To the People at BT stay away from this crap. Try turning a toothpick into a lumber yard by betting horse racing at least you have a shot. I know all about the takeout but for a couple of bucks there's scores to be made.
I been running my app on this but since it is not on a regular api it is a huge job. I probably wont be doing it anymore as far as setting lines and booking through the app.
I will still keep betting but man look at these things
its crazy
I bet the Niners at +8 and it closed at PICKEM problem is they chop your limit down really fast.
it feels like the popular teams play well and win, so for squares I think its pretty easy to get ahead BUT I think the books will wise up they already moved to 115 120 lines
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like you think Rockets vs Blazers would be Rockets winning pretty big and if you sim on 2K20 a 1000 times they do, so the idea that 5 6 7 8 pts is an equalize like in real NBA is probably not true in this case
Seen the Lakers -27 and I think they still won by 50+
I think it magnifies star performance the video game I mean
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I also think its fun as hell
PURE Recreation fun
bet 50 bucks and cheer on your team. I dont think this would be a go to money making venture.
its pretty simple to sim 1000 games in about 20 minutes and get a score but for what, to get chopped down to 50 dollar limits for all that work.
BUT FUN drink a beer hell yeah! I even caught myself listening to half time analysis from a cartoon of Shaq, LOL
ok do this ....if there are no records or games stats to go by , i have to go by my power ratings from last year ....ok so for shit and giggles give me a few games and let me make lines for them
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in that giant jets game i had a line of nyg -1 using my pr from last year
its an illusion that video games are somehow different than real life.
I do see some strategy stuff that really does not make sense but then I watch the Meadowlands miracle and say did that make sense
they are definitely poor with clock management at the end of games, turnovers are as random as anything else. the pass to run ratio is nearly equal to the real NFL. Flags only thing I took issue with flags was it seems to me there is an abundance of delay of games, but other than that I dont see any real issue.
its pure illusion that there is a difference UNTIL SOMEONE can actually solve the algo and take the chance out of it.
and to call NFL sims a small sample size is just flat wrong, the entire NFL season is not an adequate sample size
Jones completes 62% of 7yd slant passes to a receiver who catches 70% of the slants thrown to him 1 yd separation from a defender who defends against the slant at 42%
in the NFL he completes 62% of these the exact same as the game
its pure illusion, its like guys who say oh that craps machine is way different than an actual craps table, its funny!
its that the Giants are really motivated to win this game, no one has ever proven that has an impact and has never quantified, pro athletes just like rec ball players, play to win!
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if you look at the stats from the current Dodgers game you can clearly see everything lines up
they dont have 6 runs on 1 hit or 79 strikeouts
compare the stats of this dodger game to any dodger game where they won 6-1, its very similar
its just an illusion and honestly its an illusion the books have not solved, I keep seeing them drop limits more and more everyday. Mybookie cut me to 50 dollars on NBA simulation sides within a week.
LOL. The advantage of betting a sport is that you get a true outcome. You do not get true outcomes in investing. In the case of a video game, you are not getting a true outcome. You get a projected statistical outcome. Those are two different things.
So if you are betting MyBookie projected lines, you have value. If you are betting a decent model, you have no value because there is nothing to bet.
For someone like yourself that believes sports are just statistics, this is a good time and might have value.
You would bet this the way you would bet the outcome of a football game in the year of the model. danshan believes the models used in these computer games are right on. So you take whatever line you think has value and you bet it as if it were going to be an NFL football game and you will get an outcome consistent with a computer model of the game with some thrown in randomness.
danshan has a very good understanding of how these games play out and is very good at modeling so he can project the Madden model and determine if the books model is as good. You can't do that.
so lets assume we both are a little wrong and it will close around 7
so I want Bears bets at 7 or below with juice
so I set Bears at 6 and I should get bets on the dog at 6 which gives me the Bears -6 at +110
I have Bears -6 +110
closes (fair not actual)
-5.5 +100 so -6 +110 so I am even on this bet
-6 +100 so -6 +110 I am up a dime
-6.5 +100 so -6 -110 I am up 20 cents
-7 +100 so -6 -120 I am up 30 cents (not messing with key numbers for simple math)
right?
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FYI Jets the Rams pounded a hole in the Titans last night
KC SD you lose SD kicked their ass
GB won by 11 you win
Cincy Balt you would of won 1 and lost 1 they played twice
Rams you win
NE CHI you lose Pats won big
NE PItt you win Pats won by 3
you would have kicked ass
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do it again tomorrow, you can look up the games on bovada, bookmaker and betonline maybe later tonight or tomorrow to get lines and games
Comments
@betonline_ag
@davemasonbol
@BetOnlineBurns
9:08 AM · Apr 10, 2020·TweetDeck
Betting predetermined outcomes for 50 bucks a pop is less fun than losing money gambling tbh
Just copied what's going around
I will still keep betting but man look at these things
its crazy
I bet the Niners at +8 and it closed at PICKEM problem is they chop your limit down really fast.
it feels like the popular teams play well and win, so for squares I think its pretty easy to get ahead BUT I think the books will wise up they already moved to 115 120 lines
- - - Updated - - -
like you think Rockets vs Blazers would be Rockets winning pretty big and if you sim on 2K20 a 1000 times they do, so the idea that 5 6 7 8 pts is an equalize like in real NBA is probably not true in this case
Seen the Lakers -27 and I think they still won by 50+
I think it magnifies star performance the video game I mean
- - - Updated - - -
I also think its fun as hell
PURE Recreation fun
bet 50 bucks and cheer on your team. I dont think this would be a go to money making venture.
its pretty simple to sim 1000 games in about 20 minutes and get a score but for what, to get chopped down to 50 dollar limits for all that work.
BUT FUN drink a beer hell yeah! I even caught myself listening to half time analysis from a cartoon of Shaq, LOL
Column A of this sheet has all the stream locations to watch them, you dont need to bet on them to watch.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVbFkk2Sm91onzYpKKPa7NF8phOyWqvcDZtVJ45a1vY/edit#gid=0
and it seems like the 2K20 betting as slowed to a near stop because books were getting crushed
I would have Lakers -17 and they had -4.5 and Lakers win by 60
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I also do a strength of opponent comparison to the current opponent
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I got the NIners at +8 the other day at betonline and it closed at PICKEM
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look at this
they got Steelers -6.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-13 1pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/sportsbooktv
and here is the same matchup at another book
NFL Madden SIM 4-13 6pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/livefootballsims
and they got Steelers +5.5
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here is another one
NFL Madden SIM 4-13 11am CT Ravens@Bengals twitch.tv/sportsbooktv
Ravens won 30-13
and here is the same game but Ravens home
NFL Madden SIM 4-13 4pm CT Bengals@Ravens twitch.tv/primetimeaction
Ravens are -9
I have Ravens -10.5 on my app
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in that giant jets game i had a line of nyg -1 using my pr from last year
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kc at sd ...pk ...if i were to bet id take the 7
den/sd i wouldve passed
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hou at gb i have gb -3.5
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cinn at balt ....balt -6.5 ....i would take cinn +11
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ne at piit pit -2....id take pitt +5.5
LOL. The advantage of betting a sport is that you get a true outcome. You do not get true outcomes in investing. In the case of a video game, you are not getting a true outcome. You get a projected statistical outcome. Those are two different things.
So if you are betting MyBookie projected lines, you have value. If you are betting a decent model, you have no value because there is nothing to bet.
For someone like yourself that believes sports are just statistics, this is a good time and might have value.
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cards at jag ...jags -2 no play
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phila at seattle ....seattle -2.5 no play
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sf at sea ...sea -1 no play
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tenn at lar ...rams -3 id take the rams +1.5
atl at balt ....bal -6 ...no play
thats it let me know how i do
You would bet this the way you would bet the outcome of a football game in the year of the model. danshan believes the models used in these computer games are right on. So you take whatever line you think has value and you bet it as if it were going to be an NFL football game and you will get an outcome consistent with a computer model of the game with some thrown in randomness.
danshan has a very good understanding of how these games play out and is very good at modeling so he can project the Madden model and determine if the books model is as good. You can't do that.
Skins at Bears Bovada has -5.5
I model Bears -8
so lets assume we both are a little wrong and it will close around 7
so I want Bears bets at 7 or below with juice
so I set Bears at 6 and I should get bets on the dog at 6 which gives me the Bears -6 at +110
I have Bears -6 +110
closes (fair not actual)
-5.5 +100 so -6 +110 so I am even on this bet
-6 +100 so -6 +110 I am up a dime
-6.5 +100 so -6 -110 I am up 20 cents
-7 +100 so -6 -120 I am up 30 cents (not messing with key numbers for simple math)
right?
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FYI Jets the Rams pounded a hole in the Titans last night
GB won by 11 you win
Cincy Balt you would of won 1 and lost 1 they played twice
Rams you win
NE CHI you lose Pats won big
NE PItt you win Pats won by 3
you would have kicked ass
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do it again tomorrow, you can look up the games on bovada, bookmaker and betonline maybe later tonight or tomorrow to get lines and games
pick again dude
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most of those games are off or done, no scores there though
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ne at lar ...my line lar -2.5 ....posted line lar +1.5 ....no play
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det at chi ....my line chi -4.5 posted line -6.5 no play
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car at atl ...my line atl 4.5 ..posted line atl -2.5 no play
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tenn at balt ...my line bal -5.5 ...posted line -5.5 no play
sorry man I have been just swamped
have you checked out the new site and the brand new app
check it out jgexchange.com
also check out the coolest simulation thing ever http://jgexchange.com/streamertest/
this thing is super cool,
I think I have now added some live betting on simulations. hope it works out, will be up today!!!
I am looking for some old guy who does not need very much money
I am adding a live betting option to my app
problem is I need to have someone manually peek at lines my software kicks out and catch obvious errors
its not long term its a short term gig once the software is "smart" enough, we will just use it and have a human bets coming in reviewer
where do i find the lines for the football games
Lines are here
where to watch them is here
http://jgexchange.com/streamertest/