Pretty obvious RAS has lost whatever edge they once had. Throw in the fact that the service is going to end up costing close to $7,500 and the number of early "wins" that customers likely lost and it has been a debacle of epic proportions.
seems like they can still beat totals at the very least, no?
Pretty obvious RAS has lost whatever edge they once had. Throw in the fact that the service is going to end up costing close to $7,500 and the number of early "wins" that customers likely lost and it has been a debacle of epic proportions.
They are on pace for over 500 plays, so that would cost $9000 if you bought 1000 at a time. Let's say 1% of the time (5 plays) the customer doesn't get the line and either pushes or loses, when RAS wins the plays. That would be a difference of let's say 5-10 units give or take. That would mean $1000/unit bettor would realistically have to win between 14-20 units just to break even.
I ran out of credits on Wednesday of this week and didn't re-up. (Thankfully). This is hands down the worst CBB season we've ever had once you factor in everything. This is way worse then 2011 I think it was where we lost for the year. Once you factor in the cost of service, number of games that have fallen on the number or within 1 or 2 points, and the sheer amount of crazy ups and downs, this is by far the most brutal CBB season I've ever been a part of.
February is a brutally difficult month in cbb...even for the best of the best
Helmut and BG are doing just fine. Hovering yes, but not dropping. Noticed Helmut has played quite a few less plays recently. Ed's not gonna tone things back like that when they're down so much.
They are on pace for over 500 plays, so that would cost $9000 if you bought 1000 at a time. Let's say 1% of the time (5 plays) the customer doesn't get the line and either pushes or loses, when RAS wins the plays. That would be a difference of let's say 5-10 units give or take. That would mean $1000/unit bettor would realistically have to win between 14-20 units just to break even.
ras don't know they gonna win 14-20 unit for the package before the season start to win 14 -20 unit to break even that just crazy.
Helmut and BG are doing just fine. Hovering yes, but not dropping. Noticed Helmut has played quite a few less plays recently. Ed's not gonna tone things back like that when they're down so much.
Obviously, BG is facing short term variance and confident he will bounce back with tourney/March Madness around corner..with Public movement more prevalent. Helmut hasn't faded at all, truly special year.
He's also been playing into Helmuts plays on some of those and vice versa. He caught a couple bad breaks this week. Crazy part is there's another fella moving lines much more than those two.
It's been a bad 25 days, and we've certainly had our share of bad luck during it. Our demise or "loss of edge" has been predicted incorrectly for years, and we're huge favorites to prove that notion wrong again going forward.
We'll probably start looking more at releasing full game plays earlier in the day. March is a new month. Still lots of opportunities left.
It's been a bad 25 days, and we've certainly had our share of bad luck during it. Our demise or "loss of edge" has been predicted incorrectly for years, and we're huge favorites to prove that notion wrong again going forward.
We'll probably start looking more at releasing full game plays earlier in the day. March is a new month. Still lots of opportunities left.
I guess I can agree with the bad luck part of it. I just have a couple questions. 1. What is the deal with the first half option? Since the 1st half option went up not a single play has been released in that format. Do you anticipate having quite a few more plays this season considering it is towards the end? Is there anything that is going to be done to "ease" the pain of this month, as one of the above posters put it?
Long time lurker and follower of RAS and related cappers. Have never subscribed to the service but I do follow the plays to see how the service is doing.
This is my first year wagering college basketball, although I have had a lot of success in other sports. I use a strictly mathematical approach to handicapping. I have done very well on totals, and reasonably well on sides. As I have had a poor season in hockey, particularly totals which have been worse than awfuI, this has been favorable for me. I typically bet overnights/6am on sides and whenever the limits hit max on totals in the morning.
Early-mid season I was with the service on many plays, usually getting a better number on the play as my play does move the board, but the RAS initial number was still a strong winning play in my opinion. On totals, I am almost sure you will be a winner probably for a good ROI that would justify the cost of the service if you can get the RAS number. I actually think they have ran bad on totals, at least the games I have been with them they have lost to several unusual finishes such as multiple OTs, no score in the last minute, etc. More recently I have actually faded several RAS plays but this has only been after the line move; I would not have been interested in the play at the initial number, and the results have been mixed anyway so I can say nothing there.
On sides, I am not sure the plays are winning or not, particularly late season. Personally I find very, very little value day of game on sides and think they have a really tough job. Having to lay -110 at a widely available number is just brutal, these lines are just not that soft. Of the money I have made on sides, almost all has been due to CLV/getting down early on plays that moved where I would not have liked the play at the closing number. In particular the last couple of weeks numbers have been very tough on both sides and totals. I have been playing only about 1/3 as many games I was playing in early-mid January and of those plays, most have been plays where there was barely enough value to bet, whereas there were far more high-value plays earlier on. Particularly after the juicy numbers get taken out overnight, almost all the games have no value and those that do are often major injury/coaching/play style change or other unusual circumstance type games where I typically simply pass on the game. It seems to me like a lot of the RAS plays fit this type of theme (ride or fade these types of events), but I have no personal knowledge of their handicapping methodology, this is just speculation on my part.
I guess I can agree with the bad luck part of it. I just have a couple questions. 1. What is the deal with the first half option? Since the 1st half option went up not a single play has been released in that format. Do you anticipate having quite a few more plays this season considering it is towards the end? Is there anything that is going to be done to "ease" the pain of this month, as one of the above posters put it?
We just haven't released any 1h plays yet, but thought adding the option was a good idea. I'm sure will come in handy at some point.
I'd guess somewhere in the range of 50-100 plays in March.
Today we are going to send out a special public offer for unlimited credits for March, and even a better deal for all current subscribers.
Why send out a public offer? If anything, it will only make the current subscribers have a harder time acquiring your numbers and ultimately have a harder time recovering from the results in February.
I know (hope) it won't have the same impact as the free trial that you did at the start of the season, I just think this is a really poor time to do public offer (not that I think there's ever a correct time).
I get the whole "trying to get more people to try the service", but shouldn't the focus be to help the season-long subscribers who lost a lot in February? Giving out an offer to have more people try the service will only hurt those individuals.
I understand the sentiment, but this offer won't have anything remotely close to the impact on line movement (if any at all) that the free trial did. The service is always open to the public, and offering a special rate for March is fairly normal for us.
I know it won't have the same impact, but it will still have one, and it doesn't help your current subscribers who just lost a lot this month - it does the opposite. But, you're right, the service is always open to the public, and if someone is looking to subscribe, they just should. They shouldn't require a special offer to do so.
The main problem is that you're giving out a special offer to the public after your current subscribers just lost ~-20 units. When you offered a special those previous years, this wasn't the case. Small impact or not, this will only hurt current subscribers and that's the last thing you should be looking to do.
We just haven't released any 1h plays yet, but thought adding the option was a good idea. I'm sure will come in handy at some point.
I'd guess somewhere in the range of 50-100 plays in March.
Today we are going to send out a special public offer for unlimited credits for March, and even a better deal for all current subscribers.
Why not do unlimiteted credit package before season start after subscriber pay ov 8k now open that for public current subscriber don't need that at all.
Comments
seems like they can still beat totals at the very least, no?
They are on pace for over 500 plays, so that would cost $9000 if you bought 1000 at a time. Let's say 1% of the time (5 plays) the customer doesn't get the line and either pushes or loses, when RAS wins the plays. That would be a difference of let's say 5-10 units give or take. That would mean $1000/unit bettor would realistically have to win between 14-20 units just to break even.
Helmut and BG are doing just fine. Hovering yes, but not dropping. Noticed Helmut has played quite a few less plays recently. Ed's not gonna tone things back like that when they're down so much.
It all depends. Some people do better in November, some people do better in February.
ras don't know they gonna win 14-20 unit for the package before the season start to win 14 -20 unit to break even that just crazy.
BG is 1-9 last 10..I would say drop off
He's also been playing into Helmuts plays on some of those and vice versa. He caught a couple bad breaks this week. Crazy part is there's another fella moving lines much more than those two.
I have BG 3-6-1 last 10 since 2-20.
Where are his two wins? Over Portland that's it.
Who's other fella?
actually i heard 4 Jan - 19 Jan is the toughest, then 23 Nov to 29 Nov is the 2nd toughest times to win.
my guess is j2037 and the early morning releases
We'll probably start looking more at releasing full game plays earlier in the day. March is a new month. Still lots of opportunities left.
Monday 2-20Tex Arl/Ga. South over 151.5 ended 152 but the line went up to 158, and on tues Ind/ Iowa over 156.
Those are prior to last 10
I guess I can agree with the bad luck part of it. I just have a couple questions. 1. What is the deal with the first half option? Since the 1st half option went up not a single play has been released in that format. Do you anticipate having quite a few more plays this season considering it is towards the end? Is there anything that is going to be done to "ease" the pain of this month, as one of the above posters put it?
This is my first year wagering college basketball, although I have had a lot of success in other sports. I use a strictly mathematical approach to handicapping. I have done very well on totals, and reasonably well on sides. As I have had a poor season in hockey, particularly totals which have been worse than awfuI, this has been favorable for me. I typically bet overnights/6am on sides and whenever the limits hit max on totals in the morning.
Early-mid season I was with the service on many plays, usually getting a better number on the play as my play does move the board, but the RAS initial number was still a strong winning play in my opinion. On totals, I am almost sure you will be a winner probably for a good ROI that would justify the cost of the service if you can get the RAS number. I actually think they have ran bad on totals, at least the games I have been with them they have lost to several unusual finishes such as multiple OTs, no score in the last minute, etc. More recently I have actually faded several RAS plays but this has only been after the line move; I would not have been interested in the play at the initial number, and the results have been mixed anyway so I can say nothing there.
On sides, I am not sure the plays are winning or not, particularly late season. Personally I find very, very little value day of game on sides and think they have a really tough job. Having to lay -110 at a widely available number is just brutal, these lines are just not that soft. Of the money I have made on sides, almost all has been due to CLV/getting down early on plays that moved where I would not have liked the play at the closing number. In particular the last couple of weeks numbers have been very tough on both sides and totals. I have been playing only about 1/3 as many games I was playing in early-mid January and of those plays, most have been plays where there was barely enough value to bet, whereas there were far more high-value plays earlier on. Particularly after the juicy numbers get taken out overnight, almost all the games have no value and those that do are often major injury/coaching/play style change or other unusual circumstance type games where I typically simply pass on the game. It seems to me like a lot of the RAS plays fit this type of theme (ride or fade these types of events), but I have no personal knowledge of their handicapping methodology, this is just speculation on my part.
We just haven't released any 1h plays yet, but thought adding the option was a good idea. I'm sure will come in handy at some point.
I'd guess somewhere in the range of 50-100 plays in March.
Today we are going to send out a special public offer for unlimited credits for March, and even a better deal for all current subscribers.
I know (hope) it won't have the same impact as the free trial that you did at the start of the season, I just think this is a really poor time to do public offer (not that I think there's ever a correct time).
I get the whole "trying to get more people to try the service", but shouldn't the focus be to help the season-long subscribers who lost a lot in February? Giving out an offer to have more people try the service will only hurt those individuals.
The main problem is that you're giving out a special offer to the public after your current subscribers just lost ~-20 units. When you offered a special those previous years, this wasn't the case. Small impact or not, this will only hurt current subscribers and that's the last thing you should be looking to do.
Why not do unlimiteted credit package before season start after subscriber pay ov 8k now open that for public current subscriber don't need that at all.