Betting Talk

Buffettgambler Discussion Thread

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  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Do what you guys want I just wanted ya to know I don't have any faith on a team thats already had their bags packed for quite some time now

    why would these freshman have their bags packed already and not be excited for this opportunity to play a final game against a team that may win the nat'l championship? all that logic again is great and i appreciate the insight but its like your in the minds of the players by saying they packed it in already... i assume you have a thick play on TCU?
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    newcombe wrote: »
    why would these freshman have their bags packed already and not be excited for this opportunity to play a final game against a team that may win the nat'l championship? all that logic again is great and i appreciate the insight but its like your in the minds of the players by saying they packed it in already... i assume you have a thick play on TCU?

    As I said in a previous post it's a no play for me, I'm not betting against my team. Have you heard how many kids are transferring? Have you heard how many recruits we've lost the last two weeks? Your not that far away over in Huskerville, surely you have. I agree the freshman will play hard but you don't see the athletes week in and week out. Some of these kids wouldn't be third string at TCU
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    This number on the Iowa St/TCU game, by kickoff, is going to be 7 points higher than it should be. The number should be around -28 IMO. TCU's big win last week vs Texas (benefiting from 6 TO's) and the assumption that they are going to pour it on is only going to increase the number moving forward.

    Value is value in my opinion. Whether you're betting a bad team or not. The number is too high at this point. I took Iowa St as well.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    nothing for nothing , my line is tcu 32....i think they still cover but just to close a call right now for me personally .

    luck
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Iowa State line now at 35.5 on Bovada and 35 everywhere else
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Iowa State line now at 35.5 on Bovada and 35 everywhere else

    the more points the merrier. :D
    Just in case anyone forgot what happened during last years bowls. 80% of lines that moved in a big way Lost. There where tons of Bitch threads on this forum during last year's bowl season. Now I'm not saying the same will happen again, but you never know.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Iowa State line now at 35.5 on Bovada and 35 everywhere else

    Looks like +55 might not be enough. I missed on this game bad.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Need I say more.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Need I say more.
    big pat on the back. knew this was coming if the result is what it is... wonder if you would've said a word if the game would've gone the other way. never know i guess... you should've followed your heart and thoughts on this one brother.
  • winner_13winner_13 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    He has not been getting CLV his last couple of selections.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    newcombe wrote: »
    big pat on the back. knew this was coming if the result is what it is... wonder if you would've said a word if the game would've gone the other way. never know i guess... you should've followed your heart and thoughts on this one brother.

    Had you guys been right I absolutely wouldve given propd where they were due. I was trying to help thats all.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Cpech,

    I respect your knowledge of Ia. sports. But, please little brother spare us from the "been there, know that" old salt stuff. I was gonna pull up an old thread that was deleted around All-Star break. I'll just leave it there. I guess you mean well.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    was a good call on you part sir. well done.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Cpech,

    I respect your knowledge of Ia. sports. But, please little brother spare us from the "been there, know that" old salt stuff. I was gonna pull up an old thread that was deleted around All-Star break. I'll just leave it there. I guess you mean well.

    Did I say been there done that? You're the one implying that. Good god do you really have nothing better to do? I've provided winners on three plays this week involving Iowa State. Just because your on the other side bc BG's on it doesnt mean you 1. Have to be a bitch about it. And 2. I'm entitled to share my opinion on games as well. It's easy for someone like yourseld to talk shit when your not openly admitting what side your on for games.

    I'm not sitting here telling people how to bet. I provided numerous posts pointing out why I wouldnt touch ISU. That's a matter of opinion not me saying your idiots. I forgot I'm suppose to bow down to you Ron because your a "grizzly'd Veteran" if I asked for your advice then told you to fuck yourself on your suggestions, I'd understand where your coming from.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    cpech56 wrote: »
    I'm not sitting here telling people how to bet.
    Paraphrasing a deleted post from you @ All-Star break. "Don't worry about -27units it's only July. He can make that up in a month. ' Followed by a suggestion to keep firing. That's telling people how to bet.
    Let me try some military jargon to get my point across.......A Lance Corporal doesn't preach to the platoon. It's not about sides or picks. That's all!
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Paraphrasing a deleted post from you @ All-Star break. "Don't worry about -27units it's only July. He can make that up in a month. ' Followed by a suggestion to keep firing. That's telling people how to bet.
    Let me try some military jargon to get my point across.......A Lance Corporal doesn't preach to the platoon. It's not about sides or picks. That's all!

    Please provide the link so I can look more into what your referencing. Regardless, of all the things posted here to nit pick on my contributions seems a bit busch league. But understandable coming from you.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    And you can't delete posts so unless I have some moderating powers that only your aware of then I have zero idea of what your talking about.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Okay so I just read through the last couple of pages and I don't see why you guys are giving Cpech a hard time. All he said was he thought ISU was in big trouble today and he wouldn't recommend playing them, that's all. Maybe he could have left out the I told you so post, but there was a discussion regarding a play BG gave out that happened to be the team Cpech follows, and he thought they weren't a good play. Ron, I'm assuming you lost with them, so it's understandable if you're frustrated, but take it out on the guy who gave you the play, not the one who advised against it
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Kane, Wtf ru talking about? I'm not involved with any CFB 2day. This has nothing to do with IaSt or TCU. I'm sick of listening to 'gospel' from a rookie. I gave him his due on Ia. sports and the rest followed.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Kane, Wtf ru talking about? I'm not involved with any CFB 2day. This has nothing to do with IaSt or TCU. I'm sick of listening to 'gospel' from a rookie. I gave him his due on Ia. sports and the rest followed.

    Have another drink
  • winner_13winner_13 Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    What does everyone make of the lines today moving opposite of BG's picks?
  • WeirWeir Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    BG, luv ya man, but I bought GTech +3' earlier in the week & I gotta let it ride. Curious, since 3' has been available, why did you buy so late? Grate comeback last few weeks I must say
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Buffett, nice pick on Clev hopefully they cover. 12 min to kick off and I have a question on this prop

    J Manziel passing yards
    O 195½ +120

    J.Gordon receiving yards
    O 57½ -115
    J.Cameron receiving yards
    O 32½ -115
    Those 2 receivers combine for 100 yds, so who will he pass to for the other 95.5 yards ?
  • WeirWeir Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    BG, does this Marshall line move bother you? Or will you be popping it again?
  • WeirWeir Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    BG, Rice still good under a fg?

    Merry Christmas to you & yours
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2014
    Apologies for not answering the last few questions pre-kickoff. Generally speaking, regarding a line move-against for CFB Bowl games, I am more discouraged with the suboptimal entry price than concerned with a potential revaluation. That held true with the Marshall/Northern Illinois game. There is a fair amount of recency bias hitting CFB lines the last month or so. Marshall's market pricing took a nose dive after their loss to Western Kentucky. Northern Illinois upward trending November valuation really took off with a decent book upgrading for their Bowling Green game. Both teams last game results gave the go-ahead for books to test another new price point with the 10.5 openers. I misjudged the markets tolerance to back recent form and mistimed this one. This was a bad match up for NI. At the very least, this should have closed at the upper-bound of the new price points towards Marshall way.

    At current price, Rice would be a small play or pass. At 3, its an easy pass.

    Merry Christmas.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    can burn block the fg?
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    okay scratch that, 1 FG to win in OT? :)
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    between the wisky total and now this baylor debacle... the tide has to turn. nice Mizzou W.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Does anyone have a record of BG's bowl plays? I don't tail him, I'm just curious, thanks
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