a formula i picked up many years ago at SSB ...my moneyline on the spurs game at -4 should be -163 , rook if you were to take spurs on moneyline at say -175 you wouldnt be getting a fair number ....
4-Dec nets -155 vs Hawks $100 to win $64.52 W -145
5-Dec Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) L -345
5-Dec Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22) W -380
6-Dec Nets -145 vs Hornets ($68.97) W -150
6-Dec Celtics -150 vs Nuggets ($66.67) W -160
6-Dec Lakers -186 vs Trailblazers ($53.76) W -200
6-Dec Heat -525 vs Wizards ($19.05) W -515
7-Dec Mavericks -400 vs Pelicans ($25.00) W -436
7-Dec Seventysixers -900 vs Cavaliers ($11.11) W -630
7-Dec Pacers -225 vs Knicks ($44.44) W -220
7-Dec Rockets -620 vs Suns ($16.13) W -750
8-Dec Clippers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) W -484
8-Dec Lakers -730 vs Timberwolves ($13.70) W -560
8-Dec Heat -295 vs Bulls ($33.90) W -265
9-Dec Celtics -1500 vs Cavaliers ($6.67) W -1235
9-Dec Raptors -250 vs Bulls ($40.00) W -245
9-Dec Bucks -900 vs Magic ($11.11) W -1100
10-Dec Seventysixers -190 vs Nuggets ($52.63) W -215
10-Dec Heat -400 vs Hawks ($25.00) W -385
10-Dec Trailblazers -420 vs Knicks ($23.81) W -450
11-Dec Celtics -110 vs Pacers ($90.91) L -105
11-Dec Lakers -375 vs Magic ($26.67) W -447
11-Dec Rockets -850 vs Cavaliers ($11.76) W -800
11-Dec Bulls -225 vs Hawks ($44.44) W -262
11-Dec Suns -290 vs Grizzlies ($34.48) L -290
11-Dec Clippers -150 vs Raptors ($66.67) W -144
12-Dec Spurs -800 vs Cavaliers ($12.50) L -750
13-Dec Rockets -248 vs Magic ($40.32) W -275
13-Dec Bucks -535 vs Grizzlies. ($18.69) W -920
13-Dec Kings -400 vs Knicks. ($25.00) L -401
14-Dec Raptors -330 vs Nets ($30.30) W -290
14-Dec Mavericks -350 vs Heat ($28.57) L -500
14-Dec Rockets -295 vs Pistons ($33.90) L -345
15-Dec Kings -165 vs Warriors ($60.61) W -205
15-Dec Lakers -800 vs Hawks ($12.50) W -938
15-Dec Pacers -850 vs Hornets ($11.76) W -850
16-Dec Raptors -988 vs Cavaliers ($10.12) W -879
16-Dec Thunder -230 vs Bulls ($43.48) W -215
16-Dec Heat -165 vs Grizzlies ($60.61) L -150
16-Dec Bucks -689 vs Mavericks ($14.51) L -620
18-Dec Raptors -132 vs Pistons ($75.76) W -135
18-Dec Seventysixers -410 vs Heat ($24.39) L -446
18-Dec Mavericks +115 vs Celtics ($115.00) L -150
4-Dec nets -155 vs Hawks $100 to win $64.52 W -145
5-Dec Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) L -345
5-Dec Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22) W -380
6-Dec Nets -145 vs Hornets ($68.97) W -150
6-Dec Celtics -150 vs Nuggets ($66.67) W -160
6-Dec Lakers -186 vs Trailblazers ($53.76) W -200
6-Dec Heat -525 vs Wizards ($19.05) W -515
7-Dec Mavericks -400 vs Pelicans ($25.00) W -436
7-Dec Seventysixers -900 vs Cavaliers ($11.11) W -630
7-Dec Pacers -225 vs Knicks ($44.44) W -220
7-Dec Rockets -620 vs Suns ($16.13) W -750
8-Dec Clippers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) W -484
8-Dec Lakers -730 vs Timberwolves ($13.70) W -560
8-Dec Heat -295 vs Bulls ($33.90) W -265
9-Dec Celtics -1500 vs Cavaliers ($6.67) W -1235
9-Dec Raptors -250 vs Bulls ($40.00) W -245
9-Dec Bucks -900 vs Magic ($11.11) W -1100
10-Dec Seventysixers -190 vs Nuggets ($52.63) W -215
10-Dec Heat -400 vs Hawks ($25.00) W -385
10-Dec Trailblazers -420 vs Knicks ($23.81) W -450
11-Dec Celtics -110 vs Pacers ($90.91) L -105
11-Dec Lakers -375 vs Magic ($26.67) W -447
11-Dec Rockets -850 vs Cavaliers ($11.76) W -800
11-Dec Bulls -225 vs Hawks ($44.44) W -262
11-Dec Suns -290 vs Grizzlies ($34.48) L -290
11-Dec Clippers -150 vs Raptors ($66.67) W -144
12-Dec Spurs -800 vs Cavaliers ($12.50) L -750
13-Dec Rockets -248 vs Magic ($40.32) W -275
13-Dec Bucks -535 vs Grizzlies. ($18.69) W -920
13-Dec Kings -400 vs Knicks. ($25.00) L -401
14-Dec Raptors -330 vs Nets ($30.30) W -290
14-Dec Mavericks -350 vs Heat ($28.57) L -500
14-Dec Rockets -295 vs Pistons ($33.90) L -345
15-Dec Kings -165 vs Warriors ($60.61) W -205
15-Dec Lakers -800 vs Hawks ($12.50) W -938
15-Dec Pacers -850 vs Hornets ($11.76) W -850
16-Dec Raptors -988 vs Cavaliers ($10.12) W -879
16-Dec Thunder -230 vs Bulls ($43.48) W -215
16-Dec Heat -165 vs Grizzlies ($60.61) L -150
16-Dec Bucks -689 vs Mavericks ($14.51) L -620
18-Dec Raptors -132 vs Pistons ($75.76) W -135
18-Dec Seventysixers -410 vs Heat ($24.39) L -446
18-Dec Mavericks +115 vs Celtics ($115.00) L -150
I don't know. To the naked eye, I'm not seeing any correlation between closing line and win/loss results. (Closing line is in the last column while the line I got is listed as part of the bet...)
So, to my way of thinking, out of the 43 bets I made, 19 times the line moved in a way to reflect the actual outcome of the game that was bet on. 22 times, the line moved in the wrong direction...
and do you guys try and figure out a reasonable est for the pointspread- moneyline relation ???
I dont do that, partly because Im too stupid to even think of doing it, and partly because Im too lazy to do it anyway. I just look at the number given and decide if I think team A bests team B enough times out of a hundred to justify that number. Last season in a game during the playoffs I bet the Bucks to beat the Pistons at something like -3300. My estimate after looking at killer sports data was that teams with the Pistons line won around 2 out of 100 times. So making that bet 100 times would lose 66 units for the 2 losses, and 98 units for the 98 wins, which looked like a decent bet to me...
Betting money line favorites single out has become too expensive in the last few decades. Primary reasons? Bookmaker's minuscule % holds and middlers. For example, 7 point NFL favorites were priced slightly over 2-1. The 3 point favorite was a well-kept secret.
So, to my way of thinking, out of the 43 bets I made, 19 times the line moved in a way to reflect the actual outcome of the game that was bet on. 22 times, the line moved in the wrong direction...
this is indicative of a coin toss scenario but of course this is a very small sample size. to be long term successful you need to
beat the line by more than the margin >60%ish of the time
beat the line by something >75% of the time
if you are not doing those two things you are just having fun and paying the juice.
I don't know. To the naked eye, I'm not seeing any correlation between closing line and win/loss results. (Closing line is in the last column while the line I got is listed as part of the bet...)
CLV winning is a long term thing in a few games like this you wont see shit.
what you are looking for is market confirmation AKA line moves in your direction you bet -280 it moves lower
next is enough movement to cover the margin.
Betting money line favorites single out has become too expensive in the last few decades. Primary reasons? Bookmaker's minuscule % holds and middlers. For example, 7 point NFL favorites were priced slightly over 2-1. The 3 point favorite was a well-kept secret.
Yeah, this is most likely an ill-fated expedition I have set myself upon. And Im not helping myself by being too loose with m picks...
this is indicative of a coin toss scenario but of course this is a very small sample size. to be long term successful you need to
beat the line by more than the margin >60%ish of the time
beat the line by something >75% of the time
if you are not doing those two things you are just having fun and paying the juice.
- - - Updated - - -
CLV winning is a long term thing in a few games like this you wont see shit.
what you are looking for is market confirmation AKA line moves in your direction you bet -280 it moves lower
next is enough movement to cover the margin.
OK, market confirmation is when I bet at -280, and the line moves to -320. Right? And how do you measure whether there is enough movement to cover the margin? What margin?
I used your data and split it up to save you time
what you should do is make a copy of this sheet and do your edits on there so you can keep track and nobody can touch it or see it
Comments
5-Dec Seventysixers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) L -345
5-Dec Nuggets -450 vs Knicks ($22.22) W -380
6-Dec Nets -145 vs Hornets ($68.97) W -150
6-Dec Celtics -150 vs Nuggets ($66.67) W -160
6-Dec Lakers -186 vs Trailblazers ($53.76) W -200
6-Dec Heat -525 vs Wizards ($19.05) W -515
7-Dec Mavericks -400 vs Pelicans ($25.00) W -436
7-Dec Seventysixers -900 vs Cavaliers ($11.11) W -630
7-Dec Pacers -225 vs Knicks ($44.44) W -220
7-Dec Rockets -620 vs Suns ($16.13) W -750
8-Dec Clippers -315 vs Wizards ($31.75) W -484
8-Dec Lakers -730 vs Timberwolves ($13.70) W -560
8-Dec Heat -295 vs Bulls ($33.90) W -265
9-Dec Celtics -1500 vs Cavaliers ($6.67) W -1235
9-Dec Raptors -250 vs Bulls ($40.00) W -245
9-Dec Bucks -900 vs Magic ($11.11) W -1100
10-Dec Seventysixers -190 vs Nuggets ($52.63) W -215
10-Dec Heat -400 vs Hawks ($25.00) W -385
10-Dec Trailblazers -420 vs Knicks ($23.81) W -450
11-Dec Celtics -110 vs Pacers ($90.91) L -105
11-Dec Lakers -375 vs Magic ($26.67) W -447
11-Dec Rockets -850 vs Cavaliers ($11.76) W -800
11-Dec Bulls -225 vs Hawks ($44.44) W -262
11-Dec Suns -290 vs Grizzlies ($34.48) L -290
11-Dec Clippers -150 vs Raptors ($66.67) W -144
12-Dec Spurs -800 vs Cavaliers ($12.50) L -750
13-Dec Rockets -248 vs Magic ($40.32) W -275
13-Dec Bucks -535 vs Grizzlies. ($18.69) W -920
13-Dec Kings -400 vs Knicks. ($25.00) L -401
14-Dec Raptors -330 vs Nets ($30.30) W -290
14-Dec Mavericks -350 vs Heat ($28.57) L -500
14-Dec Rockets -295 vs Pistons ($33.90) L -345
15-Dec Kings -165 vs Warriors ($60.61) W -205
15-Dec Lakers -800 vs Hawks ($12.50) W -938
15-Dec Pacers -850 vs Hornets ($11.76) W -850
16-Dec Raptors -988 vs Cavaliers ($10.12) W -879
16-Dec Thunder -230 vs Bulls ($43.48) W -215
16-Dec Heat -165 vs Grizzlies ($60.61) L -150
16-Dec Bucks -689 vs Mavericks ($14.51) L -620
18-Dec Raptors -132 vs Pistons ($75.76) W -135
18-Dec Seventysixers -410 vs Heat ($24.39) L -446
18-Dec Mavericks +115 vs Celtics ($115.00) L -150
I don't know. To the naked eye, I'm not seeing any correlation between closing line and win/loss results. (Closing line is in the last column while the line I got is listed as part of the bet...)
yup i have that as well
I dont do that, partly because Im too stupid to even think of doing it, and partly because Im too lazy to do it anyway. I just look at the number given and decide if I think team A bests team B enough times out of a hundred to justify that number. Last season in a game during the playoffs I bet the Bucks to beat the Pistons at something like -3300. My estimate after looking at killer sports data was that teams with the Pistons line won around 2 out of 100 times. So making that bet 100 times would lose 66 units for the 2 losses, and 98 units for the 98 wins, which looked like a decent bet to me...
this is indicative of a coin toss scenario but of course this is a very small sample size. to be long term successful you need to
beat the line by more than the margin >60%ish of the time
beat the line by something >75% of the time
if you are not doing those two things you are just having fun and paying the juice.
- - - Updated - - -
CLV winning is a long term thing in a few games like this you wont see shit.
what you are looking for is market confirmation AKA line moves in your direction you bet -280 it moves lower
next is enough movement to cover the margin.
Raptors -260 vs Wizards ($38.46)
Celtics -450 vs Pistons ($22.22)
Heat -550 vs Knicks ($18.18)
Nuggets -600 vs Timberwolves ($16.67)
Yeah, this is most likely an ill-fated expedition I have set myself upon. And Im not helping myself by being too loose with m picks...
OK, market confirmation is when I bet at -280, and the line moves to -320. Right? And how do you measure whether there is enough movement to cover the margin? What margin?
what you should do is make a copy of this sheet and do your edits on there so you can keep track and nobody can touch it or see it
Thats pretty cool, danshan. Thanks!
+$79.05 total winnings (avg winning per bet: +$79.05 / 47 = +$1.68 per bet)
Bulls +105 vs Pistons ($105.00)
Bucks -1000 vs Knicks ($10.00)
Clippers -240 vs Spurs ($41.67)
Rockets -380 vs Suns ($26.32)
+$262.04 total winnings (avg winning per bet: +$262.04 / 51 = +$5.14 per bet)
Celtics -1150 vs Hornets ($8.70)
+$270.74 total winnings (avg winning per bet: +$270.74 / 52 = +$5.21 per bet)
Heat -195 vs Jazz ($51.28)
+$332.02 total winnings (avg winning per bet: +$332.02 / 53 = +$6.27 per bet
Sorry, addition problem:
Record 42-11 ($100 per bet)
+$322.02 total winnings (avg winning per bet: +$322.02 / 53 = +$6.08 per bet