say you are skilled and your spoils come from skill, how do you know when your method or model lost its effectiveness before you are bankrupt?
I dont know. I might well go bankrupt. In my favor is that I am kind of an antsy, cowardly guy, and any losing trend will set me on high alert and cause me to consider tweaking/reversing directions.
I dont know. I might well go bankrupt. In my favor is that I am kind of an antsy, cowardly guy, and any losing trend will set me on high alert and cause me to consider tweaking/reversing directions.
maybe not perfect but I really like this
example
say total is 160 pre game so basically 80 and 80 per half
lets say the teams go nuts and score 100 in the 1st half
so now we got 100 scored 1st half and lots of people say oh they are shooting great no defense whatever and say over 180 is a steal, 2 things happen, 1 not much volume, 2 people can bet that up and over because they think the 1st half is indicative of what the 2nd half will do
pre game 160
scored 100 and should get 80 more so current live is like 180
and people bet that over so now its over 180 -125-135 or so
so now you get 180 at +115 or +120 and you now basically have a coin flip at +115 or +120 that is a winning position
this is a ton of assumptions and not a real scenario but just to express the idea
hope it made sense
I tend to shy away from totals but yeah, so for me my lean in that scenario would be to bet the under on the 180 to be more in line with the original 160 total. But not until I got a little more granular and figured out why the defense was bad or why the shooting was good. In the nba there are a lot of dominant teams trying to see how little effort they can put out during the first 2 or 3 quarters of the game against a dog meat team while still winning in the end. Is that why the defense was so bad and the shooting was so good in the first half?
rook , am curious , am going to go back and see what i had on that game ..
You didnt make a call on the game in your thread, but Im sure you made a line for it. But your nba thread calls are still another thing I factor in for both pre-game and in-game betting. Then theres off season goof-around betting. When I am in Nevada I support my craps habit by tailing jets96 mlb calls and danshan WNBA calls. I dont know enough to do anything but blind tail in mlb and WNBA...
so rook, my line on that clipper/laker game was clippers -1.37 , game opened at lakers -3.5 ,closed at -4.
That's 5.37 off my line and a clear no bet for me , am thinking that normal folks dont break down what teams do on back to back nights and give the rested team to much credit , i have many subsets to look back on and even though the clippers did win that game, there were some subsets that told me it still wasn't worth putting my money on.
the idea for me is less that and more the getting a coin flip at +money
Thats another probably huge mistake I make. Just like I try to bet games where one or 2 points spread shift makes little difference to me, I also make the mistake of paying too little attention to the juice. Lots of times I pay large juice simply because I feel so sure of the outcome. I seem to be getting better about that, though...
Heres a question: Pistons vs Bucks in the playoffs, first game. Milwaukee is serious about this game. Detroit is missing almost all its firepower, including Blake Griffin. The money line is something like Milwaukee -3400. Is it a good bet, odd-wise to take the Bucks moneyline?
well if history means anything , i historical have had monster 2nd haves in mlb, one year posting on SSB i think i was down close to 20 units the first half and finished up 35 units. We shall see what happens, am up a handful this year and betting way too many favorites for me ,way too many, am normally a dog better in everything esp nba.
Thats another probably huge mistake I make. Just like I try to bet games where one or 2 points spread shift makes little difference to me, I also make the mistake of paying too little attention to the juice. Lots of times I pay large juice simply because I feel so sure of the outcome. I seem to be getting better about that, though...
Heres a question: Pistons vs Bucks in the playoffs, first game. Milwaukee is serious about this game. Detroit is missing almost all its firepower, including Blake Griffin. The money line is something like Milwaukee -3400. Is it a good bet, odd-wise to take the Bucks moneyline?
those scenarios of huge odds are a little tricky, you have to understand those are not your typical 1 to 2% of bankroll scenarios first off and you have to understand that one loss can mean a long time to get back on track with those. I personally am not willing to put up enough on that to make the win worth the effort, so I would stay away from it
so rook, my line on that clipper/laker game was clippers -1.37 , game opened at lakers -3.5 ,closed at -4.
That's 5.37 off my line and a clear no bet for me , am thinking that normal folks dont break down what teams do on back to back nights and give the rested team to much credit , i have many subsets to look back on and even though the clippers did win that game, there were some subsets that told me it still wasn't worth putting my money on.
Im not sure, but though LeBron was playing, he might have already been showing some signs of significant wear and tear. There were probably still some residual effects of the mid-season trades where Pelinka basically tried to ship the entire young Lakers crew off to New Orleans for Anthony Davis. And the Clippers had a total chip on their shoulders about beating the Lakers. But most cappers arent going to be looking farther than whether Lebron was playing or not, and certainly wouldnt be attaching numbers to the fact that Kyle Kuzmas feelings were hurt. Or that Patrick Beverly was completely committed to winning that game...
Rook , your right , I have no clue about players , I have a friend who loves hockey, knows every team and every player on their 4th lines....when i really like a hockey game, i dont model hockey but i do know key stats to look at and have a few systems that have worked over the years but basically i just call him and say freddy what you think about the rangers tonight , he will talk to me for 5 minutes telling how this guy is hurt and its going to hurt the d and on and on. He is basically gambling and doesnt know it.
If i knew all that and had the clippers slight favorites i wouldve put some cash on it myself.
Winning gamblers get into gambling because they have confidence they can beat the line and they like the game.
.
Im not sure if you mean winning gamblers like the game of gambling itself, but for me, I literally love the game of nba basketball. If my winning isnt just a temporary spate of good luck, then it would most likely be because I follow a lot of players and teams very closely. That can get tedious, and I wouldnt be able to suffer through that much tediousness if some other venue was involved. But it is livable if you really enjoy the game.
its heartbreaking when you see games you beat the line and just lose but the reality is the line value will come even when it is so hard to see in losses
Im not sure if you mean winning gamblers like the game of gambling itself, but for me, I literally love the game of nba basketball. If my winning isnt just a temporary spate of good luck, then it would most likely be because I follow a lot of players and teams very closely. That can get tedious, and I wouldnt be able to suffer through that much tediousness if some other venue was involved. But it is livable if you really enjoy the game.
Yes, I mean the analysis of gambling. If you are not in it because you don't just like thinking about it, you are probably not going to win. The tediousness is what it is all about. That is why there are few winners. The winners are psychos. If the average gambler knew what it took to win, they would quit on the spot.
Man I love the game, I love a brand new spreadsheet with nothing on it and a tab with 100 ideas and I just start eliminating them as not mattering one by one. I live on spreadsheets! I love this game, its my passion!
Yes, I mean the analysis of gambling. If you are not in it because you don't just like thinking about it, you are probably not going to win. The tediousness is what it is all about. That is why there are few winners. The winners are psychos. If the average gambler knew what it took to win, they would quit on the spot.
I agree. Its paradoxical that I was lured into this endeavor by the thrill of the gamble and the prospect of easy money. But I was never able to win anything until I started working hard and trying to avoid the thrill of the gamble.
Man I love the game, I love a brand new spreadsheet with nothing on it and a tab with 100 ideas and I just start eliminating them as not mattering one by one. I live on spreadsheets! I love this game, its my passion!
Is what you do now a continuation of what you used to do in financial markets, or is it something totally different? Did you feel any of the same passion in your previous work?
Man I love the game, I love a brand new spreadsheet with nothing on it and a tab with 100 ideas and I just start eliminating them as not mattering one by one. I live on spreadsheets! I love this game, its my passion!
Yes, you have what it takes to win. Your problem is that you want to win at the hardest stuff. If you focused on other stuff, you would probably be a professional.
I just joined a new cult, this cult's thing is volume. so now I am on the "justice for Volume" cardboard sign. I bet tennis and soccer and of course all US major sports
And if you do win, theres nothing anybody can say or do to take that away from you. (Though I suspect its not really that impossible to win.)
to win long term anything significant it is really difficult.
I keep hearing about all these winners but I have met very few long term winners and even fewer I think will continue to win. I think regulation is going to keep growing and I think it will just get harder and harder with limits and books banning players.
in the US I really do not see how someone can 100% legally win betting sports. I use sites to bet that are not "legal" in the US and if you want to talk about illegal activities, there are a zillion illegal ways to make money.
think about it what is the best price a US 100%legal bettor can get on the Rangers game and even if he gets a good price how much can he get down? and if he is a long term winner, how long can he bet at those books that will accept his legal US bet
to win long term anything significant it is really difficult.
I keep hearing about all these winners but I have met very few long term winners and even fewer I think will continue to win. I think regulation is going to keep growing and I think it will just get harder and harder with limits and books banning players.
in the US I really do not see how someone can 100% legally win betting sports. I use sites to bet that are not "legal" in the US and if you want to talk about illegal activities, there are a zillion illegal ways to make money.
think about it what is the best price a US 100%legal bettor can get on the Rangers game and even if he gets a good price how much can he get down? and if he is a long term winner, how long can he bet at those books that will accept his legal US bet
Almost none of the people that you hear about winning are betting professional sports.
college football and college basketball. Baseball is probably the only professional sport that someone can really expect to win at because of the favorable odds and huge amount of handicapping opportunities.
college football and college basketball. Baseball is probably the only professional sport that someone can really expect to win at because of the favorable odds and huge amount of handicapping opportunities.
yeah I will look at College stuff moving forward just because of the volume
to win long term anything significant it is really difficult.
I keep hearing about all these winners but I have met very few long term winners and even fewer I think will continue to win. I think regulation is going to keep growing and I think it will just get harder and harder with limits and books banning players.
in the US I really do not see how someone can 100% legally win betting sports. I use sites to bet that are not "legal" in the US and if you want to talk about illegal activities, there are a zillion illegal ways to make money.
think about it what is the best price a US 100%legal bettor can get on the Rangers game and even if he gets a good price how much can he get down? and if he is a long term winner, how long can he bet at those books that will accept his legal US bet
OK, can you give me a ballpark estimation of what amount of time constitutes long term?
I would say >5000 and realistically probably over 10000 bets. and important point NOT paper bets, these got to be real bets placed for real money, because getting bets down is as important as picking winners!
see yourself how easy it is to win on a 1000 game set http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/
set the number of sectors to 2 and put spins at 1000 and see you win break even about 4 out of 10 times, now try the same thing at 5000 and you see its way more stable now do 10000 and see its super stable, winning record after 500-1000 games is not worthy of even looking at seriously unless you crush the line >65% of the time
Comments
I dont know. I might well go bankrupt. In my favor is that I am kind of an antsy, cowardly guy, and any losing trend will set me on high alert and cause me to consider tweaking/reversing directions.
trust me I feel that way on every possession!
I tend to shy away from totals but yeah, so for me my lean in that scenario would be to bet the under on the 180 to be more in line with the original 160 total. But not until I got a little more granular and figured out why the defense was bad or why the shooting was good. In the nba there are a lot of dominant teams trying to see how little effort they can put out during the first 2 or 3 quarters of the game against a dog meat team while still winning in the end. Is that why the defense was so bad and the shooting was so good in the first half?
You didnt make a call on the game in your thread, but Im sure you made a line for it. But your nba thread calls are still another thing I factor in for both pre-game and in-game betting. Then theres off season goof-around betting. When I am in Nevada I support my craps habit by tailing jets96 mlb calls and danshan WNBA calls. I dont know enough to do anything but blind tail in mlb and WNBA...
That's 5.37 off my line and a clear no bet for me , am thinking that normal folks dont break down what teams do on back to back nights and give the rested team to much credit , i have many subsets to look back on and even though the clippers did win that game, there were some subsets that told me it still wasn't worth putting my money on.
Thats another probably huge mistake I make. Just like I try to bet games where one or 2 points spread shift makes little difference to me, I also make the mistake of paying too little attention to the juice. Lots of times I pay large juice simply because I feel so sure of the outcome. I seem to be getting better about that, though...
Heres a question: Pistons vs Bucks in the playoffs, first game. Milwaukee is serious about this game. Detroit is missing almost all its firepower, including Blake Griffin. The money line is something like Milwaukee -3400. Is it a good bet, odd-wise to take the Bucks moneyline?
those scenarios of huge odds are a little tricky, you have to understand those are not your typical 1 to 2% of bankroll scenarios first off and you have to understand that one loss can mean a long time to get back on track with those. I personally am not willing to put up enough on that to make the win worth the effort, so I would stay away from it
Im not sure, but though LeBron was playing, he might have already been showing some signs of significant wear and tear. There were probably still some residual effects of the mid-season trades where Pelinka basically tried to ship the entire young Lakers crew off to New Orleans for Anthony Davis. And the Clippers had a total chip on their shoulders about beating the Lakers. But most cappers arent going to be looking farther than whether Lebron was playing or not, and certainly wouldnt be attaching numbers to the fact that Kyle Kuzmas feelings were hurt. Or that Patrick Beverly was completely committed to winning that game...
If i knew all that and had the clippers slight favorites i wouldve put some cash on it myself.
Im not sure if you mean winning gamblers like the game of gambling itself, but for me, I literally love the game of nba basketball. If my winning isnt just a temporary spate of good luck, then it would most likely be because I follow a lot of players and teams very closely. That can get tedious, and I wouldnt be able to suffer through that much tediousness if some other venue was involved. But it is livable if you really enjoy the game.
Yes, I mean the analysis of gambling. If you are not in it because you don't just like thinking about it, you are probably not going to win. The tediousness is what it is all about. That is why there are few winners. The winners are psychos. If the average gambler knew what it took to win, they would quit on the spot.
I agree. Its paradoxical that I was lured into this endeavor by the thrill of the gamble and the prospect of easy money. But I was never able to win anything until I started working hard and trying to avoid the thrill of the gamble.
Is what you do now a continuation of what you used to do in financial markets, or is it something totally different? Did you feel any of the same passion in your previous work?
Yes, you have what it takes to win. Your problem is that you want to win at the hardest stuff. If you focused on other stuff, you would probably be a professional.
And if you do win, theres nothing anybody can say or do to take that away from you. (Though I suspect its not really that impossible to win.)
- - - Updated - - -
today's bets so far just to give you an idea
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 213px"></colgroup><tbody>
ON Natalia Vikhlyantseva
AGAINST Mona Barthel
AGAINST Mona Barthel
ON Jozef Kovalik
AGAINST N Mahut / E Roger-Vasselin
ON Elina Svitolina
AGAINST Over 22
AGAINST Elina Svitolina +4
AGAINST Elina Svitolina +3.5
AGAINST Elina Svitolina
AGAINST Elina Svitolina (-1.5 Sets)
ON Fiona Ferro -4
AGAINST Over 2.25
AGAINST Gianluigi Quinzi
AGAINST Gianluigi Quinzi
ON Serena Williams (-1.5 Sets)
AGAINST Serena Williams (-1.5 Sets)
ON Serena Williams (+1.5 Sets)
ON Serena Williams -6
ON Over 20
ON Serena Williams
ON Serena Williams -4.5
AGAINST Ventspils
ON N Melichar / B Soares
AGAINST Trans Narva (n)
AGAINST SCR Altach +1.25
AGAINST Cote d'Ivoire +0
</tbody>
I keep hearing about all these winners but I have met very few long term winners and even fewer I think will continue to win. I think regulation is going to keep growing and I think it will just get harder and harder with limits and books banning players.
in the US I really do not see how someone can 100% legally win betting sports. I use sites to bet that are not "legal" in the US and if you want to talk about illegal activities, there are a zillion illegal ways to make money.
think about it what is the best price a US 100%legal bettor can get on the Rangers game and even if he gets a good price how much can he get down? and if he is a long term winner, how long can he bet at those books that will accept his legal US bet
Almost none of the people that you hear about winning are betting professional sports.
college football and college basketball. Baseball is probably the only professional sport that someone can really expect to win at because of the favorable odds and huge amount of handicapping opportunities.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
7/12
Los
Sparks
-3.5
7/12
Indi
Fever
154
7/12
Minn
Lynx
-2
7/12
Atla
Dream
151
7/12
Phoe
Mercury
153.5
7/12
Conn
Sun
-4
7/12
New
Liberty
161
7/12
Chic
Sky
-5
7/12
Dall
Wings
145.5
7/12
Seat
Storm
-8
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
yeah I will look at College stuff moving forward just because of the volume
OK, can you give me a ballpark estimation of what amount of time constitutes long term?
see yourself how easy it is to win on a 1000 game set
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/
set the number of sectors to 2 and put spins at 1000 and see you win break even about 4 out of 10 times, now try the same thing at 5000 and you see its way more stable now do 10000 and see its super stable, winning record after 500-1000 games is not worthy of even looking at seriously unless you crush the line >65% of the time