Walt's Wharf
Walt's Wharf · Member
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(Quote) The assertion that Silver is biased is ridiculous. You are right on that. Silver has built his brand largely on his ability to predict the outcomes of elections, and aside from his one-time gut feel, he uses objective data to arrive at his …
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(Quote) Well, in fairness, you or I could probably get 90 of 100 right. Forty states are basically the same every year (either Republican or Democrat) and have been unchanged for at least four election cycles. So, 80 states are virtual giveaways...…
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Anybody with opinions on who wins Hawaii? Information is very scarce. Demographically, I would have thought that Trump was unlikely to win, but now am less convinced.
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(Quote) I was referring specifically to Trump's candidacy. He whiffed on Trump, badly and repeatedly, and then doubled down. Then he was wrong again, and again. Not the end of the world. Silver is still the first person I go to for politics/electi…
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Silver was obviously great in the 2012 election and his analysis is mostly great and should be trusted over just about any other source. Anybody following or betting the election will definitely benefit from reading his stuff. But he has been wrong.…
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Scanning through threads at SBR you'll see that some had payout issues or delays above 2k. But surely others have had problems at far lesser amounts. If TopBet is unable to help you, fill out a complaint at SBR with all the necessary details. As fo…
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I recall Silver saying Trump had somewhere in the neighborhood of a 1 percent chance. It might not have been on FiveThirtyEight, but I remember reading it somewhere, possibly on his Twitter account. He told Anderson Cooper that Trump had roughly a …
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They're attempting to verify your identity, which is SOP at most books and is actually a safeguard to help protect you. Try to make it clear with them that you don't have all the requested cards, and instead provide them with your driver's license, …
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(Quote) It seemed like a reasonable estimate, but not sure what you're getting at?
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Only 105 of 1925 lined games have gone to OT this year, and of those 105 games, 18 of them still went under in OT (including last night's Maryland-Northwestern game). So, 87 games (4.5%) with totals this year have had a possibility of being affected…
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Hard not to feel bad for the guy. We all do stupid things. He did a stupid thing. His stupid thing just happened to blow his hand off.
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Missouri 200/1 SEMO at Ark St Conn at Kentucky South Carolina Florida at Georgia at Vanderbilt BYE Miss St BYU Tennessee at Arkansas Realistic chance of being 6-0 entering the road game at Georgia. From there, they should beat Vandy before enterin…
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For what it's worth, Gruden isn't even listed as being on the hot seat on the Coaches Hot Seat site. An early firing will be a result of battling with the front office rather than anything that happens on the field imo. http://coacheshotseat.com/Co…
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AFC East - Philbin could get canned if the Dolphins start terrible. But they should contend for a playoff spot and be in that 8-8 to 10-6 range. Also, he's a super nice guy and respected by the FO. I think he survives the season. AFC South - Bradle…
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I'm not sure I buy the argument that winning bettors won't, can't or shouldn't participate on a panel like this. I think many would. But you'd have to change the panel from "How to win" to "How I used to get my ass kicked." That …
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Sportsbook had 153 past due payouts according to the SBR thread, which seems like a very high number. But it would be interesting to know how many overall players have requested payouts in the last six months or so. If 10,000 people requested payout…
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(Quote) You don't see the NCAA being open to betting? Wait until every college football stadium in the country has a DraftKings or FanDuel ad plastered on its video boards and along the sidelines. Oh, wait, I keep forgetting that DFS isn't betting.…
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If you type "online sportsbook" into Google, Sportsbook.ag is the #2 site to appear. Compared to other online books, they could have 25 times as many customers for all we know. If there's a substantial number of people wanting to deposit o…
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If individual states could operate their own sportsbooks, similar to lotteries, that would be very interesting. The offshore line on a Dolphins game could be Miami -2.5, and then in Florida, maybe you'd see some Dolphins -3.5's or something crazy. …
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Surely Tony will improve his record to 1407-0 with 1407 knockouts via live chat when this eventually gets "resolved."
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The Hilton's new book looks like it has a chance of being pretty amazing. Saw this tweeted out by Jay Kornegay the other day. http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=426622
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This idea is interesting but I'll be very surprised if they have success with it given their current business model. First, futures typically aren't very good bets to begin with given the outrageous hold percentages that some books have. Second, th…
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(Quote) Don't think I'd make too much of such a small sample, especially if your pitchers were performing well previously. But of course, you probably already know that.
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Forgot to reply to this yesterday. Good thread. I would say that DFS isn't yet to where Hold Em was in 2003. I would say the vast majority of people I know have heard of Daily Fantasy, but still haven't tried it, and still aren't sure how to play i…
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Thanks for posting these, very useful.
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Harvey & Gray today? Not really liking the SP options. As many as four games with possible rain today, so be on the lookout.
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The payouts at HotRoster sound pretty ridiculous. Aside from the 4-team payout of 10-1, everything is smaller than the sports betting parlay equivalent. I'm assuming that the matchups are pretty close to presumed 50-50 propositions? (Image)
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Wow ... (Quote) Considering ... (Quote) It's pretty interesting to see the growth of some of these sites and how quickly they were able to build something simply through strategic efforts. I would say that Victiv is a pretty awful name for a DFS s…
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Sorry if it's already been addressed, but have you considered playing only early or late games? It would help with your ability to confirm lineups, but perhaps that's not ideal and you'd rather have the full player pool.
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I'd like to play too if not too late. :laugh: