The underdog Oilers put up a good fight in St. Louis last night, but ended up losing 2-1. Good try!
RECORD:
Bets won = 55
Bets lost = 66
Profit = +4.50 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's plays based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Sabres (at +133 or 2.33) at Flyers
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at -141 or 1.71) vs Kings
2 STARS = Wild (at +136 or 2.36) at Coyotes
1 STAR = Senators (at +132 or 2.32) vs Predators
The Ottawa pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
The Sens have lost their previous two contests by 4-3 and 6-1 scores, so they did lose both games by allowing at least four goals.
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets (ROI = +10.4%).
Bets won = 58
Bets lost = 68
Profit = +5.89 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Wild (at +115 or 2.15 odds) vs Maple Leafs
2 STARS = Hurricanes (at -167 or 1.60 odds) vs Canadiens
2 STARS = Coyotes (at -105 or 1.95 odds) vs Blues
1 STAR = Blackhawks (at +165 or 2.65 odds) at Flames
The Edmonton pick is rated 5 stars because it meets the criteria for betting of three systems at a time: "The Stingy Goalies", "The Blowout" and "The Hot Teams Matchup".
Oh yeah! Both picks won yesterday, including the 5-star play where the Oilers pulled off a great upset in Toronto! :clapup:
RECORD:
Bets won = 63
Bets lost = 70
Profit = +10.08 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Senators (@ +267 or 3.67 odds, at Capitals)
2 STARS = Canucks (@ +187 or 2.87 odds, at Lightning)
2 STARS = Islanders (@ -119 or 1.84 odds, at Devils)
2 STARS = Rangers (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Avalanche)
1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, at Panthers)
1 STAR = RedWings (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Canadiens)
As of 7 am Eastern Time, only Bet365 has odds on Coyotes-Panthers and Canadiens-RedWings so the odds above came from this sportsbook.
The Rangers pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle. There are two different sets of criteria for betting under this strategy, one of them being as follows:
"Bet a home team coming off 3+ straight losses when facing a road team coming off 1-2 straight loss(es), only if the home team's money line is greater than 2.05 (which means we focus exclusively on underdogs)."
This system led to a 44.95-unit profit through 141 bets over the course of nine seasons (ROI = 31.9%). Such plays are seldom seen, so let's take advantage of it tonight!
Pretty lucrative day last night by winning 4 bets and losing 2, despite picking five underdogs out of six picks.
Yesterday's profit was 2.74 units. :clapup:
RECORD:
Bets won = 67
Bets lost = 72
Profit = +12.82 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = Jets (@ +167 or 2.67 odds, at Maple Leafs)
3 STARS = Flyers (@ +115 or 2.15 odds, vs Capitals)
3 STARS = Kings (@ +124 or 2.24 odds, vs Stars)
Both the Flyers and Kings are based on the exact same betting angles: "The Hot Scorers" and "The Porous Defense".
Let me remind you quickly what the latter is all about:
"Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight."
This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period.
Now, the Caps have scored 6, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them against Philly.
As for the Dallas Stars, they scored exactly 4 goals in each of their three games. For the same reasons, we are fading them at Los Angeles.
Another good day with a 2-1 record despite picking 3 underdogs. Last night's profit: +1.82 units. :yes:
RECORD:
Bets won = 69
Bets lost = 73
Profit = +14.64 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Kings (@ +245 or 3.45 odds, at Golden Knights)
2 STARS = Panthers (@ -143 or 1.70 odds, vs Canucks)
2 STARS = Devils (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Rangers)
1 STAR = Ducks (@ +122 or 2.22 odds, vs Stars)
"The Scoring Drought" betting system is backing two teams today: the Kings and the Devils. Here are the details of this strategy:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%). :clapup:
For example, the L.A. Kings lost their past two games by 2-1 and 4-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Profit = +14.79 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Ducks (@ +205 or 3.05 odds at 8:15 am with MyBookie, at Blues)
1 STAR = Hurricanes (@ +121 or 2.21 odds at 8:15 am with Pinnacle, at Capitals)
The Anaheim pick meets the criteria of three betting angles at a time: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup."
The super hot streak ended with two lost plays last night.
Let's roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track!
RECORD:
Bets won = 71
Bets lost = 78
Profit = +12.79 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Wild (@ +160 or 2.60 odds, at Penguins)
2 STARS = Kings (@ +240 or 3.40 odds, at Lightning)
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +130 or 2.30 odds, vs Bruins)
2 STARS = Avalanche (@ -141 or 1.71 odds, vs Stars)
2 STARS = Predators (@ -116 or 1.86 odds, at Oilers)
1 STAR = Sabres (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Golden Knights)
1 STAR = Canucks (@ +117 or 2.17 odds, at Jets)
The Minnesota pick is based on the following three betting angles: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup".
Here are the details behind the latter strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, Minnesota is undergoing a three-game losing skid, while Pittsburgh is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Wild are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Yesterday was rough, as we lost 2.30 units, although we were 1 minute 15 seconds away from finishing the night with an overall gain.
Indeed, the Kings led 3-2 late in the third period, but Tampa tied the game with 1:15 left and won during the shootout.
Since the Kings were huge dogs whose odds were 3.40, we would have finished the night +1.10 instead of -2.30. Can't win them all! Let's rebound!
RECORD:
Bets won = 73
Bets lost = 83
Profit = +10.49 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Flyers (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Blues)
IMPORTANT!!! Here are some very interesting numbers!!!
1- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the star rating
If the pick was based on...
1 system (rated 1-2 star(s)): +23.58 units via 245 bets (ROI = +9.6%)
2 systems (rated 3-4 stars): -5.45 units via 80 bets (ROI = -6.8%)
3+ systems (rated 5 stars): +5.53 units via 28 bets (ROI = +19.8%)
The performance was disappointing when two betting angles recommend betting a given team, but things went pretty well when 3 systems or more supported the same team.
2- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the odds
If the odds were...
Up to -110 (i.e. 1.91 in decimal format): -6.98 units via 46 bets
Between -110 and +105 ("Even money plays"): +3.11 units via 35 bets
Between +105 and +130 ("Small dogs"): +13.69 units via 86 bets
Between +130 and +160 ("Moderate dogs"): +9.72 units via 92 bets
+160 or more ("Big dogs"): +4.12 via 94 bets
As suspected, betting favorites didn't do well.
All NHL system plays this season: +23.66 units via 353 bets (ROI = +6.7%)
If we had focused on underdogs only (the last three categories): +27.53 units via 272 bets (ROI = +10.1%)
I hope you enjoyed those breakdowns! Have a nice day!
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
Professor MJ
The lone system play from last night was a winner, as the Flyers upset the Blues at St Louis in overtime!
A quick anecdote for you (you'll see why it is of great interest to you in a short while):
I realized, at some point yesterday, that I had forgotten to place my own bet on Philly. I logged into my online accounts and found out the best line on the Flyers was no longer 2.50, but rather 2.75! I was thrilled!
Here's the important takeaway:
The lines I share with you are the best "morning" lines since I post in the morning.
Perhaps the "closing" lines tend to be bigger on our NHL system plays? My betting strategies mostly follow the contrarian approach, so we tend to bet unpopular teams (for example, teams whose offense has been cold lately, or teams who have allowed tons of goals recently, or are undergoing long losing skids, etc).
For this reason, maybe the lines have a tendency to increase during the day. Maybe, maybe not. I intend to log the best closing lines for all plays we made this season (which can be obtained via Covers.com) and see how they compare to my morning lines.
Once I'm done, I'll calculate two things:
1) The proportion of games where the closing lines were bigger than the morning lines (for the system plays we made).
2) The updated profit (how much money would we have made if we had waited just before games started to place our bets?).
Obviously, I'll be happy to share the findings with you when I'm finished digging the data! We'll see if betting later during the day is more advantageous to us or not.
RECORD:
Bets won = 74
Bets lost = 83
Profit = +11.99 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Kings (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Panthers)
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +125 or 2.25 odds, vs Hurricanes)
2 STARS = Ducks (@ +180 or 2.80 odds, at Predators)
1 STAR = Rangers (@ +151 or 2.51 odds, at Islanders)
1 STAR = Wild (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, vs Lightning)
1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +112 or 2.12 odds, at Canucks)
The betting strategies picked 6 underdogs last night.
Unbelievably, those plays went 4-2 for a huge 4.06-unit profit!
RECORD:
Bets won = 78
Bets lost = 85
Profit = +16.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = RedWings (@ +208 or 3.08 odds, vs Penguins)
I already have the answer to the question I raised yesterday about "morning" versus "closing" lines:
41.2% of the time, closing line > morning line
43.2% of the time, morning line > closing line
15.5% of the time, remained the same
Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines.
In summary, it doesn't really matter whether we bet the morning lines or the closing lines with respect to the plays recommended by my betting systems. Good to know!
Profit = +13.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Jets (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Hurricanes)
1 STAR = Panthers (@ +108 or 2.08 odds, at Blackhawks)
The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting strategy.
Here are the details of this angle:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).
For example, the Jets lost their past two games by 5-2 and 7-1 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Today is the last day before the All-Star Break, and we have a couple of strong plays! :thumbup1:
RECORD:
Bets won = 79
Bets lost = 89
Profit = +13.13 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Jets (@ +160 or 2.60 odds, at Blue Jackets)
4 STARS = Red Wings (@ +230 or 3.30 odds, at Wild)
The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.
Notice that the Jackets have allowed just 3 goals over their past 5 games (including three shutouts), which is amazing! As a contrarian, we are betting against them.
As for Detroit, we backing them because of "The Scoring Drought" and also "The Cold Teams Matchup" angles.
The latter occurs pretty rarely. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. One of them is:
"Bet a road team coming off a losking skid of length 5+ when facing a home team that has lost exactly 1 straight game. Bet only if the road team has odds greater than 2.50 (i.e. +150 in American format)."
This system led to a 34.56-unit profit via just 44 bets over nine seasons. The 78.5% ROI is obviously astounding (:surprised:), but we're talking about a small sample size.
Still, the rationale behind the strategy makes sense to me (again, as a contrarian) so I personally like it.
I gotta hand it to you, Teacher. You go on a hiatus with 2 losers not included on the stack you're sitting on. +11 units is impressive although a short sample size, but you are also an excellent market timer. My probability guy tells me your 'systems' took the gas while on your sabbatical.
Profit = +11.13 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Coyotes (@ +121 or 2.21 odds, at Canadiens)
2 STARS = Panthers (@ +122 or 2.22 odds, at Flyers)
2 STARS = Lightning (@ -140 or 1.71 odds, at Blue Jackets)
The Coyotes and Panthers picks are both based on "The Scoring Drought" strategy.
Here are the details of this betting angle:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).
For example, the Panthers lost their past two games by 3-2 and 7-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
We had a profitable return to action yesterday by winning two picks out of three (profit = +0.92 unit).
RECORD:
Bets won = 81
Bets lost = 92
Profit = +12.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Rangers (@ 2.18 odds, at Jets)
5 STARS = Senators (@ 3.40 odds, at Avalanche)
2 STARS = Golden Knights (@ 1.69 odds, at Wild)
2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ 2.06 odds, at Oilers)
1 STAR = Flyers (@ 2.18 odds, at Islanders)
The Senators pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.
Here are the details behind the latter strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, Ottawa is undergoing a five-game losing skid, while Colorado is riding a four-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Sens are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Bad night yesterday, as we lost 2.82 units. Let's get back on our feet quickly!
RECORD:
Bets won = 82
Bets lost = 96
Profit = +9.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +133 or 2.33 odds, at Canucks)
1 STAR = Canadiens (@ +185 or 2.85 odds, at Bruins)
The Montreal pick is backed by "The Big Upset" strategy:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."
Boston's last game was a 3-1 loss in Detroit, a huge upset. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Bruins tonight (since Montreal is NOT a big favorite today).
Profit = +7.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Washington Capitals (@ 2.21 odds, at Avalanche)
4 STARS = Edmonton Oilers (@ 2.70 odds, at Lightning)
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ 1.91 odds, at Sabres)
2 STARS = Senators (@ 2.21 odds, vs Coyotes)
2 STARS = Blues (@ 2.34 odds, at Golden Knights)
1 STAR = Stars (@ 2.22 odds, at Maple Leafs)
1 STAR = Rangers (@ 2.27 odds, at Wild)
The Senators pick is backed by "The Cold Teams Matchup" strategy. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. Here is the one that applies to tonight's matchup:
"Bet a home underdog if it has lost at least 3 straight games and facing a team that has lost 1-2 game(s) in a row."
This system led to 44.95-unit gains over a nine-year period (through 141 bets).
Ottawa is indeed a home underdog and they have lost 6 straight games, while Arizona has lost one game in a row. According to the criteria above, we are backing the Sens tonight!
i like the ducks as well, that being said, I don't think +170 was available at time of your post.
Yes. As you can see on Covers.com the line was -186 on Calgary at Pinnacle at the time of my post. That means about +166 on the Ducks. However, William Hill had +170. I'm always taking the better among Pinnacle, Bet365, Bookmaker, MyBookie and William Hill.
Too bad the Ducks blew a 3-1 lead... Thanks for sharing!
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Tuesday February 18
We are going through a slump, but thank God we had room for error.
It's time to rebound!
RECORD:
Bets won = 88
Bets lost = 106
Profit = +6.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +131 or 2.31 odds, at Flyers)
This play is backed by "The Scoring Drought" strategy, whose details have been unveiled in a recent post.
Note: the Hurricanes meet the criteria for betting under "The Stingy Goalies" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Nashville. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.
Comments
The underdog Oilers put up a good fight in St. Louis last night, but ended up losing 2-1. Good try!
RECORD:
Today's plays based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Ottawa pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
The Sens have lost their previous two contests by 4-3 and 6-1 scores, so they did lose both games by allowing at least four goals.
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets (ROI = +10.4%).
Cheers!
Professor MJ
Refund for good tries? LOL. Edmonton hadda 2man advantage in the last 2 minutes and failed. Sell that to your 'students'.
3-1 last night, including two underdogs for a 2.39-unit profit. Let's keep it up, fellows!
RECORD:
Today's lone system play based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
This pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle that I told you about yesterday.
Have a great weekend, hockey fans!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 58
Bets lost = 68
Profit = +5.89 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
5 STARS = Wild (at +115 or 2.15 odds) vs Maple Leafs
2 STARS = Hurricanes (at -167 or 1.60 odds) vs Canadiens
2 STARS = Coyotes (at -105 or 1.95 odds) vs Blues
1 STAR = Blackhawks (at +165 or 2.65 odds) at Flames
Happy New Year!!!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Bets won = 61
Bets lost = 69
Profit = +8.09 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = RedWings (at Stars @ +270 or 3.70 odds)
Best of luck, folks!
Professor MJ
Sorry I couldn't post on a regular basis during the Holidays. I had many plans with my family and we had a lot of fun.
I'll be back posting regularly for the second half of the regular season, let's finish strong!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Edmonton pick is rated 5 stars because it meets the criteria for betting of three systems at a time: "The Stingy Goalies", "The Blowout" and "The Hot Teams Matchup".
Let's see how it plays out!
Professor MJ
Oh yeah! Both picks won yesterday, including the 5-star play where the Oilers pulled off a great upset in Toronto! :clapup:
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Senators (@ +267 or 3.67 odds, at Capitals)
2 STARS = Canucks (@ +187 or 2.87 odds, at Lightning)
2 STARS = Islanders (@ -119 or 1.84 odds, at Devils)
2 STARS = Rangers (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Avalanche)
1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, at Panthers)
1 STAR = RedWings (@ +140 or 2.40 odds, vs Canadiens)
As of 7 am Eastern Time, only Bet365 has odds on Coyotes-Panthers and Canadiens-RedWings so the odds above came from this sportsbook.
The Rangers pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle. There are two different sets of criteria for betting under this strategy, one of them being as follows:
"Bet a home team coming off 3+ straight losses when facing a road team coming off 1-2 straight loss(es), only if the home team's money line is greater than 2.05 (which means we focus exclusively on underdogs)."
This system led to a 44.95-unit profit through 141 bets over the course of nine seasons (ROI = 31.9%). Such plays are seldom seen, so let's take advantage of it tonight!
Goooooood luck my sports investing friends!
Professor MJ
Pretty lucrative day last night by winning 4 bets and losing 2, despite picking five underdogs out of six picks.
Yesterday's profit was 2.74 units. :clapup:
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Both the Flyers and Kings are based on the exact same betting angles: "The Hot Scorers" and "The Porous Defense".
Let me remind you quickly what the latter is all about:
"Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight."
This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period.
Now, the Caps have scored 6, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them against Philly.
As for the Dallas Stars, they scored exactly 4 goals in each of their three games. For the same reasons, we are fading them at Los Angeles.
Best of luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
Another good day with a 2-1 record despite picking 3 underdogs. Last night's profit: +1.82 units. :yes:
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
"The Scoring Drought" betting system is backing two teams today: the Kings and the Devils. Here are the details of this strategy:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%). :clapup:
For example, the L.A. Kings lost their past two games by 2-1 and 4-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Cheers!
Professor MJ
5th straight day with a positive gain, thanks for a 2-2 record including the HUGE upset by the Kings in Vegas. :clapup:
RECORD:
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting system, which I explained in details yesterday.
Have a great weekend, hockey fans!!! :toast:
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Anaheim pick meets the criteria of three betting angles at a time: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup."
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
The super hot streak ended with two lost plays last night.
Let's roll up our sleeves and get back on the winning track!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Minnesota pick is based on the following three betting angles: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup".
Here are the details behind the latter strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, Minnesota is undergoing a three-game losing skid, while Pittsburgh is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Wild are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Yesterday was rough, as we lost 2.30 units, although we were 1 minute 15 seconds away from finishing the night with an overall gain.
Indeed, the Kings led 3-2 late in the third period, but Tampa tied the game with 1:15 left and won during the shootout.
Since the Kings were huge dogs whose odds were 3.40, we would have finished the night +1.10 instead of -2.30. Can't win them all! Let's rebound!
RECORD:
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
IMPORTANT!!! Here are some very interesting numbers!!!
1- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the star rating
If the pick was based on...
The performance was disappointing when two betting angles recommend betting a given team, but things went pretty well when 3 systems or more supported the same team.
2- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the odds
If the odds were...
As suspected, betting favorites didn't do well.
I hope you enjoyed those breakdowns! Have a nice day!
Professor MJ
Who was the benefactor of this data mined yield?
You have the tout whine down pretty well. What you excluded in the "wudda-shudda" was the Tampa tying goal taken off the board with 6 minutes left.
The lone system play from last night was a winner, as the Flyers upset the Blues at St Louis in overtime!
A quick anecdote for you (you'll see why it is of great interest to you in a short while):
I realized, at some point yesterday, that I had forgotten to place my own bet on Philly. I logged into my online accounts and found out the best line on the Flyers was no longer 2.50, but rather 2.75! I was thrilled!
Here's the important takeaway:
The lines I share with you are the best "morning" lines since I post in the morning.
Perhaps the "closing" lines tend to be bigger on our NHL system plays? My betting strategies mostly follow the contrarian approach, so we tend to bet unpopular teams (for example, teams whose offense has been cold lately, or teams who have allowed tons of goals recently, or are undergoing long losing skids, etc).
For this reason, maybe the lines have a tendency to increase during the day. Maybe, maybe not. I intend to log the best closing lines for all plays we made this season (which can be obtained via Covers.com) and see how they compare to my morning lines.
Once I'm done, I'll calculate two things:
1) The proportion of games where the closing lines were bigger than the morning lines (for the system plays we made).
2) The updated profit (how much money would we have made if we had waited just before games started to place our bets?).
Obviously, I'll be happy to share the findings with you when I'm finished digging the data! We'll see if betting later during the day is more advantageous to us or not.
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Let's gooooooooo!!
Professor MJ
The betting strategies picked 6 underdogs last night.
Unbelievably, those plays went 4-2 for a huge 4.06-unit profit!
RECORD:
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
I already have the answer to the question I raised yesterday about "morning" versus "closing" lines:
Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines.
In summary, it doesn't really matter whether we bet the morning lines or the closing lines with respect to the plays recommended by my betting systems. Good to know!
Have a very nice weekend my friends!
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Detroit pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota pick is backed by "The Hot Scorers" angle.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
We lost both plays last night. :idoit:
Let's rebound!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting strategy.
Here are the details of this angle:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).
For example, the Jets lost their past two games by 5-2 and 7-1 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
We made a very tiny profit last night.
Today is the last day before the All-Star Break, and we have a couple of strong plays! :thumbup1:
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.
Notice that the Jackets have allowed just 3 goals over their past 5 games (including three shutouts), which is amazing! As a contrarian, we are betting against them.
As for Detroit, we backing them because of "The Scoring Drought" and also "The Cold Teams Matchup" angles.
The latter occurs pretty rarely. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. One of them is:
"Bet a road team coming off a losking skid of length 5+ when facing a home team that has lost exactly 1 straight game. Bet only if the road team has odds greater than 2.50 (i.e. +150 in American format)."
This system led to a 34.56-unit profit via just 44 bets over nine seasons. The 78.5% ROI is obviously astounding (:surprised:), but we're talking about a small sample size.
Still, the rationale behind the strategy makes sense to me (again, as a contrarian) so I personally like it.
See you after the All-Star break!
Professor MJ
Yeah, I'm obsessed with calling out your BS.
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Coyotes and Panthers picks are both based on "The Scoring Drought" strategy.
Here are the details of this betting angle:
"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."
This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).
For example, the Panthers lost their past two games by 3-2 and 7-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.
Best of luck folks!
Professor MJ
We had a profitable return to action yesterday by winning two picks out of three (profit = +0.92 unit).
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Senators pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.
Here are the details behind the latter strategy:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, Ottawa is undergoing a five-game losing skid, while Colorado is riding a four-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Sens are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
Best of luck!
Professor MJ
Bad night yesterday, as we lost 2.82 units. Let's get back on our feet quickly!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Montreal pick is backed by "The Big Upset" strategy:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."
Boston's last game was a 3-1 loss in Detroit, a huge upset. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Bruins tonight (since Montreal is NOT a big favorite today).
Have a nice day! :clapup:
Professor MJ
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
The Senators pick is backed by "The Cold Teams Matchup" strategy. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. Here is the one that applies to tonight's matchup:
"Bet a home underdog if it has lost at least 3 straight games and facing a team that has lost 1-2 game(s) in a row."
This system led to 44.95-unit gains over a nine-year period (through 141 bets).
Ottawa is indeed a home underdog and they have lost 6 straight games, while Arizona has lost one game in a row. According to the criteria above, we are backing the Sens tonight!
Cheers!
Professor MJ
4-3 last night for a 1.91-unit profit. Let's keep it up!
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Happy Valentine's day everyone! :thumbup:
Professor MJ
Hey folks, I hope you had a nice weekend! :thumbup:
RECORD:
Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
Have a nice week fellows!
Professor MJ
Yes. As you can see on Covers.com the line was -186 on Calgary at Pinnacle at the time of my post. That means about +166 on the Ducks. However, William Hill had +170. I'm always taking the better among Pinnacle, Bet365, Bookmaker, MyBookie and William Hill.
Too bad the Ducks blew a 3-1 lead... Thanks for sharing!
- - - Updated - - -
NHL System Picks for Tuesday February 18
We are going through a slump, but thank God we had room for error.
It's time to rebound!
RECORD:
Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
This play is backed by "The Scoring Drought" strategy, whose details have been unveiled in a recent post.
Note: the Hurricanes meet the criteria for betting under "The Stingy Goalies" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Nashville. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.
Cheers!
Professor MJ