd recommend the rarely used OVERHEDGE.

    You overbet the oregon ML so that if OSU does win you still lose money. In this case my model says 5k on the oregon ML.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    I'd recommend the rarely used OVERHEDGE.

    You overbet the oregon ML so that if OSU does win you still lose money. In this case my model says 5k on the oregon ML.

    Lmao!!!!
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited January 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Your gonna be mad as fuck when it loses if you don't hedge some.

    This may come as a surprise, but not everyone reacts to losing like you do.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    You got it at 42 to 1..that seems to be really good value...if it's me I risk 660 to win 300 on the ml. That keeps your value on the futures ticket at 33 to 1 and puts a little money in your pocket worse case scenario.
  • gatorshoosiersgatorshoosiers Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    kcburgh wrote: »
    You got it at 42 to 1..that seems to be really good value...if it's me I risk 660 to win 300 on the ml. That keeps your value on the futures ticket at 33 to 1 and puts a little money in your pocket worse case scenario.
    Will probably do that and possible something at half time if OSU is up....Thanks for the help everyone.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    The idea to never hedge unless the given scenarios is fucking stupid. If I got a 100$ parlay to pay out 10k and I have one game left, then I'm gonna offset atleast 4k of it. And 10k wouldn't change my life. Fuck math, think reality, and do what makes you comfortable.

    You know what would be even more "fucking stupid"? Playing an "x" game parlay and deciding to hedge out of it after "x-1" games, when you could have just played an "x-1" game parlay. Not saying that you'd do this, but it kills mean when I read posts from people that did do it, and decide to just give the book the juice on both sides of a game when there was an easy way to avoid it.

    As for this situation, I wouldn't even think about hedging. On the other hand, if I were the sportsbook, I'd be happy if you hedge.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    You know what would be even more "fucking stupid"? Playing an "x" game parlay and deciding to hedge out of it after "x-1" games, when you could have just played an "x-1" game parlay. Not saying that you'd do this, but it kills mean when I read posts from people that did do it, and decide to just give the book the juice on both sides of a game when there was an easy way to avoid it.

    As for this situation, I wouldn't even think about hedging. On the other hand, if I were the sportsbook, I'd be happy if you hedge.

    That is what always shocks me when I see morons going on about NFL parlays. They put in a 5 team parlay with 4 early games and 1 late game and if they go 4-0 they ALWAYS hedge out.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Kashmir wrote: »
    That is what always shocks me when I see morons going on about NFL parlays. They put in a 5 team parlay with 4 early games and 1 late game and if they go 4-0 they ALWAYS hedge out.

    I hear you on this but it does suck to lose on the last game. Personally my rule is to hedge back no more than my original bet so the worst I wind up is even.
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Been tempted to hedge many times but never have. It's just not in me to give up any part of my edge.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    I'd offset it. Make a little (-ev ) bet and guarantee a decent profit. Don't go by the "book" on everything. Your gonna be mad as fuck when it loses if you don't hedge some.

    The idea to never hedge unless the given scenarios is fucking stupid. If I got a 100$ parlay to pay out 10k and I have one game left, then I'm gonna offset atleast 4k of it. And 10k wouldn't change my life. Fuck math, think reality, and do what makes you comfortable.


    The "book" would suggest a hedge. Assuming your goal is to maximize the growth of your bankroll. -ev hedges can certainly and often are +eg.

    The proper math (kelly) will almost certainly suggest a hedge on the 5th game. It probably wouldn't have suggest you bet the parlay in the first place, but once it's done the hedge is likely correct.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    PeanutDaKidnapper wrote: »
    You should not hedge unless any of the following conditions apply...

    1. You believe the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies in contest or game show type scenarios).

    This is wrong. The hedge is correct when it is +eg which can happen even without overbetting the original bet.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Additionaly the bet is certainly an overbet as he stands to win over 3k with usual units of $500-1k
  • PeanutDaKidnapperPeanutDaKidnapper Member
    edited January 2015
    durito wrote: »
    This is wrong. The hedge is correct when it is +eg which can happen even without overbetting the original bet.

    Can you give an example?
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    PeanutDaKidnapper wrote: »
    Can you give an example?

    Hi Casper
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Exactly- thanks durito
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Kashmir wrote: »
    That is what always shocks me when I see morons going on about NFL parlays. They put in a 5 team parlay with 4 early games and 1 late game and if they go 4-0 they ALWAYS hedge out.

    IF you bet parlays, never cross "time zones" in any sport. If you've got 4 early plays and 1 late-- cross off the late play. If you've got 1 early play and 4 late ones-- cross off the early play. This is especially true in college FB or BB when you've got about 4 time "windows" during the day.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    kane wrote: »
    Hi Casper

    Kane I gotta good idea..........but I'm no stool pidgeon.

    This arguement has some merit on both sides. It all depends on the player's situation, tolerance and status.

    The beauty I'm waiting for is the player that says he's trying to middle out with a stone stiff book.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Kane I gotta good idea..........but I'm no stool pidgeon.

    This arguement has some merit on both sides. It all depends on the player's situation, tolerance and status.

    The beauty I'm waiting for is the player that says he's trying to middle out with a stone stiff book.

    I have someone in mind too, but I'm far from sure. He's definitely a ghost, that I am sure of
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    kane wrote: »
    I have someone in mind too, but I'm far from sure. He's definitely a ghost, that I am sure of

    A side of jalape?os?
  • PeanutDaKidnapperPeanutDaKidnapper Member
    edited January 2015
    kane wrote: »
    I have someone in mind too, but I'm far from sure. He's definitely a ghost, that I am sure of


    I'll take 20 to 1 action on any guesses
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    PeanutDaKidnapper wrote: »
    I'll take 20 to 1 action on any guesses

    Edward Golden
  • OakmountOakmount Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    I had Wash St. 100-5000 to win the Rose Bowl many yrs ago, they lost to Michigan, and I'm still talking about it, so I clearly would have been better off hedging. I'd redo hedging, at least you get something for being 99% right.
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