Team A needs to win to advance to playoffs
Team B is trying to lose so they can get the #1 pick
Team A is at home and on a 10 game win streak
Team B is on a 4 game skid and has lost last 10 road games by avg of 25 points
Team B best player is out for this game injured
can you bet Team B +450 just because your model says it should be +330 and that includes modeling the things above that matter?
I would say >5000 and realistically probably over 10000 bets. and important point NOT paper bets, these got to be real bets placed for real money, because getting bets down is as important as picking winners!
see yourself how easy it is to win on a 1000 game set http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/
set the number of sectors to 2 and put spins at 1000 and see you win break even about 4 out of 10 times, now try the same thing at 5000 and you see its way more stable now do 10000 and see its super stable, winning record after 500-1000 games is not worthy of even looking at seriously unless you crush the line >65% of the time
LOL. CLV will tell you if you have skill with just a couple of hundreds bets. If you are beating the line 60% of the time, you are going to win. Most people should not make 10,000 bets lifetime. May you die thinking you are a winner and not be one.
I did your spinner thing and hit 53.6% once and came close to breaking even twice. It is murder winning at even 1,000 bets.
As for CLV, we forecasted you were not a winner on CLV on NBA in a very short amount of time and did it again early this year. You can't fool CLV very easily. Those line moves are murder.
yeah but in ten rolls you will see it is very easily to think you are a winner and really are just lucky! if you do it at 5k or 10k you can see its nearly impossible to be lucky
yeah but in ten rolls you will see it is very easily to think you are a winner and really are just lucky! if you do it at 5k or 10k you can see its nearly impossible to be lucky
It can happen. But if you make 1000 bets and win 53.6% of the time, your CLV is most likely going to reflect coinflip bets. Those lines moving the wrong way are going to happen regularly.
Because CLV is a better indication of value than actual results in the short term. Actual results are a better indication of value in the long term. The early bird gets the worm. You are not going to have 1-point line moves unless you are up and at it and pounding away successfully with the big boys. And your positive line moves are not going to last until game time if you've got the wrong side. You find that out pretty fast.
i think they kind of go together in the long term
I doubt many long term winners do not have line value
I doubt many long term losers have line value
true short term CLV is best
long term I would want both
i think they kind of go together in the long term
I doubt many long term winners do not have line value
I doubt many long term losers have line value
true short term CLV is best
long term I would want both
Yes. A guy that is winning with luck never stops to consider if he is winning with luck. A person that is sharp is always considering whether or not things played out like they expected. If things are not playing out the way you expected, you know you are in for trouble. So people are always watching the lines and how they move and what their opinion is of the move. Because they do, they always have a good idea of how sharp they are.
That is why it is not really possible for a person that is sharp to not realize they have lost it. The person that wins without being sharp is not analytical enough to consider it.
That is why your bet with that tennis guy was dangerous. A guy with that much experience knows how good he is if he is really sharp.
Yes. A guy that is winning with luck never stops to consider if he is winning with luck. A person that is sharp is always considering whether or not things played out like they expected. If things are not playing out the way you expected, you know you are in for trouble. So people are always watching the lines and how they move and what their opinion is of the move. Because they do, they always have a good idea of how sharp they are.
That is why it is not really possible for a person that is sharp to not realize they have lost it. The person that wins without being sharp is not analytical enough to consider it.
That is why your bet with that tennis guy was dangerous. A guy with that much experience knows how good he is if he is really sharp.
well again he proved everything I believe is wrong. I am not sure if he is an anomaly or is that good, the results seem to say he is just that good. I talked to Joseph B about the guy for hours and we both could not come up with anything that justified the results other than the results themselves.
well again he proved everything I believe is wrong. I am not sure if he is an anomaly or is that good, the results seem to say he is just that good. I talked to Joseph B about the guy for hours and we both could not come up with anything that justified the results other than the results themselves.
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well that is because you are counting above 50 as good and below 50 as bad
but its the swing that matters
45.9 is the same 54.1
Yes, but 1000 bets is so significant that it is very rare that you can turn a profit. It is not rare enough that it does not happen occasionally. However, there is zero chance of any bankroll management in these scenarios and it all goes to hell faster than ever imagined. A person that has a nice lucky swing is going to get completely destroyed with overconfidence and negative variance in no time flat.
It's fine to point these things out but they are always lost on anyone that would apply to.
Well, you don't need 10,000 bets to find out if you are sharp or not. It is not hard to find out if you are sharp and it is not hard to find out if a poster is sharp. You just watch them work.
I like them Jets only difference really is the Fever game, I dont see them being the favorite here
<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">sea -2.51es for 7/12
ind -0.61 min -3.46 conn 4.23 chi -3.41 sea -2.51</body>
Comments
last game regular season
Team A needs to win to advance to playoffs
Team B is trying to lose so they can get the #1 pick
Team A is at home and on a 10 game win streak
Team B is on a 4 game skid and has lost last 10 road games by avg of 25 points
Team B best player is out for this game injured
can you bet Team B +450 just because your model says it should be +330 and that includes modeling the things above that matter?
LOL. CLV will tell you if you have skill with just a couple of hundreds bets. If you are beating the line 60% of the time, you are going to win. Most people should not make 10,000 bets lifetime. May you die thinking you are a winner and not be one.
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since I started in the volume cult. I know a single season of one sport is just not indicative of long term skill
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here is one stretch of recent bets to show you proof of how a few bets mean nothing
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 71px"><col width="44"><col width="52"></colgroup><tbody>
6/9 9:30
W
-244
6/9 13:04
L
158
6/9 13:04
L
117
6/9 13:04
W
-133
6/9 13:04
L
114
6/9 13:05
L
102
6/9 13:05
L
102
6/9 13:05
L
119
6/9 13:09
L
-125
6/9 13:09
L
211
6/9 13:09
W
-114
6/9 13:10
W
118
6/9 14:09
L
-164
6/9 14:09
W
-312
6/9 14:09
L
-108
6/9 14:10
L
-112
6/9 14:14
L
-132
6/9 16:04
L
142
6/9 16:09
L
125
6/9 16:09
L
171
6/9 16:10
L
185
6/10 14:45
L
-179
6/10 17:45
L
100
6/10 19:00
L
213
6/10 19:09
W
-278
6/10 19:09
W
143
6/10 19:09
P
216
6/10 19:09
L
136
6/10 19:09
L
106
6/10 19:09
L
220
6/10 19:09
W
-108
6/10 19:10
L
-244
6/10 19:10
W
223
6/10 19:10
W
-130
6/10 19:10
L
110
6/10 19:10
L
-111
6/10 19:10
W
100
6/10 19:10
L
210
6/10 19:20
W
-143
6/10 19:20
W
-143
6/10 19:29
W
123
6/10 19:29
W
123
6/10 19:30
L
147
6/10 19:30
L
-128
6/10 20:09
L
129
6/10 20:10
W
-143
6/10 20:10
W
-143
6/10 20:40
W
-128
6/10 20:40
L
118
6/10 21:11
L
108
6/10 21:11
L
108
6/10 21:11
W
120
6/10 21:11
W
-104
6/10 21:11
W
-104
6/10 21:11
W
120
6/11 5:30
W
-114
6/11 7:45
L
160
6/11 10:16
L
-133
6/11 19:04
L
-114
6/11 19:05
L
127
6/11 19:05
W
147
6/11 19:05
W
-110
6/11 19:05
W
-110
6/11 19:08
L
-154
6/11 19:08
L
-120
6/11 19:09
L
-114
6/11 19:09
L
-175
6/11 19:10
L
106
6/11 19:10
W
-114
6/11 19:10
W
-114
6/11 19:19
L
131
6/11 20:09
L
-125
6/11 20:10
W
-110
6/11 20:10
W
-110
6/11 20:10
L
-116
6/11 20:10
L
106
6/11 20:14
L
-130
6/11 20:39
L
-114
6/11 21:45
L
-152
6/12 11:45
L
164
6/12 13:09
L
-109
6/12 13:09
L
-137
6/12 15:09
W
-135
6/12 15:09
W
-111
6/12 15:09
L
112
6/12 15:09
W
213
6/12 16:04
P
-119
6/12 16:05
L
150
6/12 16:05
L
112
6/12 16:05
W
-164
6/12 19:04
W
123
6/12 19:04
W
112
6/12 19:05
L
-120
6/12 19:19
L
136
6/12 19:19
W
-156
6/12 20:09
W
108
6/12 20:10
L
-101
6/12 20:23
L
-172
6/12 20:23
L
-185
6/12 21:44
L
104
</tbody>
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deduct <>2% margin and avg line value on those bets was 2.04%
As for CLV, we forecasted you were not a winner on CLV on NBA in a very short amount of time and did it again early this year. You can't fool CLV very easily. Those line moves are murder.
It can happen. But if you make 1000 bets and win 53.6% of the time, your CLV is most likely going to reflect coinflip bets. Those lines moving the wrong way are going to happen regularly.
Because CLV is a better indication of value than actual results in the short term. Actual results are a better indication of value in the long term. The early bird gets the worm. You are not going to have 1-point line moves unless you are up and at it and pounding away successfully with the big boys. And your positive line moves are not going to last until game time if you've got the wrong side. You find that out pretty fast.
I doubt many long term winners do not have line value
I doubt many long term losers have line value
true short term CLV is best
long term I would want both
Yes. A guy that is winning with luck never stops to consider if he is winning with luck. A person that is sharp is always considering whether or not things played out like they expected. If things are not playing out the way you expected, you know you are in for trouble. So people are always watching the lines and how they move and what their opinion is of the move. Because they do, they always have a good idea of how sharp they are.
That is why it is not really possible for a person that is sharp to not realize they have lost it. The person that wins without being sharp is not analytical enough to consider it.
That is why your bet with that tennis guy was dangerous. A guy with that much experience knows how good he is if he is really sharp.
52.7
48.7
49.8
51.9
49.9
45.9
48.5
49.2
50.3
49.2
those scenarios all show so much variance, you look like a genuis in a couple and in a couple you look clueless and its just dumb luck
No, you barely broke even one time.
well again he proved everything I believe is wrong. I am not sure if he is an anomaly or is that good, the results seem to say he is just that good. I talked to Joseph B about the guy for hours and we both could not come up with anything that justified the results other than the results themselves.
- - - Updated - - -
well that is because you are counting above 50 as good and below 50 as bad
but its the swing that matters
45.9 is the same 54.1
Yes, but 1000 bets is so significant that it is very rare that you can turn a profit. It is not rare enough that it does not happen occasionally. However, there is zero chance of any bankroll management in these scenarios and it all goes to hell faster than ever imagined. A person that has a nice lucky swing is going to get completely destroyed with overconfidence and negative variance in no time flat.
It's fine to point these things out but they are always lost on anyone that would apply to.
Well, you don't need 10,000 bets to find out if you are sharp or not. It is not hard to find out if you are sharp and it is not hard to find out if a poster is sharp. You just watch them work.
It is easy to spot a skilled bettor. The line moves their way. That is why people follow your WNBA threads. It did not take any time at all.
even if I had great line value on most bets, most people would stop tailing right away if they started to lose
Not on this site. Everybody thought you were a complete moron and then they got a look at your WNBA after a few bets and your thread was popping.
<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">Lin</body>Lines for 7/12
ind -0.61
min -3.46
conn 4.23
chi -3.41
I like them Jets only difference really is the Fever game, I dont see them being the favorite here
<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">sea -2.51es for 7/12
ind -0.61
min -3.46
conn 4.23
chi -3.41
sea -2.51</body>