2014 BP Football-Never Go Full Retout
BennyProfane
Senior Member
I actually have spare time lately, so I worked out a math model for betting the CFL. It's the first time I've ever used statistics to handicap, and it feels strange. I am betting these for 1/3 of what I usually bet on games.
124 Winnipeg/BC under 52 (-106)
124 Winnipeg/BC under 52 (-106)
Comments
127 Toronto +7 (even) pinnacle
Ouch! I hate to see this-- I've got Hamilton -6 and Sask -6.5--- so the way I've been going lately, I can just chalk up an 0-2 evening. Just like I do when Old Timer has the opposite side in baseball.
426 Calgary -4.5 (bookmaker)
428 Ottawa +5.5 EV (pinny)
The Calgary play is not a misprint.
125 Hamilton +7 (-107)
8 of clubs play. Reports from Cleveland are that JM isn't anything special.
Here's how it got started. I was surfing the internet and I randomly found the following website:
http://dilemna.info/
I read over it, and my recollection of Mrs. Dalferes' fifth grade class is exactly the same as the creator of that website. I am absolutely certain that the correct spelling of the word is "dilemna". It's beyond bizarre that so many people could misremember a detail so mundane. It was driving me crazy that a memory that is so distinct and clear could be completely wrong. There isn't a single example anywhere in print of the word every being spelled with an n.
So I started looking for other instances of things like this. That's when things got worse. There are a group of websites that deal with things like this. The first one threw me just as bad:
http://woodbetweenworlds.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-berenstein-bears-we-are-living-in.html
It's been a long time since 3rd grade, but wtf is going on here? How could a family of cartoon bears have retroactively had their name changed?
More research followed. I sat in a four day old t-shirt, eating ramen and drinking coffee, hacking away at my laptop trying to get to the bottom of this.
The best website to discuss these kinds of false memories (that I could find)is here:
http://mandelaeffect.com/
Questions that I'd like to discuss with anyone here:
Have you ever had a memory of a historical event that you later discovered to be completely false?
Does anyone else's memory match mine?
What causes false memories?
Fading the steam. I have this lined at 1.5. Good for a small bet.
I had the same situation with the bears. I LOVED those books as a kid. I didnt find out until much later how I had basically skipped over that spelling my entire childhood. It was quite strange to know I was wrong the entire time.
151 Texas San Antonio +10
158 Navy +16.5
167 Georgia Southern +20.5
good luck this season
Opening night -6 seems like a trap. There should be an avalanche of square money laying the favorite, but there's still not enough line value on Green Bay to justify a play. Stanford Wong's old system of fading the super bowl champs in their first game hasn't worked in a while. Still lean very heavily to the dog and under in this thing. The Packers still have enough players from their championship team to beat anybody, and Aaron Rodgers is smarter than people give him credit for. My hunch is that Seattle is just too over confident and GB figures out a way to steal it late. Will wait to see what others do.
My favorite play on the board is the under in the Saints-Falcons. 51.5 at pinny, and there are 52.5s out there. It's a very bitter division rivalry, and the teams and coaches know each other's play books, so there won't be any big surprises. Saints d should be better in the second year under Ryan. New Orleans is still a finesse team at its core, and the way to beat them is by running the ball between the tackles on offense, and not giving up big plays on defense.
I took a shot on 486 Dallas at +6 now that pinny is down to 4.5. San Francisco has had three amazing seasons in a row, and it's just hard to maintain that. They have some scattered injuries, and they didn't look too impressive in preseason.
Dallas is a perennial underachiever, but have to think they'll be up for their home opener. It's a make or break year for many people in that organization, and have to think they'll be the more motivated side here.
Strongly lean to Carolina and they are the best teaser leg on the card. No matter what Newton's status is, their defense was a close second to Seattle's last year, and Tampa is a nothing special team with a nothing special coach. Waiting to see where the line goes.
That's it so far, will update as the week drags on.
317 Central Mich +3 (even)
341 Akron +14 (-102)
351 Michigan State +12 (-106)
353 Idaho +14 1/2
360 New Mexico +25
375 SDSU +15 1/2
384 Wyoming +2 1/2
388 Hawaii +10 1/2
Just so that I can post one play this weekend, I bet Niners/Bears 1st half under. Pinny currently has 24.5 (-125)
103 App State +19 (no idea about the line movement. Other side could be RAS.
105 Texas Tech +13 1/2
113 Wyoming +31
120 Iowa State +21
121 USF +34
129 Akron +20 1/2
132 Purdue +10
135 Northwestern +10 1/2
Nevada pk -125
Arizona -1 (-101)
Will try to write something. Too much has happened.