The Astros destroy the four seam range that Bundy sits at. I was going to play some hitters, but because many Astros struggle with the slider, I think this is the most +EV way to attack this game
Drew Smyly o15.5 outs (-104) 1.04u
The under is (-127) and is definitely the more likely side given all the righties, but I believe that Kapler will be looking for an excuse to not go to the bullpen too early, given that Velasquez and Arrieta pitch the next two games of the series.
Plus, I think the Phillies play well offensively today, which means Smyly is more likely to be able to bunt when he's at the dish.
Comments
Bryce Harper u1.5 TB (-142) 1.42u
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Overall
170 - 127 +27.14u
Miles Mikolas o17.5 outs (-124) 1.24u
Jhoulys Chacin o15.5 outs (-115) 1.15u
Tyler Beede o2.5 earned runs (-135) 1.35u
Masahiro Tanaka o17.5 outs (-144) 1.44u
You would think that a guy who throws a billion sliders might find his command every once in a while when facing a righty heavy lineup.
I think it's the pitching outs I need to stop with. He just wastes too many damn pitches.
6/17 2-2 -0.50u
Overall 172-129 +26.64u
Don't get discouraged. This guy Chacin has me baffled also. He pitched a quality game here against the Padres. His H/A dichotomy says it all.
Sorry everyone. Needed some time off to focus on day job
Steven Brault u16.5 outs (-131) 1.31u
Yamamoto has been on a roll, but I know my Phillies well. His velocity range is one that we tend to do quite well against.
Add in the fact that we often work the count, and I don't see Yamamoto going a full six Innings here
Anytime you feel surprised by getting + money, you have to take it
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Reds/Brewers first inning run YES (-109) 1.09u
174-131 +26.67u
CC Sabathia o15.5 outs (+119) 0.84u
Eduardo Rodriguez o6.5 Ks (Even) 1u
More coming
Freddy Galvis o1.5 TB (+128) 0.78u
Rowdy Tellez UNDER 0.5 TB (+130) 0.77u
Didi Gregorius o1.5 TB (+116) 0.86u
Gleyber Torres o1.5 TB (+130) 0.77u
I love all Yankees hitters today but need to be selective because Aaron Sanchez has a massive walk rate.
Yankees score first (-111) 1.11u
Hell of a night especially for how many + numbers I laid. (And the other side of the Albies bet had the much heavier juice.
Overall 181-134 +30.79u
Players must start for bet to be official
Hunter Dozier o1.5 TB (+107) 0.93u
Hunter Dozier will hit a HR - YES (+304) 0.33u
The Bieber strikeouts prop is tempting to go under on, (7.5, at -142) but two guys alone will almost certainly give him two each.
Shane Bieber o18.5 outs (EVEN) 1u
Humbero Arteaga u0.5 TB (+132) 0.76u
Jay Bruce o1.5 TB (-115) 1.15u
Phillies TT o5.5 (-109) 1.09u
Robinson Cano u1.5 TB (-146) 1.46u
Hunter Renfroe o1.5 TB (-128) 1.28u
Manny Machado o1.5 TB (-129) 1.29u
Franmil Reyes o1.5 TB (-109) 1.09u
Logan Allen o16.5 outs (-113) 1.13u
Xander Bogaerts u1.5 TB (-122) 1.22u
6-10 -4.97u
Overall 187-144 +25.82u
Shane Bieber u18.5 outs (-160) 1.60u
Shane Bieber o2.5 ER (+102) 0.98u
Overall 187 -146 +23.24u
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Shane Bieber Third Time Through the Order:
2018: .319/.346/.563 (17 XBH), .382 wOBA, 22.1% K%, 3.9% BB%, 6.75 ERA, 127 TBF
2019: .191/.226/.336 (8 XBH), .239 wOBA, 32.5% K%, 4.3% BB%, 3.86 ERA, 117 TBF
Scott Kingery o1.5 TB (-116) 1.16u
Tommy Pham o1.5 TB (+129) 0.78u
Overall 189-146 +25.24u
Rhys Hoskins o1.5 TB (+123) 0.81u
Overall 189-147 +24.57u
Phillies score first (-141) 1.41u
Rhys Hoskins hits a HR (YES) (+278) 0.36u
Mike Leake u18.5 outs (-195) 1.95u
Overall 2019 season to date
191-148 +26.21u
Popping the hood today.
Dylan Bundy o3.5 ER (+123) 0.81u
The Astros destroy the four seam range that Bundy sits at. I was going to play some hitters, but because many Astros struggle with the slider, I think this is the most +EV way to attack this game
Drew Smyly o15.5 outs (-104) 1.04u
The under is (-127) and is definitely the more likely side given all the righties, but I believe that Kapler will be looking for an excuse to not go to the bullpen too early, given that Velasquez and Arrieta pitch the next two games of the series.
Plus, I think the Phillies play well offensively today, which means Smyly is more likely to be able to bunt when he's at the dish.
Think Smyly gets to 5 2/3rds here.
Tough break. Announcer initially called it an HR. Hit about a foot below the yellow line. Keep it going.