Betting Talk

Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers

1…1415171920

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Oh really nice! thanks for the update
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    that is 12 straight losses at a 44.72% implied probability!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    you around ?? have a question for you ill email you
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    yes ok
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    sent ....thanks
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-28 SDQL Play
    Dbacks -164
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-28 Model Play
    Phillies -116
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    what are the chances of having 45% probability and having 13 straight losses?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    so pinny opened at -150 , you think they were that wrong on this game ?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I think they thought Nola would get more money but the Nationals are a big favorite of everyone and its hard to push a big line against them. I have philly -144
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    but dont you think they know that
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I also think that anytime anyone thinks they can get the Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers or Nats as dogs they bet it and that is probably in play on this line

    - - - Updated - - -
    jets96 wrote: »
    but dont you think they know that

    I think that line will still close around -130ish or even more fave
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-29 Model Plays
    Royals +194
    Royals O8 -101

    - - - Updated - - -

    and I was completely wrong it closed at -119 because the "sharps" cant let Nats as dogs go, they had to bet it !
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I dont get it how can the Royals be 7.5O at Pinny and BOL and 8O everywhere else, how can they be that far apart, I mean its like all places are at 8O and pinny and BOL are sitting 7.5O, Can someone clarify that for me?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I dont get it how can the Royals be 7.5O at Pinny and BOL and 8O everywhere else, how can they be that far apart, I mean its like all places are at 8O and pinny and BOL are sitting 7.5O, Can someone clarify that for me?

    Not a big difference between 7.5 OV -123 and 8 OV -115(BM is at 8 -110 which is pretty much = 7.5 OV -125)
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    StevieY wrote: »
    Not a big difference between 7.5 OV -123 and 8 OV -115(BM is at 8 -110 which is pretty much = 7.5 OV -125)

    Yeah, I've got the 8.0 to 7.5 worth 17 cents
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    so Pinny 8O is at what right now?

    - - - Updated - - -

    so 8O is at pinny at -103 right now

    - - - Updated - - -

    it just looks bigger I guess and pissed me off cause I think it should go up more and I am kinda new to the O/U game
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so Pinny 8O is at what right now?

    - - - Updated - - -

    so 8O is at pinny at -103 right now

    - - - Updated - - -

    it just looks bigger I guess and pissed me off cause I think it should go up more and I am kinda new to the O/U game

    over 8 -103 would be a slightly better value than over 7.5 -123
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-29 SDQL Play
    Blue Jays -201
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-30 Model Plays
    Yankees +129
    Rangers -118

    - - - Updated - - -

    6-30 Model Plays
    Rangers U10+105

    - - - Updated - - -

    6-30 Model Play
    Reds U9.5 +100
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-30 Model Play
    Phillies -103
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    7-1 Model Play
    Dbacks -121
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    7-1 Model Play
    Marlins +106
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    7-1 Model Play
    Phillies U9 +104
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    SDQL Record Before 7-1 Plays
    26-20 56.5%
    avg line 64.52%
    Units -14.7
    CLV .10%

    - - - Updated - - -

    Model Record before 7-1 plays
    66-75 46.81%
    Units -6.1
    avg line 48.56%
    CLV .32%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-1 SDQL play
    Toronto -195
  • PredatorPredator Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    dan... whats ur line on the laa/balt game? i have laa-119 and line is other way and going up!. line smells i think
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think line wise Gausman and Mcguire are pretty close so 30 cents favorite for Gausman at home is probably close to right but I dont have enough game data for Mcguire to actually do the game myself because I dont use implied probability to model I use comparative analysis.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Predator wrote: »
    dan... whats ur line on the laa/balt game? i have laa-119 and line is other way and going up!. line smells i think
    you were right they jumped on that Baltimore sucks train at the last moment and pushed it down
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think line wise Gausman and Mcguire are pretty close so 30 cents favorite for Gausman at home is probably close to right but I dont have enough game data for Mcguire to actually do the game myself because I dont use implied probability to model I use comparative analysis.

    Dan if you think Deck McGuire and Gausmann are pretty close in talent you need to make some changes in how you look at things. Gausmann may be an under achiever this year but even that is far better than McGuire.
Sign In or Register to comment.