2016 Presidential Election & Primaries
TommyL
Super Moderator
Wanted to start up some discussion on the election. However, this isn't a thread to give your political views, argue about the performance of current or past presidents, etc. Let's keep this to things related to polls, gambling, projections, etc. If we get into personal attacks (for whatever reason, some have trouble talking politics without getting personal), this thread will be locked.
Here are a few good links to start...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/
(and my personal favorite that I've read recently)...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/
Here are a few good links to start...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/
(and my personal favorite that I've read recently)...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/
Comments
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html
What are the thoughts here? Those new numbers are tough to ignore, and are keeping me away from fading him at this time. Does he really have a chance here, or will those poll numbers inevitably drop?
2) the closer to the election the more the old guard GOP will try their damnedest to shoot down The Donald, as they believe he can't possibly win the general election. And, they are most likely right, as can't see him stealing many black or hispanic votes. And, most independents will view him as too radical.
I would think in a few months you'd get better odds on the NO.
I agree 100%, the GOP knows Trump can't win a general election. Just my opinion, but I think Rubio is the only one among the front runners who has a chance against Hillary. If I was betting this stuff, I would find the best number I could on Rubio to win the primary, and I would have no qualms about fading Trump
Did you follow the 2012 election, or the 2008 election for that matter? (I can only assume it's a "no", based on your response)
He made me some $ in 2016 with his projections.
Is there any basis of fact, any links, or anything to support this other than your opinion?
Bookmaker 5k market
So you're saying you lost money in 2008 and 2012? He was ahead of everyone in both elections
The Terrorist activity is helping Hilary
I really don't like to bet against speed horses(DT). Mainly now because the overall conditions are murky. Wait'in and see'in in regards to homeland security and any surprise vetting info.
As far a Railbird's Hillary slam...........he's gotta point. According to the latest Gallup Poll that I looked at her favorabilty rating is atta all time low for her @41%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/185324/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-one-worst.aspx
It's going to be Hillary vs Rubio
Hillary wins...
Think your correct. I bet Hillary some time ago at -110 for Pres. & -150 to get nomination.
Never know
I like a prop that Hillary doesn't win second term in 2020, but doubt it exists... Republican will win election in 2020.
The 5Dimes line on Hillary to win Iowa (-210) seems a little short based on Silver's current numbers (83% using his full forecast, or 70% using only polls), especially since it beats BM's no-vig line of -213 (currently -260/+195 with vig). Still only a $100 limit though (at least for me).
Trump obviously continues to gain steam, down to +163 at BM to get the Republican nod (and -180 on the "no" at 5D). Some interesting stuff from Silver this afternoon (link below) on the fact that the establishment of the Republican party seems to be even more anti-Cruz than anti-Trump. If you had told me 4-6 months ago that I'd be able to get Trump at -180 at some point to not get the nod, I would have been giddy. But with the way things keep trending, I'm passing as it's becoming a real possibility that Trump will be on the ballot in November.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
He seems have both democratic and republican views on how to handle things, which from my bipartisan vantage point, seems to be what this country desperately needs. I liked his demeanor and assertiveness. He's a guy I could flip on the radio, listen to a speech and really believe it doesn't feel forced or scripted.
Cools, he hadda evolve and survive that way being a Red Guy in a Blue state. I have no problem with him either. The party has a problem with his occasional fabrication of the truth. Fact-checkers have verified this.
From what I see here, it really depends on how you interpret the data. If you're looking at all eligible voters, then you're correct. If you're looking at those that actually voted in the last caucus, then Hillary is still up and Trump/Cruz are neck and neck...
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html
This is what i have seen. Southeast Iowa has a boatload of Cruz support. Most think Trump is an idiot. Fairly conservative state. Take Cruz. Hillary seems to be popular in the iowa city area. Those would be my best guess on who takes Iowa.
You sure you're not looking at the Iowa Cascus odds? He's -125 to win the nomination at 5D and +118 at BM.