The last 3 picks have been winners, hopefully the good run continues today!
RECORD:
Bets won = 15
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +4.90$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Twins (at -250 or 1.40) vs Royals
This play meets the criteria of 2 betting systems, including "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:
"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
Since Kansas City has lots its past two games by scoring 0 and 1 run respectively (and they are indeed on the road with large odds), we are fading them.
First of all, thanks for the posts. So the last 3 plays have been: -3.40, -3.03, and -1.91. The first two of which have been winners, with today's play pending. It's always good to post winners, but those plays are not very palatable to your average baseball bettor. I think that's because of the natural risk/reward ratio inherent with such high priced favorites
I don't know anyone that would lay those numbers or even take the plus money, fwiw I I toss them games right out.
If you lose one of those 3-1 games you need to win 4 to cover that loss, not happening.
First of all, thanks for your feedback. I always appreciate it and it gives us a chance to deepen our knowledge!
All my bets are based on one of my 19 Betting systems, which means i don't bet with my heart. never. In the most recent days, at least two (sometimes three) systems pointed in the same direction, the favorites. My ROI when my picks are based on more than one system is almost tripled, that's why i gave away those picks anyway.
As you can see, last week i was 14-13 and still up by 3.55 Units since posting my free picks here. Given those stats, we can all agree it's hard to achieve such results without throwing some winning underdogs.
Not trying to get a better win/loss record here, just trying to maximize the profits (in units) and sometimes it means having to take a big favorite. In fact, i could have a terrible win/loss record, i wouldn't mind, as long as the profits are there.
Again, i hope you understand the way i go on with my betting systems and if you're still intrigued by those, i would be more than happy to answer more of your questions!
- - - Updated - - -
We're going after a big underdog today.
RECORD:
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +5.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
White Sox (at +237 or 3.37) vs Indians
This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #2:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.35 units from 69 bets
Since Cleveland won its previous match by a 9-run margin against a different team, we are betting against them.
if Jones pitched yesterday and Jones is an elite Ace and Frank was batting and he has a season BA of .500 over 300 at bats and a career BA of .499 against a bad team and they win 13-0 YESTERDAY
now today same team but this pitcher is 6th in a 5 man rotation and Frank is not playing
is there any value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday in today's game?
a
if Jones pitched yesterday and Jones is an elite Ace and Frank was batting and he has a season BA of .500 over 300 at bats and a career BA of .499 against a bad team and they win 13-0 YESTERDAY
now today same team but this pitcher is 6th in a 5 man rotation and Frank is not playing
is there any value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday in today's game?
a
Obviously, if Frank is out of the lineup the other team is going to be pretty stoked.
First of all, thanks for the posts. So the last 3 plays have been: -3.40, -3.03, and -1.91. The first two of which have been winners, with today's play pending. It's always good to post winners, but those plays are not very palatable to your average baseball bettor. I think that's because of the natural risk/reward ratio inherent with such high priced favorites
I understand your point. But I can't force a pick either. Yesterday there were 5 games, and only one met the criteria of my 19 betting systems (the Nationals). So obviously that was my pick of the day. Usually I try to present one whose money line is between -150 and +200, but that's not always possible. It depends what the value plays are for this given day.
You guys are unbelievably square on angles. All that matters is the angle. Everything else evens out over time and all you got left is the outperformance of the angle. Of course, you need a good sample size so we will be at this a while.
You guys are unbelievably square on angles. All that matters is the angle. Everything else evens out over time and all you got left is the outperformance of the angle. Of course, you need a good sample size so we will be at this a while.
Give me a fictitious angle because I am not sure I know what an angle is
First of all, thanks for the posts. So the last 3 plays have been: -3.40, -3.03, and -1.91. The first two of which have been winners, with today's play pending. It's always good to post winners, but those plays are not very palatable to your average baseball bettor. I think that's because of the natural risk/reward ratio inherent with such high priced favorites
Let me say I understand what your saying Bucky but I believe the days of limiting yourself to a certain price are gone. It seems everything is changing in sports. Now I know some pretty sharp guys that are playing games like this and some are parlaying 2 teams 3 teams. Regardless of what we think it's making money the figures show it's a winner. I can't tell what it is but teams out of contention playing teams in contention just seem to quit. At the bottom here's the numbers for Sept of this year for teams -200 and more.
Yes it's true you lose a -400 favorite and it's not something you'll won't forget quickly so some people have been using parlay's and doing well. Can't argue with the results. It's also not just this year I can take you back 5 years and it's the same and one of the reason's old school gamblers like myself use to quit at the end of August because in Sept playing those high price Dogs under the guise of getting "value" I use to lose any profit I made all year betting in Sept. I wish I played all the -200 this year in Sept.
SU: 76-19 (3.09, 80.0%) avg line: -282.5 / 242.8 on / against: +$2,470 / -$3,175 ROI: +9.2% / -33.4%
That's almost 25 units of Profit in a little over three weeks. That's not bad. It's not for everybody but I'll give it a go next year. I know it go against everything we were taught as gamblers betting on baseball back in the day nd you may not agree but I think you'll have to agree we must evolve with the "times they are a changin."
PS those figures are from Closing numbers so with most of those games if you were just playing the number betting them overnight would have added to your bottom line.
Let me say I understand what your saying Bucky but I believe the days of limiting yourself to a certain price are gone. It seems everything is changing in sports. Now I know some pretty sharp guys that are playing games like this and some are parlaying 2 teams 3 teams. Regardless of what we think it's making money the figures show it's a winner. I can't tell what it is but teams out of contention playing teams in contention just seem to quit. At the bottom here's the numbers for Sept of this year for teams -200 and more.
Yes it's true you lose a -400 favorite and it's not something you'll forget quickly so some people have been using parlay's and doing well. Can't argue with the results. It's also not just this year I can take you back 5 years and it's the same and one of the reason's old school gamblers like myself use to quit at the end of August because in Sept playing those high price Dogs under the guise of getting "value" I use to lose any profit I made all year betting in Sept. I wish I played all the -200 this year in Sept.
SU: 76-19 (3.09, 80.0%) avg line: -282.5 / 242.8 on / against: +$2,470 / -$3,175 ROI: +9.2% / -33.4%
That's almost 25 units of Profit in a little over three weeks. That's not bad. It's not for everybody but I'll give it a go next year. I know it go against everything we were taught as gamblers betting on baseball back in the day nd you may not agree but I think you'll have to agree we must evolve with the "times they are a changin."
PS those figures are from Closing numbers so with most of those games if you were just playing the number betting them overnight would have added to your bottom line.
Let me add that this is something to do in Sept only. But I'm going to back track it over the last 5 years month by month just to see. I can't believe it's profitable early in the year but when I have the time I will.
Forgot to add the Run Line numbers which is almost 17 units of profit
RL: 63-32 (1.59, 66.3%) avg line: -149.2 / 128.4 on / against: +$1,685 / -$2,360 ROI: +11.9% / -24.3%
it looks like from the data, they are just not pricing these super high faves high enough
-200 or higher faves have killed it over the past 3 years all season long
<tbody>
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]F and line < -200 and season > 2015[/TH]
on the other side, there are some , me included , that limit risk ,meaning its more important on how much i can lose, then how much i can win.
how to do even money to +110 do in sept ?
if Jones pitched yesterday and Jones is an elite Ace and Frank was batting and he has a season BA of .500 over 300 at bats and a career BA of .499 against a bad team and they win 13-0 YESTERDAY
now today same team but this pitcher is 6th in a 5 man rotation and Frank is not playing
is there any value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday in today's game?
a
I will try my best to explain how my system works.
Now if you're asking if i'm looking at each individual performances, no. It doesn't matter who's playing, who's pitching. Clayton Kershaw could be on the mount against a team of AA struggling hitter, if the systems point toward the AA team, i'll bet the AA team, so to speak.
But, there is value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday, because most of the systems are based on recent performances. For example, that 13-0 win would trigger the "Blowout Effect" which is a betting angle that suggests betting a team that just crushed his most recent opponent by more than 7 points.
Now we might know Frank was a big part of that win yesterday as he had 2 Homers and 6 RBIs. His absence will obviously be felt on tomorrow's lineup. But you can almost certainly take this to the bank: The bookies know that information and it's already reflected in the odds they're giving you.
So what i did was gather data from the previous years and come up with Betting systems that proved to be winners over a lond period of time, most of them going against the grain. So, i don't take time to analyze the specifics of each team, who's pitching, who's in a hitting streak. I look at the games, do they fulfill any of the systems, if so, i bet, if not, i don't.
I hope i was able to answer your questions! If it's still confusing, i'd be glad to answer any questions you may still have.
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 15
Profit = +4.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Diamondbacks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Cards
This pick is based on 2 betting angles at a time!
First: "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
St. Louis got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night and they are indeed playing on the road this afternoon.
Second: "The Big Upset" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.50. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if its money line is 2.25 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.79 units from 261 bets (ROI = 14.5%)
Arizona upset those same Cardinals yesterday at +179 odds, they are playing each other again today and the odds on the D-Backs are indeed less than +125 so we are betting them.
on the other side, there are some , me included , that limit risk ,meaning its more important on how much i can lose, then how much i can win.
how to do even money to +110 do in sept ?
If you are betting a gambling line, you are never limiting your risk.
on the other side, there are some , me included , that limit risk ,meaning its more important on how much i can lose, then how much i can win.
how to do even money to +110 do in sept ?
I'll try to answer and then I'll leave this picks thread alone. Gambling is of course a personal thing your B/R and your tolerance of risk among other things is what makes us gamble the way we do. Throwing out games because the price is to high there's nothing wrong with it. It's what you believe to be right for you.
One thing to keep in mind there's many ways to get to ballgame that maybe to high for you. Today for EX: you parlay the Indians -300 and A's -200 and the return is even money. It seems to be the rage and it's working so for some people they play it that way. Also if you like a team there's team total's that you can play. All the playoff teams are averaging over 5 runs a game some over 5.5 and that's another way of getting to a team you like at a much lower price. Also over the total 1st 5 innings. That's decisions you can make regarding a big Favorite this time of year.
This reminds me of betting the Over 1st period goals in Hockey last year with about 6 teams that were going on 18, 20 games in a row runs. Made a lot of money. There were a couple that went Under the 1st period total's like Dallas and the Champs the St.Louis Blues you bet there Under. The Books were really slow in there adjustments because you never seen anything like that and they just waited for some Variance to rear its ugly head but that really never happen.
They eventually started raising Juice at never seen before #'s on the Over but it didn't slow you down because the run kept on running. Some books actually went to 2 goals which was insane and that didn't last long so the only thing they can do is hit you with juice but it didn't bother you as long as you got there. Close to year end it started to slow up a bit but the money was made. So in short to each is own and your B/R and tolerance of risk should be you guild.
I had an unbelievable run in the prop RHE's for two years this year not so much. It's wasn't that bad but I stopped at the end of June with a very small win knowing it wasn't going anywhere but down. I'm not giving up on it and next year I'll chart and see if an adjustment or two helps out to get it back where it belongs. Working on a couple of things during the baseball off season so will see how it shakes out.
I will try my best to explain how my system works.
Now if you're asking if i'm looking at each individual performances, no. It doesn't matter who's playing, who's pitching. Clayton Kershaw could be on the mount against a team of AA struggling hitter, if the systems point toward the AA team, i'll bet the AA team, so to speak.
This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."
Pitchers meaning nothing to you? How nice. As a tout, do you claim victory when an off-pitcher doesn't fit your parameters and still wins? You haven't addressed that loophole yet.
Now we might know Frank was a big part of that win yesterday as he had 2 Homers and 6 RBIs. His absence will obviously be felt on tomorrow's lineup. But you can almost certainly take this to the bank: The bookies know that information and it's already reflected in the odds they're giving you.
This is generally a false notion among novices. It's a lazy way to put oddsmakers on a pedestal that should be reserved for the market.
Parting jab.......If my son went to Laval University and told me of an instructor who has a data-mining system to beat MLB...............I'd immediately transfer him to McGill.
Bets won = 20
Bets lost = 15
Profit = +5.51$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Angels (at +208 or 3.08) vs Astros
It's a long shot, but I'm going for it!
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
Since Houston shutout their opponents in their past two games, we are betting against them today.
Comments
thanks for posting
Exactly!
RECORD:
Bets won = 15
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +4.90$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Twins (at -250 or 1.40) vs Royals
This play meets the criteria of 2 betting systems, including "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:
"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
Since Kansas City has lots its past two games by scoring 0 and 1 run respectively (and they are indeed on the road with large odds), we are fading them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 16
Bets lost = 13
Profit = +$5.30 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Phillies (at +170 or 2.70) at Indians
This pick is based on 2 betting systems, one of them being "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #2:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: +1.35 units from 65 bets (ROI = 2.1%)
Since Cleveland won its last game by a 7-run margin and they are facing a new opponent today, we are fading them.
Have a good Friday!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 16
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +4.30$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
A's (at -340 or 1.29) vs Rangers
This pick is based on 2 different betting systems, including "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
In 2019: +13.26 units from 123 bets (ROI = 10.8%)
Since Oakland beat Texas 8-0 last night, we are betting the A's to repeat.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 17
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +4.59$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Yankees (at -303 or 1.33) vs Blue Jays
This pick is based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
In 2019: -1.33 units from 30 bets
Since Toronto just saw its 5-game winning streak snapped yesterday, we are fading them in New York.
Enjoy your Sunday!
Professor MJ
Bets won = 18
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +4.92$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Nationals (at -191 or 1.524) vs Phillies
This pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:
"Bet a home team coming off a loss when facing a road team coming off 1-2-3 straight losses. Bet only if the home team's money line is 1.667 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +32.68 units from 347 bets (ROI = 9.4%)
In 2019: -$2.48 units from 36 bets (ROI = -6.9%)
Both Philadelphia and Washington are on a 1-game losing streak and the Nats' odds are indeed smaller than 1.667, so we are betting them today.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
If you lose one of those 3-1 games you need to win 4 to cover that loss, not happening.
All my bets are based on one of my 19 Betting systems, which means i don't bet with my heart. never. In the most recent days, at least two (sometimes three) systems pointed in the same direction, the favorites. My ROI when my picks are based on more than one system is almost tripled, that's why i gave away those picks anyway.
As you can see, last week i was 14-13 and still up by 3.55 Units since posting my free picks here. Given those stats, we can all agree it's hard to achieve such results without throwing some winning underdogs.
Not trying to get a better win/loss record here, just trying to maximize the profits (in units) and sometimes it means having to take a big favorite. In fact, i could have a terrible win/loss record, i wouldn't mind, as long as the profits are there.
Again, i hope you understand the way i go on with my betting systems and if you're still intrigued by those, i would be more than happy to answer more of your questions!
- - - Updated - - -
We're going after a big underdog today.
RECORD:
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 14
Profit = +5.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
White Sox (at +237 or 3.37) vs Indians
This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #2:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against Team C, bet Team C."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +20.39 units from 590 bets (ROI = 3.5%)
In 2019: -0.35 units from 69 bets
Since Cleveland won its previous match by a 9-run margin against a different team, we are betting against them.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
here are a few can you answer these
if Jones pitched yesterday and Jones is an elite Ace and Frank was batting and he has a season BA of .500 over 300 at bats and a career BA of .499 against a bad team and they win 13-0 YESTERDAY
now today same team but this pitcher is 6th in a 5 man rotation and Frank is not playing
is there any value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday in today's game?
a
Obviously, if Frank is out of the lineup the other team is going to be pretty stoked.
I understand your point. But I can't force a pick either. Yesterday there were 5 games, and only one met the criteria of my 19 betting systems (the Nationals). So obviously that was my pick of the day. Usually I try to present one whose money line is between -150 and +200, but that's not always possible. It depends what the value plays are for this given day.
Laisse moi essayer ?a
les lanceurs comptent-ils dans votre syst?me?
Give me a fictitious angle because I am not sure I know what an angle is
Let me say I understand what your saying Bucky but I believe the days of limiting yourself to a certain price are gone. It seems everything is changing in sports. Now I know some pretty sharp guys that are playing games like this and some are parlaying 2 teams 3 teams. Regardless of what we think it's making money the figures show it's a winner. I can't tell what it is but teams out of contention playing teams in contention just seem to quit. At the bottom here's the numbers for Sept of this year for teams -200 and more.
Yes it's true you lose a -400 favorite and it's not something you'll won't forget quickly so some people have been using parlay's and doing well. Can't argue with the results. It's also not just this year I can take you back 5 years and it's the same and one of the reason's old school gamblers like myself use to quit at the end of August because in Sept playing those high price Dogs under the guise of getting "value" I use to lose any profit I made all year betting in Sept. I wish I played all the -200 this year in Sept.
SU: 76-19 (3.09, 80.0%) avg line: -282.5 / 242.8 on / against: +$2,470 / -$3,175 ROI: +9.2% / -33.4%
That's almost 25 units of Profit in a little over three weeks. That's not bad. It's not for everybody but I'll give it a go next year. I know it go against everything we were taught as gamblers betting on baseball back in the day nd you may not agree but I think you'll have to agree we must evolve with the "times they are a changin."
PS those figures are from Closing numbers so with most of those games if you were just playing the number betting them overnight would have added to your bottom line.
- - - Updated - - -
Let me add that this is something to do in Sept only. But I'm going to back track it over the last 5 years month by month just to see. I can't believe it's profitable early in the year but when I have the time I will.
RL: 63-32 (1.59, 66.3%) avg line: -149.2 / 128.4 on / against: +$1,685 / -$2,360 ROI: +11.9% / -24.3%
-200 or higher faves have killed it over the past 3 years all season long
<tbody>
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]F and line < -200 and season > 2015[/TH]
<tbody>
[TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
944-289 (2.48, 76.6%)
avg line: -252.4 / 222.9
on / against: +$23,148 / -$31,274
ROI: +7.4% / -25.3%
[TH="align: center"]RL:[/TH]
731-501 (0.98, 59.3%)
avg line: -129.7 / 112.7
on / against: +$9,043 / -$18,231
ROI: +5.6% / -14.4%
</tbody>
</tbody>
</tbody>
how to do even money to +110 do in sept ?
I will try my best to explain how my system works.
Now if you're asking if i'm looking at each individual performances, no. It doesn't matter who's playing, who's pitching. Clayton Kershaw could be on the mount against a team of AA struggling hitter, if the systems point toward the AA team, i'll bet the AA team, so to speak.
But, there is value in what Jones and Frank did yesterday, because most of the systems are based on recent performances. For example, that 13-0 win would trigger the "Blowout Effect" which is a betting angle that suggests betting a team that just crushed his most recent opponent by more than 7 points.
Now we might know Frank was a big part of that win yesterday as he had 2 Homers and 6 RBIs. His absence will obviously be felt on tomorrow's lineup. But you can almost certainly take this to the bank: The bookies know that information and it's already reflected in the odds they're giving you.
So what i did was gather data from the previous years and come up with Betting systems that proved to be winners over a lond period of time, most of them going against the grain. So, i don't take time to analyze the specifics of each team, who's pitching, who's in a hitting streak. I look at the games, do they fulfill any of the systems, if so, i bet, if not, i don't.
I hope i was able to answer your questions! If it's still confusing, i'd be glad to answer any questions you may still have.
Bets won = 19
Bets lost = 15
Profit = +4.44$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Diamondbacks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Cards
This pick is based on 2 betting angles at a time!
First: "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle:
"Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game (so you bet the HOME team)."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +22.06 units from 281 bets (ROI = 7.9%)
St. Louis got its 6-game winning streak snapped last night and they are indeed playing on the road this afternoon.
Second: "The Big Upset" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.50. If they meet again the next day, bet Team A if its money line is 2.25 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.79 units from 261 bets (ROI = 14.5%)
Arizona upset those same Cardinals yesterday at +179 odds, they are playing each other again today and the odds on the D-Backs are indeed less than +125 so we are betting them.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
ProfessorMJ has given you a lot of them. Believing they are real will take some proving and that is what ProfessorMJ is out to prove. So far, so good.
If you are betting a gambling line, you are never limiting your risk.
I'll try to answer and then I'll leave this picks thread alone. Gambling is of course a personal thing your B/R and your tolerance of risk among other things is what makes us gamble the way we do. Throwing out games because the price is to high there's nothing wrong with it. It's what you believe to be right for you.
One thing to keep in mind there's many ways to get to ballgame that maybe to high for you. Today for EX: you parlay the Indians -300 and A's -200 and the return is even money. It seems to be the rage and it's working so for some people they play it that way. Also if you like a team there's team total's that you can play. All the playoff teams are averaging over 5 runs a game some over 5.5 and that's another way of getting to a team you like at a much lower price. Also over the total 1st 5 innings. That's decisions you can make regarding a big Favorite this time of year.
This reminds me of betting the Over 1st period goals in Hockey last year with about 6 teams that were going on 18, 20 games in a row runs. Made a lot of money. There were a couple that went Under the 1st period total's like Dallas and the Champs the St.Louis Blues you bet there Under. The Books were really slow in there adjustments because you never seen anything like that and they just waited for some Variance to rear its ugly head but that really never happen.
They eventually started raising Juice at never seen before #'s on the Over but it didn't slow you down because the run kept on running. Some books actually went to 2 goals which was insane and that didn't last long so the only thing they can do is hit you with juice but it didn't bother you as long as you got there. Close to year end it started to slow up a bit but the money was made. So in short to each is own and your B/R and tolerance of risk should be you guild.
I had an unbelievable run in the prop RHE's for two years this year not so much. It's wasn't that bad but I stopped at the end of June with a very small win knowing it wasn't going anywhere but down. I'm not giving up on it and next year I'll chart and see if an adjustment or two helps out to get it back where it belongs. Working on a couple of things during the baseball off season so will see how it shakes out.
Parting jab.......If my son went to Laval University and told me of an instructor who has a data-mining system to beat MLB...............I'd immediately transfer him to McGill.
Bets won = 20
Bets lost = 15
Profit = +5.51$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle):
Angels (at +208 or 3.08) vs Astros
It's a long shot, but I'm going for it!
This pick is based on "The Stingy Pitchers" betting angle:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while allowing just 0 or 1 run in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less."
PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +26.54 units from 375 bets (ROI = 7.1%)
Since Houston shutout their opponents in their past two games, we are betting against them today.
Best of luck!