Betting Talk

Simulation heaven

2

Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 10
    Cancel bets and then post the next round anyway? Really giving no fucks here about free rolling people
    @betonline_ag

    @davemasonbol

    @BetOnlineBurns
    9:08 AM · Apr 10, 2020·TweetDeck

    Betting predetermined outcomes for 50 bucks a pop is less fun than losing money gambling tbh

    Just copied what's going around
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 10
    To the People at BT stay away from this crap. Try turning a toothpick into a lumber yard by betting horse racing at least you have a shot. I know all about the takeout but for a couple of bucks there's scores to be made.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 10
    I been running my app on this but since it is not on a regular api it is a huge job. I probably wont be doing it anymore as far as setting lines and booking through the app.

    I will still keep betting but man look at these things

    its crazy

    I bet the Niners at +8 and it closed at PICKEM problem is they chop your limit down really fast.

    it feels like the popular teams play well and win, so for squares I think its pretty easy to get ahead BUT I think the books will wise up they already moved to 115 120 lines

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    like you think Rockets vs Blazers would be Rockets winning pretty big and if you sim on 2K20 a 1000 times they do, so the idea that 5 6 7 8 pts is an equalize like in real NBA is probably not true in this case

    Seen the Lakers -27 and I think they still won by 50+

    I think it magnifies star performance the video game I mean

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    I also think its fun as hell
    PURE Recreation fun
    bet 50 bucks and cheer on your team. I dont think this would be a go to money making venture.
    its pretty simple to sim 1000 games in about 20 minutes and get a score but for what, to get chopped down to 50 dollar limits for all that work.

    BUT FUN drink a beer hell yeah! I even caught myself listening to half time analysis from a cartoon of Shaq, LOL
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 11
    Where can i watch on of these games or do i need to bet it to watch
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 11
    jets96 wrote: »
    Where can i watch on of these games or do i need to bet it to watch


    Column A of this sheet has all the stream locations to watch them, you dont need to bet on them to watch.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVbFkk2Sm91onzYpKKPa7NF8phOyWqvcDZtVJ45a1vY/edit#gid=0
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 13
    I now added NHL

    and it seems like the 2K20 betting as slowed to a near stop because books were getting crushed

    I would have Lakers -17 and they had -4.5 and Lakers win by 60
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    what are you basing your 17 spread on though
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 13
    I use my regular NBA model and then add in 2k20 team ratings from the maker of the game

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    I also do a strength of opponent comparison to the current opponent

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    I got the NIners at +8 the other day at betonline and it closed at PICKEM
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    closed at pk and how'd the bet go, win or lose
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 13
    win 23-20 9ers but my limits have been cut pretty bad so I am mainly depending on the app bets, to make money from all the work

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    look at this
    they got Steelers -6.5
    NFL Madden SIM 4-13 1pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/sportsbooktv

    and here is the same matchup at another book
    NFL Madden SIM 4-13 6pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/livefootballsims
    and they got Steelers +5.5


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    here is another one
    NFL Madden SIM 4-13 11am CT Ravens@Bengals twitch.tv/sportsbooktv
    Ravens won 30-13

    and here is the same game but Ravens home
    NFL Madden SIM 4-13 4pm CT Bengals@Ravens twitch.tv/primetimeaction
    Ravens are -9

    I have Ravens -10.5 on my app

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    Crazy shit dude ....good luck
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    ok so i watch a little of the jets game ..so how to i look up past stats for a up coming game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 13
    past stats like what? like passing yards and stuff, that does not exist yet
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    ok do this ....if there are no records or games stats to go by , i have to go by my power ratings from last year ....ok so for shit and giggles give me a few games and let me make lines for them

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    in that giant jets game i had a line of nyg -1 using my pr from last year
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    for that den at sd game i have sd -1

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    kc at sd ...pk ...if i were to bet id take the 7
    den/sd i wouldve passed

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    hou at gb i have gb -3.5

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    cinn at balt ....balt -6.5 ....i would take cinn +11
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    ne at chi ....chi -2 ....id take chi +4.5

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    ne at piit pit -2....id take pitt +5.5
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    danshan wrote: »
    its an illusion that video games are somehow different than real life.
    I do see some strategy stuff that really does not make sense but then I watch the Meadowlands miracle and say did that make sense
    they are definitely poor with clock management at the end of games, turnovers are as random as anything else. the pass to run ratio is nearly equal to the real NFL. Flags only thing I took issue with flags was it seems to me there is an abundance of delay of games, but other than that I dont see any real issue.

    its pure illusion that there is a difference UNTIL SOMEONE can actually solve the algo and take the chance out of it.

    and to call NFL sims a small sample size is just flat wrong, the entire NFL season is not an adequate sample size

    Jones completes 62% of 7yd slant passes to a receiver who catches 70% of the slants thrown to him 1 yd separation from a defender who defends against the slant at 42%
    in the NFL he completes 62% of these the exact same as the game

    its pure illusion, its like guys who say oh that craps machine is way different than an actual craps table, its funny!

    its that the Giants are really motivated to win this game, no one has ever proven that has an impact and has never quantified, pro athletes just like rec ball players, play to win!

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    if you look at the stats from the current Dodgers game you can clearly see everything lines up

    they dont have 6 runs on 1 hit or 79 strikeouts
    compare the stats of this dodger game to any dodger game where they won 6-1, its very similar

    its just an illusion and honestly its an illusion the books have not solved, I keep seeing them drop limits more and more everyday. Mybookie cut me to 50 dollars on NBA simulation sides within a week.

    LOL. The advantage of betting a sport is that you get a true outcome. You do not get true outcomes in investing. In the case of a video game, you are not getting a true outcome. You get a projected statistical outcome. Those are two different things.

    So if you are betting MyBookie projected lines, you have value. If you are betting a decent model, you have no value because there is nothing to bet.

    For someone like yourself that believes sports are just statistics, this is a good time and might have value.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    nyg at dall ...dal -4.5 ....no play

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    cards at jag ...jags -2 no play

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    phila at seattle ....seattle -2.5 no play

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    sf at sea ...sea -1 no play

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    tenn at lar ...rams -3 id take the rams +1.5

    atl at balt ....bal -6 ...no play

    thats it let me know how i do
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 13
    jets96 wrote: »
    nyg at dall ...dal -4.5 ....no play

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    cards at jag ...jags -2 no play

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    phila at seattle ....seattle -2.5 no play

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    sf at sea ...sea -1 no play

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    tenn at lar ...rams -3 id take the rams +1.5

    atl at balt ....bal -6 ...no play

    thats it let me know how i do

    You would bet this the way you would bet the outcome of a football game in the year of the model. danshan believes the models used in these computer games are right on. So you take whatever line you think has value and you bet it as if it were going to be an NFL football game and you will get an outcome consistent with a computer model of the game with some thrown in randomness.

    danshan has a very good understanding of how these games play out and is very good at modeling so he can project the Madden model and determine if the books model is as good. You can't do that.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 14
    example for a real game today

    Skins at Bears Bovada has -5.5

    I model Bears -8

    so lets assume we both are a little wrong and it will close around 7


    so I want Bears bets at 7 or below with juice

    so I set Bears at 6 and I should get bets on the dog at 6 which gives me the Bears -6 at +110

    I have Bears -6 +110
    closes (fair not actual)
    -5.5 +100 so -6 +110 so I am even on this bet
    -6 +100 so -6 +110 I am up a dime
    -6.5 +100 so -6 -110 I am up 20 cents
    -7 +100 so -6 -120 I am up 30 cents (not messing with key numbers for simple math)

    right?

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    FYI Jets the Rams pounded a hole in the Titans last night
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 14
    what all the other games i wouldve taken , one game dont mean dick ....
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 14
    KC SD you lose SD kicked their ass
    GB won by 11 you win
    Cincy Balt you would of won 1 and lost 1 they played twice
    Rams you win
    NE CHI you lose Pats won big
    NE PItt you win Pats won by 3

    you would have kicked ass

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    do it again tomorrow, you can look up the games on bovada, bookmaker and betonline maybe later tonight or tomorrow to get lines and games

    pick again dude
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 15
    listen post that link again the one you posted earlier , if you can .
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 15
    i used your old link ill do lines now

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    most of those games are off or done, no scores there though

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    ne at lar ...my line lar -2.5 ....posted line lar +1.5 ....no play

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    det at chi ....my line chi -4.5 posted line -6.5 no play

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    car at atl ...my line atl 4.5 ..posted line atl -2.5 no play

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    tenn at balt ...my line bal -5.5 ...posted line -5.5 no play
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 16
    Dan , no more games this was getting fun
  • danshandanshan Senior Member

    sorry man I have been just swamped


    have you checked out the new site and the brand new app

    check it out jgexchange.com


    also check out the coolest simulation thing ever http://jgexchange.com/streamertest/


    this thing is super cool,

  • danshandanshan Senior Member

    I think I have now added some live betting on simulations. hope it works out, will be up today!!!

  • danshandanshan Senior Member

    I am looking for some old guy who does not need very much money


    I am adding a live betting option to my app


    problem is I need to have someone manually peek at lines my software kicks out and catch obvious errors

    its not long term its a short term gig once the software is "smart" enough, we will just use it and have a human bets coming in reviewer

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member

    where do i find the lines for the football games

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