Betting Talk

danshan thread

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  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    we will never agree on this but just win the game
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    true very true
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    so really when i took dallas at -3 and now its -4.5 i should feel great that i had all that value if i lost ,
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    I’ve been dinking around with this query, trying to find some way to make money from it. It has an opinion on a couple the games you guys have listed today:

    https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=p%3AHL+and+A+and+rest+%3D+0+and+season+%3E%3D+2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    so the away teams are 14-21 ats ?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    they better start telling all those mavs backers, the line is now 5.5 .
    rook thanks for sharing , i have other subsets that give much better numbers
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    so the away teams are 14-21 ats ?

    Yes but the thing that draws me in like a fly to crap is straight up these teams are 6-29...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    I hear ya ..but i think there were more then four games this year when a road team on back to back is playing a team with rest

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    holly shit dan ....you did that spreadsheet for me , your the man dude , thank you so much , i owe dude ...where do i fill in team for college , i dont see that anywhere
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    so really when i took dallas at -3 and now its -4.5 i should feel great that i had all that value if i lost ,

    yes, imagine if you bet 100 games and got 1.5 pts extra per game, what your record would be
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    I hear ya ..but i think there were more then four games this year when a road team on back to back is playing a team with rest

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    holly shit dan ....you did that spreadsheet for me , your the man dude , thank you so much , i owe dude ...where do i fill in team for college , i dont see that anywhere

    its almost done and you fill it on on the tab College fill in scores
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    yes, imagine if you bet 100 games and got 1.5 pts extra per game, what your record would be

    Ha! Why don’t you tell us Mr. CLV?

    My guess would be just enough to beat the vig, i.e. 53%
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Dan , thank you , cant believe it , great job, thanks again i owe dude.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Ha! Why don’t you tell us Mr. CLV?

    My guess would be just enough to beat the vig, i.e. 53%

    Hornets +2 -105 51.22%

    Hornets +3.5 -139 58.16%

    looks pretty profitable to me, what do you think?

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    jets96 wrote: »
    Dan , thank you , cant believe it , great job, thanks again i owe dude.

    you can just continue to add teams as you need them on the list and click the run button
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    danshan wrote: »
    Hornets +2 -105 51.22%

    Hornets +3.5 -139 58.16%

    looks pretty profitable to me, what do you think?

    Very profitable when you cherry pick the most important 1.5 points that cross the 3 point margin of victory.

    Now how about across all spreads, as your statement implied?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    you tell me the number you want to cross and I will pull it up
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    avg line is -6 let me do +6 to +7.5

    +6 +108 48.08%
    +7.5 -120 54.55%
    rockets game tonight

    https://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/usa/nba/chicago-bulls-houston-rockets-0fRbPnem/#ah;1;7.50;0

    seems pretty profitable
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Yes, a little more profitable than I would have guessed. NBA games do land close to the lines with relative frequency.

    So you can make a good living off 1.5 points of CLV in the NBA.

    Unfortunately, you have zero chance of getting that. Zero. Even the best of the best can’t do that. There just isn’t enough CLV to be had in the NBA. Looks like you got -1/2 point of CLV on your play today. Good luck getting +3.5 points of CLV on your next play to average it out.

    You’re in the wrong sport if you want to live off CLV alone. Baseball possible. College basketball possible. WNBA possible. NBA no chance.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    I wont get that much CLV but I will get enough to be profitable, no doubt!

    the only fear I have is not getting enough plays to overcome variance
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited November 2019

    Great job jets96! To hell with that query. It’s never made me a penny...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    thanks rook , all those numbers are out there , you have to dream about other numbers that you hope others dont have

    any thoughts love port tonight -8.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    thanks rook , all those numbers are out there , you have to dream about other numbers that you hope others dont have

    any thoughts love port tonight -8.5

    I have 8 and zero bets today nothing looks good, I might start doing tomorrows just for some bets to have
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    BET
    Nuggets Under 221

    gonna try some totals yesterday and today the model numbers were good, so I will give it a shot today

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    BET
    Blazers Under 227.5

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    Record 1-3 I play only games close to ATS so I will just keep wins and losses
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    jets96 wrote: »
    thanks rook , all those numbers are out there , you have to dream about other numbers that you hope others dont have

    any thoughts love port tonight -8.5

    I have vowed to never bet Trailblazers pre-game because they are way better or way worse depending on what side of the bed Lillard wakes up on. They totally screwed me by losing to the Warriors the other day...
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    rook wrote: »
    I have vowed to never bet Trailblazers pre-game because they are way better or way worse depending on what side of the bed Lillard wakes up on. They totally screwed me by losing to the Warriors the other day...


    hey Rook how is your NBA season going?
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Right now I sit at 14 units up, but that could change in a heartbeat, as it did last Tuesday when I lost 8 units on Heat vs Nuggets. Can’t get any real traction going. Last two weeks in a row, I have lost badly on Monday-Tuesday, then spent the rest of the week catching back up.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    thats nice
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    sometimes its better to be lucky then good, i got 17 pts in Ot , thats got to be close to a record , am not complaining ...

    tor , minn and N.o for today once i get updates
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Dude, I had 2 unders line value was good and both went to overtime and still won 1

    Record 2-4

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    BET
    Spurs Under 224
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Why aee you wasting your time when you make guaranteed money with Jambos?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited November 2019
    Hey R40, I am killing line value in the NBA, I am gonna have a strong season!

    Jambos has been getting destroyed, have you seen their record lately?
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