paddyboy111
paddyboy111 · Senior Member
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(Quote) I though it was excellent, the casting of non-actors went really well. The pacing was on point. I had a little trouble with Sandler as being too unafraid of physical threats. I recognize the feeling of having a hidden insight (Garnetts in…
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+900 on Demi Lovato wearing clear/no color on her nail polish is my favorite. I think she wears it on stage but when people are only seeing her on a screen there's less reason to show splashy colors.
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I'm working on a project at the moment, the IIHF World Championship. I find international tournaments in all sports are pretty easy to grab EV (especially when it is hard to gather homogeneous data). I found a pretty cool website (in French) that h…
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StackAttack, great stuff. 1. How did you get turned on to Astana, it seems super obscure. 2. What is your theory as to why there is EV in these bets? Is it that the bookie models don't have precedent to price hockey mismatches of this magnitude?
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September 24 Samoa - 30 over Russia September 23 Wales / Georgia under 51 previously posted Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit Rugby World Cup Outright Winner Ireland +725, 1 unit Spreads: 15-12 +1.68 Totals: 6-2, +3.80 M…
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I think you mean Pinncale has the Reds at +150 aka 3-2,not +250
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That ends the warmups, a couple weeks off until the World Cup, note there is some moneyline movement in my pending bets, but the South Africa future still seems available and I think has value. previously posted September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan -…
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September 7th Canada +10.5 over USA previously posted September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit September 22 Rugby World Cup South Africa + 12 over New Zealand September 22 World C…
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September 7th (going off in a few min) Ireland/Wales UNDER 43.5 September 6th (Friday afternoon ET) Italy +34.5 over England Scotland - 26.5 over Georgia Scotland/Georgia UNDER 55.5 Tonga +49.5 over New Zealand previously posted September 20 Rugby…
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September 6th (Friday afternoon ET) Italy +34.5 over England Scotland - 26.5 over Georgia Scotland/Georgia UNDER 55.5 Tonga +49.5 over New Zealand previously posted September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) Rugby World Cup Outright Winner S…
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August 31 Test Wales+1.5 over Ireland Wales/Ireland UNDER 45 Scotland/Georgia UNDER 46.5 previously posted September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit September 22 Rugby World Cup Sou…
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August 30 Test France v Italy UNDER 51.5 August 31 Test Tonga +16.5 (Note this game goes off just after midnight EST Friday night) previously posted September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +7…
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August 31 Philippines + 17.5 over Italy previously posted August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico Tunisia + 28 over Spain Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116) Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112) Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)…
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September 1 Japan + 14 over Turkey Tunisia +28.5 over Spain previously posted August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico Tunisia + 28 over Spain Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116) Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112) Iran/Puerto …
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August 24 Test Ireland + 7 over England previously posted August 24 Test France over Scotland +140 MONEYLINE, 1 unit September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit September 22 Rugby Wo…
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August 24 Lithuania/South Korea OVER 163 Germany/Japan UNDER 169 USA-13 (-115) over Australia previously posted August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico Tunisia + 28 over Spain Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116) Italy/Philipp…
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August 24 Turkey/Puerto Rico UNDER 154.5 Serbia -12 over Italy previously posted August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico Tunisia + 28 over Spain Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116) Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112) Iran/Pue…
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FACT: if you post a line that is 6% better than the fair line that is available your ROI will be approximately 600 bps higher than if you post the current line. --- Professor of Arithmetic
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NOTE: previous post's scoring had accounted for the Aug 17 Scotland moneyline loss to France but I forgot to delete it as a pending bet, which I've fixed here. August 24 Test France over Scotland +140 MONEYLINE, 1 unit previously posted September …
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August 22 Spain / Dominican Republic UNDER 158 -105 previously posted August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico Tunisia + 28 over Spain Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116) Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112) Iran/Puerto Rico UND…
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(Quote) I agree. I've ordered the accountant's report. I will be shocked if the accountant was hired in advance of this incredible run. My guess is that there is a rigorous time stamping system but the accountant was called after the fact to revi…
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Adding some picks: August 21 (goes off 6:30 EST on the 22nd) USA/Australia UNDER 176.5 -115 (my line is 170) August 31 Italy/Phillipines UNDER 154 (-112) (my line is 145) Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108) (my line is 139) previously posted Augus…
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Great stuff, ebemiss. I saw this FIBA link but it didnt have the info I need to calculate the tempo of a team for over/under purposes. It looks like it sometimes does. My model uses an ELO method, and with initial ELO scores set by the opening od…
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(Quote) Thanks ebemiss. This is dead-on the bookie lines. I'm curious were you able to find boxscore data for any of the warmup matches? I could not, it would be very helpful for totals modeling. My Venezuela line is now Venezuela + 5 after Pol…
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I'm going to use this thread to post my picks for the tournament. -110 or better where not specified, better is graded at -110. Bets to win one unit except where specified August 31 Venezuela + 12 over Poland (my line Venezuela + 2) Iran + 6 ove…
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Just updating the totals here, but a comment about my latest bet post. I earlier wrote "I think that Italy is going to win this match by 70 points" but deleted it to keep this page nice and clean. Wish I had wrote it after the final scor…
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September 20 Rugby World Cup Japan - 25.5 (-120) previously posted August 17 Scotland +205 over France, 1 unit Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit September 22 Rugby World Cup South Africa + 12 over New Zealand September 2…
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August 17 Italy - 22.5 over Russia -120 (SB) August 17 South Africa/Argentina UNDER 58.5 previously posted August 17 Scotland +205 over France, 1 unit Rugby World Cup Outright Winner South Africa +700, 1 unit September 22 Rugby World Cup South …
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In the late 1980s the NY Post had a $1K handicapping contest, you snail-mailed in your card and had to hit every Sunday game against the spread to win, otherwise the prize rolled over. The lines were stale so sometimes I'd get through the early gam…
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(Quote) I don't think you can get 150-1 or 200-1 on Pence easily. I agree if Trump stroked out tomorrow and Pence were an incumbent he'd be very attractive probably a 25%-35% shot at winning. But I think Pence would have a primary challenge if it…